ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS.
The following risks are considered material to John Deere’s business based upon current knowledge, information, and assumptions. This discussion of risk factors should be considered closely in conjunction with Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, including the risks and uncertainties described in the Forward-Looking Statements, and the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. These risk factors and other forward-looking statements relate to future events, expectations, trends, and operating periods, and involve certain factors that are subject to change and important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties could affect particular lines of business, while others could affect all the Company’s businesses. Although the risks are organized by headings and each risk is discussed separately, many are interrelated. The risks described in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and the “Forward-Looking Statements” in this report are not the only risks faced by the Company.
STRATEGIC RISKS
International, national, and regional trade laws, regulations, and policies (particularly those related to or restricting global trade) and government farm programs and policies could significantly impair John Deere’s profitability and growth prospects.
International, national, and regional laws, regulations, and policies directly or indirectly related to or restricting the import and export of John Deere’s products, services, and technology, or those of our customers, including protectionist policies in particular jurisdictions, or for the benefit of favored industries or sectors, could harm John Deere’s global business. John Deere’s profitability and growth prospects are tied directly to the global marketplace. Restricted access to global markets impairs John Deere’s ability to export goods and services from its various manufacturing locations around the world and limits the ability to access raw materials and high-quality parts and components at competitive prices on a timely basis. Trade restrictions, including withdrawal from or modification of existing trade agreements, negotiation of new trade agreements, non-tariff trade barriers, local content requirements, and imposition of new or retaliatory tariffs against certain countries or covering certain products, including developments in U.S.-China trade relations and sanctions against Russia, have limited, and could continue to limit, John Deere’s ability to capitalize on current and future growth opportunities in international markets and impair John Deere’s ability to expand the business. These trade restrictions, and changes in, or uncertainty surrounding, global trade policies, may affect John Deere’s competitive position. Policies impacting exchange rates and commodity prices or those limiting the export or import of commodities could have a material adverse effect on the international flow of agricultural and other commodities that may result in a corresponding negative effect on the demand for agricultural and forestry equipment in many areas of the world. John Deere’s agricultural equipment sales could be especially harmed by such policies because farm income strongly influences sales of agricultural equipment around the world. Furthermore, trade restrictions could impede those in developing countries from achieving a higher standard of living, which could negatively impact John Deere’s future growth opportunities arising from increasing global demand for food, fuel, and infrastructure. Additionally, changes in government farm programs and policies, including direct payment and other subsidies, can significantly influence demand for agricultural equipment as well as create unequal competition for multinational companies relative to domestic companies.
Greater political, economic, and social uncertainty and the evolving globalization of businesses could significantly change the dynamics of John Deere’s competition, customer base, and product offerings and impact John Deere’s growth opportunities globally.
John Deere’s efforts to grow its businesses depend in part upon access to additional geographic markets, including, but not limited to, Argentina, Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, and its success in developing market share and operating profitably in such markets. In some cases, these countries have greater political and economic volatility, greater vulnerability to infrastructure and labor disruptions, and differing local customer product preferences and requirements than John Deere’s other markets. Having business operations in various regions and countries exposes John Deere to multiple and potentially conflicting business practices, and legal and regulatory requirements that are subject to change and are often complex and difficult to navigate, including those related to tariffs and trade regulations, investments, property ownership rights, taxation, repatriation of earnings, and advanced technologies. Expanding business operations globally also increases exposure to currency fluctuations, which can materially affect the Company’s financial results. While John Deere maintains a positive corporate image and its brands are widely recognized and valued in its traditional markets, the brands are less known in some emerging markets, which could impede John Deere’s efforts to successfully compete in these markets.
In addition, changing U.S. export controls and sanctions on China, as well as other restrictions affecting transactions involving China and Chinese parties, could affect John Deere’s ability to collect receivables, provide aftermarket warranty support for John Deere equipment, sell products, and otherwise impact John Deere’s reputation and business.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could adversely impact our business and financial results.
On February 24, 2022, John Deere suspended shipments of machines and service parts to Russia and Belarus. After assessing the impact of the Russia and Ukraine conflict on our operations within Russia, our senior management in the U.S. decided to initiate a
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voluntary employee-separation program, which reduced overall headcount in Russia. We may further reduce or discontinue operations in Russia depending on the continued evolution of the conflict, monetary, currency or payment controls, restrictions on access to financial institutions, supply and transportation challenges, sanctions and export controls and counter-sanctions, or other circumstances and considerations. Our U.S. senior management continues to closely monitor all risks to John Deere operations in the region. The broader consequences of the Russia and Ukraine conflict such as, embargoes, regional instability, geopolitical shift, access to natural gas, higher energy prices, potential retaliatory action by the Russian government, including nationalization of foreign businesses, increased tensions between the U.S. and countries in which we operate, and the extent of the conflict’s effect on the global economy, cannot be predicted, including the extent to which the conflict may heighten other risks disclosed herein. Ultimately, these or other factors could result in further loss or write-downs of other operating assets and working capital.
Negative economic conditions and outlook can materially weaken demand for John Deere’s equipment and services, limit access to funding, and result in higher funding costs.
The demand for John Deere’s products and services can be significantly reduced in an economic environment characterized by high unemployment, rising interest rates, cautious consumer spending, changes in consumer practices due to a possible recession, lower corporate earnings, and lower business investment. Negative or uncertain economic conditions that cause John Deere’s customers to lack confidence in the general economic outlook can significantly reduce their likelihood of purchasing John Deere’s equipment. The COVID pandemic, geopolitical instability, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and other global events have significantly increased economic and demand uncertainty. Some of the results of these events include supply chain challenges, inflation, high interest rates, foreign currency exchange volatility, and volatility in global capital markets. Supply chain challenges, including delays caused by shortages of raw materials, shipping containers and labor, have increased production costs and reduced our profit margins. Additionally, the cost of raw materials used in John Deere’s products and the cost of freight have increased due to heightened inflation. These adverse economic events have and may continue to adversely affect John Deere’s operations.
Sustained negative economic conditions and outlook also affect housing starts, energy prices and demand, and other construction, which dampens demand for certain construction equipment. John Deere’s turf operations and its construction and forestry segments are dependent on construction activity and have also been affected by recent adverse economic conditions. In fiscal 2022, supply constraints, shortage of turf inventory, and softening customer demand have affected our production and sales of consumer products within these segments. Decreases in construction activity and housing starts could have a material adverse effect on John Deere’s results of operations.
If negative economic conditions affect the overall farm economy, there could be a similar effect on John Deere’s agricultural equipment sales. In addition, uncertain or negative outlook with respect to pervasive U.S. fiscal issues as well as general economic conditions and outlook, such as market volatility and continued interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, have caused and could continue to cause significant changes in market liquidity conditions. Such changes could impact access to funding and associated funding costs, which could reduce the Company’s earnings and cash flows. Additionally, the Company’s investment management activities could be adversely affected by changes in the equity and bond markets, including the recent volatility of the United Kingdom’s bond market, which would negatively affect earnings.
Changing worldwide demand for food and different forms of bio-energy could affect the price of farm commodities and consequently the demand for certain John Deere equipment and could also result in higher research and development costs related to changing machine fuel requirements.
Changing worldwide demand for farm outputs to meet the world’s growing food and bio-energy demands, driven in part by government policies, including those related to climate change, and a growing world population, are likely to result in fluctuating agricultural commodity prices, which directly affect sales of agricultural equipment. Lower agricultural commodity prices directly affect farm incomes, which could negatively affect sales of agricultural equipment and result in higher credit losses. While higher commodity prices benefit John Deere’s crop-producing agricultural equipment customers, higher commodity prices also could result in greater feed costs for livestock and poultry producers, which in turn may result in lower levels of equipment purchased by these customers. Furthermore, changing bio-energy demands may cause farmers to change the types or quantities of the crops they raise, with corresponding changes in equipment demands. Finally, changes in governmental policies regulating bio-fuel utilization could affect commodity demand and commodity prices, demand for John Deere’s diesel-fueled equipment, and result in higher research and development costs related to equipment fuel standards.
John Deere may not realize the anticipated benefits of its Smart Industrial operating model and Leap Ambitions.
John Deere’s failure to realize the anticipated benefits of its Smart Industrial operating model and related business strategies in production systems, precision technologies, and aftermarket support could adversely affect the Company’s results of operations and financial condition. Several factors could impact John Deere’s ability to successfully execute the Smart Industrial operating model, including, among other things, failure to accurately assess market opportunity and the technology required to address such
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opportunity; failure to develop and introduce new technologies or lack of adoption of such technologies by John Deere’s customers; and failure to holistically execute lifecycle solutions. In addition, if the Company is unable to optimize its capital allocation in connection with the operating model, it may not be able to realize the full benefits, which could have an adverse effect on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations.
Similarly, John Deere may not realize the anticipated benefits of its Leap Ambitions and related goals in the expected timeline, or at all. As part of its Leap Ambitions framework, John Deere adopted various goals that it expects to achieve by 2026 or 2030, as applicable. John Deere may not be able to achieve these goals for a number of reasons, some of which may be out of its control. For example, John Deere’s estimates and assumptions related to efficiency of our products and the adoption of precision technology may not be accurate; certain materials, such as quality battery cells, may become unavailable or too costly; or infrastructure required to achieve our goals, such as sufficient charging stations, may become too costly or may not occur on the expected timeline. The actual or perceived failure to achieve our Leap Ambitions could negatively impact our ability to execute the Smart Industrial operating model, and could harm our reputation and our business.
John Deere may not realize all anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures, and divestitures, or these benefits may take longer to realize than expected.
From time to time, John Deere makes strategic acquisitions and divestitures and participates in joint ventures. In an effort to enhance its Smart Industrial operating model by adding technology and talent, during fiscal year 2022, the Company acquired majority ownership in Kreisel Electric Inc., which designs and manufactures high-durability battery packs and high-powered charging stations; a 40 percent equity method investment in GUSS Automation LLC, a producer of semi-autonomous orchard and vineyard sprayers; and LGT, LLC (Light), which specializes in depth sensing and camera-based perception for autonomous vehicles.
Acquisitions and joint ventures that John Deere has entered, or may enter in the future, may involve significant challenges and risks, including that the acquisitions or joint ventures do not advance John Deere’s business strategy or fail to produce satisfactory returns on investment. John Deere may encounter difficulties in integrating acquisitions with its operations, applying internal control processes to these acquisitions, managing strategic investments, and assimilating new capabilities to meet the future needs of John Deere’s businesses. Integrating acquisitions is often costly and may require significant attention from management. Furthermore, John Deere may not realize all the anticipated benefits of acquisitions or joint ventures, or the realized benefits may be significantly delayed. While our evaluation of any potential transaction includes business, legal, and financial due diligence with the goal of identifying and evaluating the material risks involved, these due diligence reviews may not identify all of the issues necessary to accurately estimate the cost and potential risks of a particular acquisition or joint venture, including potential exposure to regulatory sanctions resulting from an acquisition target’s or joint venture partner’s previous activities or costs associated with any quality issues with an acquisition target's or joint venture’s products or services.
John Deere may decide to divest businesses if it determines any such divestiture is in the best interests of its shareholders, and joint ventures may be terminated at or before their stated expiration, such as the joint venture between the Company and Hitachi, which the Company agreed to voluntarily terminate in fiscal 2021. Divestitures of businesses or dissolutions of joint ventures may involve significant challenges and risks, including failure to advance our business strategy, costs or disruptions to John Deere, and negative effects on John Deere’s product offerings, which may adversely affect John Deere’s business, results of operations, and financial condition. Divestitures of businesses or dissolutions of joint ventures may result in ongoing financial or legal involvement in the divested business through indemnifications or other financial arrangements, such as retained liabilities, which could affect the Company’s future financial results.
John Deere’s ability to understand its customers’ specific preferences and requirements, and to develop, manufacture, and market products that meet customer demand, could significantly affect its business results.
John Deere’s ability to match new product offerings to diverse global customers’ anticipated preferences for different types and sizes of equipment and various equipment features and functionality, at affordable prices, is critical to its success. This requires a thorough understanding of John Deere’s existing and potential customers on a global basis, particularly in growth markets such as Argentina, Brazil, and India. Failure to deliver quality products that meet customer needs at competitive prices ahead of competitors could have a significant adverse effect on John Deere’s business.
Customer preferences in the markets served by John Deere could change as these markets transition to less carbon-intensive business models. Ongoing social and regulatory focus on sustainability and the impact of policies and consumer preferences on the construction, forestry, and agriculture industries mean that change is imminent. As regulations and social pressure drive change, John Deere must be proactive in monitoring trends and developing alternatives and enhancements that complement our product offerings. For example, the Company may be unable to keep up with the rising demand for electric agriculture, turf, and construction equipment.
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The development of alternative farming techniques, carbon sequestration technologies, and new low-carbon biofuels, could change farmers’ business models and equipment needs. If John Deere fails to properly develop or invest in new technologies to meet changing customer demands, John Deere will be at risk of losing potential sources of revenue, which could affect the Company’s future financial results.
The inability to accurately forecast customer demand for products and services, and to adequately manage inventory, could adversely affect our operating results.
To ensure adequate inventory supply, John Deere must forecast inventory needs and expenses and place orders sufficiently in advance with suppliers and contract manufacturers. These forecasts are based on estimates of future demand for particular products and services. Failure to accurately forecast our needs may result in unmet market demand, parts shortages, manufacturing delays, increased costs, or excess inventory. In response to recent supply chain constraints, John Deere has worked with suppliers to ensure optimum inventory levels. John Deere’s ability to accurately forecast demand could be affected by many factors, including changes in customer demand for John Deere’s products and services, changes in demand for the products and services of competitors, unanticipated changes in general market conditions, and the weakening of economic conditions or customer confidence in future economic conditions. If the forecasts used to manage inventory are not accurate, John Deere has in the past and may in the future experience excess inventory levels, shortage of available products, or reduced manufacturing efficiencies.
If John Deere is unable to deliver precision technology and agricultural solutions to its customers, it could affect its business, results of operations, and financial condition.
John Deere’s approach to precision technology involves hardware and software, guidance, connectivity and digital solutions, automation and machine intelligence, and autonomy. To create and maintain a competitive differentiation through precision technology solutions, John Deere needs to successfully develop and introduce new precision technology solutions that improve profitability and sustainability for customers through the production systems. John Deere may make significant investments in research and development, connectivity solutions, data security for precision technology solutions, and employee training. These investments may not produce solutions that provide the desired results for customers’ profitability or sustainability outcomes. If John Deere is not able to deliver precision technology solutions with differentiated features and functionality, customers may not adopt technology solutions, which could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s reputation and business.
Changes to or reallocation of radio frequency (RF) bands could disrupt or degrade the reliability of John Deere’s high precision augmented Global Positioning System (GPS) or other RF technology, which could impair John Deere’s ability to develop and market GPS- and RF-based technology solutions as well as significantly reduce agricultural and construction customers’ profitability.
John Deere’s current and planned integrated agricultural business and equipment management systems, as well as its fleet management telematics solutions for construction equipment, depend upon the use of RF signals. These signals include, but are not limited to, GPS signals, other GPS-like satellite signals, augmented GPS services, and other RF technologies that link equipment, operations, owners, dealers, and technicians. These radio services depend on frequency allocations governed by international and national government agencies. Any international or national reallocation of frequency bands, including frequency bands segmentation and band spectrum sharing, or other modifications concerning the regulation of frequency bands, could significantly disrupt or degrade the utility and reliability of John Deere’s GPS-based products, which could negatively affect John Deere’s ability to develop and market GPS-based technology solutions. For John Deere’s agricultural customers, the inability to use high-precision augmented GPS signals or other RF signals could result in lower crop yields and higher equipment maintenance, seed, fertilizer, fuel, and wage costs. For construction customers, disrupting GPS or RF applications could result in higher fuel and equipment maintenance costs, as well as lower construction design and project management efficiencies. These cost increases could significantly reduce customers’ profitability and demand for John Deere products.
John Deere’s ability to adapt in highly competitive markets could affect its business, results of operations, and financial condition.
John Deere operates in a variety of highly competitive global and regional markets. John Deere competes worldwide with a number of other manufacturers and distributors that produce and sell similar products. In addition, John Deere’s industry is attracting non-traditional competitors, including technology-focused companies and start-up ventures. John Deere competes on the basis of product performance, innovation and quality, distribution, customer service, and price. Aggressive pricing or other strategies pursued by competitors, unanticipated product or manufacturing delays, or John Deere’s failure to price its products competitively could adversely affect its business, results of operations, and financial condition.
John Deere relies on a network of independent dealers to manage the distribution of its products. If dealers are unsuccessful with their sales and business operations, it could have an adverse effect on overall sales and revenue.
John Deere relies on the capability of its dealers to develop and implement effective sales plans to create demand among purchasers for the equipment and related products and services that the dealers purchase from John Deere. If John Deere’s dealers are not
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successful in these endeavors, then John Deere will be unable to grow its sales and revenue, which would have an adverse effect on its financial condition. In addition, the dealer channel’s ability to support and service precision technology solutions and emerging power solutions may affect customers’ acceptance and adoption rates of these products.
Dealers may have trouble funding their day-to-day cash flow needs and paying their obligations due to adverse business conditions resulting from negative economic effects or other factors. Dealers may exit or John Deere may seek to terminate relationships with certain dealers if they are unable to meet customer needs. The unplanned loss of any John Deere dealers could lead to inadequate market coverage, negative customer impressions of John Deere, and may adversely impact John Deere’s ability to collect receivables that are associated with that dealer.
ENVIRONMENTAL, CLIMATE, AND WEATHER RISKS
Unfavorable weather conditions or natural calamities that reduce agricultural production and demand for agriculture and turf equipment could directly and indirectly affect John Deere’s business.
Poor or unusual weather conditions, particularly during the planting and early growing season, can significantly affect the purchasing decisions of John Deere’s customers, particularly the purchasers of agriculture and turf equipment. The timing and quantity of rainfall are two of the most important factors in agricultural production. Insufficient levels of rain prevent farmers from planting new crops and may cause growing crops to die or result in lower yields. Excessive rain or flooding can prevent planting from occurring at optimal times and may cause crop loss through increased disease or mold growth. Temperature affects the rate of growth, maturity, and quality of crops. Temperatures outside normal ranges can also cause crop failure or decreased yields and may also affect disease incidence. Natural calamities such as regional floods, hurricanes or other storms, droughts, diseases, and pests, either as a physical effect of climate change or otherwise, have had and could in the future have significant negative effects on agricultural and livestock production. The resulting negative impact on farm income can strongly affect demand for agricultural equipment and the financial condition and credit risk of John Deere’s dealers and customers. Adverse weather conditions in a particular geographic region, particularly during the important spring selling season, may adversely affect sales of some turf equipment. Drought conditions can adversely affect sales of certain mowing equipment and unusually rainy weather can similarly cause lower sales volumes.
Governmental actions designed to address climate change and the emergence of new technologies and business models in connection with the transition to a lower-carbon economy could adversely affect John Deere and its customers.
There is global scientific consensus that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to alter the composition of Earth’s atmosphere in ways that are affecting and are expected to continue to affect the global climate. These considerations have led to new international, national, regional, and local legislative and regulatory responses. Various stakeholders, including legislators and regulators, shareholders, and non-governmental organizations, as well as companies in many business sectors, including John Deere, are continuing to look for ways to reduce GHG emissions. The regulation of GHG emissions from certain stationary or mobile sources or the imposition of carbon pricing mechanisms could result in additional costs to John Deere in the form of taxes or emission allowances, required facilities improvements, and increased energy costs, which would increase John Deere’s operating costs through higher utility, transportation, and materials costs. Increased input costs, such as fuel and fertilizer, and compliance-related costs could also affect customer operations and demand for John Deere equipment. John Deere’s financial services is subject to additional international and national European regulations relating to climate and environmental risk, which are continually evolving and could affect the lending operations and climate-risk processes developed by John Deere’s financial services. Regulators in Europe and the U.S. have also focused efforts on increased disclosure related to climate change and mitigation efforts. The SEC has included in its regulatory agenda potential rulemaking on climate change disclosures that, if adopted, could significantly increase compliance burdens and associated regulatory costs and complexity.
Increasingly stringent engine emission regulations or bans on internal combustion engines could impact John Deere’s ability to manufacture and distribute certain engines or equipment, which could negatively affect business results.
John Deere’s equipment operations must meet increasingly stringent engine emission reduction regulations throughout the world, including the European Union’s Stage V standard which limits the amount of harmful substances in exhaust gases that off-road engines can emit into the environment. In addition, governmental agencies throughout the world are enacting more stringent laws and regulations to reduce off-road engine emissions. These laws and regulations are applicable to engines manufactured by John Deere, including those used in John Deere agriculture and construction and forestry equipment. John Deere has incurred and continues to incur substantial research and development costs related to the implementation of these more rigorous laws and regulations. While John Deere has developed and is executing comprehensive plans to meet these requirements, these plans are subject to many variables that could delay or otherwise affect John Deere’s ability to manufacture and distribute certain equipment or engines, which could negatively impact business results. Additionally, in certain locations governments have banned or may in the future ban internal combustion engines for some types of products completely. To the extent these bans affect products manufactured and sold by John Deere, our business, results of operations, and financial condition could be negatively affected.
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FINANCIAL RISKS
Sustained increases in funding obligations under the Company’s pension plans may impair the Company’s liquidity or financial condition.
The Company maintains certain defined benefit pension plans for certain employees, which impose funding obligations. The Company uses many assumptions in calculating its future payment obligations under these plans. Significant adverse changes in credit or market conditions could result in actual rates of return on pension investments being lower than expected. The Company may be required to make significant contributions to its pension plans in the future. These factors could significantly increase the Company’s payment obligations under the plans and adversely affect its business, results of operations, and financial condition.
Changes in government banking, monetary, and fiscal policies could have a negative effect on John Deere.
Policies of the U.S. and other governments regarding banking, monetary, and fiscal policies intended to promote or maintain liquidity, stabilize financial markets, and/or address local deficit or structural economic issues may not be effective and could have a material impact on John Deere’s customers and markets. John Deere’s operations and results could also be affected by financial regulatory reform that could, among other things, have an adverse effect on the financial services segment and on John Deere’s customers by limiting their ability to enter into hedging transactions or to finance purchases of John Deere products. Government policies on spending can also affect John Deere, especially the construction and forestry segment, due to the impact of government spending on infrastructure development. John Deere’s operations, including those outside of the United States, may also be affected by non-U.S. regulatory reforms being implemented to further regulate non-U.S. financial institutions and markets.
Changes in tax rates, tax legislation, or exposure to additional tax liabilities could have a negative effect on John Deere.
John Deere is subject to income taxes in the U.S. and numerous foreign jurisdictions. John Deere’s domestic and international tax liabilities are dependent upon the location of earnings among these different jurisdictions. Tax rates in various jurisdictions may be subject to significant change. John Deere’s effective tax rates could be affected by changes in the mix of earnings in countries with differing statutory tax rates, changes in the valuation of deferred tax assets and liabilities, or changes in tax laws or their interpretations. If John Deere’s effective tax rates were to increase, or if the ultimate determination of taxes owed is for an amount more than amounts previously accrued, John Deere’s operating results, cash flows, and financial condition could be adversely affected.
The Company’s consolidated financial results are reported in U.S. dollars while certain assets and other reported items are denominated in the currencies of other countries, creating currency exchange and translation risk.
John Deere operates in many areas of the world, involving transactions denominated in a variety of currencies. John Deere is subject to currency exchange risk to the extent that its costs are denominated in currencies other than those in which John Deere earns revenues.
Additionally, the reporting currency for the Company’s consolidated financial statements is the U.S. dollar. Certain of John Deere’s assets, liabilities, expenses, and revenues are denominated in other countries’ currencies, which are then translated into U.S. dollars at the applicable exchange rates in the Company’s reported consolidated financial statements. Therefore, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates affect the value of those items as reflected in the Company’s consolidated financial statements, even if their value remains unchanged in their original currencies. While the use of currency hedging instruments may provide us with protection from adverse fluctuations in currency exchange rates, by utilizing these instruments we potentially forego any benefits that may result from favorable fluctuations in such rates.
Because John Deere’s equipment operations and financial services segment are subject to interest rate risks, changes in interest rates can reduce demand for equipment, adversely affect interest margins, and limit access to capital markets while increasing borrowing costs.
Rising interest rates could have a dampening effect on overall economic activity and/or the financial condition of John Deere’s customers, either or both of which could negatively affect customer demand for John Deere equipment and customers’ ability to repay obligations to John Deere. In response to increasing inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in March 2022 for the first time in over three years, and has signaled it expects to make additional rate increases. Rising interest rates could cause credit market dislocations, which could have an impact on funding costs, which are important to the financial services segment because such costs affect the segment’s ability to offer customers competitive financing rates. While the Company strives to match the interest rate characteristics of its financial assets and liabilities, changing interest rates could have an adverse effect on the Company’s net interest rate margin—the difference between the yield the Company earns on its assets and the interest rates the Company pays for funding, which could in turn affect the Company’s net interest income and earnings.
In addition, actions by credit rating agencies, such as downgrades or negative changes to ratings outlooks, can affect the availability and cost of funding for the Company and can increase the Company’s cost of capital and hurt its competitive position.
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Further, due to the cessation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”), the Company has entered into financial transactions such as credit agreements, receivables, derivatives, and notes that use the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) or the Sterling Overnight Index Average (“SONIA”) as interest rate benchmarks. SOFR and SONIA are calculated differently from LIBOR and have inherent differences, which could give rise to uncertainties, including the limited historical data and volatility in the benchmark rates. The full effects of the transition to SOFR, SONIA, or other rates remain uncertain.
Because the financial services segment provides financing for a significant portion of John Deere’s sales worldwide, negative economic conditions in the financial industry could materially impact John Deere’s operations and financial results.
Negative economic conditions could have an adverse effect on the financial industry in which the financial services segment operates. The financial services segment provides financing for a significant portion of John Deere’s sales worldwide. The financial services segment is exposed to the risk that customers and others will default on contractual obligations and may experience credit losses that exceed its expectations and adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations. The financial services segment’s inability to access funds at cost-effective rates to support its financing activities could have a material adverse effect on John Deere’s business. The financial services segment’s liquidity and ongoing profitability depend largely on timely access to capital to meet future cash flow requirements and to fund operations and costs associated with engaging in diversified funding activities. Additionally, negative market conditions could reduce customer confidence levels, resulting in declines in credit applications and increases in delinquencies and default rates, which could materially impact the financial services segment’s write-offs and provision for credit losses. The financial services segment may also experience residual value losses that exceed its expectations caused by lower pricing for used equipment and higher-than-expected equipment returns at lease maturity.
MANUFACTURING AND OPERATIONAL RISKS
Changes in the availability and price of certain raw materials, components, and whole goods have resulted and could continue to result in significant disruptions to the supply chain causing production disruptions, increased costs, and lower profits on sales of John Deere products.
John Deere requires access to various raw materials, components, and whole goods at competitive prices to manufacture and distribute its products. The price and availability of these materials have varied significantly in the last 24 months and are expected to continue to fluctuate due to inflation, geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and regulatory and policy instability, including import tariffs and trade agreements. The latter have the potential to significantly increase production and logistics costs and have a material negative effect on the profitability of the business, particularly if John Deere is unable to recover the increased costs due to market considerations or other factors. John Deere relies on suppliers to acquire raw materials, components, and whole goods required to manufacture its products. Significant disruptions to the supply chain resulting from shortages of raw materials, components, and whole goods has and could continue to adversely affect John Deere’s ability to meet commitments to customers. During fiscal 2022, the supply chain challenges in combination with demand for John Deere’s products resulted in a heavier back-end loaded year for industry retail orders. As the result of the COVID pandemic, geopolitical instability, and other global events, John Deere has experienced changes in the availability and prices of these raw materials, components, whole goods, and freight. Global logistics network challenges include shortages of shipping containers, ocean freight capacity constraints, international port delays, trucking and chassis shortages, and railway and airfreight capacity, which have resulted in delays, shortages of key manufacturing components, increased order backlogs, increased transportation costs, and production inefficiencies from a higher number of partially completed machines in inventory, which increased the Company’s overall production and overhead costs. Increases in such costs have had an adverse effect on John Deere’s business operations.
In an effort to mitigate raw material shortages and supply chain constraints, John Deere has increased the list price of its products and worked with suppliers to ensure optimum inventory levels. However, if customers are unwilling to accept price increases in John Deere products or John Deere is unable to offset the increase in costs, raw material shortages could have an adverse effect on John Deere’s operations. Continued or increased fluctuations in costs of materials or inflation generally and continued supply chain challenges could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s results of operations and financial condition.
Certain materials and components used in John Deere’s products are acquired from a single supplier or are proprietary in nature and cannot be alternatively sourced expeditiously. As discussed under Item 1, “Business - Construction and Forestry,” the Company agreed to voluntarily terminate its joint venture agreement with Hitachi in a transaction that closed in the first half of fiscal 2022. In connection with this termination, John Deere Construction & Forestry Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, has entered into a supply agreement with Hitachi pursuant to which Hitachi will continue to provide John Deere-branded excavators, components, and service parts. Any delay or failure by Hitachi to deliver these supplies, or failure by Hitachi to produce such supplies in a manner that meets John Deere’s quality and quantity requirements, could adversely affect John Deere’s business, results of operations, cash flow, and financial condition or its ability to meet commitments to its customers.
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Disputes with labor unions have adversely affected John Deere’s ability to operate its facilities as well as its financial results.
Many of John Deere’s production and maintenance employees are represented by labor unions under various collective bargaining agreements with different expiration dates. The failure of John Deere to successfully renegotiate labor agreements as they expire has from time to time led, and could in the future lead, to work stoppages or other disputes with labor unions. Disruptions to John Deere’s manufacturing and parts-distribution facilities, through various forms of labor disputes, adversely affect the Company. On October 14, 2021, the UAW initiated a labor strike affecting more than 10,000 workers at 14 John Deere facilities across the U.S. The strike ended after a new collective bargaining agreement was approved on November 17, 2021. The UAW strike had an adverse effect on John Deere’s results of operations in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 because of reduced production and shipments. Any strike, work stoppage, or other dispute with a labor union distracts management from operating the business, may displace employees from ordinary job positions to fill in vacant positions, may affect John Deere’s reputation, and could materially adversely affect the Company’s business, results of operations, and financial condition.
RESOURCES RISKS
John Deere’s ability to attract, develop, engage, and retain qualified employees could affect its ability to execute its strategy.
John Deere’s continued success depends, in part, on its ability to identify and attract qualified candidates with the requisite education, background, and experience as well as its ability to develop, engage, and retain qualified employees. Failure to attract, develop, engage, and retain qualified employees, whether as a result of an insufficient number of qualified applicants, difficulty in recruiting new employees, or inadequate resources to train, integrate, and retain qualified employees, could impair John Deere’s ability to execute its business strategy and could adversely affect John Deere’s business. In addition, while John Deere strives to reduce the impact of the departure of employees, John Deere’s operations or ability to execute its business strategy and meet its business objectives may be affected by the loss of employees, particularly when departures involve larger numbers of employees, such as those John Deere could experience if a surge occurs in the number of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs. Higher rates of employee separations may adversely affect John Deere through decreased employee morale, the loss of knowledge of departing employees, and the devotion of resources to recruiting and onboarding new employees.
Security breaches and other disruptions to John Deere’s information technology infrastructure could interfere with John Deere’s operations and could compromise the information of John Deere as well as its customers, suppliers, and/or dealers, exposing John Deere to liability that could cause John Deere’s business and reputation to suffer.
In the ordinary course of business, John Deere relies upon information technology networks and systems, some of which are managed by third parties, to process, transmit, and store electronic information and to manage or support a variety of business processes and activities, including supply chain, manufacturing, distribution, invoicing, and collection of payments from dealers and other purchasers of John Deere equipment and from customers of the financial services segment. John Deere uses information technology systems to record, process, and summarize financial information and results of operations for internal reporting purposes and to comply with regulatory financial reporting, legal, and tax requirements. Additionally, John Deere collects and stores sensitive data, including intellectual property, proprietary business information, and the proprietary business information of John Deere’s customers, suppliers, and dealers, as well as personally identifiable information of John Deere’s customers and employees, in data centers, which are often owned by third parties, and on information technology networks. The secure operation of these information technology networks and the processing and maintenance of this information is critical to John Deere’s business operations and strategy. Despite security measures, including a vulnerability disclosure program, and business continuity plans, John Deere’s information technology networks and infrastructure have been and may be vulnerable to intrusion, damage, disruptions, or shutdowns due to attacks by cyber criminals, employee, supplier, or dealer error or malfeasance, supply chain compromise, disruptions during the process of upgrading or replacing computer software or hardware, power outages, computer viruses, ransomware or other malware, telecommunication or utility failures, terrorist acts, natural disasters, or other events. Although John Deere has not suffered any significant cyber incidents that resulted in material business impact, we have from time to time been the target of malicious cyber threat actors. The occurrence of any significant event could compromise John Deere’s networks, and the information stored there could be accessed, obtained, publicly disclosed, lost, altered, misused, or stolen. Any such access, disclosure, alteration, misuse or other loss of information could result in legal claims or proceedings, government investigations, liability or regulatory penalties, disruption to John Deere’s operations, and damage to John Deere’s reputation, which could adversely affect John Deere’s business, results of operations, and financial condition. In addition, as security threats continue to evolve and increase in frequency and sophistication, John Deere may need to invest additional resources to protect information security.
Security breaches with respect to John Deere’s products could interfere with the business of John Deere, its dealers, and/or customers, exposing John Deere to liability that would cause its business and reputation to suffer.
Some of John Deere’s products include connectivity hardware and software typically used for remote system updates. While John Deere has implemented security measures intended to protect against unauthorized remote access to its products, third party security
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researchers and malicious threat actors, have reportedly attempted, and may attempt in the future, to gain unauthorized access to such products in order to gain control of the products, change the products’ functionality, user interface, or performance characteristics, interfere with the products’ operations, or gain access to data stored in or generated by the products or to systems to which they connect. In addition, reports of unauthorized access to John Deere’s products, systems, and data, regardless of their veracity, may result in the perception that the products, systems, or data are vulnerable to malicious or unauthorized modifications. Any unauthorized access to or control of John Deere products or systems, any loss of data, or any perception that products, systems, or data are vulnerable could result in legal claims or proceedings against John Deere, government investigations, liability or regulatory penalties, which could adversely affect John Deere’s business, results of operations, and financial condition.
The potential loss of John Deere intellectual property through trade secret theft, infringement of patents, trademark counterfeitings, or other loss of rights to exclusive use of John Deere intellectual property, could have a material adverse effect on the Company. Infringement of the intellectual property rights of others by John Deere could also have a material adverse effect on the Company.
John Deere relies on a combination of patents, trademarks, copyrights, trade secret laws, and confidentiality agreements to protect its intellectual property rights. John Deere heavily relies on certain trademarks that contribute to John Deere’s identity and the recognition of its products and services, including but not limited to the “John Deere” mark, the leaping deer logo, the “Nothing Runs Like a Deere” slogan, the prefix “JD” associated with many products, and the green and yellow color combination. These trademarks, as well as the many patents used in our products, are integral to the John Deere business, and their loss could have a material adverse effect on the Company.
Additionally, third parties may initiate litigation to challenge the validity of John Deere’s patents or allege that John Deere infringes their patents or proprietary rights. John Deere may incur substantial costs if its competitors or other third parties initiate such litigation, or if John Deere initiates any proceedings to protect its proprietary rights. If the outcome of any such litigation is unfavorable to John Deere, our business could be adversely affected.
LEGAL AND COMPLIANCE RISKS
John Deere’s global operations are subject to complex and changing laws and regulations, the violation of which could expose John Deere to potential liabilities, increased costs, and other adverse effects.
John Deere’s global operations are subject to numerous international, federal, state, and local laws and regulations, many of which are complex, frequently changing, and subject to varying interpretations. These laws and regulations cover a broad spectrum of subject areas, including advertising; anti–money laundering; antitrust; consumer finance; environmental, climate-related, health, and safety; foreign exchange controls and cash repatriation restrictions; foreign ownership and investment; import/export and trade; human rights, labor, and employment; product liability; and telematics and data privacy and connectivity. These laws may vary substantially within the different markets in which John Deere operates. Compliance with these laws and regulations is costly and may further increase the cost of conducting John Deere’s global operations. In addition, John Deere must comply with the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and all applicable foreign anti-corruption laws, including the U.K. Bribery Act, which generally prohibit companies and their intermediaries from making improper payments or providing anything of value to improperly influence government officials or private individuals for the purpose of obtaining or retaining a business advantage, regardless of whether those practices are culturally expected in a particular jurisdiction. Although John Deere has a compliance program in place designed to reduce the likelihood of potential violations of such laws and regulations, there can be no assurance that John Deere’s employees, contractors, or agents will not violate such laws and regulations or John Deere’s policies and procedures. Violations of these laws and regulations could result in criminal or civil sanctions and have a material adverse effect on John Deere’s reputation, business, results of operations, and financial condition.
Changes to existing laws and regulations or changes to how they are interpreted or the implementation of new, more stringent laws or regulations could adversely affect John Deere’s business by increasing compliance costs, limiting John Deere’s ability to offer a product or service, requiring changes to John Deere’s business practices, or otherwise making John Deere’s products and services less attractive to customers. For example, so-called “right to repair” legislation proposals in certain states and at the federal level in the U.S. could require John Deere to provide access to the software code embedded in its products, which, among other harmful consequences, could result in product safety issues, compromise engine emissions and performance controls, adversely affect the protection of John Deere’s intellectual property rights, and discourage innovation and investments in research and development. Legislative and regulatory changes and other actions that could potentially affect John Deere’s business may be announced with little or no advance notice and John Deere may not be able to effectively mitigate all adverse effects from such measures.
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John Deere is subject to governmental laws, regulations, and other legal obligations related to privacy and data protection, and any inability or perceived inability of John Deere to address these requirements could adversely affect our business.
The legislative and regulatory framework for privacy and data protection issues worldwide is rapidly evolving and is likely to remain uncertain for the foreseeable future. John Deere collects personal information and other data as integral parts of its business processes and activities. This data is subject to a variety of U.S. and foreign laws and regulations, including oversight by various regulatory and other governmental bodies. Many foreign countries and governmental bodies, including the European Union, China, Canada, and other relevant jurisdictions where John Deere conducts business, have laws and regulations concerning the collection and use of personal information and other data obtained from their residents or by businesses operating within their jurisdictions. The European Union General Data Protection Regulation, the California Consumer Privacy Act, and the China Personal Information Protection Law, among others, impose stringent data protection requirements and provide significant penalties for noncompliance. New privacy laws will continue to come into effect around the world in the future. Any inability or perceived inability to adequately address privacy and data protection concerns, even if unfounded, or comply with applicable laws, regulations, policies, industry standards, contractual obligations, or other legal obligations (including at newly acquired companies) could result in additional cost and liability to the Company or Company officials, damage our reputation, inhibit sales, and otherwise adversely affect our business.
Legal proceedings and disputes in which John Deere is, and may in the future, be involved could harm the Company’s business, financial condition, reputation, and brand.
John Deere is subject to a variety of legal proceedings and legal compliance risks around the world. John Deere faces risks of exposure to various types of claims, lawsuits, and government inquires or investigations in the ordinary course of business. The uncertainty associated with substantial unresolved claims and lawsuits may harm John Deere’s business, financial condition, reputation, and brand. The defense of lawsuits and government inquiries or investigations has resulted and may result in the expenditures of significant financial resources and the diversion of management’s time and attention away from business operations. Such legal proceedings may also affect our assessment and estimates of loss contingencies recorded as a reserve and require us to make payments exceeding our reserves. In addition to the ordinary course of business proceedings, John Deere is currently subject to a series of antitrust class action lawsuits alleging that it is unlawfully monopolizing the market for repair services for its agricultural equipment. If these lawsuits result in adverse findings for John Deere, we could be exposed to damages and may be required to implement actions impacting our business model.
GENERAL RISKS
John Deere’s reputation and brand could be damaged by negative publicity.
John Deere’s brand has worldwide recognition and significantly contributes to the success of its business. John Deere’s reputation is critical to growing its customer base. John Deere’s brand depends on the ability to maintain a positive customer perception of the business, including the core values of integrity, quality, innovation, and commitment. Negative claims or publicity involving John Deere, its products or services, its culture and values, customer data, or any of its key employees or suppliers, could damage John Deere’s reputation and brand image, regardless of whether such claims are accurate. Damage to John Deere’s reputation could adversely impact the ability to attract new and maintain existing customers, employees, dealers, and business relationships.
Additionally, negative or inaccurate postings, articles, or comments on social media and the internet about John Deere could generate negative publicity that could damage the reputation of the brand or John Deere.
Further, adverse publicity about regulatory or legal action against John Deere, or by John Deere, could also damage the reputation and brand image, undermine customer confidence, and reduce long-term demand for equipment, even if the regulatory or legal action is unfounded or not material to John Deere’s operations. If the reputation, culture or image of John Deere’s brands are damaged, or John Deere receives negative publicity, then the Company’s sales, financial condition, and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.
Unexpected events have and may in the future increase our cost of doing business or disrupt our operations.
The occurrence of one or more unexpected events, including war, acts of terrorism, epidemics and pandemics (such as the COVID pandemic), civil unrest, fires, tornadoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other forms of severe weather in the United States or in other countries in which John Deere operates, or in which John Deere suppliers are located, have and could in the future adversely affect the Company’s operations and financial performance. Such events have and could cause complete or partial closure of one or more of John Deere manufacturing facilities or distribution centers, temporary or long-term disruption in the supply of component products from some local and international suppliers, and disruption and delay in the transport of products to dealers, end-users, and distribution centers. Existing insurance coverage may not provide protection from all the costs that may arise from such events.
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The potential physical impacts of climate change on John Deere’s facilities, suppliers, and customers, and therefore on John Deere’s operations, are highly uncertain and will be particular to the circumstances developing in various geographic regions. These potential physical effects may adversely affect the demand for John Deere’s products and the cost, production, sales, and financial performance of John Deere’s operations.
ITEM 1B. UNRESOLVED STAFF COMMENTS.
None.
ITEM 2. PROPERTIES.
See “Manufacturing” in Item 1.
The equipment operations own or lease 11 facilities comprised of two locations supporting centralized parts distribution and nine regional parts depots and distribution centers throughout the U.S. and Canada. Outside the U.S. and Canada, the equipment operations also own or lease and occupy 12 centralized parts distribution centers in Brazil, Germany, India, and Russia and regional parts depots and distribution centers in Argentina, Australia, China, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. John Deere also owns or leases eight facilities for the manufacture and distribution of other brands of replacement parts.
The Company owns or leases 47 administrative offices and research facilities globally as well as many other smaller, miscellaneous facilities.
Overall, John Deere owns approximately 68.1 million square feet of facilities and leases approximately 12.8 million additional square feet in various locations. These properties are adequate and suitable for John Deere’s business as presently conducted and are well maintained.
ITEM 3. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS.
The Company is subject to various unresolved legal actions that arise in the normal course of its business, the most prevalent of which relate to product liability (including asbestos related liability), retail credit, employment, patent, trademark, and antitrust matters. The Company believes the reasonably possible range of losses for these unresolved legal actions would not have a material effect on its financial statements.
ITEM 4. MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES.
Not applicable.
PART II
(b) Not applicable.
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ISSUER PURCHASES OF EQUITY SECURITIES
Maximum
Total Number of Number of Shares
Shares Purchased that May Yet Be
Total Number of as Part of Publicly Purchased under
Shares Average Price Announced Plans the Plans or
Purchased Paid Per or Programs (1) Programs (1) (2)
Period (thousands) Share (thousands) (millions)
ITEM 6. [RESERVED]
See the information under the caption “Management’s Discussion and Analysis.”
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK.
The Company is exposed to a variety of market risks, including interest rates and currency exchange rates. The Company attempts to actively manage these risks. See the information under “Management’s Discussion and Analysis,” under “Financial Instrument Market Risk Information” and in Note 26 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
ITEM 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA.
See the Consolidated Financial Statements and notes thereto and supplementary data.
Not applicable.
ITEM 9A. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES.
Disclosure Controls and Procedures
The Company’s principal executive officer and its principal financial officer have concluded that the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act)) were effective as of October 30, 2022, based on the evaluation of these controls and procedures required by Rule 13a-15(b) or 15d-15(b) of the Exchange Act.
Management’s Report on Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
The Company’s management is responsible for establishing and maintaining adequate internal control over financial reporting. The Company’s internal control system was designed to provide reasonable assurance regarding the preparation and fair presentation of published financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.
All internal control systems, no matter how well designed, have inherent limitations. Therefore, even those systems determined to be effective can provide only reasonable assurance with respect to financial statement preparation and presentation in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.
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Management assessed the effectiveness of the Company’s internal control over financial reporting as of October 30, 2022, using the criteria set forth in Internal Control - Integrated Framework (2013) issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission. Based on that assessment, management believes that, as of October 30, 2022, the Company’s internal control over financial reporting was effective.
The Company’s independent registered public accounting firm has issued an audit report on the effectiveness of the Company’s internal control over financial reporting. That report is included herein.
Changes in Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
During the fourth quarter, there were no changes that have materially affected or are reasonably likely to materially affect the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.
ITEM 9B. OTHER INFORMATION.
Disclosure Pursuant to Section 13(r) of the Exchange Act.
Under Section 13(r) of the Exchange Act, the Company is required to disclose in its periodic reports if it or any of its affiliates knowingly conducted transactions or dealing with entities or individuals designated pursuant to certain executive orders issued by the U.S. government. On March 2, 2021, the U.S. Secretary of State designated the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) as a blocked party under Executive Order 13382. On that same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) updated General License No. 1B to authorize certain transactions and activities with the FSB related to the importation, distribution, or use of certain information technology products in the Russian Federation. In the ordinary course of business, during the six-month period ended May 1, 2022, certain of the Company’s subsidiaries requested and/or received legally required administrative notifications with the FSB in connection with the importation and/or use of certain of the Company’s products in the Russian Federation, as authorized by General License No. 1B. Neither the Company nor its subsidiaries made any payments, nor did they receive gross revenues or net profits, in connection with these activities. The Company expects that in the future certain of its subsidiaries may continue to engage with the FSB in activities necessary to conduct business in the Russian Federation in accordance with applicable U.S. laws and regulations so long as it remains lawful to do so. However, no such activities have been conducted after May 1, 2022.
ITEM 9C. DISCLOSURE REGARDING FOREIGN JURISDICTIONS THAT PREVENT INSPECTIONS.
Not applicable.
PART III
ITEM 10. DIRECTORS, EXECUTIVE OFFICERS AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE.
The information regarding directors required by this Item 10 will be set forth in the definitive proxy statement for the Company’s 2023 annual meeting of stockholders (proxy statement) to be filed with the Commission in advance of such meeting. Information regarding executive officers is presented in Item 1 of this report under the caption "Information about our Executive Officers."
The Company has adopted a code of ethics that applies to its executives, including its principal executive officer, principal financial officer, and principal accounting officer. This code of ethics and the Company's corporate governance policies are posted on the Company's website at http://www.deere.com/governance. The Company intends to satisfy disclosure requirements regarding amendments to or waivers from its code of ethics by posting such information on this website. The charters of the Audit Review, Corporate Governance, Compensation, and Finance committees of the Company's Board of Directors are available on the Company's website as well. This information is also available in print free of charge to any person who requests it.
ITEM 11. EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION.
The information required by this Item 11 will be set forth in the proxy statement to be filed with the Commission.
The information required by this Item 12 will be set forth in the proxy statement to be filed with the Commission.
The information required by this Item 13 will be set forth in the proxy statement to be filed with the Commission.
ITEM 14. PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTANT FEES AND SERVICES.
Information required by this Item 14, including aggregate fees billed to us by the Company’s principal accountant, Deloitte & Touche LLP (PCAOB ID No. 34), will be set forth in the proxy statement to be filed with the Commission.
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PART IV
ITEM 15. EXHIBITS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENT SCHEDULES.
Page
(1) Financial Statements
Consolidated Balance Sheets as of October 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021 45
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 48
(2) Exhibits
See the “Index to Exhibits” on pages 86 – 89 of this report
Financial Statement Schedules Omitted
ITEM 16.FORM 10-K SUMMARY.
None.
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MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
The following Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) is intended to promote understanding of the financial condition and results of operations. The MD&A is provided as a supplement to, and should be read in conjunction with, the consolidated financial statements and the accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Part II, Item 8 of this Form 10-K).
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS FOR THE YEARS ENDED
OCTOBER 30, 2022, OCTOBER 31, 2021, AND NOVEMBER 1, 2020
OVERVIEW
Organization
The company generates net sales from the sale of equipment to John Deere dealers and distributors. The company manufactures and distributes a full line of agricultural equipment; a variety of commercial and consumer equipment; and a broad range of equipment for construction, roadbuilding, and forestry. These operations (collectively known as the “equipment operations”) are managed through the production and precision agriculture, small agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry operating segments. The company’s financial services segment provides credit services, which finance sales and leases of equipment by John Deere dealers. In addition, the financial services segment provides wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment, finances retail revolving charge accounts, and offers extended equipment warranties.
Smart Industrial Operating Model and Leap Ambitions
The company’s Smart Industrial operating model is focused on making significant investments, strengthening the company’s capabilities in digital, automation, autonomy, and alternative propulsion technologies. These technologies are intended to increase worksite efficiency, improve yields, lower input costs, and ease labor constraints. The company’s Leap Ambitions are goals designed to boost economic value and sustainability for the company’s customers. The company anticipates opportunities in this area, as the company and its customers have a vested interest in sustainable practices.
Trends and Economic Conditions
Industry Trends for Fiscal Year 2023 – Industry sales of large agricultural machinery in the U.S. and Canada for 2023 are forecasted to increase 5 to 10 percent compared to 2022. Industry sales of small agricultural and turf equipment in the U.S. and Canada are expected to be flat to down 5 percent in 2023. Industry sales of agricultural machinery in Europe are forecasted to be flat to up 5 percent, while South American industry sales of tractors and combines are expected to be flat to up 5 percent in 2023. Asia industry sales are forecasted to be down moderately in 2023 as the demand in India, the world’s largest tractor market by unit, stabilizes. On an industry basis, North American construction equipment and compact construction equipment sales are both expected to be flat to up 5 percent in 2023. Global forestry and global roadbuilding industry sales are each expected to be flat.
Company Trends – Customers’ demand for integration of technology into equipment is a market trend underlying the company’s Smart Industrial operating model and Leap Ambitions framework. Customers have sought to improve profitability, productivity, and sustainability through technology. The company’s approach to technology involves hardware and software, guidance, connectivity and digital solutions, automation and machine intelligence, autonomy, and electrification. This technology is incorporated into products within each of the company’s operating segments.
Customers continue to adopt technology integrated in the John Deere portfolio of “smart” machines, systems, and solutions. The company expects this trend to persist for the foreseeable future.
Demand for the company’s equipment remains strong, as order books are full through a majority of 2023. Agricultural fundamentals are expected to remain solid into 2023, and retail demand will comprise most of 2023 sales. The company expects dealer stock inventory replenishment to occur in 2024. The North American retail customer fleet age remains above average, and dealer inventories are historically low due to the manufacturing and supply chain constraints over the past few years. Crop prices remain favorable to our customers in part due to low stock-to-use ratios for key grains and lower exports from the Black Sea region. The company expects to sell more large agricultural equipment in 2023 than 2022 in North America, Europe, and South America. Demand for small agricultural equipment remains stable, while turf and utility equipment product sales are expected to be lower due to the overall U.S. economic conditions. Construction equipment markets are forecasted to be steady. Rental fleets replenishment, the energy industry, and U.S. infrastructure spend will offset moderation in residential home construction. Roadbuilding demand remains strongest in the U.S., largely offset by softening demand in Europe and sluggish demand in Asia. Net income for the company’s financial services operations is expected to be slightly higher than fiscal year 2022 due to a higher average portfolio, partially offset by less-favorable financing spreads and lower gains on operating leases. Excluding the portfolio in Russia, a higher provision for credit losses is forecasted for 2023.
Additional Trends – The company experienced supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures in 2022. While these are two distinct issues and discussed separately below, their impact may be intertwined.
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Supply chain disruptions impacted many aspects of the business, including parts availability, increased production costs, and more partially completed machines in inventory. Past due deliveries from suppliers were at elevated levels. Late part deliveries incurred expedited freight charges and rework of partially built machines, contributing to production inefficiencies and higher overhead costs. The company implemented the following mitigation efforts to minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions on its ability to meet customer demand:
• Multi-sourced some parts and materials.
• Provided resources to suppliers to address constraints.
• Entered into long-term contracts for some critical components.
• Utilized alternative freight carriers to expedite delivery.
While supply chain disruptions are expected to persist into 2023, the company is working diligently to secure the parts and components that customers need to deliver essential food and infrastructure more profitably and sustainably.
Inflation was a pervasive feature throughout 2022, increasing the cost of material, freight, energy, salaries, and wages. Higher costs due to general business inflation were offset by price realization, which mitigated the impact of inflation on the company’s operating results. The company expects inflation to continue in 2023 resulting in higher costs. If customers are unwilling to accept increases in cost of John Deere products, or the company is otherwise unable to offset increases in production costs, inflation could have an adverse effect on the company’s operations and financial condition.
Interest rates rose in 2022 and further central bank policy rate increases are projected in 2023. Most retail customer receivables are fixed rate, while wholesale financing receivables are floating rate. The company has both fixed and floating rate borrowings. The company manages the risk of interest rate fluctuations through balancing the types and amounts of its funding sources to its financing receivable and equipment on operating lease portfolios. Accordingly, the company enters into interest rate swap agreements to manage its interest rate exposure. Rising interest rates have historically impacted the company’s borrowings sooner than the benefit is realized from the financing receivable and equipment on operating lease portfolios. As a result, the company’s financial services operations experienced spread compression in 2022. If interest rates continue to rise, the company expects to continue experiencing spread compression in 2023.
Supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures, and rising interest rates are driven by factors outside of the company’s control, and as a result, the company cannot reasonably foresee when these conditions will subside.
Items of Concern and Uncertainties– Other items of concern include global and regional political conditions, economic and trade policies, imposition of new or retaliatory tariffs against
certain countries or covering certain products, the ongoing effects of the pandemic, capital market disruptions, changes in demand and pricing for new and used equipment, significant fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, volatility in the prices of many commodities, and potential recession. These items could impact the company’s results. The company is making investments in technology and in strengthening its capabilities in digital, automation, autonomy, and electrification. As with most technology investments, marketplace adoption and monetization of these features holds an elevated level of uncertainty.
2022 COMPARED WITH 2021
CONSOLIDATED RESULTS
Deere & Company
(In millions of dollars, except per share amounts) 2022 2021
Net income attributable to Deere & Company 7,131 5,963
Diluted earnings per share 23.28 18.99
Net income in 2022 and 2021 was impacted by special items. See Notes 3 and 4 for additional details. The discussion on net sales and operating profit is included in the Business Segment Results below.
An explanation of the cost of sales to net sales ratio and other significant statement of consolidated income changes follows:
Deere & Company
(In millions of dollars) 2022 2021 % Change
Cost of sales to net sales 73.7% 73.3%
Research and development expenses 1,912 1,587 +20
Selling, administrative and general expenses 3,863 3,383 +14
Interest expense 1,062 993 +7
Other operating expenses 1,275 1,343 -5
Provision for income taxes 2,007 1,658 +21
The cost of sales to net sales ratio increased compared to 2021 mainly due to higher production costs partially offset by price realization. Other income increased due to a non-cash gain on the remeasurement of the previously held equity investment in the Deere-Hitachi joint venture. Research and development expenses were higher in 2022 largely due to continued focus on developing and incorporating technology solutions. Selling, administrative and general expenses increased mostly due tohigher provision for credit losses, including higher reserves due to the economic uncertainty in Russia (see Note 4), as well as a higher merit pay increase due to inflationary conditions. Interest expense increased in 2022 due to higher average borrowings and higher average borrowing rates. Other operating expenses were lower compared to 2021 largely due to reduced depreciation of equipment on operating leases and lower retirement benefit costs. The provision for income taxes increased consistent with higher pretax income.
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BUSINESS SEGMENT RESULTS
The following discussion relates to operating results by reportable segment. Operating profit is income before corporate expenses, certain external interest expense, certain foreign exchange gains or losses, and income taxes.
For the equipment operations, higher production costs were mostly due to elevated material and inbound freight expenses. Overhead spend was also higher for the year as factories continued to experience some production inefficiencies due to supply chain challenges and clearing partially completed machines in inventory.
Production and Precision Agriculture Operations
(In millions of dollars) 2022 2021 % Change
Operating margin 19.9% 20.2%
Price realization +14
Currency translation -2
Segment sales increased due to higher shipment volumes and price realization. Operating profit benefitted from price realization and higher shipment volumes / sales mix. These items were partially offset by higher production costs, higher research and development expenses and selling, administrative and general expenses, the impact of higher reserves and impairments related to events in Russia / Ukraine, and the UAW contract ratification bonus. The prior year was also impacted by a favorable indirect tax ruling in Brazil (see Note 4).
Small Agriculture and Turf Operations
(In millions of dollars) 2022 2021 % Change
Operating margin 14.6% 17.2%
Price realization +9
Currency translation -4
Segment sales were higher in 2022 due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by the negative effects of currency translation. Operating profit decreased as a result of higher production costs, higher selling, administrative and general expenses and research and development expenses, and the unfavorable effects of foreign exchange, partially offset by price realization and improved shipment volumes. Results for the current year were affected by the impact of higher reserves and impairments related to events in Russia / Ukraine and the UAW contract ratification bonus, while results of the prior year were positively impacted by a gain on the sale of a factory in China (see Note 4).
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Construction and Forestry Operations
(In millions of dollars) 2022 2021 % Change
Operating margin 16.1% 13.1%
Price realization +10
Currency translation -3
Segment sales increased in 2022 due to price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by the negative effects of currency translation. Operating profit increased mainly due to price realization, partially offset by higher production costs. The current year results included a non-cash gain on the remeasurement of the previously held equity investment in the Deere-Hitachi joint venture, partially offset by the impact of higher reserves and impairments related to events in Russia / Ukraine (see Note 4).
Financial Services Operations
(In millions of dollars) 2022 2021 % Change
Revenue (including intercompany) $ 4,085 $ 3,794 +8
Net income 880 881
The average balance of receivables and leases financed was 8 percent higher in 2022, consistent with revenue growth. Interest expense increased in 2022 as a result of higher average borrowings and higher average borrowing rates. Net income in 2022 was roughly the same mainly due to income earned on a higher average portfolio, partially offset by less favorable financing spreads and unfavorable discrete income tax adjustments. The provision for credit losses increased, primarily due to economic uncertainty in Russia. The financial services operations received an intercompany benefit from the equipment operations, as the equipment
operations guarantees financial services’ investments in certain international markets, including Russia (see Note 4).
2021 COMPARED WITH 2020
The comparison of the 2021 results with 2020 can be found under the heading “2021 Compared With 2020” in the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis” section of the company’s 2021 Form 10-K.
CAPITAL RESOURCES AND LIQUIDITY
SOURCES OF LIQUIDITY, KEY METRICS, AND BALANCE SHEET DATA
The company has access to most global markets at a reasonable cost. Sources of liquidity for the company include cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, funds from operations, the issuance of commercial paper and term debt, the securitization of retail notes (both public and private markets), and bank lines of credit. The company closely monitors its liquidity sources against the cash requirements and expects to have sufficient sources of global funding and liquidity to meet its funding needs in the short term (next 12 months) and long term (beyond 12 months). The company operates in multiple industries, which have different funding requirements. The production and precision agriculture, small agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry segments are capital intensive and are typically subject to seasonal variations in financing requirements for inventories and certain receivables from dealers. However, the patterns of seasonality in inventory have been affected by increases in production rates and supply chain disruptions experienced during fiscal year 2022, which continue to impact inventory levels. As a result, the company may not experience typical seasonal reduction in inventory during 2023. The financial services operations rely on their ability to raise substantial amounts of funds to finance their receivable and lease portfolios.
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Key metrics are provided in the following table, in millions of dollars:
Trade accounts and notes receivable – net 6,410 4,208 4,171
Ratio to prior 12 month’s net sales 13% 11% 13%
Ratio to prior 12 month’s cost of sales 24% 23% 21%
Financial Services:
Due to the uncertainties around the COVID-19 pandemic, the company temporarily increased its cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities balance beginning in March 2020. The cash balance decrease in 2022 was driven by working capital requirements. The reduction in unused credit lines in 2022 compared to both prior periods relates to an increase in commercial paper outstanding to fund growth in the receivable portfolio. The company forecasts higher operating cash flows in 2023 as identified previously in Trends and Economic Conditions.
Cash Flows
Net cash provided by operating activities $ 4,699 $ 7,726 $ 7,483
Net cash used for investing activities (8,485) (5,750) (3,319)
Positive cash flows from consolidated operating activities in 2022 were $4,699 million. This resulted from net income adjusted for non-cash provisions, partially offset by an increase in receivables related to sales, an increase in inventories, and a $1,000 million voluntary contribution to a U.S. other postretirement benefit (OPEB) plan. Cash outflows from investing activities were $8,485 million in 2022. The primary drivers were growth in the retail customer receivable and lease portfolios; purchases of property and equipment; a change in collateral on derivatives – net; and acquisitions of businesses, net of cash acquired. Cash inflows from financing activities were $826 million in 2022, due to an increase in borrowings, partially offset by repurchases of common stock and dividends paid. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash decreased $3,184 million during 2022.
Cash and Marketable Securities Held by Foreign Subsidiaries– The amount of the total cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities held by foreign subsidiaries was $3,379 million at
October 30, 2022 and $5,817 million at October 31, 2021. During 2022, the company’s foreign subsidiaries returned $5,643 million of cash and cash equivalents to the U.S. Distributions of profits from foreign subsidiaries are not expected to cause a significant incremental U.S. tax impact. However, these distributions may be subject to withholding taxes outside the U.S.
Trade Accounts and Notes Receivable– Trade accounts and notes receivable arise from sales of goods to customers. Trade receivables increased by $2,202 million in 2022. The collection period for trade receivables averages less than 12 months. The percentage of trade receivables outstanding for a period exceeding 12 months was 1 percent at each of October 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021.
Financing Receivables and Equipment on Operating Leases– Financing receivables and leases consist of retail notes originated in connection with financing of new and used equipment, operating leases, revolving charge accounts, sales-type and direct financing leases, and wholesale notes. Financing receivables and equipment on operating leases increased by $3,747 million in 2022, compared with 2021. Total acquisition volumes of financing receivables and equipment on operating leases were 7 percent higher in 2022 compared with the same period last year, as volumes of revolving charge accounts, operating leases, wholesale notes, and retail notes increased primarily due to higher sales by the company, while volumes of finance leases decreased.
Inventories– Inventories increased by $1,714 million in 2022 due to higher production schedules and supply chain disruptions. A majority of these inventories are valued on the last-in, first-out (LIFO) method. The ratios of inventories on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) basis (see Note 13), which approximates current cost, to fiscal year cost of sales were 31 percent at each of October 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021.
Property and Equipment– Property and equipment cash expenditures in 2022 were $1,134 million, compared with $848 million in 2021.
Borrowings– Total external borrowings increased by $3,487 million in 2022, corresponding with the level of the receivable and the lease portfolio, as well as the level of cash and cash equivalents.
John Deere Capital Corporation (Capital Corporation), a U.S. financial services subsidiary, has a revolving warehouse facility to utilize bank conduit facilities to securitize retail notes (see Note 12). At October 30, 2022, $948 million of short-term securitization borrowings were outstanding under the facility. At the end of the contractual revolving period, unless the banks and Capital Corporation agree to renew, Capital Corporation would liquidate the secured borrowings over time as payments on the retail notes are collected. The agreement was renewed in November 2022 with an expiration in November 2023 and a capacity of $1,500 million.
During 2022, the company issued $4,085 million and retired $2,965 million of retail note securitization borrowings, which are presented in “Increase (decrease) in total short-term borrowings” on the statements of consolidated cash flows.
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Lines of Credit– The company also has access to bank lines of credit with various banks throughout the world. Worldwide lines of credit totaled $8,402 million at October 30, 2022, $3,284 million of which were unused. For the purpose of computing the unused credit lines, commercial paper and short-term bank borrowings, excluding secured borrowings and the current portion of long-term borrowings, were considered to constitute utilization. See Note 17 for more information.
Debt Ratings–To access public debt capital markets, the company relies on credit rating agencies to assign short-term and long-term credit ratings to the company’s securities as an indicator of credit quality for fixed income investors. A security rating is not a recommendation by the rating agency to buy, sell, or hold company securities. A credit rating agency may change or withdraw company ratings based on its assessment of the company’s current and future ability to meet interest and principal repayment obligations. Each agency’s rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating. Lower credit ratings generally result in higher borrowing costs, including costs of derivative transactions, and reduced access to debt capital markets.
The senior long-term and short-term debt ratings and outlook currently assigned to unsecured company securities by the rating agencies engaged by the company are as follows:
Senior
Long-Term Short-Term Outlook
Fitch Ratings A F1 Stable
Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. A2 Prime-1 Positive
Standard & Poor’s A A-1 Stable
CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS AND CASH REQUIREMENTS
The company’s material cash requirements include the following:
Borrowings – As of October 30, 2022, the company had $15,274 million of payments due on borrowings and securitization borrowings in the next year, along with interest payments of $1,460 million. The securitization borrowing payments are based on the expected liquidation of the retail notes. See Notes 12 and 19 for additional borrowing details. These payments will likely be replaced with new borrowings to finance the receivable and lease portfolio, which is expected to grow in 2023.
Purchase Obligations – As of October 30, 2022, the company’s outstanding purchase obligations were $4,701 million, with $4,121 million payable within one year. These purchase obligations are noncancelable.
Other Cash Requirements –In addition to its contractual obligations, the company’s quarterly cash dividend is $1.20 per share, subject to change at the discretion of the company’s Board of Directors. Total company pension and OPEB contributions in 2023 are expected to be approximately $200 million. The company also plans capital expenditures of $1,400 million in 2023. The company will consider share repurchases as a means of deploying excess cash to shareholders once the previously mentioned requirements are met.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The preparation of the company’s consolidated financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses. Changes in these estimates and assumptions could have a significant effect on the financial statements. The accounting policies below are those management believes are the most critical to the preparation of the company’s financial statements and require the most difficult, subjective, or complex judgments. The company’s other accounting policies are described in the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Sales Incentives
The company provides sales incentives to dealers. At the time a sale to a dealer is recognized, the company records an estimate of the future sales incentive costs as a reduction to the sales price. These incentives may be based on a dealer’s purchase volume, or on retail sales incentive programs for allowances and financing programs that will be due when the dealer sells the equipment to a retail customer. The estimated cost of these programs is based on historical data, announced and expected incentive programs, field inventory levels, and forecasted sales volumes. The final cost of these programs is determined at the end of the measurement period for volume-based incentives or when the dealer sells the equipment to the retail customer. This is due to numerous programs available at any particular time and new programs that may be announced after the company records the equipment sale. Changes in the mix and types of programs affect these estimates, which are reviewed quarterly. Actual cost differences from the original cost estimate are recognized in “Net sales.”
The sales incentive accruals at October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020 were $2,364 million, $1,680 million, and $1,718 million, respectively. The total accruals recorded were $1,320 million, $880 million, and $1,109 million in trade accounts and notes receivable – net, and $1,044 million, $800 million, and $609 million in accounts payable and accrued expenses at October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020, respectively. The accruals recorded against receivables relate to programs where the company has the contractual right and the intent to offset against existing receivables. The increase in each of 2022and 2021 primarily resulted from higher retail demand. Additional factors in 2022 were higher incentives expected to be paid for dealer market share and incentives provided to offset elevated interest rates.
The estimation of the retail sales incentive accrual is impacted by many assumptions. One of the key assumptions is the predictive value of the historical percent of retail sales incentive costs to retail sales from dealers. Over the last five fiscal years, this percent has varied by an average of approximately plus or minus .8 percent, compared to the average retail sales incentive costs to retail sales percent during that period. Holding other assumptions constant, if this estimated retail incentive cost experience percent would have increased or decreased .8 percent, the sales incentive accrual at October 30, 2022 would have increased or decreased by approximately $74 million.
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Product Warranties
For most equipment and service parts sales, the company provides a standard warranty to provide assurance that the equipment will function as intended for a specified period of time. At the time a sale is recognized, the company records the estimated future warranty costs. The company determines its total warranty liability by applying historical claims rate experience to the estimated amount of equipment that has been sold and is still under warranty based on dealer inventories and retail sales. The historical claims rate is determined by a review of five-year claims costs and consideration of current quality developments. Variances in claims experience and the type of warranty programs affect these estimates, which are reviewed quarterly. The company also offers extended warranty arrangements for purchase at the customer’s option. The premiums for extended warranties are recognized in “Other income” in the statements of consolidated income in proportion to the costs expected to be incurred over the contract period. The unamortized extended warranty premiums (deferred revenue) are recorded in “Accounts payable and accrued expenses” in the consolidated balance sheets (see Note 18).
The product warranty accruals, excluding extended warranty unamortized premiums, at October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020 were $1,427 million, $1,312 million, and $1,105 million, respectively. The increase in each of 2022 and 2021 related to higher sales volume, partially offset by a decrease in the warranty rate.
Estimates used to determine the product warranty accruals are significantly affected by the historical percent of warranty claims costs to sales. Over the last five fiscal years, this percent has varied by an average of approximately plus or minus .11 percent, compared to the average warranty costs to sales percent during that period. Holding other assumptions constant, if this estimated cost experience percent would have increased or decreased .11 percent, the warranty accrual at October 30, 2022 would have increased or decreased by approximately $57 million.
Postretirement Benefit Obligations
The estimation of defined benefit pension and OPEB plan obligations and expenses requires the use of estimates of the present value of the projected future benefit payments. Plan obligations and expenses are based on existing retirement plan provisions. No assumption is made regarding any potential changes to benefit provisions beyond those to which the company is presently committed (e.g., in existing labor contracts). The key assumptions used in developing the required estimates used by the company’s actuaries include discount rates, health care cost trend rates, expected long-term return on plan assets, compensation increases, retirement rates, mortality rates, and expected contributions. Actual results that differ from the assumptions and changes in assumptions affect future expenses and obligations. Assumptions are set at each year-end and are not changed during the year unless there is a significant plan event, such as a curtailment or settlement that would trigger a plan remeasurement.
The company’s pension and OPEB costs in 2022 were $176 million, compared with $197 million in 2021 and $341 million in 2020. The long-term expected return on plan assets, which is reflected in these costs, was an expected gain of 5.0 percent in 2022 and 5.9 percent in 2021, or $836 million and $876 million, respectively. The actual return was a loss of $3,565 million in 2022 and a gain of $3,616 million in 2021. In 2023, the expected return is approximately 6.0 percent. The company’s costs under these plans in 2023 are expected to decrease by $225 million compared to 2022, resulting in a net periodic benefit. The reduction in the company’s cost is due to increases in the expected long-term rates of return on plan assets and increases in discount rates.
The pension assets, net of pension liabilities, recognized on the balance sheets at October 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021 were $2,690 million and $2,665 million, respectively. The pension liabilities, net of pension assets, recognized on the balance sheets at November 1, 2020 were $447 million. The increase in the pension net assets in 2022 was due to an increase in discount rates offset by losses on plan assets and UAW contract impacts. The increase in the pension net assets in 2021 was due to returns on plan assets.
The OPEB liabilities, net of OPEB assets, at October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020 were $1,205 million, $3,175 million, and $3,892 million, respectively. The decrease in OPEB net liabilities in 2022 was due to an increase in discount rates and a $1,000 million contribution to a U.S. OPEB plan. The decrease in OPEB net liabilities in 2021 was due to returns on plan assets and favorable changes to medical assumptions.
The company employs de-risking strategies for the global funded pension plans that increase the matching characteristics of the plan assets relative to the obligations, through an increased allocation to fixed income assets, as the funded status improves. Changes in interest rates, which directly influence changes in discount rates, in addition to other factors, have a significant impact on the value of the pension obligation and the fixed income asset portfolio. The company anticipates that changes in interest rates will likely result in offsetting effects in the value of the pension obligation and the value of the fixed income asset portfolio, reducing funded status volatility.
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The effect of hypothetical changes to selected assumptions on the company’s major U.S. retirement benefit plans would be as follows in millions of dollars:
Increase Increase
Percentage (Decrease) (Decrease)
Assumptions Change PBO/APBO* Expense
Pension
Expected return on assets +/-.5 (63)/63
OPEB
Expected return on assets +/-.5 (10)/10
Goodwill
Goodwill is not amortized and is tested for impairment annually and when events or circumstances change such that it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is reduced below its carrying amount. The end of the fiscal third quarter is the annual measurement date. To test for goodwill impairment, the carrying value of each reporting unit is compared with its fair value. If the carrying value of the goodwill is considered impaired, a loss is measured as the excess of the reporting unit’s carrying value over the fair value, with a limit of the goodwill allocated to that reporting unit.
An estimate of the fair value of the reporting unit is determined through a combination of comparable market values for similar businesses and discounted cash flows. These estimates can change significantly based on such factors as the reporting unit’s financial performance, economic conditions, interest rates, growth rates, pricing, changes in business strategies, and competition.
The company has not identified a reporting unit for which the goodwill was impaired in 2022, 2021, or 2020. For all reporting units, a 10 percent decrease in the estimated fair value would have had no effect on the carrying value of goodwill at the annual measurement date in 2022.
Allowance for Credit Losses
The allowance for credit losses is an estimate of the credit losses expected over the life of the receivable portfolio. The allowance is measured on a collective basis when similar risk characteristics exist. Risk characteristics considered by the company include finance product category, market, geography, credit risk, and remaining duration. Receivables that do not share risk characteristics with other receivables in the portfolio are evaluated on an individual basis. Non-performing receivables are included in the estimate of expected credit losses.
The company utilizes loss forecast models, which are selected based on the size and credit risk of the underlying pool of receivables, to estimate expected credit losses. Transition matrix
models are used for large and complex retail customer receivable pools, while weighted average remaining maturity models are used for smaller and less complex retail customer receivable pools. Expected credit losses on wholesale receivables are based on historical loss rates, with consideration of current economic conditions and dealer financial risk. The modeled expected credit losses are adjusted based on reasonable and supportable forecasts, which may include economic indicators such as commodity prices, industry equipment sales, unemployment rates, and housing starts. Management reviews each model’s output quarterly, and qualitative adjustments are incorporated as necessary.
In 2021, the company adopted ASU No. 2016-13, which revised the measurement of credit losses from an incurred loss to an expected loss methodology. Upon adoption the company’s allowance for credit losses increased with an offset to retained earnings. The allowance for credit losses at November 1, 2020 was not restated under the expected loss methodology. The total allowance for credit losses at October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020 was $361 million, $207 million, and $223 million, respectively. The allowance increased in 2022 compared to 2021 due to higher reserves related to the economic uncertainty in Russia. The allowance decreased in 2021 compared to 2020 due to lower expected losses in the construction and forestry market, continued improvement in the agriculture and turf market, and better than expected performance of accounts granted payment relief due to the economic effects of COVID. As previously mentioned, the allowance decrease was partially offset by the adoption of ASU No. 2016-13.
The assumptions used in evaluating the company’s exposure to credit losses involve estimates and significant judgment. While the company believes its allowance is sufficient to provide for losses over the life of its existing receivable portfolio, different assumptions or changes in economic conditions would result in changes to the allowance for credit losses. Historically, changes in economic conditions have had limited impact on credit losses within the company’s wholesale receivable portfolio. Within the retail customer receivables portfolio, credit loss estimates are dependent on a number of factors, including historical portfolio performance, current delinquency levels, and estimated recoveries on defaulted accounts. The company’s transition matrix models, which are utilized to estimate credit losses for more than 90 percent of retail customer receivables, use historical portfolio performance and current delinquency levels to forecast future defaults. Estimated recovery rates are applied to the estimated default balance to calculate the expected credit losses. Holding all other factors constant, a 10 percent increase in the transition matrix models’ forecasted defaults and a simultaneous 10 percent decrease in recovery rates would have resulted in a $40 million increase to the allowance for credit losses at October 30, 2022.
Operating Lease Residual Values
The carrying value of equipment on operating leases is affected by the estimated fair values of the equipment at the end of the lease (residual values). Upon termination of the lease, the equipment is
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either purchased by the lessee or sold to a third party, in which case the company may record a gain or a loss for the difference between the estimated residual value and the sale price. The estimated residual values are based on several factors, including lease term, expected hours of usage, historical wholesale sales prices, return experience, intended equipment use, market dynamics and trends, and dealer residual value guarantees. The company reviews residual value estimates during the lease term and tests the carrying value of its operating leases for impairment when events or circumstances necessitate. Changes in residual value assumptions would affect the amount of depreciation expense and the amount of investment in equipment on operating leases. Depreciation is adjusted prospectively on a straight-line basis over the remaining lease term if residual estimates are revised.
The total operating lease residual values atOctober 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020 were $4,640 million, $5,025 million, and $5,254 million, respectively. The decreases in 2022 and 2021 related to a lower average operating lease portfolio.
Estimates used in determining end of lease market values for equipment on operating leases significantly impact the amount and timing of depreciation expense. Hypothetically, if future market values for this equipment were to decrease 10 percent from the company’s present estimates and all the equipment on operating leases were returned to the company for remarketing at the end of the lease term, the total effect would be to increase the company’s annual depreciation for equipment on operating leases by approximately $40 million, after consideration of dealer residual value guarantees.
Income Taxes
The company’s income tax provision, deferred income tax assets and liabilities, and liabilities for uncertain tax benefits represent the company’s best estimate of current and future income taxes to be paid. The annual tax rate is based on income tax laws, statutory tax rates, taxable income levels, and tax planning opportunities available in various jurisdictions where the company operates. These tax laws are complex, and require significant judgment to determine the consolidated provision for income taxes. Changes in tax laws, regulations, statutory tax rates, and estimates of the company’s future taxable income levels could result in actual realization of deferred taxes being materially different from amounts provided for in the consolidated financial statements.
Deferred income taxes represent temporary differences between the tax and the financial reporting basis of assets and liabilities, which will result in taxable or deductible amounts in the future. Deferred tax assets also include loss carryforwards and tax credits. These assets are regularly assessed for the likelihood of recoverability from estimated future taxable income, reversal of deferred tax liabilities, and tax planning strategies. To the extent the company determines that it is more likely than not a deferred income tax asset will not be realized, a valuation allowance is established. The recoverability analysis of the deferred income tax assets and the related valuation allowances requires significant judgment and relies on estimates.
Uncertain tax positions are determined based on whether it is more likely than not the tax positions will be sustained based on the technical merits of the position. For those positions that meet the more likely than not criteria, an estimate of the largest amount of tax benefit that is greater than 50 percent likely to be realized upon ultimate settlement with the related tax authority is recognized. The ultimate resolution of the tax position could take many years and result in a payment that is significantly different from the original estimate.
A provision for foreign withholding taxes has not been recorded on undistributed profits of the company’s non-U.S. subsidiaries that are determined to be indefinitely reinvested outside the U.S. If management intentions change in the future, there may be a significant impact on the provision for income taxes in the period the change occurs. For further information on income taxes, see Note 8 to the consolidated financial statements.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements contained herein, including in the section entitled “Overview” relating to future events, expectations, and trends constitute “forward-looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and involve factors that are subject to change, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of these risks and uncertainties could affect all lines of the company’s operations generally while others could more heavily affect a particular line of business.
Forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and current assumptions, expectations, and projections about future events and should not be relied upon. Further information concerning the company and its businesses, including factors that could materially affect the company’s financial results, is included in the company’s other filings with the SEC (including, but not limited to, the factors discussed in Item 1A. “Risk Factors” of this Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q).
Factors Affecting All Lines of Business
All of the company’s businesses and their results are affected by general global macroeconomic conditions, including but not limited to inflation, including rising costs for materials used in our production, slower growth or recession, higher interest rates and currency fluctuations which could adversely affect the U.S. dollar and customer confidence, customer access to capital, and overall demand for our products; delays or disruptions in the company’s supply chain, including work stoppages or disputes by suppliers with their unionized labor; shipping delays; government spending and taxing; changes in weather and climate patterns; the political and social stability of the markets in which the company operates; the effects of, or response to, wars and other conflicts, including the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine; natural disasters; and the spread of major epidemics or pandemics (including the COVID-19 pandemic).
Significant changes in market liquidity conditions, changes in the company’s credit ratings, and any failure to comply with financial
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covenants in credit agreements could impact our access to or terms of future funding, which could reduce the company’s earnings and cash flows. A debt crisis in Europe (including the recent volatility of the United Kingdom’s bond market), Latin America, or elsewhere could negatively impact currencies, global financial markets, funding sources and costs, asset and obligation values, customers, suppliers, and demand for equipment. The company’s investment management activities could be impaired by changes in the equity, bond, and other financial markets, which would negatively affect earnings.
Additional factors that could materially affect the company’s operations, financial condition, and results include changes in governmental trade, banking, monetary, and fiscal policies, including policies and tariffs for the benefit of certain industries or sectors; actions by environmental, health, and safety regulatory agencies, including those related to engine emissions, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions, and the effects of climate change; changes to GPS radio frequency bands and their permitted uses; speed of research and development; effectiveness of partnerships with third parties; the dealer channel’s ability to support and service precision technology solutions; changes to accounting standards; changes to and compliance with economic sanctions and export controls laws and regulations (including those in place for Russia); and compliance with evolving U.S. and foreign laws when expanding to new markets and otherwise.
Other factors that could materially affect the company’s results and operations include security breaches, cybersecurity attacks, technology failures, and other disruptions to the information technology infrastructure of the company and its suppliers and dealers; security breaches with respect to the company’s products; the loss of or challenges to intellectual property rights; the availability and prices of strategically sourced materials, components, and whole goods; introduction of legislation that could affect the company’s business model and intellectual property, such as so-called right to repair or right to modify legislation; events that damage the company’s reputation or brand; significant investigations, claims, lawsuits, or other legal proceedings; the success or failure of new product initiatives or business strategies; changes in product preferences, sales mix, and take rates of products and life cycle solutions; gaps or limitations in rural broadband coverage, capacity, and speed needed to support technology solutions; oil and energy prices, supplies, and volatility; the availability and cost of freight; actions of competitors in the various industries in which the company competes, particularly price discounting; dealer practices, especially as to levels of new and used field inventories; changes in demand and pricing for used equipment and resulting impacts on lease residual values; the inability to deliver precision technology and agricultural solutions to customers; labor relations and contracts, including work stoppages and other disruptions; changes in the ability to attract, develop, engage, and retain qualified personnel; and the integration of acquired businesses.
Production & Precision Agriculture and Small Agriculture & Turf Operations
The company’s agricultural equipment operations are subject to a number of uncertainties, including customer profitability; consumer purchasing preferences; housing starts and supply; infrastructure investment; and consumable input costs. Additionally, these operations are subject to certain factors that affect farmers’ confidence and financial condition. These factors include demand for agricultural products; world grain stocks; soil conditions; harvest yields; prices for commodities and livestock; availability and cost of fertilizer; availability of transport for crops; the growth and sustainability of non-food uses for some crops (including ethanol and biodiesel production); real estate values; availability of technological innovations; available acreage for farming; changes in government farm programs and policies; changes in and effects of crop insurance programs; changes in environmental regulations and their impact on farming practices; animal diseases and their effects on poultry, beef, and pork consumption and prices on livestock feed demand; and crop pests and diseases.
Production and Precision Agriculture Operations
In addition to the uncertainties discussed above, the production and precision agriculture operations rely in part on hardware and software, guidance, connectivity and digital solutions, and automation and machine intelligence. Many factors contribute to the company’s production and precision agriculture sales and results, including the impact to customers’ profitability and/or sustainability outcomes.
Small Agriculture and Turf Equipment
In addition to the uncertainties discussed above, factors affecting the company’s small agriculture and turf equipment operations include spending by municipalities and golf courses.
Construction and Forestry
Factors affecting the company’s construction and forestry equipment operations include real estate and housing prices; the number of housing starts; commodity prices such as oil and gas; the levels of public and non-residential construction; and investment in infrastructure, while prices for pulp, paper, lumber, and structural panels affect sales of forestry equipment.
John Deere Financial
The liquidity and ongoing profitability of John Deere Capital Corporation and the company’s other financial services subsidiaries depend on timely access to capital to meet future cash flow requirements, and to fund operations, costs, and purchases of the company’s products. If general economic conditions deteriorate further or capital markets become more volatile, funding could be unavailable or insufficient. Additionally, customer confidence levels may result in declines in credit applications and increases in delinquencies and default rates, which could materially impact write-offs and provisions for credit losses.
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SUPPLEMENTAL CONSOLIDATING INFORMATION
The supplemental consolidating data presented on the subsequent pages is presented for informational purposes. The equipment operations represents the enterprise without financial services. The equipment operations includes the company’s production and precision agriculture operations, small agriculture and turf operations, construction and forestry operations, and other corporate assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses not reflected within financial services. Transactions between the “equipment operations” and “financial services” have been eliminated to arrive at the consolidated financial statements.
The equipment operations and financial services participate in different industries. The equipment operations generate earnings and cash flows by manufacturing and selling equipment, service parts, and technology solutions to dealers and retail customers. Financial services finances sales and leases by dealers of new and used equipment that is largely manufactured by the company. Those earnings and cash flows generally are the difference between the finance income received from customer payments less interest expense, and depreciation on equipment subject to an operating lease. The two businesses are capitalized differently and have separate performance metrics. The supplemental consolidating data is also used by management due to these differences.
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SUPPLEMENTAL CONSOLIDATING DATA
INCOME STATEMENTS
(In millions of dollars) Unaudited
EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL
OPERATIONS SERVICES ELIMINATIONS CONSOLIDATED
Net Sales and Revenues
1 Elimination of financial services’ interest income earned from equipment operations.
2 Elimination of equipment operations’ margin from inventory transferred to equipment on operating leases (see Note 6).
3 Elimination of financial services’ income related to intercompany guarantees of investments in certain international markets.
4 Elimination of intercompany service fees.
5 Elimination of equipment operations’ interest expense to financial services.
6 Elimination of financial services’ lease depreciation expense related to inventory transferred to equipment on operating leases.
7 Elimination of equipment operations’ expense related to intercompany guarantees of investments in certain international markets.
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SUPPLEMENTAL CONSOLIDATING DATA (continued)
CONDENSED BALANCE SHEETS
(In millions of dollars) Unaudited
EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL
OPERATIONS SERVICES ELIMINATIONS CONSOLIDATED
ASSETS
LIABILITIES
STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY
Noncontrolling interests 3 3 3 3
8 Elimination of receivables / payables between equipment operations and financial services.
9 Primarily reclassification of sales incentive accruals on receivables sold to financial services.
10 Reclassification of net pension assets / liabilities.
11 Reclassification of deferred tax assets / liabilities in the same taxing jurisdictions.
12 Elimination of financial services’ equity.
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SUPPLEMENTAL CONSOLIDATING DATA (continued)
STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(In millions of dollars) Unaudited
EQUIPMENT FINANCIAL
OPERATIONS SERVICES ELIMINATIONS CONSOLIDATED
13 Elimination of depreciation on leases related to inventory transferred to equipment on operating leases (see Note 6).
14 Reclassification of share-based compensation expense.
15 Elimination of dividends from financial services to the equipment operations, which are included in the equipment operations operating activities, and capital investments in financial services from the equipment operations.
16 Primarily reclassification of receivables related to the sale of equipment.
17 Reclassification of direct lease agreements with retail customers.
18 Reclassification of sales incentive accruals on receivables sold to financial services
19 Elimination and reclassification of the effects of financial services partial financing of the construction and forestry retail locations sales and subsequent collection of those amounts.
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FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT MARKET RISK INFORMATION
The company is naturally exposed to various interest rate and foreign currency risks. As a result, the company enters into derivative transactions to manage certain of these exposures that arise in the normal course of business and not for the purpose of creating speculative positions or trading. The company’s financial services operations manage the relationship of the types and amounts of their funding sources to their receivable and lease portfolio in an effort to diminish risk due to interest rate and foreign currency fluctuations while responding to favorable financing opportunities. In addition, the company has interest rate exposure at certain equipment operations units for sales incentive programs. Accordingly, from time to time, these operations enter into interest rate swap agreements to manage their interest rate exposure. The company also has foreign currency exposures at some of its foreign and domestic operations related to buying, selling, and financing in currencies other than the functional currencies. The company has entered into derivative agreements related to the management of these foreign currency transaction risks.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates rose in 2022 and further central bank policy rate increases are projected in 2023. Rising interest rates have historically impacted the company’s borrowings sooner than the benefit is realized from the financing receivable and equipment on operating lease portfolios. As a result, the company’s financial services operations experienced spread compression in 2022. If interest rates continue to rise, the company expects to continue experiencing spread compression in 2023.
Quarterly, the company uses a combination of cash flow models to assess the sensitivity of its financial instruments with interest rate exposure to changes in market interest rates. The models calculate the effect of adjusting interest rates as follows: cash flows for financing receivables are discounted at the current prevailing rate for each receivable portfolio, cash flows for marketable securities are discounted at the applicable benchmark yield curve plus market credit spreads, cash flows for unsecured borrowings are discounted at the applicable benchmark yield curve plus market credit spreads for similarly rated borrowers, cash flows for securitized borrowings are discounted at the swap yield curve plus a market credit spread for similarly rated borrowers, and cash flows for interest rate swaps are projected and discounted using forward rates from the swap yield curve at the repricing dates. The net impact in these financial instruments’ fair values which would be caused by increasing or decreasing the interest rates by 10 percent from the market rates at October 30, 2022 and October 31, 2021 would have been approximately $50 million and $20 million, respectively.
The company continues to transition its financing, funding, and hedging portfolios from the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) to alternative reference rates. These transition activities are not expected to have a material impact on the company’s financial statements.
Foreign Currency Risk
In the equipment operations, the company’s practice is to hedge significant currency exposures. Worldwide foreign currency exposures are reviewed quarterly. Based on the anticipated and committed foreign currency cash inflows, outflows, and hedging policy for the next twelve months, the company estimates that a hypothetical 10 percent strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies through 2023 would decrease the 2023 expected net cash inflows by approximately $125 million, with the estimated impacts by currency as follows:
(In millions of dollars) 2023
Australian dollar $ (100)
Brazilian real (150)
British pound (25)
Canadian dollar (25)
Euro 50
Japanese yen 125
Mexican peso 25
All other (25)
Total increase (decrease) $ (125)
At October 31, 2021, a hypothetical 10 percent strengthening of the U.S. dollar under similar assumptions and calculations indicated a potential $110 million decrease on the 2022 net cash inflows.
In the financial services operations, the company’s policy is to manage foreign currency risk through hedging strategies if the currency of the borrowings does not match the currency of the receivable portfolio. As a result, a hypothetical 10 percent adverse change in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to all other foreign currencies would not have a material effect on the financial services cash flows.
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DEERE & COMPANY
STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED INCOME
For the Years Ended October 30, 2022, October 31, 2021, and November 1, 2020
(In millions of dollars and shares except per share amounts)
Net Sales and Revenues
Costs and Expenses
Selling, administrative and general expenses 3,863 3,383 3,477
Income of Consolidated Group before Income Taxes 9,127 7,602 3,883
Equity in income (loss) of unconsolidated affiliates 10 21 (48)
Less: Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests (1) 2 2
Net Income Attributable to Deere & Company $ 7,131 $ 5,963 $ 2,751
Per Share Data
Dividends declared $ 4.36 $ 3.61 $ 3.04
Average Shares Outstanding
The notes to consolidated financial statements are an integral part of this statement.
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DEERE & COMPANY
STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED COMPREHENSIVE INCOME