Item 1A. Risk Factors.
You should carefully consider the following risk factors, in addition to the other information contained in this report, including the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”section and our consolidated financial statements and related notes. If any of the events described in the following risk factors and the risks described elsewhere in this report occurs, our business, operating results and financial condition could be seriously harmed. This report also contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements as a result of factors that are described below and elsewhere in this report. Our Risk Factors are not guarantees that no such conditions exist as of the date of this report and should not be interpreted as an affirmative statement that such risks or conditions have not materialized, in whole or in part.
Risks Related to Our Business and the Development of Our Drug Candidates
We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a limited operating history.
We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing small molecules engineered to restore neuronal health and slow neurodegeneration. Our limited operating history may make it difficult to evaluate the success of our business. Drug development is a highly uncertain undertaking and involves a substantial degree of risk. To date, we have not completed a pivotal clinical trial, obtained marketing approval for any drug candidate, manufactured a commercial scale drug candidate, or conducted sales and marketing activities necessary for successful drug candidate commercialization. Our history as a company makes any assessment of our future success and viability subject to significant uncertainty. We will encounter risks and difficulties frequently experienced by clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies in rapidly evolving fields, and we have not yet demonstrated an ability to overcome such risks and difficulties successfully. If we do not address these risks and difficulties successfully, our business will suffer.
We are currently focusing our efforts primarily on the development of ATH-1105 and we may fail to or be unable to design and execute clinical trials to support marketing approval of ATH-1105 or any other drug candidates we seek to develop. We cannot be certain that our current or planned clinical trials or any other future clinical trials will be completed on time or be successful. We cannot guarantee that the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities will agree with our study design, protocol or protocol amendments, or statistical plan, or that they will interpret clinical trial results as we do, and more clinical trials could be required before we are able to submit applications seeking approval of our drug candidates. To the extent that the results of the clinical trials are not satisfactory to the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities for support of a marketing application, we may be required to expend significant resources, which may not be available to us, to conduct additional clinical trials in support of potential approval of our drug candidates. Even if regulatory
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approval is secured for any of our drug candidates, the terms of such approval may limit the scope and use of our drug candidate, which may also limit its commercial potential.
Our approach to targeting neurotrophic factors through the use of small molecules is based on a novel therapeutic approach, which exposes us to unforeseen risks. We have limited data from preclinical studies and clinical trials to date, including for ATH-1105, and we cannot be certain that future trials will yield data in support of the safety, efficacy and tolerability of our drug candidates.
We have discovered and are developing a pipeline of small molecule drug candidates to treat neurodegenerative diseases. Our drug candidates target an endogenous neurotrophic factor which is expected to protect and repair neuronal networks, which we believe could ultimately result in improvements in clinical outcomes and disease-relevant biomarkers. The therapeutic promise of neurotrophic factors in neurodegenerative diseases had been hampered in earlier therapies by the lack of efficient and non-invasive delivery to the CNS. Our small molecule drug candidates are designed to penetrate the BBB and enhance the activity of a neurotrophic factor, but we cannot be certain of the safety and efficacy of our drug candidates in applicable patients or that our clinical trials will provide sufficient evidence that our design approach results in the intended therapeutic effect.
The primary and all secondary endpoints of our Phase 2 ACT-AD clinical trial of fosgonimeton in AD were not met by protocoled analysis. A subsequent post hoc analysis of the data in a pre-specified subgroup from patients on fosgonimeton without background AChEIs showed a meaningful, but not statistically significant, improvement in both ERP P300 latency and cognitive performance compared to placebo at 26 weeks. Although post hoc analyses cannot be used to establish efficacy, these analyses can be helpful in informing the design of current and future clinical studies. In addition, the primary endpoint of our Phase 2 SHAPE clinical trial in PDD and DLB was not met by protocoled analysis. Directionally positive results were observed for the 40 mg fosgonimeton dose group with improvements in cognitive, functional and biomarker measurements. In particular, the five patients in the modified intent to treat, or mITT, population treated with fosgonimeton 40 mg once daily saw improvement in ADAS-Cog13 individually, and collectively improved compared with placebo (n=7 mITT, one-sided p=0.0321). Results for patients in the 70 mg dose group were inconsistent.
The topline data from our Phase 2/3 LIFT-AD clinical trial of fosgonimeton in AD showed that neither the trial’s primary endpoint (the Global Statistical Test, or GST, a combination of results from measures of cognition (ADAS-Cog11) and function (ADCS-ADL23)) nor its key secondary endpoints of ADAS-Cog11 and ADCS-ADL23 reached statistical significance compared with placebo at 26 weeks. However, both components of GST, cognition (ADAS-Cog11) and function (ADCS-ADL23), directionally favored fosgonimeton treatment, and in pre-specified subgroups characterized by more rapid disease progression (moderate AD and APOE4 carriers), cognition and function improved or stabilized in the fosgonimeton treated group. In addition, data across biomarkers of protein pathology (Aβ42/40, p-Tau181, and p-Tau217), inflammation (GFAP) and neurodegeneration (NfL) showed directional improvements with fosgonimeton treatment that are consistent with the broad neuroprotective mechanism of HGF modulation. Based on these results, we decided to pause further development of fosgonimeton.
Following the readout of topline data from LIFT-AD, in September 2024 we announced our intention to focus on advancing the clinical development program for ATH-1105 as a potential treatment for ALS. We completed our first-in-human Phase 1 clinical trial in healthy volunteers evaluating the safety and tolerability of ATH-1105, in November 2024. The results of the Phase 1 clinical trial showed that ATH-1105 demonstrated a favorable safety profile and was well-tolerated in healthy volunteers, supporting continued clinical development.
We have limited evidence regarding the efficacy, safety and tolerability of ATH-1105 and other small molecules in our drug product pipeline. We or a future partner may ultimately determine that ATH-1105, or any of our other small molecules, does not possess certain properties required for therapeutic effectiveness.
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We or a future partner may spend substantial funds attempting to develop these drug candidates and never succeed in doing so.
Our development of ATH-1105 may never lead to a marketable product.
We are developing ATH-1105 as a small molecule aimed at restoring neuronal health. We have not received regulatory approval for ATH-1105 and cannot be certain that our approach will lead to the development of an approvable or marketable product, alone or in combination with other therapies.
Advancing ATH-1105 as a small molecule aimed at restoring neuronal health creates significant challenges for us or a future partner, including:
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obtaining marketing approval;
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if ATH-1105 is approved, educating medical personnel regarding the potential efficacy and safety benefits, as well as the challenges, of incorporating ATH-1105 into existing treatment regimens, including in combination with other treatments for ALS or as a monotherapy; and
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establishing the sales and marketing capabilities upon obtaining any marketing approvals to gain market acceptance.
Our prospects as a standalone business are highly dependent on the successful development of ATH-1105. Following the September 2024 announcement of topline results from the Phase 2/3 LIFT-AD clinical trial of fosgonimeton showing that neither the trial’s primary endpoint nor its key secondary endpoints were met, we announced our intention to focus on advancing the clinical development program for ATH-1105 as a potential treatment for ALS and other neurodegenerative diseases. Like fosgonimeton, ATH-1105 is a small molecule designed to positively modulate the HGF system. Although we are encouraged about the potential for ATH-1105 based on preclinical data, we or a future partner may decide to discontinue development of some or all of our product candidates, including if we or a future partner do not demonstrate the safety and efficacy of ATH-1105 in current and future clinical trials. We may pursue strategic alternatives to maximize stockholder value, which could involve, without limitation, exploring the potential for a possible merger, business combination, investment, a purchase, license or other acquisition of assets or return of capital to stockholders.
Our ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability depends significantly on our ability to achieve a number of objectives.
Our business depends entirely on the successful discovery, development and commercialization of our drug candidates. We have no drug products approved for commercial sale and do not anticipate generating any revenue from drug product sales for the next several years, if ever. Our ability to generate drug product revenue will depend heavily on the successful clinical development and eventual commercialization of ATH-1105 or any other drug candidates we may seek to develop. Our ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability depends significantly on our ability to achieve a number of objectives, including:
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successful and timely completion of nonclinical and clinical development of our drug candidates and any future drug candidates, as well as the associated costs, including any unforeseen costs;
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establishing and maintaining relationships with contract research organizations, or CROs, and clinical sites for the clinical development, both in the United States and internationally, of our drug candidates and any future drug candidates;
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timely submission of application for and receipt of marketing approvals from applicable regulatory authorities for any drug candidates for which we successfully complete clinical development;
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making any required post-marketing approval commitments to applicable regulatory authorities;
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developing an efficient and scalable manufacturing process for our drug candidates, including obtaining finished products that are appropriately packaged for sale;
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establishing and maintaining commercially viable supply and manufacturing relationships with third parties that can provide adequate, in both amount and quality, products and services to support clinical development and meet the market demand for drug candidates that we develop, if approved;
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successful commercial launch following any marketing approval, including the development of a commercial infrastructure, whether inhouse or with one or more collaborators;
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a continued acceptable safety profile following any marketing approval of our drug candidates;
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commercial acceptance of our drug candidates by patients, the medical community and third-party payors;
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identifying, assessing and developing new drug candidates;
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obtaining, maintaining and expanding patent protection, trade secret protection and regulatory exclusivity, both in the United States and internationally;
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protecting our rights in our intellectual property portfolio;
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defending against third-party patent challenges, derivation proceedings, or interference or infringement claims, if any;
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negotiating favorable terms in any collaboration, licensing or other arrangement that may be necessary or desirable to develop, manufacture or commercialize our drug candidates;
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obtaining coverage and adequate reimbursement by hospitals, government and third-party payors for drug candidates that we develop;
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addressing any competing therapies and technological and market developments; and
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attracting, hiring and retaining qualified personnel.
We may never be successful in achieving our objectives and, even if we are, may never generate revenue that is significant or large enough to achieve profitability. If we do achieve profitability, we may not be able to sustain or increase profitability on a quarterly or annual basis. Our failure to become and remain profitable may decrease the value of our company and could impair our ability to maintain or further our research and development efforts, raise additional necessary capital, grow our business and continue our operations.
We may also experience delays in developing a sustainable, reproducible and scalable manufacturing process or transferring that process to commercial partners, which may prevent us from completing our clinical trials or commercializing our drug candidates on a timely or profitable basis, if at all. Changes in the manufacturing process or facilities will require further comparability analysis and approval by the FDA before implementation, which could delay our clinical trials and drug candidate development, and could require additional clinical trials, including bridging studies and potential confirmatory or Phase 3 registrational trials, to demonstrate consistent and continued safety and efficacy.
We have not previously submitted a new drug application, or NDA, to the FDA or similar approval filings to a comparable foreign regulatory authority, for any drug candidate. An NDA or other relevant regulatory filing must include extensive nonclinical and clinical data and supporting information to establish that the drug candidate is safe and effective for each desired indication. The NDA or other relevant regulatory filing must also include significant information regarding the chemistry, manufacturing and controls for the drug product. We cannot be certain that our current or future drug candidates will be successful in clinical trials. Further, even if they are successful in clinical trials, our drug candidates or any future drug candidates may not receive regulatory approval. If we do not receive regulatory approvals for current or future drug candidates, we may not be able to continue our operations. Even if we successfully obtain regulatory approval to market a drug candidate, our revenue will depend, in part, upon the size of
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the markets in the territories for which we gain regulatory approval and have commercial rights, as well as the availability of competitive products, whether there is sufficient third-party reimbursement and adoption by physicians.
We have concentrated our research and development efforts on the treatment of central and peripheral nervous system degenerative disorders, a field that has seen very limited success in product development.
We have focused our research and development efforts on addressing CNS and PNS degenerative disorders. Collectively, efforts by pharmaceutical companies in the field of CNS and PNS degenerative disorders have seen very limited successes in product development. The development of CNS therapies presents unique challenges, including an imperfect understanding of the biology, the presence of the BBB that can restrict the flow of drugs to the brain, a frequent lack of translatability of preclinical study results in subsequent clinical trials and dose selection, and the product candidate having an effect that may be too small to be detected using the outcome measures selected in clinical trials or if the outcomes measured do not reach statistical significance. There are few effective therapeutic options available for patients with AD, ALS and other CNS or PNS disorders. Our future success is highly dependent on the successful development of our technology and our drug candidates for treating CNS and PNS disorders. Developing and, if approved, commercializing our drug candidates for treatment of CNS and PNS disorders subjects us to a number of challenges, including ensuring that we have selected the optimal doses, executing an appropriate clinical trial to test for efficacy and obtaining regulatory approval from the FDA and other regulatory authorities.
Clinical development involves a lengthy and expensive process with an uncertain outcome, and results of early, smaller-scale preclinical studies and clinical trials with a single or few clinical trial sites may not be predictive of eventual safety or effectiveness in large-scale potentially pivotal clinical trials across multiple clinical trial sites. We may encounter substantial delays in clinical trials, or may not be able to conduct or complete clinical trials on the expected timelines, if at all.
Our lead drug candidate, ATH-1105, is currently in clinical development for the potential treatment of ALS. It is impossible to predict when or if any of our drug candidates will prove to be effective and safe in humans or will receive regulatory approval.
Before obtaining regulatory approvals for the commercial sale of our drug candidates, we or a future partner must demonstrate through lengthy, complex and expensive nonclinical studies and clinical trials that our drug candidates are both safe and effective for each target indication. Nonclinical and clinical testing is expensive and can take many years to complete, and its outcome is inherently uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the nonclinical study and clinical trial processes, and, because our drug candidates are in an early stage of development, there is a high risk of failure and we may never succeed in developing marketable products. The results of nonclinical studies and early clinical trials of our drug candidates may not be predictive of the results of later-stage clinical trials. Although product candidates may demonstrate promising results in nonclinical studies and early clinical trials, they may not prove to be safe or effective in subsequent clinical trials. For example, testing on animals occurs under different conditions than testing in humans and therefore, the results of animal studies may not accurately predict safety and effectiveness in humans. There is typically an extremely high rate of attrition from the failure of product candidates proceeding through nonclinical studies and clinical trials. Product candidates in later stages of clinical trials may fail to show the desired safety and efficacy profile despite having progressed through nonclinical studies and initial clinical trials. For example, in our fosgonimeton Phase 1a/b clinical trial, which enrolled 88 patients, including only 11 patients with mild-to-moderate AD, of whom seven patients were treated with fosgonimeton and the other four patients were randomized to the control, suggested improvements in brain network activity including potentially positive effects on brain function. However, our subsequent Phase 2 ACT-AD clinical trial in AD did not meet its primary endpoint of a change in ERP P300 latency for the full study population nor did it meet the secondary endpoints, and our Phase 2/3 LIFT-AD clinical trial in AD did not meet its primary endpoint (the GST, a combination of results from measures of cognition (ADAS-Cog11) and function (ADCS-ADL23)) nor its key secondary endpoints of
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ADAS-Cog11 and ADCS-ADL23. Based on these results, we decided to pause further development of fosgonimeton and to shift our focus to the clinical development of ATH-1105.
Early, smaller-scale studies, biomarker analyses, and clinical trials with a single or relatively few clinical trial sites may not be predictive of eventual safety and effectiveness in large-scale pivotal clinical trials across multiple clinical trial sites. Even if data from a pivotal clinical trial are positive, regulators may not agree that such data are sufficient for approval and may require that we conduct additional clinical trials, which could materially delay our anticipated development timelines, require additional funding for such additional clinical trials, and adversely impact our business. A number of companies in the biopharmaceutical industry have suffered significant setbacks in advanced clinical trials due to lack of efficacy or unacceptable safety issues, notwithstanding promising results in earlier trials. Most product candidates that commence nonclinical studies and clinical trials are never approved as products.
In addition, in some instances, there can be significant variability in safety or efficacy results between different nonclinical studies and clinical trials of the same product candidate due to numerous factors, including changes in clinical trial procedures set forth in protocols, differences in the size and type of the patient populations, changes in and adherence to the clinical trial protocols and the rate of dropout among clinical trial participants.
In the future, we may initiate an open-label trial for one or more of our product candidates. An “open-label” clinical trial is one where both the patient and investigator know whether the patient is receiving the investigational product candidate or either an existing approved drug or placebo. Most typically, open-label clinical trials test only the investigational product candidate and sometimes may do so at different dose levels. Open-label clinical trials are subject to various limitations that may exaggerate any therapeutic effect as patients in open-label clinical trials are aware when they are receiving treatment. Open-label clinical trials may be subject to a “patient bias” where patients perceive their symptoms to have improved merely due to their awareness of receiving an experimental treatment. In addition, open-label clinical trials may be subject to an “investigator bias” where those assessing and reviewing the physiological outcomes of the clinical trials are aware of which patients have received treatment and may interpret the information of the treated group more favorably given this knowledge.
We could also encounter delays if a clinical trial is suspended or terminated by us, by the institutional review boards, or IRBs, of the institutions in which such clinical trials are being conducted, by a data safety monitoring board for such clinical trial or by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Clinical trials can be delayed or terminated or fail to meet endpoints for a variety of reasons, including delays or failures related to:
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the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities disagreeing as to the design or implementation of our clinical trials;
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the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities disagreeing with our clinical development strategy or statistical plan;
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changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions;
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delays in our ability to commence a clinical trial;
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reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective CROs and clinical trial sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and clinical trial sites;
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obtaining IRB approval at each clinical trial site;
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recruiting an adequate number of suitable patients to participate in a clinical trial on a timely basis;
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the number of patients required for clinical trials of our drug candidates may be larger than we anticipate;
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having subjects complete a clinical trial or return for post-treatment follow-up;
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clinical trial sites deviating from clinical trial protocol or dropping out of a clinical trial;
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protocol deviations or non-compliance with GCP requirements, or other data integrity reasons, that cause us or the FDA or other regulatory authorities to exclude data from non-compliant sites or investigators, which may cause the trial to be underpowered to meet the endpoints;
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delays by us or our CROs in qualifying or analyzing patient data at the completion of clinical trials;
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failure to demonstrate a benefit from using a drug candidate;
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addressing subject safety concerns that arise during the course of a clinical trial;
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adding a sufficient number of clinical trial sites; or
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obtaining sufficient supply of drug candidate for use in nonclinical studies or clinical trials from third-party suppliers.
Further, conducting clinical trials in foreign countries, as we may do for our drug candidates, presents additional risks that may delay completion of our clinical trials. These risks include the failure of enrolled patients in foreign countries to adhere to clinical protocol as a result of differences in healthcare services or cultural customs, managing additional administrative burdens associated with foreign regulatory schemes, as well as political and economic risks relevant to such foreign countries.
Moreover, principal investigators for our clinical trials may serve as scientific advisors or consultants to us from time to time and receive compensation in connection with such services. Under certain circumstances, we may be required to report some of these relationships to the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. The FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authority may conclude that a financial relationship between us and a principal investigator has created a conflict of interest or otherwise affected interpretation of the study. The FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authority may therefore question the integrity of the data generated at the applicable clinical trial site and the utility of the clinical trial itself may be jeopardized. This could result in a delay in approval, or rejection, of our marketing applications by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authority, as the case may be, and may ultimately lead to the denial of marketing approval of one or more of our drug candidates. If we experience delays in the completion of, or termination of, any clinical trial of our drug candidates, the commercial prospects of our drug candidates will be harmed, and our ability to generate product revenues from any of these drug candidates will be delayed. Moreover, any delays in completing our clinical trials will increase our costs, slow down our drug candidate development and approval process and jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenues.
If the results of our current and future clinical trials are inconclusive with respect to the efficacy of our drug candidates, if we or a future partner do not meet the clinical endpoints with statistical and clinically meaningful significance, or if there are safety concerns associated with our drug candidates, we may:
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incur unplanned costs;
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determine to limit or terminate clinical trials, including our open-label extension trial;
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be delayed in or prevented from obtaining marketing approval for our drug candidates;
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obtain approval for indications or patient populations that are not as broad as intended or desired;
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obtain approval with labeling that includes significant use or distribution restrictions or safety warnings including boxed warnings;
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be subject to changes in the way the drug candidate is administered;
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be required to perform additional clinical trials to support approval or be subject to additional post-marketing testing requirements;
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have regulatory authorities withdraw their approval of the drug product or impose restrictions on its distribution in the form of a modified risk evaluation and mitigation strategy, or REMS;
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be subject to the addition of labeling statements, such as warnings or contraindications;
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be sued; or
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experience damage to our reputation.
We may expend our limited resources to pursue a particular drug candidate or indication and fail to capitalize on drug candidates or indications that may be more profitable or for which there is a greater likelihood of success.
Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we focus on research programs and drug candidates that we identify for specific indications. As a result, we may forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities with other drug candidates or for other indications that later prove to have greater commercial potential or a greater likelihood of success. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future research and development programs and drug candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable products. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a particular drug candidate, we may relinquish valuable rights to that drug candidate through collaboration, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights.
Our long-term prospects depend in part upon discovering, developing and commercializing additional drug candidates, which may fail in development or suffer delays that adversely affect their commercial viability.
Our future operating results are dependent on our ability to successfully discover, develop, obtain regulatory approval for and commercialize drug candidates beyond those we currently have in clinical and nonclinical development. A drug candidate can unexpectedly fail at any stage of nonclinical and clinical development. The historical failure rate for drug candidates is high due to risks relating to safety, efficacy, clinical execution, changing standards of medical care and other unpredictable variables. The results from nonclinical testing or early clinical trials of a drug candidate may not be predictive of the results that will be obtained in later stage clinical trials of the drug candidate.
The success of other future drug candidates we may develop will depend on many factors, including the following:
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generating sufficient data to support the initiation or continuation of clinical trials;
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obtaining regulatory permission to initiate clinical trials;
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contracting with the necessary parties to conduct clinical trials;
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successful enrollment of patients in, and the completion of, clinical trials on a timely basis;
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the timely manufacture of sufficient quantities of the drug candidate for use in clinical trials; and
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adverse events in the clinical trials.
Even if we successfully advance any other future drug candidates into clinical development, their success will be subject to all of the clinical, regulatory and commercial risks described elsewhere in this “Risk Factors” section. Accordingly, we cannot assure you that we will ever be able to discover, develop, obtain regulatory approval of, commercialize or generate significant revenue from our other future drug candidates.
We have been and may in the future be subject to claims, lawsuits, arbitration proceedings, government investigations, securities class action litigation and other legal, regulatory and
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administrative proceedings and face potential liability and expenses related thereto, which could divert management’s attention, and insurance coverage may not be sufficient to cover all costs and damages. This could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition.
We have been and may in the future be subject to claims, lawsuits, arbitration proceedings, government investigations, securities class action litigation and other legal, regulatory and administrative proceedings. For example, in November 2022, we received a Civil Investigative Demand from the Civil Division of the Department of Justice, or the Demand. The Demand sought documents and information relating to our relationship with WSU, certain of our grant applications in 2016 and 2019 with the NIH, and our receipt of a NIH grant in 2020. We cooperated with the Department of Justice with respect to the Demand and in December 2024 reached a settlement with respect thereto. In February 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, sent us a subpoena seeking documents and information relating to, among other things, our former chief executive officer’s alteration of images in certain research papers. We cooperated with the SEC with respect to the subpoena. On March 29, 2024, we received a letter from the SEC stating that the SEC had concluded its investigation without any enforcement action against us.
In the ordinary course of business we have been and may in the future be the subject of various legal claims. Any such claims, investigations or proceedings against us, whether meritorious or not, could be time-consuming, result in costly litigation, be harmful to our reputation, require significant management attention and divert significant resources, and the resolution of any such claims, investigations or proceedings could result in substantial damages, settlement costs, fines or penalties that could adversely affect our business, financial condition or operating results or result in harm to our reputation and brand, sanctions, consent decrees, injunctions or other remedies requiring a change in our business practices.
In the past, securities class action litigation has often followed announcement of significant business transactions, such as the sale of a company or other strategic transaction, or of negative events, such as negative results from clinical trials. We may be exposed to such litigation or government or regulatory investigations even if no wrongdoing occurred. Litigation and investigations are usually expensive and divert management’s attention and resources, which could adversely affect our business and cash resources and our ability to consummate a potential strategic transaction or the ultimate value our stockholders receive in any such transaction.
Further, under certain circumstances we may have contractual or other legal obligations to indemnify and to incur legal expenses on behalf of investors, directors, officers employees, customers, vendors or other third-parties. For example, our amended and restated bylaws provide that we will indemnify our directors and officers, and may indemnify our employees, agents and other persons, to the fullest extent permitted by the Delaware General Corporation Law. We have also entered into indemnification agreements with directors and officers that require us, among other things, to indemnify them against claims that may arise due to their service in those capacities. These indemnification agreements also require us to advance expenses reasonably and actually incurred by them in investigating or defending any such claims, and it may be difficult or impossible to recover any advanced expenses if it turns out the person was not entitled to indemnification. If we are required or agree to defend or indemnify, or advance expenses to, any of our investors, directors, officers, employees, customers, vendors or other third-parties, we could incur material costs and expenses that could adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.
Washington State University, or WSU, has undertaken a review of claims of potential research misconduct involving our former chief executive officer’s doctoral research at WSU. We cannot predict what conclusions WSU will reach, whether or when WSU will share its conclusions with us or the public, and what effect, if any, this investigation may have on our business and reputation.
In addition to the previously disclosed investigation of the independent special committee of our board of directors, WSU has also announced that it has undertaken a review of claims of potential research misconduct involving research conducted by Dr. Leen Kawas, our former chief executive officer, during her doctoral studies at WSU. We cannot predict what, if any, effect this investigation may have on our business
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and reputation. It is possible that the investigation by WSU could come to different conclusions, or uncover additional or different information, than the investigation of the independent special committee of our board of directors, the primary finding of which was that Dr. Kawas altered images in her 2011 doctoral dissertation and at least four research papers that she co-authored while a graduate student at WSU, and published from 2011 to 2014. The conclusions from WSU’s investigation could have a material adverse impact on our business, reputation, scientific credibility, and prospects, as well as our in-licensed patents and pending patent applications, current grants and pending grant applications, and our relationship with WSU, from whom we in-license patents and patent applications underlying certain of our drug candidates.
Any “topline”, interim, initial, or preliminary data from our clinical trials that we announce or publish from time to time may change as more patient data become available and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data.
From time to time, we may publicly disclose preliminary or topline data from our nonclinical studies and clinical trials, which is based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular study or clinical trial. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the topline or preliminary results that we report may differ from future results of the same studies, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Topline data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the preliminary data we previously published. As a result, topline data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available.
From time to time, we may also disclose interim data from our nonclinical studies and clinical trials. Interim data from clinical trials that we may complete are subject to the risk that one or more of the clinical outcomes may materially change as patient enrollment continues and more patient data become available or as patients from our clinical trials continue other treatments for their disease. Adverse differences between preliminary or interim data and final data could significantly harm our business prospects. Further, disclosure of interim data by us or by our competitors could result in volatility in the price of our common stock.
Additionally, we rely on data received from clinical trials, whether preliminary or final, to inform decisions on future clinical trials, including trial design, trial size, and whether or not to initiate additional clinical trials. However, this does not guarantee that our expectations based on earlier data will be realized in future clinical trials. For example, in November 2020, we initiated ACT-AD, an exploratory Phase 2 clinical trial, to better understand the overall effects of fosgonimeton on working memory processing speed and cognitive measures. Topline results of ACT-AD were announced in June 2022. We used these data to help inform strategic decisions around LIFT-AD. In September 2024, we announced the topline results for LIFT-AD, showing that the trial did not meet its primary or key secondary endpoints. Moreover, preliminary or topline results are based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data, and a more comprehensive and full review of the data may result in different conclusions, which could have a negative impact on our decisions regarding any additional trials.
Further, others, including regulatory agencies, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular program, the approvability or commercialization of the particular drug candidate or drug and our company in general. In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is based on what is typically extensive information, and you or others may not agree with what we determine is material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure. If the interim, topline, or preliminary data that we report differ from actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize, our drug candidates may be harmed, which could harm our business, operating results, prospects or financial condition.
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Our reporting of topline or final data for our clinical trials may be delayed and our regulatory submissions or receipt of necessary marketing approvals could be delayed or prevented.
Our projected timeline for announcing our topline data for ATH-1105 or any other drug candidates we may seek to develop may be delayed, including, among other reasons, due to possible delays in data cleaning, processing or analysis, either on our part and/or on the part of any of our third-party vendors, which could harm our business, operating results, prospects or financial condition.
We also may not be able to initiate or continue clinical trials for our drug candidates if we are unable to recruit and enroll a sufficient number of eligible patients to participate in these clinical trials through completion of such trials as required by the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Patient enrollment is a significant factor in the timing of clinical trials. Our ability to enroll eligible patients may be limited or may result in slower enrollment than we anticipate. Patient enrollment may also be affected if our competitors have ongoing clinical trials for programs that are under development for the same indications as our drug candidates, and patients who would otherwise be eligible for our clinical trials instead enroll in clinical trials of our competitors’ programs. Additionally, publicly reported results of our completed clinical trials may impact enrollment of our trials in progress. If we are unable to locate a sufficient number of such patients, our clinical trial and development plans could be delayed.
If we are delayed or unsuccessful in enrolling the desired number of subjects in our trials, whether as a result of the outcomes of prior trials conducted by us, competing clinical trials, overly stringent eligibility requirements, or other factors, our clinical trial results could be delayed, the costs of our clinical trials could materially increase, and the overall development timeline for ATH-1105 or any other drug candidates we may seek to develop could be negatively impacted. Even if we are successful in enrolling the targeted number of subjects in our trials, the FDA and other regulators may request additional clinical trials with larger numbers of subjects as a condition to any regulatory approval.
Our inability to enroll a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials would result in significant delays or may require us to abandon one or more clinical trials altogether. Further, to the extent any of our clinical trial sites fail to comply with the approved study protocol, good clinical practices, or FDA regulations, we may be required to exclude such sites, participants such sites may have enrolled, as well as the data collected by such sites. If any of these events were to occur, or if we are required to exclude any data for any reason, we may be required to recruit more sites or more participants than we initially thought. Enrollment delays or other delays in our clinical trials may result in increased development costs for our drug candidates and jeopardize our ability to obtain marketing approval for the sale of our drug candidates. Furthermore, even if we are able to enroll a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials, we may have difficulty maintaining participation in our clinical trials through the treatment and any follow-up periods.
We face significant competition, and if our competitors develop and market technologies or products more rapidly than we do or that are more effective, safer, or less expensive than the drug candidates we develop, our commercial opportunities will be negatively impacted.
The biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries utilize rapidly advancing technologies and are characterized by intense competition. While we believe that our scientific knowledge, technology and development expertise provide us with competitive advantages, we face competitive pressures from both large and small pharmaceutical companies, emerging biotechnology companies, as well as academic, government and private research institutions. Many of our competitors have access to greater financial resources, market presence, expertise in development, preclinical and clinical testing, manufacturing, commercialization, regulatory approval process, or marketing and sales than we do. Our competitors may compete with us in patient recruitment, use of clinical research organizations, and procurement of operational resources. As a result, our competitors may discover, develop, license or commercialize products before or more successfully than we do.
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Drug candidates that we may successfully develop and commercialize will compete with existing therapies and new therapies that may become available in the future. Key product features that would affect our ability to effectively compete with other therapeutics include the efficacy, safety and convenience of our drug products. Our competitors may obtain patent protection or other intellectual property rights that limit our ability to develop or commercialize our drug candidates. The availability of reimbursement from government and other third-party payors will also significantly affect the pricing and competitiveness of our drug products. Current and future CMS coverage restrictions on classes of drugs that encompass our drug candidates could have a material adverse impact on our ability to commercialize our drug candidates, if approved, generate revenue and attain profitability. It is unclear how future CMS coverage decisions and policies will impact our business. Our competitors may also obtain FDA or other regulatory approval for their products more rapidly than we may obtain approval for ours, which could result in our competitors establishing a strong market position before we are able to enter the market. For additional information regarding our competition, see the section titled “Part I, Item 1 – Business – Competition.”
We may develop drug candidates in combination with other therapies, which exposes us to additional risks.
We may develop drug candidates in combination with one or more other approved or unapproved therapies. Even if any drug candidate we develop were to receive marketing approval or be commercialized for use in combination with other existing therapies, we would continue to be subject to the risks that the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities outside of the United States could revoke approval of the therapy used in combination with our drug product or that safety, efficacy, manufacturing or supply issues could arise with any of those existing therapies. If the therapies we use in combination with our drug candidates are replaced as the standard of care for the indications we choose for any of our drug candidates, the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require us to conduct additional clinical trials. The occurrence of any of these risks could result in our own drug products, if approved, being removed from the market or being less successful commercially.
We also may choose to evaluate drug candidates in combination with one or more therapies that have not yet been approved for marketing by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. We will not be able to market and sell any drug candidate we develop in combination with an unapproved therapy for a combination indication if that unapproved therapy does not ultimately obtain marketing approval either alone or in combination with our drug product. In addition, unapproved therapies face the same risks described with respect to our drug candidate ATH-1105, currently in development, and clinical trials, including the potential for serious adverse effects, delay in their clinical trials and lack of FDA approval. If the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities do not approve these other drugs or revoke their approval of, or if safety, efficacy, quality, manufacturing or supply issues arise with, the drugs we choose to evaluate in combination with our drug candidate we develop, we may be unable to obtain approval of or market such combination therapy.
Risks Related to Our Financial Position and Capital Needs
We will require substantial additional funding to finance our operations, complete the development and commercialization of ATH-1105, and develop and commercialize other current and potential drug candidates. If we are unable to raise this funding and access capital when needed, we may be forced to delay, reduce, or eliminate our drug product development programs, commercialization efforts or other operations.
Since our inception, we have used substantial amounts of cash to fund our operations, and we will continue to incur expenses for the foreseeable future in connection with our ongoing activities, particularly as we continue the research and development of, initiate clinical trials of, and seek marketing approval for, ATH-1105. Developing ATH-1105 and conducting clinical trials for the potential treatment of ALS, and any other indications that we may pursue in the future will require substantial amounts of capital and we are actively seeking a partner to assist with the development of ATH-1105 through a joint collaboration agreement, provision of non-dilutive funding, or a combination of these and other structures. In addition, if we or a future partner obtain marketing approval for ATH-1105 or any future drug candidates, we expect
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this would result in significant commercialization expenses related to sales, marketing, manufacturing, and distribution. Furthermore, we expect to continue to incur additional costs associated with operating as a public company.
Accordingly, we will need to obtain substantial additional funding in connection with our continuing operations. As of December 31, 2024, we had cash, cash equivalents and investments of $51.3 million. Based upon our current operating plan, we estimate that our existing cash, cash equivalents and investments will be sufficient to fund our operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements through at least the next 12 months following the date of this report.
The amount and timing of our future funding requirements depends on many factors, some of which are outside of our control, including but not limited to:
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the progress, costs, clinical trial design, results of and timing of our ATH-1105 and other clinical trials, including for potential additional indications that we may pursue beyond ALS, such as AD;
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the willingness of the FDA and EMA to accept ATH-1105 clinical trial data, as well as data from any completed and planned clinical and nonclinical studies and other work, as the basis for review and approval of ATH-1105 for ALS and the potential need for additional clinical trials;
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the outcome, costs and timing of seeking and obtaining FDA, EMA and any other regulatory approvals;
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the number and characteristics of drug candidates that we pursue;
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our ability to manufacture sufficient quantities of our drug candidates;
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our need to expand our research and development activities;
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the costs associated with securing and establishing commercialization and manufacturing capabilities;
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the costs of acquiring, licensing or investing in businesses, drug candidates and technologies;
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the cost, timing and outcomes of any litigation involving our company, including securities class actions and government investigations which we may be or may in the future become involved in;
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our ability to maintain, expand and defend the scope of our intellectual property portfolio, including the amount and timing of any payments we may be required to make, or that we may receive, in connection with the licensing, filing, prosecution, defense and enforcement of any patents or other intellectual property rights;
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our need and ability to retain management and hire scientific, clinical and other personnel;
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the effect of competing drugs and drug candidates and other market developments;
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our need to implement additional internal systems and infrastructure, including financial and reporting systems; and
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the economic and other terms, timing of and success of any collaboration, licensing or other arrangements into which we may enter in the future.
Because we have undertaken a process to assess strategic alternatives, the timing of which is uncertain, our future capital requirements may vary significantly from what we expect. If a strategic transaction is not consummated, we will require substantial additional funding to support our continuing operations and development. In addition, even if we are successful in completing a strategic transaction, we may still need to raise additional funds for any research and development or clinical programs we choose to pursue. Because the time and efforts required for successful research and development of our product candidates is highly uncertain, we are unable to estimate the actual funds we will require for development and any marketing and commercialization activities for any product candidates that ultimately may be approved for sale.
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In January 2023, we entered into a sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., or Cantor Fitzgerald, and BTIG, LLC, or BTIG, to sell shares of our common stock having aggregate sales proceeds of up to $75.0 million, from time to time, through an at-the-market, or ATM, equity offering program under which Cantor Fitzgerald and BTIG are acting as sales agents. We have not sold any securities pursuant to this ATM offering. However, additional funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. Any such funding may result in dilution to stockholders, imposition of debt covenants and repayment obligations, or other restrictions that may affect our business. If we are unable to obtain funding on a timely basis, we may be required to significantly curtail or abandon one or more of our research or development programs. We also could be required to seek funds through arrangements with collaborative partners or otherwise that may require us to relinquish rights to some of our technologies or drug candidates or otherwise agree to terms unfavorable to us.
We expect to finance our cash needs through a combination of public or private equity offerings, debt financings, collaborations, strategic alliances, licensing arrangements and other marketing or distribution arrangements. In addition, we may seek additional capital to take advantage of favorable market conditions or strategic opportunities even if we believe we have sufficient funds for our current or future operating plans.
Our ability to raise additional funds will depend on financial, economic and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. For example, the current inflationary economic environment and health epidemics have resulted in a disruption of global financial markets. If the disruption persists or deepens, we could be unable to access additional capital, which could negatively affect our ability to consummate certain corporate development transactions or other important, beneficial or opportunistic investments. If additional funds are not available to us when we need them, on terms that are acceptable to us, or at all, we may be required to take steps that could adversely impact our business, including delaying, limiting, reducing or terminating nonclinical studies, clinical trials or other research and development activities or eliminating one or more of our development programs altogether, or delaying, limiting or reducing or terminating efforts to prepare for commercialization of any future approved drug products. We currently have a shelf registration statement effective and an existing ATM equity offering program, however, our ability to raise capital under this registration statement and through our ATM equity offering program may be limited in the future by, among other things, SEC rules and regulations impacting the eligibility of smaller companies to use Form S-3 for primary offerings of securities.
We have incurred significant losses since our inception and anticipate that we will continue to incur significant losses for the foreseeable future.
We have not generated any revenue from drug product sales and our drug candidates will require substantial additional investment before they may provide us with any revenue. We had net losses of $96.9 million and $117.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, and an accumulated deficit of $406.1 million as of December 31, 2024.
We have devoted most of our financial resources to research and development, including our clinical and nonclinical development activities. To date, we have financed our operations primarily with proceeds from the sale and issuance of common stock, convertible preferred stock, common stock warrants, and convertible notes, and to a lesser extent from grant income and stock option exercises.
We expect to incur significant expenses and operating losses for the foreseeable future, including as a result of the following actions that we may take to:
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continue our research and nonclinical and clinical development of our drug candidates;
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expand the scope of our clinical studies for our current and prospective drug candidates;
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initiate additional nonclinical, clinical or other studies for our drug candidates;
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change or add additional manufacturers or suppliers and manufacture drug supply and drug product for clinical trials and commercialization;
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seek regulatory and marketing approvals for any of our drug candidates that successfully complete clinical trials;
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attract, hire and retain additional personnel;
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operate as a public company;
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maintain our facilities and lab space;
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seek to identify and validate additional drug candidates;
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acquire or in-license other drug candidates and technologies or engage in other strategic transactions;
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make milestone or other payments under our in-license or other agreements;
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maintain, protect and expand our intellectual property portfolio;
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create additional infrastructure to support our operations and our drug product development efforts; and
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incur expenses in connection with legal proceedings, and addressing potential stockholder activism.
Our expenses could increase beyond expectations for a variety of reasons, including if we experience any delays or encounter issues with any of the above, are required by the FDA, the European Medicines Agency, or EMA, or other regulatory agencies, domestic or foreign, to perform clinical and other studies in addition to those that we currently anticipate. Our prior losses, combined with expected future losses, have had and will continue to have an adverse effect on our stockholders’ equity.
Adverse events or perceptions affecting the financial services industry could adversely affect our operating results, liquidity, financial condition and prospects.
Limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments affecting financial institutions or parties with which we do business, or perceptions regarding these or similar risks, have in the past and may in the future lead to market-wide liquidity problems. For example, in March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank, or SVB, was closed and placed in receivership and subsequently, additional financial institutions have been placed into receivership. We did not hold cash deposits or other accounts with SVB and did not, and as of the date of this report do not, otherwise have a direct business relationship with SVB or similarly situated financial institutions. However, companies that did have a business relationship with SVB faced:
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delayed access to deposits or other financial assets or the uninsured loss of deposits or other financial assets;
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loss of access to revolving existing credit facilities or other working capital sources or the inability to refund, roll over or extend the maturity of, or enter into new credit facilities or other working capital resources;
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potential or actual breach of obligations, including U.S. federal and state wage laws and contracts that required them to maintain letters or credit or other credit support arrangements; and
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termination of cash management arrangements or delays in accessing or actual loss of funds subject to cash management arrangements.
As a result of U.S. government intervention, account holders subsequently regained access to their accounts, including the uninsured portion of deposit accounts; however, borrowers under credit agreements, letters of credit and certain other financial instruments with SVB and similarly situated financial institutions were unable to access to such sources of liquidity. There is no guarantee that the U.S. government will intervene to provide access to uninsured funds in the future in the event of the failure of
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other financial institutions, or that they would do so in a timely fashion. In such an event, parties with which we have commercial agreements may be unable to satisfy their obligations to, or enter into new commercial arrangements with, us.
Concerns regarding the U.S. or international financial systems could impact the availability and cost of financing, thereby making it more difficult for us to acquire financing on acceptable terms or at all.
Any of these risks could materially impact our operating results, liquidity, financial condition and prospects.
The value of our investments is subject to significant capital markets risk related to changes in interest rates and credit spreads as well as other investment risks, which may adversely affect our operating results, liquidity, financial condition and prospects.
Our results of operations are affected by the performance of our investment portfolio. Our excess cash is invested by an external investment management service provider, under the direction of our management in accordance with our investment policy. The investment policy defines constraints and guidelines that restrict the asset classes that we may invest in by type, duration, quality and value. Our investments are subject to market-wide risks, and fluctuations, as well as to risks inherent in particular securities. The failure of any of the investment risk strategies that we employ could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, liquidity, financial condition and prospects.
The value of our investments is exposed to capital market risks, and our results of operations, liquidity, financial condition or cash flows could be adversely affected by realized losses, impairments and changes in unrealized positions as a result of: significant market volatility, changes in interest rates, changes in credit spreads and defaults, a lack of pricing transparency, a reduction in market liquidity, declines in equity prices, changes in national, state/provincial or local laws and the strengthening or weakening of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar. Levels of write-down or impairment are impacted by our assessment of the intent to sell securities that have declined in value as well as actual losses as a result of defaults or deterioration in estimates of cash flows. If we reposition or realign portions of the investment portfolio and sell securities in an unrealized loss position, we will incur realized losses. Any such charge may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and business.
Our ability to use net operating losses to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations.
As of December 31, 2024, we had federal net operating loss carryforwards, or NOLs, to offset future taxable income of approximately $9.5 million and federal tax credit carryforwards of approximately $16.5 million, which expire over a period of 7 to 13 years. Federal NOLs of $196.0 million generated after the 2017 tax year will carry forward indefinitely and will be subject to the 80% of taxable income limitation. At December 31, 2024, we also had state NOLs of $3.9 million, which expire over a period of 17 to 20 years. A lack of future taxable income would adversely affect our ability to utilize these NOLs.
In addition, under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, or the Code, a corporation that undergoes an “ownership change,” generally defined as a greater than 50% change (by value) in ownership by “5 percent shareholders” over a rolling three-year period, is subject to limitations on its ability to utilize its pre-change NOLs and tax credit carryforwards to offset post-change taxable income or taxes. We may have already experienced one or more ownership changes through our equity offerings and other changes in our stock ownership.
Depending on the timing of any future utilization of our pre-change NOLs and tax credit carryforwards, we may be limited as to the amount that can be utilized each year as a result of such previous ownership changes. In addition, future changes in our stock ownership as well as other changes that may be outside of our control, could result in additional ownership changes under Section 382 of the Code. Our NOLs may also be impaired under similar provisions of state law or limited pursuant to provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act amendments to the Code, as modified by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act.
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We have recorded a full valuation allowance related to our NOLs and other deferred tax assets due to the uncertainty of the ultimate realization of the future benefits of those assets.
Changes in tax laws could have a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, results of operations or financial condition.
We are subject to the tax laws, regulations, and policies of several taxing jurisdictions. Changes in tax laws, as well as other factors, could cause us to experience fluctuations in our tax obligations and effective tax rates and otherwise adversely affect our tax positions or our tax liabilities. For example, in August 2022, as part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the United States enacted a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks and a 15% alternative minimum tax on adjusted financial statement income. Additionally, beginning in 2022, the Code eliminated the right to deduct research and development expenditures and instead requires taxpayers to capitalize and amortize U.S. and foreign research and development expenditures over five and 15 tax years, respectively. Additionally, many countries and local jurisdictions and organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have proposed or implemented new tax laws or changes to existing tax laws, including additional taxes on payroll or employees. Any new or changes to tax laws could adversely affect our effective tax rate, operating results, tax credits or incentives or tax payments, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, results of operations or financial condition.
Risks Related to Strategic Process and Potential Strategic Transaction
We may not be successful in identifying and implementing any strategic transaction and any strategic transactions that we may consummate in the future may not be successful.
Following our receipt of the topline results of LIFT-AD, we made the determination to explore strategic alternatives focused on maximizing stockholder value. As part of this process, we are exploring potential strategic alternatives that may include, but are not limited to, an acquisition, merger or reverse merger, business combination, equity or debt financing, sale of the Company, sale, exclusive license or other disposition of all or a portion of our assets, a return of capital to stockholders, or other transaction. However, there can be no assurance that we will be able to successfully consummate any particular strategic transaction. The process of continuing to evaluate these strategic options is costly, time-consuming and complex and we have incurred and may continue to incur significant costs related to this continued evaluation. We may also incur additional unanticipated expenses in connection with this process. A considerable portion of these costs will be incurred regardless of whether any such course of action is implemented, or transaction is completed. Any such expenses will decrease the remaining cash available for use in our business and may diminish or delay any potential cash distributions to our stockholders. In addition, we may not be able to adequately limit or avoid future liabilities, including future costs relating to the lease on our headquarters, which may impair the value of any potential transaction or present additional challenges to completing a strategic transaction.
There can be no assurances that any particular course of action, business arrangement or transaction, or series of transactions, will be pursued, successfully consummated, lead to increased stockholder value, or achieve the anticipated results. Any failure of such potential transaction to achieve the anticipated results could significantly impair our ability to enter into any future strategic transactions and may significantly reduce or delay any future distributions to our stockholders.
We may not realize any additional value in a strategic transaction.
The market capitalization of our company is currently below the value of our current cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. Potential counterparties in a strategic transaction involving our company may place minimal or no value on our assets, including ATH-1105. Further, the development and any potential commercialization of our product candidates would require substantial additional cash to fund the costs associated with conducting the necessary preclinical and clinical testing and obtaining regulatory approval. Consequently, any potential counterparty in a strategic transaction involving our company may
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choose not to spend the additional resources necessary to continue developing our product candidates and may attribute little or no value, in such a transaction, to those product candidates.
If we are successful in completing a strategic transaction, we may be exposed to other operational and financial risks.
Although there can be no assurance that a strategic transaction will result from the process we have undertaken to assess strategic alternatives, the negotiation and consummation of any such transaction will require significant time on the part of our management, and the diversion of management’s attention may disrupt the orderly operation of our company. The negotiation and consummation of any such transaction may also require more time or greater cash resources than we anticipate and expose us to other operational and financial risks, including:
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increased near-term and long-term expenditures;
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exposure to unknown liabilities;
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higher than expected acquisition, disposition or integration costs;
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incurrence of substantial debt or dilutive issuances of equity securities to fund future operations;
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write-downs of assets or incurrence of non-recurring, impairment or other charges;
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difficulty and cost in combining the operations and personnel of any acquired business with our operations and personnel;
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impairment of relationships with key suppliers or customers of any acquired business due to changes in management and ownership;
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inability to retain key employees of our company or any acquired business; and
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possibility of future litigation.
Any of the foregoing risks could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and prospects.
Our board of directors may decide to pursue a dissolution and liquidation. In such an event, the amount of cash available for distribution to our stockholders will depend heavily on the timing of such liquidation as well as the amount of cash that will need to be reserved for commitments and contingent liabilities.
There can be no assurance that a strategic transaction will be pursued or completed, and, whether or not such strategic transaction is completed, our board of directors may decide to pursue a dissolution and liquidation of our company. In such an event, the amount of cash available for distribution to our stockholders will depend heavily on the timing of such decision and, with the passage of time, the amount of cash available for distribution will be reduced as we continue to fund our operations. In addition, if our board of directors were to approve and recommend, and our stockholders were to approve, a dissolution and liquidation, we would be required under Delaware corporate law to pay our outstanding obligations, as well as to make reasonable provision for contingent and unknown obligations, prior to making any distributions in liquidation to our stockholders. As a result of this requirement, a portion of our assets may need to be reserved pending the resolution of such obligations and the timing of any such resolution is uncertain. In addition, we may be subject to litigation or other claims related to a dissolution and liquidation. If a dissolution and liquidation were pursued, our board of directors, in consultation with our advisors, would need to evaluate these matters and make a determination about a reasonable amount to reserve. Accordingly, holders of our common stock could lose all or a significant portion of their investment in the event of a liquidation, dissolution or winding up.
Risks Related to Regulatory Approval and Other Legal Compliance Matters
The regulatory approval processes of the FDA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities are lengthy, time consuming and inherently unpredictable. If we are not able to obtain, or if there are delays in obtaining, required regulatory approvals for our drug candidates, we will
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not be able to commercialize, or will be delayed in commercializing, our drug candidates, and our ability to generate revenue will be materially impaired.
Our drug candidates and the activities associated with their development and commercialization, including their design, testing, manufacture, safety, efficacy, recordkeeping, labeling, storage, approval, advertising, promotion, sale, distribution, import and export are subject to comprehensive regulation by the FDA and other regulatory agencies in the United States and by comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Before we can commercialize any of our drug candidates, we must obtain marketing approval.
Obtaining approval by the FDA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities is unpredictable, typically takes many years following the commencement of clinical trials and depends upon numerous factors, including the type, complexity and novelty of the product candidates involved. In addition, approval policies, regulations or the type and amount of clinical data necessary to gain approval may change during the course of a product candidate’s clinical development and may vary among jurisdictions, which may cause delays in the approval or the decision not to approve an application. Further, securing regulatory approval also requires the submission of information about the drug manufacturing process to, and inspection of manufacturing facilities by, the relevant regulatory authority. Regulatory authorities have substantial discretion in the approval process and may refuse to accept any application or may decide that our data are insufficient for approval and require additional nonclinical, clinical or other data. Even if we eventually complete clinical testing and receive approval for our drug candidates, the FDA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may approve our drug candidates for a more limited indication or a narrower patient population than we originally requested or may impose other prescribing limitations or warnings that limit the drug product’s commercial potential. We have not submitted for, or obtained, regulatory approval for any drug candidate, and it is possible that none of our drug candidates will ever obtain regulatory approval. Further, development of our drug candidates or regulatory approval may be delayed for reasons beyond our control.
Applications for our drug candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval for many reasons, including the following:
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the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with the design, implementation or results of our clinical trials;
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the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may determine that our drug candidates are not safe and effective or have undesirable or unintended side effects, toxicities or other characteristics that preclude our obtaining marketing approval or prevent or limit commercial use;
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the population studied in the clinical trial may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure efficacy and safety in the full population for which we seek approval;
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the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with our interpretation of data from nonclinical studies or clinical trials;
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we may be unable to demonstrate to the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities that our drug candidate’s risk-benefit ratio for its proposed indication is acceptable;
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the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may fail to approve the manufacturing processes, test procedures and specifications or facilities of third-party manufacturers with which we contract for clinical and commercial supplies; and
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the approval policies or regulations of the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for approval or resulting in delays in our regulatory approval, including, for example, legislation or agency policies that aim to reform the accelerated approval process and FDA’s increased scrutiny of post-approval confirmatory studies, which can result in withdrawal of accelerated approval if such studies fail to confirm a clinical benefit.
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This lengthy approval process, as well as the unpredictability of the results of clinical trials, may result in our failing to obtain regulatory approval to market any of our drug candidates, which would significantly harm our business, results of operations and prospects. In addition, even if we obtain approval of our drug candidates, regulatory authorities may approve any of our drug candidates for fewer or more limited indications than we request, may impose significant limitations in the form of narrow indications, warnings, or a REMS. Regulatory authorities may not approve the price we intend to charge for drug products we may develop, may grant approval contingent on the performance of costly post-marketing clinical trials, or may approve a drug candidate with a label that does not include the labeling claims necessary or desirable for the successful commercialization of that drug candidate. Any of the foregoing scenarios could seriously harm our business.
Of the large number of drugs in development, only a small percentage successfully complete the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory approval processes and are commercialized. The lengthy approval processes as well as the unpredictability of future clinical trial results may result in our failing to obtain regulatory approval to market our drug candidates, which would significantly harm our business, results of operations and prospects.
Our current or future drug candidates may cause significant adverse events, toxicities or other undesirable side effects when used alone or in combination with other approved products or investigational new drugs that may result in a safety profile that could inhibit regulatory approval, prevent market acceptance, limit their commercial potential or result in significant negative consequences.
As is the case with pharmaceuticals generally, it is likely that there may be side effects and adverse events associated with our drug candidates’ use. Results of our clinical trials could reveal a high and unacceptable severity and prevalence of side effects or unexpected characteristics. Undesirable side effects caused by our drug candidates could cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. The drug-related side effects could affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled patients to complete the clinical trial or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly.
If our drug candidates are associated with undesirable side effects or have unexpected characteristics in nonclinical studies or clinical trials when used alone or in combination with other approved products or investigational new drugs we may need to interrupt, delay or abandon their development or limit development to more narrow uses or subpopulations in which the undesirable side effects or other characteristics are less prevalent, less severe or more acceptable from a risk-benefit perspective. Treatment-related side effects could also affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled subjects to complete the clinical trial, or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the affected drug candidate and may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly.
Patients in our clinical trials may in the future suffer significant adverse events or other side effects not observed in our nonclinical studies or previous clinical trials. Some of our drug candidates may be used as chronic therapies or be used in populations for which safety concerns may be particularly scrutinized by regulatory agencies. In addition, if our drug candidates are used in combination with other therapies, our drug candidates may exacerbate adverse events associated with the therapy. Patients treated with our drug candidates may also be undergoing separate treatments which can cause side effects or adverse events that are unrelated to our drug candidates, but may still impact the success of our clinical trials, including, for example, by interfering with the effects of our drug candidates.
If significant adverse events or other side effects are observed in any of our current or future clinical trials, we may have difficulty recruiting patients to the clinical trials, patients may drop out of our clinical trials, or we may be required to abandon the clinical trials or our development efforts of that drug candidate altogether. We, the FDA other comparable regulatory authorities or an IRB may suspend clinical trials of a drug candidate at any time for various reasons, including a belief that subjects in such clinical trials are
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being exposed to unacceptable health risks or adverse side effects. Some potential therapeutics developed in the biotechnology industry that initially showed therapeutic promise in early-stage clinical trials have later been found to cause side effects that prevented their further development. Even if the side effects do not preclude the drug candidate from obtaining or maintaining marketing approval, undesirable side effects may inhibit market acceptance due to its tolerability versus other therapies. Any of these developments could materially harm our business, financial condition and prospects.
Further, if any of our drug candidates obtains marketing approval, toxicities associated with such drug candidates and not seen during clinical testing may also develop after such approval and lead to a requirement to conduct additional clinical safety trials, additional contraindications, warnings and precautions being added to the drug label, significant restrictions on the use of the drug product or the withdrawal of the drug product from the market. We cannot predict whether our drug candidates will cause toxicities in humans that would preclude or lead to the revocation of regulatory approval based on nonclinical studies or early-stage clinical trials.
Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approval of our drug candidates in one jurisdiction does not mean that we will be successful in obtaining regulatory approval of our drug candidates in other jurisdictions.
Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approval of our drug candidates in one jurisdiction does not guarantee that we will be able to obtain or maintain regulatory approval in any other jurisdiction. For example, even if the FDA grants marketing approval of a drug candidate, comparable regulatory authorities in foreign jurisdictions must also approve the manufacturing, marketing and promotion and reimbursement of the drug candidate in those countries. However, a failure or delay in obtaining regulatory approval in one jurisdiction may have a negative effect on the regulatory approval process in others. Approval procedures vary among jurisdictions and can involve requirements and administrative review periods different from those in the United States, including additional nonclinical studies or clinical trials as clinical trials conducted in one jurisdiction may not be accepted by regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions. In many jurisdictions outside the United States, a drug candidate must be approved for reimbursement before it can be approved for sale in that jurisdiction. In some cases, the price that we intend to charge for our drug products is also subject to approval.
We may also submit marketing applications in other countries. Regulatory authorities in jurisdictions outside of the United States have requirements for approval of drug candidates with which we must comply prior to marketing in those jurisdictions. Obtaining foreign regulatory approvals and establishing and maintaining compliance with foreign regulatory requirements could result in significant delays, difficulties and costs for us and could delay or prevent the introduction of our drug products in certain countries. If we or any future collaborator fail to comply with the regulatory requirements in international markets or fail to receive applicable marketing approvals, our target market will be reduced and our ability to realize the full market potential of our potential drug candidates will be harmed.
Even if we receive regulatory approval of our drug candidates, we will be subject to ongoing regulatory obligations and continued regulatory review, which may result in significant additional expense and we may be subject to penalties if we fail to comply with regulatory requirements or experience unanticipated problems with our drug candidates.
Any regulatory approvals that we receive for our drug candidates will require surveillance to monitor the safety and efficacy of the drug candidate. The FDA may also require a REMS in order to approve our drug candidates, which could entail requirements for a medication guide, physician communication plans or additional elements to ensure safe use, such as restricted distribution methods, patient registries and other risk minimization tools. In addition, if the FDA or a comparable foreign regulatory authority approves our drug candidates, the manufacturing processes, labeling, packaging, distribution, adverse event reporting, storage, advertising, promotion, import, export and recordkeeping for our drug candidates will be subject to extensive and ongoing regulatory requirements. These requirements include submissions of safety and other post-marketing information and reports, registration, as well as continued compliance with cGMP regulations, GLP regulations and GCP regulations for any clinical trials that we conduct
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post-approval. Later discovery of previously unknown problems with our drug candidates, including adverse events of unanticipated severity or frequency, or with our third-party manufacturers or manufacturing processes, or failure to comply with regulatory requirements, may result in, among other things:
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restrictions on the marketing or manufacturing of our drug candidates, withdrawal of the drug product from the market or voluntary or mandatory product recalls;
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manufacturing delays and supply disruptions where regulatory inspections identify observations of noncompliance requiring remediation;
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revisions to the labeling, including limitation on approved uses or the addition of additional warnings, contraindications or other safety information, including boxed warnings;
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imposition of a REMS, which may include distribution or use restrictions;
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requirements to conduct additional post-market clinical trials to assess the safety of the drug product;
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fines, warning letters or holds on clinical trials;
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refusal by the FDA to approve pending applications or supplements to approved applications filed by us or suspension or revocation of approvals;
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product seizure or detention, or refusal to permit the import or export of our drug candidates; and
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injunctions or the imposition of civil or criminal penalties.
The FDA’s and other regulatory authorities’ policies may change, and additional government regulations may be enacted that could prevent, limit or delay regulatory approval of our drug candidates. If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may lose any marketing approval that we may have obtained, and we may not achieve or sustain profitability. We also cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative or executive action, either in the United States or abroad. It is difficult to predict how current and future legislation, executive actions, and litigation, including the executive orders, will be implemented, and the extent to which they will impact our business, our clinical development, and the FDA’s and other agencies’ ability to exercise their regulatory authority, including FDA’s pre-approval inspections and timely review of any regulatory filings or applications we submit to the FDA. To the extent any executive actions impose constraints on FDA’s ability to engage in oversight and implementation activities in the normal course, our business may be negatively impacted. Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Chevron doctrine, which gave deference to regulatory agencies’ statutory interpretations in litigation against federal government agencies, such as the FDA, where the law is ambiguous. This landmark Supreme Court decision may invite more companies and other stakeholders to bring lawsuits against the FDA to challenge longstanding decisions and policies of the FDA, including FDA’s statutory interpretations of market exclusivities and the “substantial evidence” requirements for drug approvals, which could undermine the FDA's authority, lead to uncertainties in the industry, and disrupt the FDA's normal operations, any of which could impact the FDA’s review of our regulatory submissions. Further, changes in the leadership of the FDA and other federal agencies under the new Trump administration may lead to new policies and changes in the regulations that could increase our compliance costs or delay our clinical development and timelines. We cannot predict the full impact of this decision, future judicial challenges brought against the FDA, or the nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative action.
Moreover, the FDA strictly regulates the promotional claims that may be made about drug products. In particular, a product may not be promoted for uses that are not approved by the FDA as reflected in the product’s approved labeling. The FDA and other agencies actively enforce the laws and regulations prohibiting the promotion of off-label uses, and a company that is found to have improperly promoted off-label uses may be subject to significant civil, criminal and administrative penalties. The occurrence of any event or penalty described above may inhibit our ability to commercialize our drug candidates and generate
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revenue and could require us to expend significant time and resources in response and could generate negative publicity.
Disruptions at the FDA, the SEC and other government agencies caused by the outcome of the 2024 federal elections, funding shortages, global health concerns, or other events could hinder their ability to hire and retain key leadership and other personnel, or otherwise prevent new or modified products from being developed, approved or commercialized in a timely manner or at all, or otherwise prevent those agencies from performing normal business functions on which the operation of our business may rely, which could negatively impact our business.
The ability of the FDA to review and approve new products can be affected by a variety of factors, including the outcome of the 2024 federal elections, changes in the administration, government budget and funding levels, ability to hire and retain key personnel and accept the payment of user fees, and statutory, regulatory, and policy changes, and other events that may otherwise affect the FDA’s ability to perform routine functions. Average review times at the agency have fluctuated in recent years as a result. In addition, government funding of the SEC, and other government agencies on which our operations may rely, including those that fund research and development activities is subject to the political process, which is inherently fluid and unpredictable.
To the extent the FDA’s normal operations are disrupted or delayed, for example due to the outcome of the 2024 federal elections, changes in the administration, travel restrictions, public health or geopolitical issues, staffing shortages, or lack of funding, the FDA may not be able to complete the necessary inspections or provide feedback in a timely manner during our clinical development or review period. If any such delays or disruptions were to occur, it could significantly impact the ability of the FDA or other regulatory authorities to timely review and process our regulatory submissions, which could have a material adverse effect on our business. Further, future government shutdowns or delays could impact our ability to access the public markets and obtain necessary capital in order to properly capitalize and continue our operations.
We may attempt to secure approval from the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities through the use of accelerated approval pathways. If we are unable to obtain such approval, we may be required to conduct additional nonclinical studies or clinical trials beyond those that we contemplate, which could increase the expense of obtaining, and delay the receipt of, necessary marketing approvals. Even if we receive accelerated approval from the FDA, if our confirmatory trials do not verify clinical benefit, or if we do not comply with rigorous postmarketing requirements, the FDA may seek to withdraw accelerated approval.
We may seek an accelerated approval for one or more of our drug candidates. Under the accelerated approval program, the FDA may grant accelerated approval to a product candidate designed to treat a serious or life-threatening condition that provides meaningful therapeutic benefit over available therapies upon a determination that the product candidate has an effect on a surrogate endpoint or intermediate clinical endpoint that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. The FDA considers a clinical benefit to be a positive therapeutic effect that is clinically meaningful in the context of a given disease, such as irreversible morbidity or mortality. For the purposes of accelerated approval, a surrogate endpoint is a marker, such as a laboratory measurement or other measure that is thought to predict clinical benefit, but is not itself a measure of clinical benefit. An intermediate clinical endpoint is a clinical endpoint that can be measured earlier than an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality that is reasonably likely to predict an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality or other clinical benefit. The accelerated approval pathway may be used in cases in which the advantage of a new drug over available therapy may not be a direct therapeutic advantage, but is a clinically important improvement from a patient and public health perspective. If granted, accelerated approval is usually contingent on the sponsor’s agreement to conduct, in a diligent manner, additional post-approval confirmatory studies to verify and describe the drug’s clinical benefit. If such post-approval studies fail to confirm the drug’s clinical benefit, the FDA may withdraw its approval of the drug.
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Prior to seeking accelerated approval for any of our drug candidates, we intend to seek feedback from the FDA and will otherwise evaluate our ability to seek and receive accelerated approval. There can be no assurance that after our evaluation of the feedback and other factors we will decide to pursue or submit an NDA for accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval. Similarly, there can be no assurance that after subsequent FDA feedback we will continue to pursue or apply for accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval, even if we initially decide to do so. Furthermore, if we decide to submit an application for accelerated approval or receive an expedited regulatory designation (e.g., breakthrough therapy designation) for our drug candidates, there can be no assurance that such submission or application will be accepted or that any expedited development, review or approval will be granted on a timely basis, or at all. The FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities could also require us to conduct further studies prior to considering our application or granting approval of any type. A failure to obtain accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval for our drug candidate would result in a longer time period to commercialization of such drug candidate, could increase the cost of development of such drug candidate and could harm our competitive position in the marketplace.
Further, to the extent the FDA materially changes its policies or regulatory requirements with respect to the accelerated approval program or its internal review process for such program, our clinical development plans and regulatory approval under such program could be materially impacted or delayed. On December 29, 2022, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, including the Food and Drug Omnibus Reform Act, or FDORA, was signed into law. FDORA made several changes to the FDA’s authorities and its regulatory framework, including, among other changes, reforms to the accelerated approval pathway, such as requiring the FDA to specify conditions for post-approval study requirements and setting forth procedures for the FDA to withdraw a product on an expedited basis for non-compliance with post-approval requirements. In January 2025, the Office of Inspector, or OIG, raised concerns with FDA’s accelerated approval of three of the 24 drugs review by OIG. It is unclear how this OIG report, future policy changes, changes in the leadership of FDA, and new FDA regulations, including those that may be implemented under the new Trump administration, will impact new drug applications and our clinical development programs.
We may face difficulties from changes to current regulations and future legislation. Healthcare legislative measures aimed at reducing healthcare costs may have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
The United States and many foreign jurisdictions have enacted or proposed legislative and regulatory changes affecting the healthcare system that could prevent or delay marketing approval of our drug candidates or any future drug candidates, restrict or regulate post-approval activities and affect our ability to profitably sell a drug product for which we obtain marketing approval. Changes in regulations, statutes or the interpretation of existing regulations could impact our business in the future by requiring, for example:
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changes to our manufacturing arrangements;
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additions or modifications to drug product labeling;
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the recall or discontinuation of our drug products; or
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additional record-keeping requirements. If any such changes were to be imposed, they could adversely affect the operation of our business.
In the United States, there have been and continue to be a number of legislative initiatives to contain healthcare costs. For example, in March 2010, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, or collectively, ACA, was passed, which substantially changed the way healthcare is financed by both governmental and private insurers, and significantly impacted the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. The ACA contained provisions that may reduce the profitability of drug products through increased rebates for drugs reimbursed by Medicaid programs, extension of Medicaid rebates to Medicaid managed care plans, mandatory discounts for certain Medicare Part D beneficiaries and annual fees based on pharmaceutical companies’ share of sales to federal health
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care programs. The Medicaid Drug Rebate Program requires pharmaceutical manufacturers to enter into and have in effect a national rebate agreement with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary, or HHS Secretary, as a condition for states to receive federal matching funds for the manufacturer’s outpatient drugs furnished to Medicaid patients. The ACA made several changes to the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, including increasing the minimum Medicaid rebates owed by manufacturers under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, extending the rebate program to individuals enrolled in Medicaid managed care organizations. The ACA also established annual fees and taxes on manufacturers of certain branded prescription drugs, and created a new Medicare Part D coverage gap discount program, in which manufacturers must agree to offer 70% (increased pursuant to the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, effective as of 2019) point-of-sale discounts off negotiated prices of applicable brand drugs to eligible beneficiaries during their coverage gap period, as a condition for the manufacturer’s outpatient drugs to be covered under Medicare Part D. In December 2020, CMS issued a final rule implementing significant manufacturer price reporting changes under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, including regulations that affect manufacturer-sponsored patient assistance programs subject to pharmacy benefit manager accumulator programs and Best Price reporting related to certain value-based purchasing arrangements. Under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, effective January 1, 2024, the statutory cap on Medicaid Drug Rebate Program rebates that manufacturers pay to state Medicaid programs will be eliminated. Elimination of this cap may require pharmaceutical manufacturers to pay more in rebates than it receives on the sale of products, which could have a material impact on our business.
As discussed above, since its enactment, there have been judicial and Congressional challenges to certain aspects of the ACA. On January 28, 2021, President Biden issued an executive order to initiate a special enrollment period for purposes of obtaining health insurance coverage through the ACA marketplace, which also instructs certain governmental agencies to review and reconsider their existing policies and rules that limit access to healthcare. In June 2021, the United States Supreme Court held that Texas and other challengers had no legal standing to challenge the ACA, dismissing the case without specifically ruling on the constitutionality of the ACA. Further, on August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, or IRA, into law, which among other things, extends enhanced subsidies for individuals purchasing health insurance coverage in ACA marketplaces through plan year 2025. The IRA also eliminates the “donut hole” under the Medicare Part D program beginning in 2025 by significantly lowering the beneficiary maximum out-of-pocket cost through a newly established manufacturer discount program. It is possible that the ACA will be subject to judicial or Congressional challenges in the future. It is unclear how additional challenges and healthcare reform measures of the Biden administration will impact the ACA. Complying with any new legislation and regulatory requirements could be time-intensive and expensive, resulting in a material adverse effect on our business.
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 also amended the ACA, effective January 1, 2019, by increasing the point-of-sale discount that is owed by pharmaceutical manufacturers who participate in Medicare Part D and closing the coverage gap in most Medicare drug plans, commonly referred to as the “donut hole.” CMS published a final rule permitting further collections and payments to and from certain ACA qualified health plans and health insurance issuers under the ACA risk adjustment program in response to the outcome of federal district court litigation regarding the method CMS uses to determine this risk adjustment. In addition, CMS has published a final rule to give states greater flexibility, starting in 2020, in setting benchmarks for insurers in the individual and small group marketplaces, which may have the effect of relaxing the essential health benefits required under the ACA for plans sold through such marketplaces. The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, or ATRA, among other things, reduced Medicare payments to several providers, including hospitals, and increased the statute of limitations period for the government to recover overpayments to providers from three to five years. Other legislative changes include aggregate reductions to Medicare payments to providers of up to 2% per fiscal year pursuant to the Budget Control Act of 2011, which began in 2013 and will remain in effect through 2032 with the exception of a temporary suspension implemented under various COVID-19 relief legislation.
There has been increasing legislative and enforcement interest in the United States with respect to specialty drug pricing practices. Specifically, there have been several recent U.S. Congressional inquiries and proposed federal and state legislation designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to drug pricing, reduce the cost of prescription drugs under Medicare, review the relationship between pricing
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and manufacturer patient programs, and reform government program reimbursement methodologies for drugs. For example, in July 2021, the Biden administration released an executive order, “Promoting Competition in the American Economy,” with multiple provisions aimed at increasing competition for prescription drugs. In August 2022, Congress passed the IRA, which includes prescription drug provisions that have significant implications for the pharmaceutical industry and Medicare beneficiaries, including allowing the federal government to negotiate a maximum fair price for certain high-priced single source Medicare drugs, imposing penalties and excise tax for manufacturers that fail to comply with the drug price negotiation requirements, requiring inflation rebates for all Medicare Part B and Part D drugs, with limited exceptions, if their drug prices increase faster than inflation, and redesigning Medicare Part D to reduce out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for beneficiaries, among other changes. Further, the Biden administration released an additional executive order on October 14, 2022, directing the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, or HHS, to submit a report within ninety (90) days on how the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation can be further leveraged to test new models for lowering drug costs for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries. Various industry stakeholders, including pharmaceutical companies, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Infusion Center Association, the Global Colon Cancer Association, and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, have initiated lawsuits against the federal government asserting that the price negotiation provisions of IRA are unconstitutional. The impact of these judicial challenges as well as other judicial challenges in view of the Supreme Court’s overruling of the Chevron doctrine, other legislative, executive, and administrative actions and any future healthcare measures and agency rules implemented by the new Trump administration on us and the pharmaceutical industry as a whole is unclear. The implementation of cost containment measures or other healthcare reforms may prevent us from being able to generate revenue, attain profitability, or commercialize our drug candidates if approved.
Current and future CMS coverage restrictions on classes of drugs that encompass our drug candidates could have a material adverse impact on our ability to commercialize our drug candidates, if approved, generate revenue and attain profitability. It is unclear how future CMS coverage decisions and policies will impact our business.
At the state level, individual states are increasingly aggressive in passing legislation and implementing regulations designed to control pharmaceutical and biological product pricing, including price or patient reimbursement constraints, discounts, restrictions on certain product access and marketing cost disclosure and transparency measures, and, in some cases, designed to encourage importation from other countries and bulk purchasing. In addition, regional health care authorities and individual hospitals are increasingly using bidding procedures to determine what pharmaceutical products and which suppliers will be included in their prescription drug and other health care programs. These measures could reduce the ultimate demand for our drug products, once approved, or put pressure on our drug product pricing. A number of states are considering or have recently enacted state drug price transparency and reporting laws that could substantially increase our compliance burdens and expose us to greater liability under such state laws once we begin commercialization after obtaining regulatory approval for any of our drug products. Further, FDA recently authorized the state of Florida to develop Section 804 Importation Programs to import certain prescription drugs from Canada for a period of two years to help reduce drug costs, provided that Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration meets the requirements set forth by the FDA. Other states may follow Florida. We expect that additional state and federal healthcare reform measures will be adopted in the future, any of which could limit the amounts that federal and state governments will pay for healthcare products and services, which could result in reduced demand for our drug candidates or additional pricing pressures.
Our revenue prospects could be affected by changes in healthcare spending and policy in the United States and abroad. We operate in a highly regulated industry and new laws, regulations or judicial decisions, or new interpretations of existing laws, regulations or decisions, related to healthcare availability, the method of delivery or payment for healthcare products and services could negatively impact our business, operations and financial condition.
There have been, and likely will continue to be, legislative and regulatory proposals at the foreign, federal and state levels directed at broadening the availability of healthcare and containing or lowering the
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cost of healthcare. We cannot predict the initiatives that may be adopted in the future, including repeal, replacement or significant revisions to the ACA. The continuing efforts of the government, insurance companies, managed care organizations and other payors of healthcare services to contain or reduce costs of healthcare or impose price controls may adversely affect:
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the demand for our drug candidates, if we obtain regulatory approval;
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our ability to set a price that we believe is fair for our drug products;
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our ability to obtain coverage and reimbursement approval for a drug product;
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our ability to generate revenue and achieve or maintain profitability;
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the level of taxes that we are required to pay; and
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the availability of capital.
Any reduction in reimbursement from Medicare or other government programs may result in a similar reduction in payments from private payors, which may adversely affect our future profitability.
We expect that other healthcare reform measures that may be adopted in the future, may result in more rigorous coverage criteria and in additional downward pressure on the price that we receive for any approved drug product. Any reduction in reimbursement from Medicare or other government programs may result in a similar reduction in payments from private payors. The implementation of cost containment measures or other healthcare reforms may prevent us from being able to generate revenue, attain profitability or commercialize our drug candidates. Legislative and regulatory proposals have been made to expand post-approval requirements and restrict sales and promotional activities for biotechnology products. We cannot be sure to what extent the trajectory of these legislative and regulatory proposals will be implemented by the federal and state governments, whether additional legislative changes will be enacted, whether FDA regulations, guidance or interpretations will be changed, or what the impact of such changes on the marketing approvals of our drug candidates, if any, may be. In addition, increased scrutiny by Congress of the FDA’s approval process may significantly delay or prevent marketing approval, as well as subject us to more stringent product labeling and post-marketing testing and other requirements.
Our relationships with healthcare professionals, clinical investigators, CROs and third party payors in connection with our current and future business activities, and our participation in the federal health care programs and acceptance of federal grant funding, such as funding from the NIH, may be subject to federal and state healthcare fraud and abuse laws, false claims laws, transparency laws, government price reporting, and health information privacy and security laws, which could expose us to, among other things, criminal sanctions, civil penalties, contractual damages, exclusion from governmental healthcare programs, reputational harm, administrative burdens and diminished profits and future earnings.
Healthcare providers and third-party payors play a primary role in the recommendation and prescription of any drug candidates for which we obtain marketing approval. Our current and future arrangements with healthcare professionals, clinical investigators, CROs, third-party payors and customers may expose us to broadly applicable fraud and abuse and other healthcare laws and regulations that may constrain the business or financial arrangements and relationships through which we market, sell and distribute our drug products for which we obtain marketing approval. Similarly, our participation in the federal health care programs and acceptance of federal grant funding from the NIH may subject us to federal false claims laws, civil penalties and assessments, criminal prosecution, and other administrative, civil, and criminal remedies.
The laws that may affect our ability to operate include, but are not limited to:
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the federal Anti-Kickback Statute, which prohibits, among other things, persons from knowingly and willfully soliciting, receiving, offering or paying any remuneration (including any kickback, bribe, or rebate), directly or indirectly, overtly or covertly, in cash or in kind, to induce, or in return for, either the referral of an individual, or the purchase, lease, order or recommendation of any
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good, facility, item or service for which payment may be made, in whole or in part, under a federal healthcare program, such as the Medicare and Medicaid programs. A person or entity does not need to have actual knowledge of the statute or specific intent to violate it in order to have committed a violation. Violations are subject to civil and criminal fines and penalties for each violation, plus up to three times the remuneration involved, imprisonment, and exclusion from government healthcare programs. In addition, the government may assert that a claim including items or services resulting from a violation of the federal Anti-Kickback Statute constitutes a false or fraudulent claim for purposes of the False Claims Act, or FCA. There are a number of statutory exceptions and regulatory safe harbors protecting some common activities from prosecution, but the exceptions and safe harbors are drawn narrowly and require strict compliance in order to offer protection.
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federal civil and criminal false claims laws, including the FCA, which can be enforced through civil “qui tam” or “whistleblower” actions, and civil monetary penalty laws, impose criminal and civil penalties against individuals or entities for, among other things, knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, claims for payment or approval from Medicare, Medicaid, or other federal health care programs that are false or fraudulent; knowingly making or causing a false statement material to a false or fraudulent claim or an obligation to pay money to the federal government; or knowingly concealing or knowingly and improperly avoiding or decreasing such an obligation. Manufacturers can be held liable under the FCA even when they do not submit claims directly to government payors if they are deemed to “cause” the submission of false or fraudulent claims. The FCA also permits a private individual acting as a “whistleblower” to bring actions on behalf of the federal government alleging violations of the FCA and to share in any monetary recovery. When an entity is determined to have violated the federal civil FCA, the government may impose civil fines and penalties for each false claim, plus treble damages, and exclude the entity from participation in Medicare, Medicaid and other federal healthcare programs. Under the FCA, a “claim” also includes any request (including grant request) or demand for money or property made to the United States or to a contractor, recipient, if the Federal government provides or will reimburse any portion of the funds claimed. “Funds” include money that the NIH awards as part of research grants. Even if a federal grant is not awarded, the grant applicant may be subject to FCA liability if the information contained in or submitted as part of a grant application, including its certifications and assurances, is found to be false, fictitious, or fraudulent.
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the federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, or HIPAA, which created new federal criminal statutes that prohibit knowingly and willfully executing, or attempting to execute, a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program or obtain, by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, any of the money or property owned by, or under the custody or control of, any healthcare benefit program, regardless of the payor (e.g., public or private) and knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up by any trick or device a material fact or making any materially false statements in connection with the delivery of, or payment for, healthcare benefits, items or services relating to healthcare matters. Similar to the federal Anti-Kickback Statute, a person or entity can be found guilty of violating HIPAA without actual knowledge of the statute or specific intent to violate it.
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HIPAA, as amended by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act of 2009, or HITECH, and their respective implementing regulations, which impose requirements on certain covered healthcare providers, health plans, and healthcare clearinghouses as well as their respective business associates and their subcontractors that perform services for them that involve the use, or disclosure of, individually identifiable health information, relating to the privacy, security and transmission of individually identifiable health information without appropriate authorization. HITECH also created new tiers of civil monetary penalties, amended HIPAA to make civil and criminal penalties directly applicable to business associates, and gave state attorneys general new authority to file civil actions for damages or injunctions in federal courts to enforce the federal HIPAA laws and seek attorneys’ fees and costs associated with pursuing federal civil actions.
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the federal Physician Payments Sunshine Act, created under the ACA and its implementing regulations, which require manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologicals and medical supplies for which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (with certain exceptions) to report annually to CMS information related to payments or other transfers of value made to covered recipients, including physicians (defined to include doctors, dentists, optometrists, podiatrists and chiropractors), certain non-physician healthcare professionals (such as physician assistants and nurse practitioners, among others), and teaching hospitals, as well as information regarding ownership and investment interests held by physicians and their immediate family members.
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federal consumer protection and unfair competition laws, which broadly regulate marketplace activities and activities that potentially harm consumers.
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analogous state and foreign laws and regulations, such as state and foreign anti-kickback, false claims, consumer protection and unfair competition laws which may apply to pharmaceutical business practices, including but not limited to, research, distribution, sales and marketing arrangements as well as submitting claims involving healthcare items or services reimbursed by any third-party payor, including commercial insurers; state laws that require pharmaceutical companies to comply with the pharmaceutical industry’s voluntary compliance guidelines and the relevant compliance guidance promulgated by the federal government that otherwise restricts payments that may be made to healthcare providers and other potential referral sources; state laws that require drug manufacturers to file reports with states regarding pricing and marketing information, such as the tracking and reporting of gifts, compensations and other remuneration and items of value provided to healthcare professionals and entities; state and local laws requiring the registration of pharmaceutical sales representatives; and state and foreign laws governing the privacy and security of health information in certain circumstances, many of which differ from each other in significant ways and may not have the same effect, thus complicating compliance efforts.
Because of the breadth of these laws and the narrowness of available statutory exceptions and regulatory safe harbors, it is possible that some of our business activities, including our advisory board arrangements with physicians, some of whom receive stock or stock options as compensation for services provided, and any sales and marketing activities after a drug candidate has been approved for marketing in the United States, could be subject to legal challenge and enforcement actions. If our operations are found to be in violation of any of the federal and state laws described above or any other governmental regulations that apply to us, we may be subject to significant civil, criminal, and administrative penalties, including, without limitation, damages, fines, disgorgement, imprisonment, exclusion from participation in government healthcare programs, additional reporting obligations and oversight if we become subject to a corporate integrity agreement or other agreement to resolve allegations of non-compliance with these laws, and the curtailment or restructuring of our operations, any of which could adversely affect our ability to operate our business and our results of operations.
Our employees, independent contractors, consultants, commercial collaborators, principal investigators, CROs, suppliers and vendors may engage in misconduct or other improper activities, including noncompliance with regulatory standards and requirements.
In addition to the risks relating to the outcome of the independent special committee’s investigation noted above, we are exposed to the risk that our employees, independent contractors, consultants, commercial collaborators, principal investigators, CROs, suppliers and vendors may engage in misconduct or other improper activities. Misconduct by these parties could include failures to comply with FDA regulations, provide accurate information to the FDA, comply with federal and state health care fraud and abuse laws and regulations, accurately report financial information or data or disclose unauthorized activities to us. In particular, sales, marketing and business arrangements in the health care industry are subject to extensive laws and regulations intended to prevent fraud, misconduct, kickbacks, self-dealing and other abusive practices. These laws and regulations may restrict or prohibit a wide range of pricing, discounting, marketing and promotion, sales commission, customer incentive programs and other business arrangements. Misconduct by these parties could also involve the improper use of information obtained in
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the course of clinical trials, which could result in regulatory sanctions and serious harm to our reputation. It is not always possible to identify and deter misconduct by these parties, and the precautions we take to detect and prevent this activity may not be effective in controlling unknown or unmanaged risks or losses or in protecting us from governmental investigations or other actions or lawsuits stemming from a failure to comply with these laws or regulations. If any such actions are instituted against us, and we are not successful in defending ourselves or asserting our rights, those actions could have a significant impact on our business, including the imposition of significant penalties, including civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, fines, disgorgement, imprisonment, exclusion from participation in government funded healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, integrity oversight and reporting obligations, contractual damages, reputational harm, diminished profits and future earnings and the curtailment or restructuring of our operations.
If we fail to comply with environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, we could become subject to fines or penalties or incur costs that could have a material adverse effect on the success of our business.
We are subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, including those governing laboratory procedures and the handling, use, storage, treatment and disposal of hazardous materials and wastes. Our operations involve the use of hazardous and flammable materials, including chemicals and biological and radioactive materials. Our operations also produce hazardous waste products. We generally contract with third parties for the disposal of these materials and wastes. We cannot eliminate the risk of contamination or injury from these materials. In the event of contamination or injury resulting from our use of hazardous materials, we could be held liable for any resulting damages, and any liability could exceed our resources. We also could incur significant costs associated with civil or criminal fines and penalties. Although we maintain workers’ compensation insurance to cover us for costs and expenses we may incur due to injuries to our employees resulting from the use of hazardous materials, this insurance may not provide adequate coverage against potential liabilities. We do not maintain insurance for environmental liability or toxic tort claims that may be asserted against us in connection with our storage or disposal of biological, hazardous or radioactive materials.
In addition, we may incur substantial costs in order to comply with current or future environmental, health and safety laws and regulations. These current or future laws and regulations may impair our research, development or commercialization efforts. Failure to comply with these laws and regulations also may result in substantial fines, penalties or other sanctions.
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We are subject to certain U.S. and foreign anti-corruption, anti-money laundering, export control, sanctions, and other trade laws and regulations. We can face serious consequences for violations.
Among other matters, U.S. and foreign anti-corruption, anti-money laundering, export control, sanctions, and other trade laws and regulations, which are collectively referred to as Trade Laws, prohibit companies and their employees, agents, clinical research organizations, legal counsel, accountants, consultants, contractors, and other partners from authorizing, promising, offering, providing, soliciting, or receiving directly or indirectly, corrupt or improper payments or anything else of value to or from recipients in the public or private sector. Violations of trade laws can result in substantial criminal fines and civil penalties, imprisonment, the loss of trade privileges, debarment, tax reassessments, breach of contract and fraud litigation, reputational harm, and other consequences. We have direct or indirect interactions with officials and employees of government agencies or government-affiliated hospitals, universities, and other organizations. We also expect our non-U.S. activities to increase in time. We plan to engage third parties for clinical trials or to obtain necessary permits, licenses, patent registrations, and other regulatory approvals and we can be held liable for the corrupt or other illegal activities of our personnel, agents, or partners, even if we do not explicitly authorize or have prior knowledge of such activities.
Risks Related to Our Reliance on Third Parties
We may use strategic collaborations, licensing arrangements or partnerships to accelerate the development and maximize the commercial potential of our programs, and we may not realize the benefits of such collaborations, arrangements or partnerships.
We own or in-license worldwide intellectual property rights to our pipeline of small molecule candidates. Where appropriate, we may use strategic collaborations, licensing arrangements or partnerships to accelerate the development and maximize the commercial potential of our programs. For example, we are actively seeking a partner to assist with the development of ATH-1105 through a joint collaboration agreement, provision of non-dilutive funding, or a combination of these and other structures. Any of these relationships may require us to incur non-recurring and other charges, increase our near and long-term expenditures, issue securities that dilute our existing stockholders or disrupt our management and business.
We face significant competition in seeking appropriate strategic partners and the negotiation process is time-consuming and complex. Moreover, we may not be successful in our efforts to establish a strategic partnership or other alternative arrangements for our drug candidates because they may be deemed to be at too early of a stage of development for collaborative effort and third parties may not view our drug candidates as having the requisite potential to demonstrate safety and efficacy and obtain marketing approval.
If and when we seek to enter into collaborations, we may not be able to negotiate collaborations on a timely basis, on acceptable terms, or at all. If we are unable to do so, we may have to curtail the development of a drug candidate, reduce or delay its development program or one or more of our other development programs, delay its potential commercialization or reduce the scope of any sales or marketing activities, or increase our expenditures and undertake development or commercialization activities at our own expense. If we elect to increase our expenditures to fund development or commercialization activities on our own, we may need to obtain additional capital, which may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. If we do not have sufficient funds, we may not be able to further develop our drug candidates or bring them to market and generate product revenue.
Even if we are successful in entering into collaborations involving our drug candidates, these relationships are subject to numerous risks, which may include the following:
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collaborators have significant discretion in determining the efforts and resources that they will apply to a collaboration;
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collaborators may not pursue development and commercialization of our drug candidates or may elect not to continue or renew development or commercialization of our drug candidates based on clinical trial results, changes in their strategic focus due to the acquisition of
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competitive products, availability of funding or other external factors, such as a business combination that diverts resources or creates competing priorities;
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collaborators may delay clinical trials, provide insufficient funding for a clinical trial, stop a clinical trial, abandon a drug candidate, repeat or conduct new clinical trials or require a new formulation of a drug candidate for clinical testing;
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collaborators could independently develop, or develop with third parties, products that compete directly or indirectly with our drug candidates;
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a collaborator with marketing and distribution rights to one or more drug products may not commit sufficient resources to their marketing and distribution;
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collaborators may not properly maintain or defend our intellectual property rights or may use our intellectual property or proprietary information in a way that gives rise to actual or threatened litigation that could jeopardize or invalidate our intellectual property or proprietary information or expose us to potential liability;
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disputes may arise between us and a collaborator that cause the delay or termination of the research, development or commercialization of our drug candidates, or that result in costly litigation or arbitration that diverts management attention and resources;
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collaborations may be terminated and, if terminated, may result in a need for additional capital to pursue further development or commercialization of the applicable drug candidates; and
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collaborators may own or co-own intellectual property covering our drug products that results from our collaborating with them, and in such cases, we would not have the exclusive right to commercialize such intellectual property.
As a result, if we enter into additional strategic collaborations, licensing arrangements or partnerships, we may not be able to realize the benefit of such transactions if we are unable to successfully integrate them with our existing operations and company culture, which could delay our timelines or otherwise adversely affect our business. We also cannot be certain that, following a strategic collaboration, licensing arrangement or partnership, we will achieve the revenue or specific net income that justifies such transaction. Any delays in entering into new strategic collaborations, licensing arrangements or partnerships related to our drug candidates could delay the development and commercialization of our drug candidates in certain geographies for certain indications, which would harm our business prospects, financial condition and results of operations.
If we engage in future acquisitions or strategic partnerships, this may increase our capital requirements, dilute our stockholders, cause us to incur debt or assume contingent liabilities, and subject us to other risks.
From time to time, we evaluate various acquisition opportunities and strategic transactions and partnerships, including licensing or acquiring complementary products, intellectual property rights, technologies or businesses. Any potential acquisition or strategic partnership may entail numerous risks, including:
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increased operating expenses and cash requirements;
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the assumption of additional indebtedness or contingent liabilities;
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the issuance of our equity securities;
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assimilation of operations, intellectual property and products of an acquired company, including difficulties associated with integrating new personnel;
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the diversion of our management’s attention from our existing programs and initiatives in pursuing such a strategic merger or acquisition;
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retention of key employees, the loss of key personnel and uncertainties in our ability to maintain key business relationships;
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risks and uncertainties associated with the other party to such a transaction, including the prospects of that party and their existing products or product candidates and marketing approvals; and
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our inability to generate revenue from acquired technology or products sufficient to meet our objectives in undertaking the acquisition or even to offset the associated acquisition and maintenance costs.
In addition, if we undertake acquisitions or pursue partnerships in the future, we may issue dilutive securities, assume or incur debt obligations, incur large one-time expenses and acquire intangible assets that could result in significant future amortization expense.
We rely on third parties to conduct our nonclinical studies and clinical trials. If these third parties do not properly and successfully carry out their contractual duties or meet expected deadlines, we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval of or commercialize our drug candidates.
We utilize and depend upon independent investigators and collaborators, such as medical institutions, CROs, CMOs, and strategic partners to conduct and support our nonclinical studies and clinical trials under agreements with us.
We expect to have to negotiate budgets and contracts with CROs, clinical trial sites and CMOs and we may not be able to do so on favorable terms, which may result in delays to our development timelines and increased costs. We will rely heavily on these third parties over the course of our nonclinical studies and clinical trials, and we control only certain aspects of their activities. As a result, we will have less direct control over the conduct, timing and completion of these nonclinical studies and clinical trials and the management of data developed through nonclinical studies and clinical trials than would be the case if we were relying entirely upon our own staff. Nevertheless, we are responsible for ensuring that each of our studies is conducted in accordance with applicable protocol, legal and regulatory requirements and scientific standards, and our reliance on third parties does not relieve us of our regulatory responsibilities. We and these third parties are required to comply with GCPs, which are regulations and guidelines enforced by the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities for drug candidates in clinical development. Regulatory authorities enforce these GCPs through periodic inspections of clinical trial sponsors, principal investigators and clinical trial sites. If we or any of these third parties fail to comply with applicable GCP regulations, the clinical data generated in our clinical trials may be deemed unreliable and the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require us to perform additional clinical trials before approving our marketing applications. In particular, protocol deviations or non-compliance with GCP requirements, or other data integrity reasons, can cause us or the FDA or other regulatory authorities to exclude data from non-compliant sites or investigators, which may cause the trial to be underpowered to meet the endpoints. We cannot assure you that, upon inspection, such regulatory authorities will determine that any of our clinical trials comply with the GCP regulations. In addition, our clinical trials must be conducted with pharmaceutical drug product produced under cGMP regulations and will require a large number of test patients. Our failure or any failure by these third parties to comply with these regulations or to recruit a sufficient number of patients may require us to repeat clinical trials, which would delay the regulatory approval process. Moreover, our business may be implicated if any of these third parties violates federal or state fraud and abuse or false claims laws and regulations or healthcare privacy and security laws.
Any third parties conducting our clinical trials are not and will not be our employees and, except for remedies available to us under our agreements with such third parties, we cannot control whether or not they devote sufficient time and resources to our ongoing, clinical and non-clinical drug candidates. These third parties may also have relationships with other commercial entities, including our competitors, for whom they may also be conducting clinical trials or other drug development activities, which could affect their
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performance on our behalf. If these third parties do not successfully carry out their contractual duties or obligations or meet expected deadlines, if they need to be replaced or if the quality or accuracy of the clinical data they obtain is compromised due to the failure to adhere to our clinical protocols or regulatory requirements or for other reasons, our clinical trials may be extended, delayed or terminated and we may not be able to complete development of, obtain regulatory approval of or successfully commercialize our drug candidates. As a result, our financial results and the commercial prospects for our drug candidates would be harmed, our costs could increase and our ability to generate revenue could be delayed.
Switching or adding third parties to conduct our nonclinical studies and clinical trials involves substantial cost and requires extensive management time and focus. In addition, there is a natural transition period when a new third party commences work. As a result, delays occur, which can materially impact our ability to meet our desired clinical development timelines.
We contract with third parties for the manufacture of our drug candidates for nonclinical studies and our clinical trials, and expect to continue to do so for additional clinical trials and ultimately for commercialization. This reliance on third parties increases the risk that we will not have sufficient quantities of our drug candidates or drugs or such quantities at an acceptable cost, which could delay, prevent or impair our development or commercialization efforts.
We do not currently have the infrastructure or internal capability to manufacture supplies of our drug candidates for use in development and commercialization. We rely, and expect to continue to rely, on third-party manufacturers for the production of our drug candidates for nonclinical studies and clinical trials under the guidance of members of our organization. We do not have long-term supply agreements. Furthermore, the raw materials for our drug candidates are sourced, in some cases, from a single-source supplier and sometimes involve long lead times from order to receipt of the materials. If we were to experience an unexpected loss of supply of any of our drug candidates or any of our future drug candidates for any reason, whether as a result of manufacturing, supply or storage issues or otherwise, we could experience delays, disruptions, suspensions or terminations of, or be required to restart or repeat, any pending or ongoing clinical trials. We expect to continue to rely on third-party manufacturers for the commercial supply of any of our drug candidates for which we obtain marketing approval. We may be unable to maintain or establish required agreements with third-party manufacturers or to do so on acceptable terms. Even if we are able to establish agreements with third-party manufacturers, reliance on third-party manufacturers entails additional risks, including:
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the failure of the third party to manufacture our drug candidates according to our schedule, or at all, including if our third-party contractors give greater priority to the supply of other products over our drug candidates or otherwise do not satisfactorily perform according to the terms of the agreements between us and them;
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the reduction or termination of production or deliveries by suppliers, or the raising of prices or renegotiation of terms;
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the termination or nonrenewal of arrangements or agreements by our third-party contractors at a time that is costly or inconvenient for us;
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the breach by the third-party contractors of our agreements with them;
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the failure of third-party contractors to comply with applicable regulatory requirements;
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the failure of the third party to manufacture our drug candidates according to our specifications;
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the mislabeling of clinical supplies, potentially resulting in the wrong dose amounts being supplied or active drug or placebo not being properly identified;
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clinical supplies not being delivered to clinical sites on time, leading to clinical trial interruptions, or of drug supplies not being distributed to commercial vendors in a timely manner, resulting in lost sales; and
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the misappropriation of our proprietary information, including our trade secrets and know-how.
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We do not have complete control over all aspects of the manufacturing process of, and are dependent on, our contract manufacturing partners for compliance with cGMP regulations for manufacturing both active drug substances and finished drug products. Third-party manufacturers may not be able to comply with cGMP regulations or similar regulatory requirements outside of the United States. If our contract manufacturers cannot successfully manufacture material that conforms to our specifications and the strict regulatory requirements of the FDA or others, they will not be able to secure or maintain marketing approval for their manufacturing facilities. In addition, we do not have control over the ability of our contract manufacturers to maintain adequate quality control, quality assurance and qualified personnel. If the FDA or a comparable foreign regulatory authority does not approve these facilities for the manufacture of our drug candidates or if it withdraws any such approval in the future, we may need to find alternative manufacturing facilities, which would significantly impact our ability to develop, obtain marketing approval for or market our drug candidates, if approved. Our failure, or the failure of our third-party manufacturers, to comply with applicable regulations could result in sanctions being imposed on us, including fines, injunctions, civil penalties, delays, suspension or withdrawal of approvals, license revocation, seizures or recalls of drug candidates or drugs, operating restrictions and criminal prosecutions, any of which could significantly and adversely affect supplies of our drug candidates or drugs and harm our business and results of operations. Our current and anticipated future dependence upon others for the manufacture of our drug candidates or drugs may adversely affect our future profit margins and our ability to commercialize any drug candidates that receive marketing approval on a timely and competitive basis.