ITEM 1A.RISK FACTORS
Risk Factors
Careful consideration should be given to the following risk factors, in addition to the other information set forth in this Annual Report and in other documents that we file with the SEC in evaluating the Company and our business. Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. If any of the following risks and uncertainties actually occur, our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected. The risks described below are not intended to be exhaustive and are not the only risks facing the Company. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial also may impact our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations.
Item 1A. Risk Factors.
In evaluating the Company and our business, careful consideration should be given to the following risk factors, in addition to the other information set forth in this Annual Report and in other documents that we file with the SEC. Our business faces significant risks and uncertainties. Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. If any of the following risks and uncertainties were to actually occur, our business, prospects, financial condition or results of operations could be materially and adversely affected. The risks described below are not intended to be exhaustive and are not the only risks facing the Company. New risk factors can emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict the impact that any one factor or combination of factors may have on our business, prospects, financial condition or results of operations.
Risks related to our financial position and need for additional capital
We have a limited operating history, have not completed any later-stage clinical trials, have no products approved for commercial sale and have not generated any revenue, which may make it difficult for investors to evaluate our current business and likelihood of success and viability.
We are a biopharmaceutical company with a limited operating history upon which investors can evaluate our business and prospects. We were incorporated in January 2017 and commenced significant operations in 2018, have never completed a Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical trial, have no products approved for commercial sale and have never generated any revenue. Drug development is a highly uncertain undertaking and involves a substantial degree of risk. To date, we have devoted substantially all of our resources to research and development activities, including with respect to NVL-520, our ROS1-selective inhibitor, NVL-655, our ALK-selective inhibitor, NVL-330, our HER2-selective inhibitor, and our discovery programs, business planning, establishing and maintaining our intellectual property portfolio, hiring personnel, raising capital and providing general and administrative support for these operations.
We have not yet demonstrated our ability to successfully complete Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical trials, obtain marketing approvals, manufacture a commercial-scale product or arrange for a third party to do so on our behalf, or conduct sales and marketing activities necessary for successful product commercialization. As a result, it may be more difficult for investors to evaluate our likelihood of success and viability than it could be if we had a longer operating history.
In addition, we may encounter unforeseen expenses, difficulties, complications, delays and other known and unknown factors and risks frequently experienced by biopharmaceutical companies at our stage of development in rapidly evolving fields. We also expect that, as we advance our product candidates, we will need to transition from a company with a research and development focus to a company capable of supporting commercial activities. We have not yet demonstrated an ability to successfully overcome such risks and difficulties, or to make such a transition. If we do not adequately address these risks and difficulties or successfully make such a transition, our business will suffer.
We have incurred significant net losses in each period since our inception, and we expect to continue to incur significant net losses for the foreseeable future.
We have incurred significant net losses in each reporting period since our inception, have not generated any revenue to date and have financed our operations principally through private placements and public offerings of securities. Our net losses were $126.2 million and $81.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. As of December 31, 2023, we had an accumulated deficit of $286.3 million. We have not yet completed any Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical trials. As a result, we expect that it will be several years, if ever, before we have a commercialized product and generate revenue from product sales. Even if we succeed in receiving marketing approval for and commercializing one or more of our product candidates, we expect that we will continue to incur substantial research and development and other expenses in order to discover, develop and market additional potential products.
We expect to continue to incur significant and increasing expenses and increasing operating losses for the foreseeable future. The net losses we incur may fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter such that a period-to-period comparison of our results of operations may not be a good indication of our future performance. The size of our future net losses will depend, in part, on the pace of our development activities and the rate of future growth of our expenses and our ability to generate revenue. Our prior losses and expected future losses have had and will continue to have an adverse effect on our working capital, our ability to fund the development of our product candidates and our ability to achieve and maintain profitability and the performance of our stock.
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Our ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability depends significantly on our ability to achieve our objectives relating to the discovery, development and commercialization of our product candidates.
We rely on our team’s expertise in chemistry, structure-based drug design, oncology drug development, business development and our patient-driven approach to develop our product candidates. Our business depends significantly on the success of our approach and the development and commercialization of the product candidates that we discover with this approach. We have no products approved for commercial sale and do not anticipate generating any revenue from product sales for the next several years, if ever. Our ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability depends significantly on our ability to achieve several objectives, including:
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successful and timely completion of preclinical and clinical development of NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and any future product candidates from our discovery programs, and any other future programs;
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maintaining current and establishing new relationships with CROs and clinical sites for the clinical development of NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and any future product candidates from our current or future discovery programs;
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timely receipt of marketing approvals from applicable regulatory authorities for any product candidates for which we successfully complete clinical development;
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developing an efficient and scalable manufacturing process for our product candidates, including the production of finished products that are appropriately packaged for sale if our product candidates obtain marketing approvals;
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maintaining current and establishing new commercially viable supply and manufacturing relationships with third parties that can provide adequate, in both amount and quality, products and services to support clinical development and meet the market demand for our product candidates, if approved;
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successful commercial launch following any marketing approval, including the development of a commercial infrastructure, whether in-house or with one or more collaborators;
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maintaining an acceptable safety profile following any marketing approval of our product candidates;
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commercial acceptance of our product candidates by patients, the medical community and third-party payors, including the willingness of physicians to use our product candidates, if approved, in lieu of (or in conjunction with) other approved therapies;
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satisfying any required post-marketing approval commitments to applicable regulatory authorities;
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identifying, assessing and developing new product candidates;
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obtaining, maintaining and expanding patent protection, trade secret protection and regulatory exclusivity, both in the U.S. and internationally;
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defending against third-party interference or infringement claims, if any;
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entering into, on favorable terms, any collaboration, licensing or other arrangements that may be necessary or desirable to develop, manufacture or commercialize our product candidates;
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obtaining coverage and adequate reimbursement by third-party payors for our product candidates, if approved;
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addressing any competing therapies and technological and market developments; and
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attracting, hiring and retaining qualified personnel.
We may never be successful in achieving our objectives and, even if we do, may never generate revenue that is significant or large enough to achieve profitability. If we do achieve profitability, we may not be able to sustain or increase profitability on a quarterly or annual basis. Our failure to become and remain profitable would decrease the value of our company and could impair our ability to maintain or further our research and development efforts, raise additional necessary capital, grow our business and continue our operations.
We will require substantial additional capital to finance our operations. If we are unable to raise such capital when needed, or on acceptable terms, we may be forced to delay, reduce or eliminate one or more of our research and drug development programs, future commercialization efforts, product development or other operations.
Since our inception, we have used substantial amounts of cash to fund our operations, and our expenses will increase substantially in the foreseeable future in connection with our ongoing activities, particularly as we continue the research and development of, initiate clinical trials of, and seek marketing approval for, our product candidates. Developing pharmaceutical products, including conducting preclinical studies and clinical trials, is a very time-consuming, expensive and uncertain process that takes years to complete. Even if one or more of our product candidates or any future product candidates that we develop is approved for commercial sale, we anticipate incurring significant costs associated with sales, marketing, manufacturing and distribution activities. Our expenses could increase beyond expectations if we are required by the FDA, the EMA or other regulatory authorities to perform clinical trials or preclinical studies in addition to those that we currently anticipate. Other unanticipated costs may also arise. Because the design and outcome of
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our clinical trials, including our planned and anticipated clinical trials, are highly uncertain, we cannot reasonably estimate the actual amount of resources and funding that will be necessary to successfully complete the development and commercialization of our product candidates or any future product candidates that we develop. We have initiated Phase 1/2 clinical trials for our parallel lead programs, NVL-520 and NVL-655. We have not yet initiated clinical trials for any of our other product candidates, including NVL-330, and we are not permitted to market or promote any product candidate before we receive marketing approval from the FDA, EMA or any comparable foreign regulatory authorities. We also continue to incur additional costs associated with operating as a public company. Accordingly, we will need to obtain substantial additional funding in order to continue our operations.
Based on our current operating plan, we believe that our existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of the date of this Annual Report, will be sufficient to fund our operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into 2027. Advancing the development of NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and our discovery programs will require a significant amount of capital. Our existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities will not be sufficient to fund all of our product candidates through regulatory approval, and we anticipate needing to raise additional capital to complete the development and commercialization of our product candidates. Our estimate as to how long we expect our existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities to fund our operations is based on assumptions that may prove to be wrong, and we could use our available capital resources sooner than we currently expect. Changing circumstances, some of which may be beyond our control, could cause us to consume capital significantly faster than we currently anticipate, and we may need to seek additional funds sooner than planned.
We will be required to obtain further funding through public or private equity financings, debt financings, collaborative agreements, licensing arrangements or other sources of financing, which may dilute our stockholders or restrict our operating activities. We do not have any committed external source of funds. Adequate additional financing may not be available to us on acceptable terms, or at all. Our ability to raise additional funds may be adversely impacted by general economic conditions, both inside and outside the U.S., including disruptions to, and instability and volatility in, the credit and financial markets in the U.S. and worldwide, including heightened inflation, interest rate and currency rate fluctuations, and economic slowdown or recession as well as concerns related to public health emergencies, natural disasters or geopolitical events, including civil or political unrest or military conflicts. In addition, market instability and volatility, high levels of inflation and interest rate fluctuations may increase our cost of financing or restrict our access to potential sources of future liquidity. To the extent that we raise additional capital through the sale of equity or convertible debt securities, each investor’s ownership interests will be diluted, and the terms may include liquidation or other preferences that adversely affect each investor’s rights as a stockholder. Debt financing may result in imposition of debt covenants, increased fixed payment obligations or other restrictions that may affect our business. If we raise additional funds through upfront payments or milestone payments pursuant to strategic collaborations with third parties, we may have to relinquish valuable rights to our product candidates or grant licenses on terms that are not favorable to us. In addition, we may seek additional capital due to favorable market conditions or strategic considerations even if we believe we have sufficient funds for our current or future operating plans.
Our failure to raise capital as and when needed or on acceptable terms would have a negative impact on our financial condition and our ability to pursue our business strategy, and we may have to delay, reduce the scope of, suspend or eliminate one or more of our research or drug development programs, clinical trials or future commercialization efforts.
Risks related to the discovery, development and commercialization of our product candidates
Our future prospects are substantially dependent on NVL-520, NVL-655 and NVL-330. If we are unable to advance these product candidates through development, obtain regulatory approval and ultimately commercialize such product candidates, or experience significant delays in doing so, our business will be materially harmed.
We have initiated Phase 1/2 clinical trials for NVL-520 and NVL-655. All of our other product candidates, including NVL-330, are still in preclinical development and have never been tested in humans. Our ability to generate product revenue, which we do not expect will occur for many years, if ever, will depend heavily on the successful preclinical and clinical development and eventual commercialization of one or more product candidates. We are not permitted to market or promote any product candidate before we receive marketing approval from the FDA, EMA or any comparable foreign regulatory authorities, and we may never receive such marketing approvals.
The success of our product candidates will depend on several factors, including the following:
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successful and timely completion of preclinical studies;
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submission of INDs in the U.S. and CTAs and/or comparable applications outside the U.S. for regulatory authority review and agreement to proceed with our clinical trials;
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successful initiation and completion of clinical trials;
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successful and timely patient selection and enrollment in and completion of clinical trials;
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maintaining and establishing relationships with CROs and clinical sites for the clinical development of our product candidates both in the U.S. and internationally;
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maintaining and growing an organization of chemists, medical and clinical development professionals and others who can develop and commercialize our product candidates;
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the frequency and severity of adverse events in clinical trials;
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obtaining positive data that support demonstration of efficacy, safety and tolerability profiles and durability of effect for our product candidates that are satisfactory to the FDA, EMA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority for marketing approval;
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the timely receipt of marketing approvals from applicable regulatory authorities;
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the timely identification, development and approval of companion diagnostic tests, if required;
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the extent of any required post-marketing approval commitments to applicable regulatory authorities;
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the maintenance of existing or the establishment of new supply arrangements with third-party drug product suppliers and manufacturers for clinical development and, if approved, commercialization of our product candidates;
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obtaining and maintaining patent protection, trade secret protection and regulatory exclusivity, both in the U.S. and internationally;
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the protection of our rights in our intellectual property portfolio;
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establishing sales, marketing and distribution capabilities and the successful launch of commercial sales of our product candidates if and when approved for marketing, whether alone or in collaboration with others;
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maintaining an acceptable safety profile following any marketing approval;
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commercial acceptance by patients, the medical community and third-party payors, including the willingness of physicians to use our product candidates, if approved, in lieu of (or in conjunction with) other approved therapies;
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our ability to compete with other therapies; and
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our ability to address any potential delays resulting from factors related to public health emergencies, natural disasters or geopolitical events.
We do not have complete control over many of these factors, including certain aspects of preclinical and clinical development and the regulatory submission process, potential threats to our intellectual property rights and the manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sales efforts of any future collaborator. If we are not successful with respect to one or more of these factors in a timely manner or at all, we could experience significant delays or an inability to successfully commercialize any product candidates from our lead programs, which would materially harm our business. If we do not receive marketing approvals for such product candidates, we may not be able to continue our operations.
Our preclinical studies and clinical trials may fail to adequately demonstrate the safety and efficacy of any of our product candidates, which would prevent or delay development, regulatory approval and commercialization.
Before obtaining marketing approval from the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities for the sale of our product candidates, we must demonstrate through lengthy, complex and expensive preclinical studies and clinical trials that our product candidates are both safe and effective for use in each target indication. Preclinical and clinical testing is expensive, difficult to design and implement, can take many years to complete and the ultimate outcome is uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the preclinical study and clinical trial processes, there is a high risk of failure, and we may never succeed in developing marketable products.
We may experience numerous unforeseen events during, or as a result of, clinical trials that could delay or prevent receipt of marketing approval or our ability to commercialize our product candidates, including:
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failure of our product candidates in preclinical studies or clinical trials to demonstrate safety and efficacy;
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receipt of feedback from regulatory authorities that requires us to modify the design of our clinical trials;
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negative or inconclusive clinical trial results that may require us to conduct additional clinical trials or abandon certain research, discovery and/or drug development programs;
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the number of patients required for clinical trials being larger than anticipated, enrollment in these clinical trials being slower than anticipated, particularly if there are other trials enrolling the same or overlapping precisely targeted patient populations, or participants dropping out of these clinical trials at a higher rate than anticipated;
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third-party contractors failing to comply with regulatory requirements or meet their contractual obligations to us in a timely manner, or at all;
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the suspension or termination of our clinical trials for various reasons, including non-compliance with regulatory requirements or a finding that our product candidates have undesirable adverse events or other unexpected characteristics or risks;
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the cost of clinical trials of our product candidates being greater than anticipated;
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the supply or quality of our product candidates or other materials necessary to conduct clinical trials of our product candidates being insufficient or inadequate; and
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regulators revising the requirements for approving our product candidates.
If we are required to conduct additional clinical trials or other testing of our product candidates beyond those that we are currently contemplating, if we are unable to successfully complete clinical trials of our product candidates or other testing in a timely manner, if the results of these trials or tests are not positive or are only modestly positive or if there are safety concerns, we may incur unplanned costs, be delayed in seeking and obtaining marketing approval, if we receive such approval at all, receive more limited or restrictive marketing approval, be subject to additional post-marketing testing requirements or have the drug removed from the market after obtaining marketing approval.
Our discovery and development activities are focused on the development of targeted therapeutics for patients with cancer-associated genomic alterations, which is a rapidly evolving area of science, and the approach we are taking to discover and develop drugs may never lead to approved or marketable products.
The discovery and development of targeted therapeutics for patients with cancer-associated genomic alterations is an emerging field, and the scientific discoveries that form the basis for our efforts to discover and develop product candidates are evolving. The scientific evidence to support the feasibility of developing product candidates based on these discoveries is both preliminary and limited. Although we believe, based on our preclinical work and clinical trials to date, that the genomic alterations targeted by our programs are oncogenic drivers, clinical results may not confirm this hypothesis or may only confirm it for certain alterations or certain tumor types. The patient populations for our product candidates are limited to those with specific target alterations and may not be completely defined but are substantially smaller than the general treated cancer population, and we will need to screen and identify these patients with targeted alterations. Successful identification of patients is dependent on several factors, including achieving certainty as to how specific alterations respond to our product candidates and the ability to identify such alterations, which may require the use of companion diagnostic tests. Furthermore, even if we are successful in identifying patients, we cannot be certain that the resulting patient populations for each mutation will be large enough to allow us to successfully obtain approval for each mutation type and commercialize our product candidates and achieve profitability. We do not know if our approach of focusing on treating patients with cancer-associated genomic alterations will be successful, and if our approach is unsuccessful, our business will suffer.
Any delays in the commencement or completion, or termination or suspension, of our planned or future clinical trials could result in increased costs to us, delay or limit our ability to generate revenue and adversely affect our commercial prospects.
Before we can initiate clinical trials of a product candidate in any indication, we must submit the results of preclinical studies to the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities along with other information, including information about the product candidate’s chemistry, manufacturing and controls and our proposed clinical trial protocol, as part of an IND or similar regulatory submission under which we must receive authorization to proceed with clinical development. The FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may require us to conduct additional preclinical studies for any product candidate before they allow us to initiate clinical trials under any IND, CTA or comparable application which may lead to additional delays and increase the costs of our preclinical development programs.
Before obtaining marketing approval from the FDA of NVL-520, NVL-655 or NVL-330 or of any other future product candidate in any indication, we must conduct extensive clinical studies to demonstrate safety and efficacy. Clinical testing is expensive, time consuming and uncertain as to outcome. In addition, we expect to rely in part on preclinical, clinical and quality data generated by our CROs and other third parties for regulatory submissions for our product candidates. While we have or will have agreements governing these third parties’ services, we have limited influence over their actual performance. If these third parties do not make data available to us, or, if applicable, make regulatory submissions in a timely manner, in each case pursuant to our agreements with them, our development programs may be significantly delayed and we may need to conduct additional studies or collect additional data independently. In either case, our development costs would increase. We have initiated Phase 1/2 clinical trials for NVL-520 and NVL-655, and plan to initiate a Phase 1 clinical trial for NVL-330 in 2024. IND submission must become effective prior to initiating any clinical trials in the U.S. for any of our future product candidates.
We could also encounter delays if a clinical trial is suspended or terminated by us, by the IRB or IEC of the institutions in which such trials are being conducted, by a DSMB for such trial or by the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities. Such authorities may impose such a suspension or termination due to a number of factors, including failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements or our clinical protocols, inspection of the clinical trial operations or trial site by the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities resulting in the imposition of a clinical hold, unforeseen safety issues or adverse events, failure to demonstrate a benefit from using a pharmaceutical, changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions or lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial. In addition, changes in regulatory requirements and policies may occur, and we may need to amend clinical trial protocols to comply with these changes. Amendments may require us to resubmit our clinical trial protocols to IRBs/IECs for reexamination, which may impact the costs, timing or successful completion of a clinical trial.
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Further, if we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies governing clinical trials, our development plans may be impacted. For example, in December 2022, with the passage of the FDORA, Congress required sponsors to develop and submit a diversity action plan for each Phase 3 clinical trial or any other “pivotal study” of a new drug or biological product. These plans are meant to encourage the enrollment of more diverse patient populations in late-stage clinical trials of FDA-regulated products. Similarly, the regulatory landscape related to clinical trials in the EU recently evolved. The EU Clinical Trials Regulation (CTR), which was adopted in April 2014 and repeals the EU Clinical Trials Directive, became applicable on January 31, 2022. While the Clinical Trials Directive required a separate CTA to be submitted in each member state, to both the competent national health authority and an IEC, the CTR introduces a centralized process and only requires the submission of a single application to all member states concerned. The CTR allows sponsors to make a single submission to both the competent authority and an ethics committee in each member state, leading to a single decision per member state.
Certain of our current or future scientific advisors or consultants who receive compensation from us may become investigators for our future clinical trials. Under certain circumstances, we may be required to report some of these relationships to the FDA. Although we expect any such relationships to be within the FDA’s guidelines, the FDA may conclude that a financial relationship between us and a principal investigator has created a conflict of interest or otherwise affected interpretation of the study. The FDA may therefore question the integrity of the data generated at the applicable clinical trial site and the utility of the clinical trial itself may be jeopardized. This could result in a delay in approval, or rejection, of our marketing applications by the FDA and may ultimately lead to the denial of marketing approval of our product candidates. If we experience delays in the completion of, or termination of, any clinical trial of any product candidate, the commercial prospects of such product candidate will be harmed, and our ability to generate product revenue will be delayed. Moreover, any delays in completing our clinical trials will increase our costs, slow down our development and approval process and jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenue, which may harm our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects significantly.
The outcome of preclinical testing and early clinical trials may not be predictive of the success of later clinical trials, and the results of our clinical trials may not satisfy the requirements of the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities.
We will be required to demonstrate with substantial evidence through well-controlled clinical trials that our product candidates are safe and effective for use in a diverse population before we can seek marketing approvals for their commercial sale. Preclinical and clinical testing is expensive and can take many years to complete, and its outcome is inherently uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the preclinical study and clinical trial processes, and there is a high risk of failure and we may never succeed in developing marketable products.
The results of preclinical studies may not be predictive of the results of clinical trials of our product candidates, and the results of early clinical trials may not be predictive of the results of later-stage clinical trials. Although product candidates may demonstrate promising results in preclinical studies and early clinical trials, they may not prove to be safe or effective in subsequent clinical trials. Favorable results from certain animal studies may not accurately predict the results of other animal studies or of human trials, due to the inherent biologic differences in species, the differences between testing conditions in animal studies and human trials, and the particular goals, purposes, and designs of the relevant studies and trials. We have, for example, observed preclinical CNS activity of NVL-330 in studies with rats and mice. These studies may or may not be predictive of CNS penetrance and activity of NVL-330 in human trials. Similarly, certain of our hypotheses regarding the potential clinical and therapeutic benefits of our product candidates compared to other products or molecules in development are based on observations from our preclinical studies, and results from such preclinical studies are not necessarily predictive of the results of later preclinical studies or clinical trials.
There is typically an extremely high rate of attrition from the failure of product candidates proceeding through preclinical studies and clinical trials. Product candidates in later stages of clinical trials may fail to show the desired safety and efficacy profile despite having progressed through preclinical studies and initial clinical trials. Likewise, early, smaller-scale clinical trials may not be predictive of eventual safety or effectiveness in large-scale pivotal clinical trials. Moreover, preclinical and clinical data are often susceptible to varying interpretations and analyses, and many companies that have believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in preclinical studies and clinical trials have nonetheless failed to obtain marketing approval of their drugs. A number of companies in the biopharmaceutical industry have suffered significant setbacks in advanced clinical trials due to lack of efficacy, insufficient durability of efficacy or unacceptable safety issues, notwithstanding promising results in earlier trials. Most product candidates that commence preclinical studies and clinical trials are never approved as products. The development of our product candidates and our stock price may also be impacted by inferences, whether correct or not, that are drawn between the success or failure of preclinical studies or clinical trials of our competitors or other companies in the biopharmaceutical industry, in addition to our own preclinical studies and clinical trials.
In some instances, there can be significant variability in safety and efficacy results between different clinical trials of the same product candidate due to numerous factors, including changes in trial protocols, differences in size and type of the patient populations, differences in and adherence to the dose and dosing regimen and other trial protocols and the rate of dropout among clinical trial participants. Patients treated with our product candidates may also be undergoing surgical, radiation and chemotherapy treatments and may be using other approved products or investigational new drugs, which can cause adverse events that are unrelated to our product candidates. As a result, assessments of efficacy can vary widely for a particular patient, and from patient to patient and site to site within a clinical trial. This subjectivity can increase the uncertainty of, and adversely impact, our clinical trial outcomes.
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Any preclinical studies or clinical trials that we conduct may not demonstrate the safety and efficacy necessary to obtain regulatory approval to market our product candidates. If the results of our ongoing or future preclinical studies and clinical trials are inconclusive with respect to the safety and efficacy of our product candidates, if we do not meet the clinical endpoints with statistical and clinically meaningful significance, or if there are safety concerns associated with our product candidates, we may be prevented or delayed in obtaining marketing approval for such product candidates.
We do not know whether any clinical trials we conduct will demonstrate consistent or adequate efficacy and safety sufficient to obtain approval to market any of our product candidates.
In addition to NVL-520, NVL-655 and NVL-330, our prospects depend in part upon discovering, developing and commercializing additional product candidates from our discovery programs, which may fail in development or suffer delays that adversely affect their commercial viability.
Our future operating results are dependent on our ability to successfully discover, develop, obtain regulatory approval for and commercialize NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and future product candidates from our discovery programs. A research candidate can unexpectedly fail at any stage of development. The historical failure rate for research candidates is high due to risks relating to safety, efficacy, clinical execution, changing standards of medical care and other unpredictable variables. The results from preclinical testing or early clinical trials of a product candidate may not be predictive of the results that will be obtained in later stage clinical trials of the product candidate.
The success of other research candidates that we may develop will depend on many factors, including the following:
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generating sufficient data to support the initiation or continuation of preclinical studies and clinical trials;
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obtaining regulatory permission to initiate clinical trials;
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contracting with the necessary parties to conduct clinical trials;
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successful enrollment of patients in, and the completion of, clinical trials on a timely basis;
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the timely manufacture of sufficient quantities of a product candidate for use in clinical trials;
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adverse events in clinical trials; and
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addressing any delays resulting from factors related to public health emergencies, natural disasters or geopolitical events.
Even if we successfully advance any research candidates into preclinical and clinical development, their success will be subject to all of the preclinical, clinical, regulatory and commercial risks described elsewhere in this “Risk Factors” section. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that we will ever be able to discover, develop, obtain regulatory approval of, commercialize or generate significant revenue from any product candidates.
Our approach to the discovery and development of product candidates is unproven, and we may not be successful in our efforts to use and expand our approach to build a pipeline of product candidates with commercial value.
A key element of our strategy, which is unproven, is to use and expand our expertise in chemistry, structure-based drug design and patient-driven approach to build a pipeline of product candidates and progress these product candidates through clinical development. Although our research and development efforts to date have resulted in the discovery of and initiation of clinical development of NVL-520 and NVL-655, and preclinical development of NVL-330, such product candidates and any other product candidates we may develop may not be safe or effective as cancer therapeutics, and we may not be able to develop any other product candidates. For example, we may not be successful in identifying genomic alterations that are oncogenic and are targeted for patient populations that result in sufficient enrollment size or present attractive commercial opportunities. Even if we are successful in building a pipeline of product candidates, the potential product candidates that we identify may not be suitable for clinical development or generate acceptable clinical data, including as a result of being shown to have unacceptable toxicity or other characteristics that indicate that they are unlikely to be product candidates that will receive marketing approval from the FDA, EMA or other regulatory authorities or achieve market acceptance. If we do not successfully develop and commercialize product candidates, we will not be able to generate product revenue in the future, which would result in significant harm to our financial position and adversely affect our business.
The regulatory approval processes of the FDA, EMA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities are lengthy, time consuming and inherently unpredictable. If we are ultimately unable to obtain regulatory approval of our product candidates, we will be unable to generate product revenue and our business will be substantially harmed.
Obtaining approval by the FDA, EMA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities is unpredictable, typically takes many years following the commencement of clinical trials and depends upon numerous factors, including the type, complexity and novelty of the product candidates involved. In addition, approval policies, regulations or the type and amount of clinical data necessary to gain approval may change during the course of a product candidate’s clinical development and may vary among jurisdictions, which may cause delays in the approval or the decision not to approve an application. Regulatory authorities have substantial discretion in the approval process and may refuse to accept any application or may decide that our data are insufficient for approval and require
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additional preclinical, clinical or other data. Even if we eventually complete clinical testing and receive approval for our product candidates, the FDA, EMA and other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may approve our product candidates for a more limited indication or a narrower patient population than we originally requested or may impose other prescribing limitations or warnings that limit the product candidate’s commercial potential. Even if approved, we may be required to conduct additional studies to verify or confirm the clinical benefits of our products. We have not submitted for, or obtained, regulatory approval for any product candidate, and it is possible that none of our product candidates will ever obtain regulatory approval. Further, development of our product candidates and/or regulatory approval may be delayed for reasons beyond our control.
Applications for our product candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval for many reasons, including the following:
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with the design, implementation or results of our clinical trials;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may determine that our product candidates are not safe and effective, are only moderately effective or have undesirable or unintended adverse events, toxicities or other characteristics that preclude our obtaining marketing approval or prevent or limit commercial use;
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the population studied in the clinical trial may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure efficacy and safety in the full population for which we seek approval;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with our interpretation of data from preclinical studies or clinical trials;
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the clinical data of the clinical trial may fail to meet the level of statistical significance required to obtain approval of our product candidates by the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities;
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we may be unable to demonstrate to the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities that our product candidates’ risk-benefit ratios for their proposed indications are acceptable;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may fail to approve the manufacturing processes, test procedures and specifications or facilities of third-party manufacturers with which we contract for clinical and commercial supplies;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable regulatory authorities may fail to approve companion diagnostic tests required for our product candidates;
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we may not obtain or maintain adequate funding to complete the clinical trial in a manner that is satisfactory to the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities; and
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the approval policies or regulations of the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for approval.
This lengthy approval process, as well as the unpredictability of the results of clinical trials, may result in our failing to obtain regulatory approval to market any of our product candidates, which would significantly harm our business, results of operations and prospects.
We have only limited experience as a company in the conduct of clinical trials.
We have only limited experience as a company in the conduct of clinical trials. In part because of this lack of experience as a company and our limited infrastructure, we cannot be certain that our preclinical studies and clinical trials will begin or be completed on time, if at all. Large-scale clinical trials require significant financial and management resources and we expect to rely on third-party clinical investigators, CROs, and consultants in connection with any large-scale clinical trials we conduct. Relying on third-party clinical investigators, CROs and consultants may result in us encountering delays that are outside of our control. We also may be unable to identify and contract with sufficient investigators, CROs and consultants on a timely basis or at all. There can be no assurance that we will be able to negotiate and enter into any necessary services agreement with CROs on terms that are acceptable to us on a timely basis or at all.
We may not be able to submit INDs, CTAs or comparable applications to commence clinical trials on the timelines we expect, and even if we are able to, the FDA, EMA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority may not permit us to proceed.
While we have submitted INDs for some of our product candidates, we may not be able to submit INDs for any other product candidates on the timelines we expect or such submissions may not take effect on the timeline that we anticipate or at all. For example, we may experience manufacturing delays or other delays with IND-enabling studies. Moreover, we cannot be sure that submission of an IND will result in the FDA allowing clinical trials to begin, or that, once begun, issues will not arise that suspend or terminate clinical trials. Additionally, even if the FDA agrees with the design and implementation of the clinical trials set forth in an IND, we cannot guarantee that it will not change its requirements in the future. These considerations also apply to new clinical trials we may submit as amendments to existing INDs or to a new IND. Any failure to submit INDs, CTAs or comparable applications on
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the timelines we expect or to obtain regulatory approvals for our planned clinical trials may prevent us from initiating or completing our clinical trials or commercializing our product candidates on a timely basis, if at all.
Our product candidates may cause significant adverse events, toxicities or other undesirable adverse events when used alone or in combination with other approved products or investigational new drugs that may result in a safety profile that could prevent regulatory approval, prevent market acceptance, limit their commercial potential or result in significant negative consequences.
If our product candidates are associated with undesirable adverse events or have unexpected characteristics in preclinical studies or clinical trials when used alone or in combination with other approved products or investigational new drugs, we may need to interrupt, delay or abandon their development or limit development to more narrow uses or subpopulations in which the undesirable adverse events or other characteristics are less prevalent, less severe or more acceptable from a risk-benefit perspective. Treatment-related adverse events could also affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled subjects to complete the trial or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the affected product candidate and may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly. There have been, and it is likely that there will be additional, adverse events associated with the use of our product candidates as is typically the case with oncology drugs. Results of our studies or trials could reveal a high and unacceptable severity and prevalence of these or other adverse events. In such an event, our trials could be suspended or terminated and the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities could order us to cease further development of or deny approval of our product candidates for any or all targeted indications. Drug-related adverse events could also affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled patients to complete the trial or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly.
In addition, our product candidates may be used in populations for which safety concerns may be particularly scrutinized by regulatory authorities. Our product candidates may be studied in combination with other therapies, which may exacerbate adverse events associated with the therapy. Patients treated with our product candidates may also be undergoing surgical, radiation and chemotherapy treatments, which can cause adverse events that are unrelated to our product candidates but may still impact the success of our clinical trials. The inclusion of critically ill patients in our clinical trials may result in deaths or other adverse medical events due to other therapies or medications that such patients may be using or due to the gravity of such patients’ illnesses. For example, it is expected that some of the patients to be enrolled in our current or future clinical trials may die or experience major clinical events either during the course of our clinical trials or after participating in such trials for non-treatment related reasons.
If significant adverse events are observed in any of our current or future clinical trials, we may have difficulty recruiting patients to the clinical trials, patients may drop out of our trials, or we may be required to abandon the trials or our development efforts of that product candidate altogether. We, the FDA, EMA, other comparable foreign regulatory authorities or an IRB may suspend clinical trials of a product candidate at any time for various reasons, including a belief that subjects in such trials are being exposed to unacceptable health risks or adverse events. Some potential therapeutics developed in the biotechnology industry that initially showed therapeutic promise in early-stage trials have later been found to cause adverse events that prevented their further development. Even if the adverse events do not preclude the product candidate from obtaining or maintaining marketing approval, undesirable adverse events may inhibit market acceptance due to its tolerability versus other therapies. Any of these developments could materially harm our business, financial condition and prospects. Further, if any of our product candidates obtains marketing approval, toxicities associated with such product candidates previously not seen during clinical testing may also develop after such approval and lead to a requirement to conduct additional clinical safety trials, additional contraindications, warnings and precautions being added to the drug label, significant restrictions on the use of the product or the withdrawal of the product from the market. We cannot predict whether our product candidates will cause toxicities in humans that would preclude or lead to the revocation of regulatory approval based on preclinical studies or early-stage clinical trials.
Interim, preliminary and topline data from our preclinical studies and clinical trials that we announce or publish from time to time may change as more data become available and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data.
We have publicly disclosed interim, preliminary or topline data from our preclinical studies and clinical trials and we expect to do so in the future. These interim updates are based on preliminary analyses of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular study or trial. For example, we may report responses in certain patients that are unconfirmed at the time and which do not ultimately result in confirmed responses to treatment after follow-up evaluations. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the interim, preliminary or topline results that we report may differ from future results of the same studies or trials, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Interim, preliminary and topline data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the interim, preliminary or topline data we previously published. As a result, interim, preliminary and topline data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. In addition, we may report interim analyses of only certain endpoints rather than all endpoints. Interim, preliminary and topline data from clinical trials are subject to the risk that one or more of the clinical outcomes may materially change as patient enrollment continues and more patient data become available. Adverse changes between interim, preliminary or topline data and final data could significantly harm our business and prospects. Further, additional disclosure of
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interim, preliminary or topline data by us or by our competitors in the future could result in volatility in the price of our Class A common stock.
In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or trial is typically selected from a more extensive amount of available information. Investors may not agree with what we determine is the material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our public disclosures, and any information we determine not to disclose may ultimately be deemed significant with respect to future decisions, conclusions, views, activities or otherwise regarding a particular product candidate or our business. If the interim, preliminary or topline data that we report differ from late, final or actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize, any of our product candidates may be harmed, which could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
If we experience delays or difficulties in the enrollment or maintenance of patients in clinical trials, our regulatory submissions or receipt of necessary marketing approvals could be delayed or prevented.
We may not be able to initiate or continue clinical trials for our product candidates if we are unable to locate and enroll a sufficient number of eligible patients to participate in these trials to such trial’s conclusion as required by the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Patient enrollment is a significant factor in the timing of clinical trials. Our ability to enroll eligible patients may be limited or may result in slower enrollment than we anticipate. We utilize genomic profiling of patients’ tumors to identify suitable patients for recruitment into our clinical trials for NVL-520 and NVL-655 and expect to do so for our planned clinical trials of NVL-330. For these product candidates, we seek patients with specific genomic alterations that our product candidates are designed to precisely target. We cannot be certain (i) how many patients will have the requisite genomic alterations that qualify for inclusion in our clinical trials, (ii) that the number of patients enrolled in each program will suffice for regulatory approval or (iii) if regulatory approval is obtained, whether each specific ROS1, ALK or HER2 alteration will be included in the approved drug label. Additionally, we face competition, including from large pharmaceutical companies with significantly more resources than us, for enrollment of our precisely targeted patient populations, which may impact our ability to successfully recruit patients for our clinical trials. If our strategies for patient identification and enrollment prove unsuccessful, we may have difficulty enrolling or maintaining patients appropriate for our product candidates.
Patient enrollment may be affected if our competitors have ongoing clinical trials for programs that are under development for the same indications as our product candidates, and patients who would otherwise be eligible for our clinical trials instead enroll in clinical trials of our competitors’ programs. Patient enrollment for our current or future clinical trials may be affected by other factors, including:
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size and nature of the patient population;
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severity of the disease under investigation;
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availability and efficacy of approved drugs for the disease under investigation;
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patient eligibility criteria for the trial in question as defined in the protocol, including biomarker-driven identification and/or certain highly-specific criteria related to stage of disease progression, which may limit the patient populations eligible for our clinical trials to a greater extent than competing clinical trials for the same indication that do not have a biomarker-driven patient eligibility criteria;
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perceived risks and benefits of the product candidate under study;
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clinicians’ and patients’ perceptions as to the potential advantages of the product candidate being studied in relation to other available therapies, including any new products that may be approved or other product candidates being investigated for the indications we are investigating;
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clinicians’ willingness to screen their patients for biomarkers to indicate which patients may be eligible for enrollment in our clinical trials;
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patient referral practices of physicians;
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the ability to monitor patients adequately during and after treatment;
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proximity and availability of clinical trial sites for prospective patients; and
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the risk that patients enrolled in clinical trials will drop out of the trials before completion or, because they may be late-stage cancer patients, will not survive the full terms of the clinical trials.
Our inability to enroll a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials would result in significant delays or may require us to abandon one or more clinical trials altogether. Enrollment delays in our clinical trials may result in increased development costs for our product candidates and jeopardize our ability to obtain marketing approval for the sale of our product candidates. Furthermore, even if we are able to enroll a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials, we may have difficulty maintaining participation in our clinical trials through the treatment and any follow-up periods.
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We have never commercialized a product candidate as a company before and currently lack the necessary expertise, personnel and resources to successfully commercialize any products on our own or together with suitable collaborators.
We have never commercialized a product candidate as a company. We may license certain rights with respect to our product candidates to collaborators, and, if so, we will rely on the assistance and guidance of those collaborators. For product candidates for which we retain commercialization rights and marketing approval, we will have to develop our own sales, marketing and supply organization or outsource these activities to a third party.
Factors that may affect our ability to commercialize our product candidates, if approved, on our own include recruiting and retaining adequate numbers of effective sales and marketing personnel, developing adequate educational and marketing programs to increase public acceptance of our approved product candidates, ensuring regulatory compliance of our company, employees and third parties under applicable healthcare laws, and other unforeseen costs associated with creating an independent sales and marketing organization. Developing a sales and marketing organization will be expensive and time-consuming and could delay the launch of our product candidates upon approval. We may not be able to build an effective sales and marketing organization. If we are unable to build our own distribution and marketing capabilities or to find suitable partners for the commercialization of our product candidates, we may not generate revenue from them or be able to reach or sustain profitability.
We have limited resources and are currently focusing our efforts on the development of NVL-520, NVL-655 and NVL-330 in particular indications and advancing our discovery programs. As a result, we may fail to capitalize on other indications or product candidates that may ultimately have proven to be more profitable.
We are currently focusing our resources and efforts on our lead product candidates, NVL-520 and NVL-655, for advanced ROS1-positive NSCLC and other solid tumors and advanced ALK-positive NSCLC and other solid tumors, respectively, on our NVL-330 product candidate for advanced HER2-altered NSCLC, and on advancing our discovery programs. As a result, because we have limited resources, we may forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities for other indications or with other product candidates that may have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future research and development activities for NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and our discovery programs may not yield any commercially viable products. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target markets for NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 or any future product candidates we identify through our discovery programs, we may enter into collaboration, licensing or other strategic arrangements with the effect of relinquishing valuable rights in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights.
We face substantial competition which may result in others discovering, developing or commercializing products before or more successfully than we do.
The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries are characterized by rapidly advancing technologies, intense competition and a strong emphasis on proprietary and novel products and product candidates. Our competitors have developed, are developing or may develop products, product candidates and processes competitive with our product candidates. Any product candidates that we successfully develop and commercialize will compete with existing therapies and new therapies that may become available in the future. We believe that a significant number of product candidates are currently under development, and may become commercially available in the future, for the treatment of conditions for which we may attempt to develop product candidates. In addition, our product candidates may need to compete with drugs physicians use off-label to treat the indications for which we seek approval. This may make it difficult for us to replace existing therapies with our product candidates.
In particular, there is intense competition in the field of oncology. We have competitors both in the U.S. and internationally, including major multinational pharmaceutical companies, established biotechnology companies, specialty pharmaceutical companies, emerging and start-up companies, universities and other research institutions. We also compete with these organizations to recruit and retain qualified scientific and management personnel, which could negatively affect our level of expertise and our ability to execute our business plan. We will also face competition in establishing clinical trial sites and patient registration for clinical trials, as well as in acquiring technologies complementary to, or necessary for, our programs.
We expect to face competition from existing products and products in development for each of our lead programs and in particular, our competitors that are developing product candidates often have the advantage of significant financial resources.
For NVL-520, there are currently three ROS1-targeted kinase inhibitors approved by the FDA for use in TKI naïve ROS1-positive NSCLC: crizotinib, entrectinib and repotrectinib. Crizotinib has also received approval for treatment of ALK-positive NSCLC. Ceritinib and lorlatinib are considered as other therapies recommended for use in ROS1-positive NSCLC patients according to NCCN guidelines. Lorlatinib is a dual ALK/ROS1 inhibitor that has received marketing approval for the treatment of ALK-positive NSCLC, and has demonstrated CNS activity as reported in its prescribing information. AnHeart Therapeutics’ taletrectinib is a dual TRK/ROS1 inhibitor and is in development for patients with ROS1-positive NSCLC.
For NVL-655, there are five ALK inhibitors approved by the FDA for the treatment of ALK-positive NSCLC: crizotinib, lorlatinib, ceritinib, alectinib, and brigatinib. All five have line-agnostic approvals for the treatment of ALK-positive NSCLC patients, including
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for patients who are TKI naïve. Additionally, lorlatinib has demonstrated activity in patients that have progressed on crizotinib, alectinib, or ceritinib.
For NVL-330, there is currently one antibody-drug conjugate approved by the FDA for the treatment of HER2 mutant NSCLC: fam-trastuzumab deruxtecan-nxki. There are no kinase inhibitors approved for this patient population. Other kinase inhibitors in development for patients with HER2 mutant NSCLC include Shanghai Hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.’s pyrotinib, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s zongertinib (BI-1810631), and Enliven Therapeutics’ ELVN-002.
Many of our competitors, either alone or with their collaborators, have significantly greater financial resources, established presence in the market, and expertise in research and development, manufacturing, preclinical and clinical testing, obtaining regulatory approvals and reimbursement and marketing approved products than we do. Large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, in particular, have extensive experience in clinical testing, obtaining regulatory approvals, recruiting patients and manufacturing biotechnology product candidates. These companies also have significantly greater research and marketing capabilities than we do and may also have product candidates that have been approved or are in late stages of development, and collaborative arrangements in our target markets with leading companies and research institutions. Established pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies may also invest heavily to accelerate discovery and development of novel compounds or to in-license novel compounds that could make the product candidates that we develop obsolete. Smaller or early-stage companies may also prove to be significant competitors, particularly through collaborative arrangements with large and established companies, as well as in acquiring technologies complementary to, or necessary for, our programs. As a result of all of these factors, our competitors may succeed in obtaining approval from the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities or in discovering, developing and commercializing product candidates in our field before we do.
Our potential commercial opportunity could be reduced or eliminated if our competitors develop and commercialize products that are safer, more effective, have fewer or less severe adverse events, are more convenient, have a broader label, are marketed more effectively, are more widely reimbursed or are less expensive than any products that we may develop. Physicians may be more willing to prescribe our competitors’ products for various reasons, and may rely on guidelines related to treatment of patients issued by medical societies, industry groups or other organizations, which may not include, and may never include, our products. Our competitors also may obtain marketing approval from the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities for their products more rapidly than we may obtain approval for ours, which could result in our competitors establishing a strong market position before we are able to enter the market or make our development and marketing more complicated. Even if the product candidates we develop achieve marketing approval, they may be priced at a significant premium over competitive products if any have been approved by then, resulting in reduced competitiveness. Technological advances or products developed by our competitors may render our technologies or product candidates obsolete, less competitive or not economical. If we are unable to compete effectively, our opportunity to generate revenue from the sale of our products we may develop, if approved, could be adversely affected.
The manufacture of drugs is complex, and our third-party manufacturers may encounter difficulties in production. If any of our third-party manufacturers encounter such difficulties, our ability to provide adequate supply of our product candidates for clinical trials or our products for patients, if approved, could be delayed or prevented.
Manufacturing drugs, especially in large quantities, is complex and may require the use of innovative technologies. Each lot of an approved drug product must undergo thorough testing for identity, strength, quality, purity and potency. Manufacturing drugs requires facilities specifically designed for and validated for this purpose, as well as sophisticated quality assurance and quality control procedures. Slight deviations anywhere in the manufacturing process, including filling, labelling, packaging, storage and shipping and quality control and testing, may result in lot failures, product recalls or spoilage. When changes are made to the manufacturing process, we may be required to provide preclinical and clinical data showing the comparable identity, strength, quality, purity or potency of the products before and after such changes. If microbial, viral or other contaminations are discovered at the facilities of our manufacturers, such facilities may need to be closed for an extended period of time to investigate and remedy the contamination, which could delay clinical trials and adversely harm our business. Contaminations can also lead to allegations of harm, including infections or allergic reactions, or closure of product facilities due to possible contamination.
If our third-party manufacturers are unable to produce sufficient quantities for clinical trials or for commercialization as a result of these challenges, or otherwise, our development and commercialization efforts would be impaired, which would have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
Changes in methods of product candidate manufacturing or formulation may result in additional costs or delay.
As product candidates progress through preclinical and clinical trials to marketing approval and commercialization, it is common that various aspects of the development program, such as manufacturing methods and formulation, are altered along the way in an effort to optimize yield and manufacturing batch size, minimize costs and achieve consistent quality and results. For example, we may introduce an alternative formulation of one or more of our product candidates during the course of our clinical trials. Such changes carry the risk that they will not achieve these intended objectives. Any of these changes could cause our product candidates to perform differently and affect the results of clinical trials conducted with the altered materials. This could delay completion of clinical trials, require the conduct of bridging clinical trials or the repetition of one or more clinical trials, increase clinical trial costs, delay approval
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of our product candidates and jeopardize our ability to commercialize our product candidates, if approved, and impair our ability to generate revenue.
Our product candidates may not achieve adequate market acceptance among physicians, patients, healthcare payors and others in the medical community necessary for commercial success.
Even if our product candidates receive regulatory approval, they may not gain adequate market acceptance among physicians, patients, third-party payors and others in the medical community. The degree of market acceptance of any of our approved product candidates will depend on a number of factors, including:
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the efficacy and safety profile as demonstrated in clinical trials compared to alternative treatments;
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the timing of market introduction of the product candidate as well as competitive products;
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the clinical indications for which a product candidate is approved;
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restrictions on the use of product candidates in the labelling approved by regulatory authorities, such as boxed warnings or contraindications in labelling, or a REMS, if any, which may not be required of alternative treatments and competitor products;
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the potential and perceived advantages of our product candidates over alternative treatments;
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the cost of treatment in relation to alternative treatments;
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the availability of coverage and adequate reimbursement by third-party payors, including government authorities;
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willingness of physicians to use our product candidates, if approved, in lieu of (or in conjunction with) other approved therapies;
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the availability of an approved product candidate for use as a combination therapy;
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relative convenience and ease of administration;
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the willingness of the target patient population to try new therapies and undergo required diagnostic screening to determine treatment eligibility and of physicians to prescribe these therapies and diagnostic tests;
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the effectiveness of sales and marketing efforts;
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unfavorable publicity relating to our product candidates; and
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the approval of other new therapies for the same indications.
If any of our product candidates are approved but do not achieve an adequate level of acceptance by physicians, hospitals, healthcare payors and patients, we may not generate or derive sufficient revenue from that product candidate and our financial results could be negatively impacted.
The market opportunities for any product candidates we develop, if approved, may be limited to certain smaller patient subsets and may be smaller than we estimate them to be.
When cancer is detected early (referred to as localized disease), conventional treatments, which include chemotherapy, hormone therapy, surgery and radiation therapy and/or selected targeted therapies, may be adequate to cure the patient in many cases. However, once cancer has spread to other areas (advanced or metastatic disease), cancer treatments may not be sufficient to provide a cure but often can significantly prolong life without curing the cancer. First-line therapies designate treatments that are initially administered to patients with advanced or metastatic disease, while second- and third-line therapies are administered to patients when the prior therapies lose their effectiveness. The FDA, EMA and other regulatory bodies often approve cancer therapies for a particular line of treatment. Typically, drug approvals are initially granted for use in later lines of treatment, but with additional evidence of significant efficacy from clinical trials, biopharmaceutical companies can successfully seek and gain approval for use in earlier lines of treatment.
We plan to initially seek approval of NVL-520, NVL-655, NVL-330 and any other future product candidates in most instances for previously treated patients with advanced or metastatic cancer where at least one prior therapy has limited clinical benefit or where tumors have developed resistance to such therapy. For those product candidates that prove to be sufficiently safe and effective, if any, we would potentially expect to seek approval ultimately as a first line TKI therapy. There is no guarantee that our product candidates, even if approved for previously treated patients would be approved for an earlier line of therapy, and prior to any such approvals we may have to conduct additional clinical trials that may be costly, time-consuming and subject to risk.
Our projections of both the number of people who have the cancers we are targeting, as well as the subset of people with these cancers in a position to receive a particular line of therapy and who have the potential to benefit from treatment with our product candidates, are based on our beliefs and estimates. These estimates have been derived from a variety of sources, including scientific literature, surveys of clinics, patient foundations or market research, and may prove to be incorrect. Further, new data and studies may change the estimated incidence or prevalence of the cancers that we are targeting, especially if new therapies that are approved while we advance our product candidates affect the treatment paradigm and/or the size of the target population. The potentially addressable patient population for our product candidates may be limited or may not be amenable to treatment with our product candidates.
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Consequently, even if our product candidates are approved, the number of patients that may be eligible for treatment with our product candidates may turn out to be much lower than expected. In addition, we have not yet conducted market research to determine how treating physicians would expect to prescribe a product that is approved for multiple tumor types if there are different lines of approved therapies for each such tumor type. Even if we obtain significant market share for our products, if approved, if the potential target populations are small, we may never achieve profitability without obtaining regulatory approval for additional indications.
Any product candidates we develop may become subject to unfavorable third-party coverage and reimbursement practices, as well as pricing regulations.
Patients rely on insurance coverage by third-party payors (third-party payors include Medicare and Medicaid (government payors) and commercial insurance companies such as Blue Cross Blue Shield, Humana, Cigna, etc.), to pay for products. The availability and extent of coverage and adequate reimbursement by third-party payors, including government health administration authorities, private health coverage insurers, managed care organizations and other third-party payors is essential for most patients to be able to afford expensive treatments. Sales of any of our product candidates that receive marketing approval will depend substantially, both in the U.S. and internationally, on the extent to which the costs of such product candidates will be covered and reimbursed by third-party payors. No uniform policy exists for coverage and reimbursement in the U.S. If reimbursement is not available, or is available only to limited levels, we may not be able to successfully commercialize our product candidates. Even if coverage is provided, the approved reimbursement amount may not be high enough to allow us to establish or maintain pricing sufficient to realize an adequate return on our investment. Coverage and reimbursement may impact the demand for, or the price of, any product candidate for which we obtain marketing approval. If coverage and reimbursement are not available or reimbursement is available only to limited levels, we may not successfully commercialize any product candidate for which we obtain marketing approval.
There is significant uncertainty related to third-party payor coverage and reimbursement of newly approved products. In the U.S., for example, principal decisions about reimbursement for new products are typically made by the CMS, an agency within HHS. CMS decides whether and to what extent a new product will be covered and reimbursed under Medicare, and private third-party payors often follow CMS’s decisions regarding coverage and reimbursement to a substantial degree. However, one third-party payor’s determination to provide coverage for a product candidate does not assure that other payors will also provide coverage for the product candidate. As a result, the coverage determination process is often time-consuming and costly. Factors payors consider in determining reimbursement are based on whether the product is: (i) a covered benefit under its health plan; (ii) safe, effective and medically necessary; (iii) appropriate for the specific patient; (iv) cost-effective; and (v) neither experimental nor investigational. This process will require us to provide scientific and clinical support for the use of our products to each third-party payor separately, with no assurance that coverage and adequate reimbursement will be applied consistently or obtained in the first instance.
As federal and state governments implement additional health care cost containment measures, including measures to lower prescription drug pricing, we cannot be sure that our products, if approved, will be covered by private or public payors, and if covered, whether the reimbursement will be adequate or competitive with other marketed products. Such other actions by federal and state governments and health plans may put additional downward pressure on pharmaceutical pricing and health care costs, which could negatively impact coverage and reimbursement for our products if approved, our revenue, and our ability to compete with other marketed products and to recoup the costs of our research and development. For further discussion, see “— Current and future legislation may increase the difficulty and cost for us to obtain reimbursement for our product candidates;” and “— The prices of prescription pharmaceuticals in the U.S. and foreign jurisdictions are the subject of considerable legislative and executive actions and could impact the prices we obtain for our products, if and when licensed for marketing.”
Increasingly, third-party payors are requiring that drug companies provide them with predetermined discounts from list prices and are challenging the prices charged for medical products. Further, such payors are increasingly challenging the price, examining the medical necessity and reviewing the cost effectiveness of medical product candidates. There may be especially significant delays in obtaining coverage and reimbursement for newly approved drugs. Third-party payors may limit coverage to specific product candidates on an approved list, known as a formulary, which might not include all FDA-approved drugs for a particular indication. We may need to conduct expensive pharmaco-economic studies to demonstrate the medical necessity and cost effectiveness of our products. Nonetheless, our product candidates may not be considered medically necessary or cost effective. We cannot be sure that coverage and reimbursement will be available for any product that we commercialize and, if reimbursement is available, what the level of reimbursement will be.
In addition, companion diagnostic tests require coverage and reimbursement separate and apart from the coverage and reimbursement for their companion pharmaceutical or products. Similar challenges to obtaining coverage and reimbursement, applicable to pharmaceutical or products, will apply to companion diagnostics. Additionally, if any companion diagnostic provider is unable to obtain reimbursement or is inadequately reimbursed, that may limit the availability of such companion diagnostic, which would negatively impact prescriptions for our product candidates, if approved.
Outside the U.S., the commercialization of therapeutics is generally subject to extensive governmental price controls and other market regulations, and we believe the increasing emphasis on cost containment initiatives in Europe, Canada and other countries has and will continue to put pressure on the pricing and usage of therapeutics such as our product candidates. In many countries, particularly the countries of the EU, medical product prices are subject to varying price control mechanisms as part of national health systems. In
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these countries, pricing negotiations with governmental authorities can take considerable time after a product receives marketing approval. To obtain reimbursement or pricing approval in some countries, we may be required to conduct a clinical trial that compares the cost-effectiveness of our product candidate to other available therapies. In general, product prices under such systems are substantially lower than in the U.S. Other countries allow companies to fix their own prices for products but monitor and control company profits. Additional foreign price controls or other changes in pricing regulation could restrict the amount that we are able to charge for our product candidates. Accordingly, in markets outside the U.S., the reimbursement for our products may be reduced compared with the U.S. and may be insufficient to generate commercially reasonable revenue and profits.
If we are unable to establish or sustain coverage and adequate reimbursement for any product candidates from third-party payors, the adoption of those products and sales revenue will be adversely affected, which, in turn, could adversely affect the ability to market or sell those product candidates, if approved. Coverage policies and third-party payor reimbursement rates may change at any time. Even if favorable coverage and reimbursement status is attained for one or more products for which we receive regulatory approval, less favorable coverage policies and reimbursement rates may be implemented in the future.
Our business entails a significant risk of product liability and if we are unable to obtain sufficient insurance coverage such inability could have an adverse effect on our business and financial condition.
Our business exposes us to significant product liability and other risks inherent in the development, testing, manufacturing and marketing of therapeutic treatments. Product liability and other claims or incidents, such as cyber incidents and breaches, could delay or prevent completion of our development programs. If we succeed in marketing products, such claims could result in an FDA, EMA or other regulatory authority investigation of the safety and effectiveness of our products, our manufacturing processes and facilities or our marketing programs. FDA, EMA or other regulatory authority investigations could potentially lead to a recall of our products or more serious enforcement action, limitations on the approved indications for which they may be used or suspension or withdrawal of approvals. Regardless of the merits or eventual outcome, liability claims may also result in decreased demand for our products, injury to our reputation, costs to defend the related litigation, a diversion of management’s time and our resources and substantial monetary awards to trial participants or patients. We currently have product liability and other insurance that we believe is appropriate for our stage of development and may need to obtain higher levels prior to advancing our product candidates into later stages of development or marketing any of our product candidates, if approved. Any insurance we have or may obtain may not provide sufficient coverage against potential liabilities. Furthermore, clinical trial, product liability, and other types of insurance (such as cyber insurance) is becoming increasingly expensive and difficult to obtain. As a result, we may be unable to obtain sufficient insurance at a reasonable cost to protect us against losses caused by product liability or other claims or incidents, including data breach and incidents, that could have an adverse effect on our business and financial condition.
Risks related to regulatory approval and other legal compliance matters
We may be unable to obtain U.S. or foreign regulatory approval and, as a result, may be unable to commercialize our product candidates.
Our product candidates are and will continue to be subject to extensive governmental regulations relating to, among other things, research, testing, development, manufacturing, safety, efficacy, approval, recordkeeping, reporting, labelling, storage, packaging, advertising and promotion, pricing, marketing and distribution of drugs. Rigorous preclinical testing and clinical trials and an extensive regulatory approval process must be successfully completed in the U.S. and in many foreign jurisdictions before a new drug can be approved for marketing. Satisfaction of these and other regulatory requirements is costly, time consuming, uncertain and subject to unanticipated delays. We cannot provide any assurance that any product candidate we may develop will progress through required clinical testing and obtain the regulatory approvals necessary for us to begin selling them.
We have not conducted, managed or completed large-scale or pivotal clinical trials nor managed the regulatory approval process with the FDA, EMA or any other regulatory authority. The time required to obtain approvals from the FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities is unpredictable and requires successful completion of extensive clinical trials which typically takes many years, depending upon the type, complexity and novelty of the product candidate. The standards that the FDA and its foreign counterparts use when evaluating clinical trial data can, and often does, change during drug development, which makes it difficult to predict with any certainty how they will be applied. We may also encounter unexpected delays or increased costs due to new government regulations, including future legislation or administrative action, or changes in applicable FDA, EMA or other regulatory policy during the period of drug development, clinical trials and regulatory review.
Applications for our product candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval for many reasons, including the following:
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with the design, implementation or results of our clinical trials;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may determine that our product candidates are not safe and effective or have undesirable or unintended adverse events, toxicities or other characteristics that preclude our obtaining marketing approval or prevent or limit commercial use;
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the population studied in the clinical trial may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure efficacy and safety in the full population for which we seek approval;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with our interpretation of data from preclinical studies or clinical trials;
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we may be unable to demonstrate to the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities that our product candidates’ risk-benefit ratios for their proposed indications are acceptable;
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the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may fail to approve the manufacturing processes, test procedures and specifications or facilities of third-party manufacturers with which we contract for clinical and commercial supplies; and
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the approval policies or regulations of the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for approval.
Any delay or failure in seeking or obtaining required approvals would have a material and adverse effect on our ability to generate revenue from any particular product candidates we are developing and for which we are seeking approval. Furthermore, any regulatory approval to market a drug may be subject to significant limitations on the approved uses or indications for which we may market, promote and advertise the drug or the labelling or other restrictions. In addition, the FDA has the authority to require a REMS plan as part of approving a NDA, or after approval, which may impose further requirements or restrictions on the distribution or use of an approved drug. These requirements or restrictions might include limiting prescribing to certain physicians or medical centers that have undergone specialized training, limiting treatment to patients who meet certain safe-use criteria and requiring treated patients to enroll in a registry. These limitations and restrictions may significantly limit the size of the market for the drug and affect reimbursement by third-party payors.
We are also subject to numerous foreign regulatory requirements governing, among other things, the conduct of clinical trials, manufacturing and marketing authorization, pricing and third-party reimbursement. The foreign regulatory approval process varies among countries, and generally includes all of the risks associated with FDA approval described above as well as risks attributable to the satisfaction of local regulations in foreign jurisdictions. Moreover, the time required to obtain approval may differ from that required to obtain FDA approval.
We may develop our current or future product candidates in combination with other therapies, which would expose us to additional risks.
We may develop our current or future product candidates in combination with one or more currently approved cancer therapies or therapies in development. Even if any of our current or future product candidates were to receive marketing approval or be commercialized for use in combination with other existing therapies, we would continue to be subject to the risks that the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities could revoke approval of the therapy used in combination with any of our product candidates, or safety, efficacy, manufacturing or supply issues could arise with these existing therapies. In addition, it is possible that existing therapies with which our product candidates are approved for use could themselves fall out of favor or be relegated to later lines of treatment. This could result in the need to identify other combination therapies for our product candidates or our own products being removed from the market or being less successful commercially.
We may also evaluate our current or future product candidates in combination with one or more other cancer therapies that have not yet been approved for marketing by the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. We will not be able to market and sell any product candidate in combination with any such unapproved cancer therapies that do not ultimately obtain marketing approval.
If the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities do not approve or withdraw their approval of these other therapies, or if safety, efficacy, commercial adoption, manufacturing or supply issues arise with the therapies we choose to evaluate in combination with any of our current or future product candidates, we may be unable to obtain approval of or successfully market any one or all of the current or future product candidates we develop. Additionally, if the third-party providers of therapies or therapies in development used in combination with our current or future product candidates are unable to produce sufficient quantities for clinical trials or for commercialization of our current or future product candidates, or if the cost of combination therapies are prohibitive, our development and commercialization efforts would be impaired, which would have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
We have conducted and intend to continue conducting certain of our clinical trials globally. However, the FDA and other foreign equivalents may not accept data from such trials, in which case our development plans may be delayed, which could materially harm our business.
We have conducted and intend to continue conducting certain of our clinical trials globally. The acceptance by the FDA or other regulatory authorities of study data from clinical trials conducted outside of their respective jurisdictions may be subject to certain conditions or may not be accepted at all. In cases where data from foreign clinical trials are intended to serve as the sole basis for
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marketing approval in the U.S., the FDA will generally not approve the application on the basis of foreign data alone unless (i) the data are applicable to the U.S. population and U.S. medical practice; (ii) the trials were performed by clinical investigators of recognized competence and pursuant to GCP regulations; and (iii) the data may be considered valid without the need for an on-site inspection by the FDA, or if the FDA considers such inspection to be necessary, the FDA is able to validate the data through an on-site inspection or other appropriate means.
In addition, even where the foreign study data are not intended to serve as the sole basis for approval, the FDA will not accept the data as support for an application for marketing approval unless the study is well-designed and well-conducted in accordance with GCP requirements, and the FDA is able to validate the data from the study through an onsite inspection if deemed necessary. Many foreign regulatory authorities have similar approval requirements. In addition, such foreign trials would be subject to the applicable local laws of the foreign jurisdictions where the trials are conducted. There can be no assurance that the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority will accept data from trials conducted outside of the U.S. or the applicable jurisdiction. If the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority does not accept such data, it would result in the need for additional trials, which would be costly and time-consuming and delay aspects of our business plan, and which may result in our product candidates not receiving approval or clearance for commercialization in the applicable jurisdiction.
Conducting clinical trials outside the U.S. also exposes us to additional risks, including risks associated with:
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additional foreign regulatory requirements;
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foreign exchange fluctuations;
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compliance with foreign manufacturing, customs, shipment and storage requirements;
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cultural differences in medical practice and clinical research;
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diminished protection of intellectual property in some countries; and
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interruptions or delays in our trials resulting from geopolitical events, including civil or political unrest or military conflicts.
Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approval of our product candidates in one jurisdiction does not mean that we will be successful in obtaining regulatory approval of our product candidates in other jurisdictions.
Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approval of our product candidates in one jurisdiction does not guarantee that we will be able to obtain or maintain regulatory approval in any other jurisdiction. For example, even if the FDA or EMA grants marketing approval of a product candidate, comparable regulatory authorities in foreign jurisdictions must also approve the manufacturing, marketing and promotion and reimbursement of the product candidate in those countries. However, a failure or delay in obtaining regulatory approval in one jurisdiction may have a negative effect on the regulatory approval process in others. Approval procedures vary among jurisdictions and can involve requirements and administrative review periods different from those in the U.S., including additional preclinical studies or clinical trials as clinical trials conducted in one jurisdiction may not be accepted by regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions. In many jurisdictions outside the U.S., a product candidate must be approved for reimbursement before it can be approved for sale in that jurisdiction. In some cases, the price that we intend to charge for our products is also subject to approval.
Obtaining foreign regulatory approvals and establishing and maintaining compliance with foreign regulatory requirements could result in significant delays, difficulties and costs for us and could delay or prevent the introduction of our products in certain countries. If we or any future collaborator fail to comply with the regulatory requirements in international markets or fail to receive applicable marketing approvals, our target market will be reduced and our ability to realize the full market potential of our potential product candidates will be harmed.
Further, we could face heightened risks with respect to obtaining marketing authorization in the U.K. as a result of the withdrawal of the U.K. from the EU, commonly referred to as Brexit. The U.K. is no longer part of the European Single Market and EU Customs Union. As of January 1, 2021, the MHRA became responsible for supervising medicines and medical devices in Great Britain, comprising England, Scotland, and Wales under domestic law, whereas under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol, Northern Ireland is currently subject to EU rules. The U.K. and EU have, however, agreed to the Windsor Framework, which fundamentally changes the existing system under the Northern Ireland Protocol, including with respect to the regulation of medicinal products in the U.K. Once implemented, the changes introduced by the Windsor Framework will make the MHRA responsible for approving all medicinal products destined for the U.K. market (i.e., Great Britain and Northern Ireland), and the EMA will no longer have any role in approving medicinal products destined for Northern Ireland.
In addition, foreign regulatory authorities may change their approval policies and new regulations may be enacted. For instance, the EU pharmaceutical legislation is currently undergoing a complete review process, in the context of the Pharmaceutical Strategy for Europe initiative, launched by the European Commission in November 2020. The European Commission’s proposal for revision of several legislative instruments related to medicinal products (potentially reducing the duration of regulatory data protection, revising the eligibility for expedited pathways, etc.) was published on April 26, 2023. The proposed revisions remain to be agreed and adopted by the European Parliament and European Council and the proposals may therefore be substantially revised before adoption, which is
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not anticipated before early 2026. The revisions may however have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical industry and our business in the long term.
Any delay in obtaining, or an inability to obtain, any marketing approvals, as a result of Brexit or otherwise, may force us to restrict or delay efforts to seek regulatory approval in the U.K. for our product candidates, which could significantly and materially harm our business. Further, clinical trials conducted in one country may not be accepted by regulatory authorities in other countries. Also, regulatory approval for our product candidates may be withdrawn. If we fail to comply with the applicable regulatory requirements, our target market will be reduced and our ability to realize the full market potential of our product candidates will be harmed and our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects could be harmed.
Even if our product candidates receive regulatory approval, they will be subject to significant post-marketing regulatory requirements and oversight.
Any regulatory approvals that we may receive for our product candidates will require the submission of reports to regulatory authorities and ongoing surveillance to monitor the safety and efficacy of the product candidate, may contain significant limitations related to use restrictions for specified age groups, warnings, precautions or contraindications, and may include burdensome post-approval study or risk management requirements and regulatory inspection. For example, the FDA may require a REMS in order to approve our product candidates, which could entail requirements for a medication guide, physician training and communication plans or additional elements to ensure safe use, such as restricted distribution methods, patient registries and other risk minimization tools. In addition, if the FDA, EMA or foreign regulatory authorities approve our product candidates, the manufacturing processes, labelling, packaging, distribution, adverse event reporting, storage, advertising, promotion, import, export and recordkeeping for our product candidates will be subject to extensive and ongoing regulatory requirements. These requirements include submissions of safety and other post-marketing information and reports, registration, as well as ongoing compliance with cGMPs and good clinical practices (GCP) for any clinical trials that we conduct post-approval.
In addition, manufacturers of drug products and their facilities are subject to continual review and periodic, unannounced inspections by the FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities for compliance with cGMP regulations and standards. The PREVENT Pandemics Act, which was enacted in December 2022, clarifies that foreign drug manufacturing establishments are subject to registration and listing requirements even if a drug or biologic undergoes further manufacture, preparation, propagation, compounding, or processing at a separate establishment outside the U.S. prior to being imported or offered for import into the U.S. If we or a regulatory authority discover previously unknown problems with a product, such as adverse events of unanticipated severity or frequency, or problems with the facilities where the product is manufactured, a regulatory authority may impose restrictions on that product, the manufacturing facility or us, including requiring recall or withdrawal of the product from the market or suspension of manufacturing. In addition, failure to comply with FDA, EMA and other comparable foreign regulatory requirements may subject our company to administrative or judicially imposed sanctions, including:
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delays in or the rejection of product approvals;
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restrictions on our ability to conduct clinical trials, including full or partial clinical holds on ongoing or planned trials;
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restrictions on the products, manufacturers or manufacturing process;
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warning or untitled letters;
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civil and criminal penalties;
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injunctions;
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suspension or withdrawal of regulatory approvals;
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product seizures, detentions or import bans;
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voluntary or mandatory product recalls and publicity requirements;
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total or partial suspension of production;
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imposition of restrictions on operations, including costly new manufacturing requirements;
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revisions to the labelling, including limitation on approved uses or the addition of additional warnings, contraindications or other safety information, including boxed warnings;
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imposition of a REMS, which may include distribution or use restrictions; and
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requirements to conduct additional post-market clinical trials to assess the safety of the product.
Finally, our ability to develop and market new drug products may be impacted by ongoing litigation challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone. Specifically, on April 7, 2023, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas stayed the approval by the FDA of mifepristone, a drug product which was originally approved in 2000 and whose distribution is governed by various conditions adopted under a REMS. In reaching that decision, the district court made a number of findings that may negatively impact the
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development, approval and distribution of drug products in the U.S. Among other determinations, the district court held that plaintiffs were likely to prevail in their claim that the FDA had acted arbitrarily and capriciously in approving mifepristone without sufficiently considering evidence bearing on whether the drug was safe to use under the conditions identified in its labeling. Further, the district court read the standing requirements governing litigation in federal court as permitting a plaintiff to bring a lawsuit against the FDA in connection with its decision to approve an NDA or establish requirements under a REMS based on a showing that the plaintiff or its members would be harmed to the extent that FDA’s drug approval decision effectively compelled the plaintiffs to provide care for patients suffering adverse events caused by a given drug.
On April 12, 2023, the district court decision was stayed, in part, by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Thereafter, on April 21, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court entered a stay of the district court’s decision, in its entirety, pending disposition of the appeal of the district court decision in the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit and the disposition of any petition for a writ of certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit held oral argument in the case on May 17, 2023 and, on August 16, 2023, issued its decision. The Court of Appeals declined to order the removal of mifepristone from the market, finding that a challenge to the FDA’s initial approval in 2000 is barred by the statute of limitations, but the Court of Appeals did hold that the plaintiffs were likely to prevail in their claim that changes allowing for expanded access of mifepristone that the FDA authorized in 2016 and 2021 were arbitrary and capricious. On September 8, 2023, the Department of Justice and a manufacturer of mifepristone filed petitions for a writ of certiorari, asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review the Court of Appeals decision. On December 13, 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court granted these petitions for writ of certiorari for the Court of Appeals decision
The FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities’ policies may change and additional government regulations may be enacted that could prevent, limit or delay regulatory approval of our product candidates. We cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative action, either in the U.S. or abroad. If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may lose any marketing approval that we may have obtained and we may not achieve or sustain profitability.
The FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities actively enforce the laws and regulations prohibiting the promotion of off-label uses.
If any of our product candidates are approved and we are found to have improperly promoted off-label uses of those products, we may become subject to significant liability. The FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities strictly regulate the promotional claims that may be made about prescription products, such as our product candidates, if approved. In particular, a product may not be promoted in the U.S. for uses that are not approved by the FDA as reflected in the product’s approved labelling, or in other jurisdictions for uses that differ from the labelling or uses approved by the applicable regulatory authorities. While physicians may prescribe products for off-label uses, the FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities actively enforce laws and regulations that prohibit the promotion of off-label uses by companies, including promotional communications made by companies’ sales force with respect to off-label uses that are not consistent with the approved labelling, and a company that is found to have improperly promoted off-label uses may be subject to significant civil, criminal and administrative penalties.
Notwithstanding the regulatory restrictions on off-label promotion, the FDA and other regulatory authorities allow companies to engage in truthful, non-misleading, and non-promotional scientific communications concerning their products in certain circumstances. For example, in October 2023, the FDA published draft guidance outlining the agency’s non-binding policies governing the distribution of scientific information on unapproved uses to healthcare providers. This draft guidance calls for such communications to be truthful, non-misleading, factual, and unbiased and include all information necessary for healthcare providers to interpret the strengths, weaknesses, validity and utility of the information about the unapproved use. In addition, under recent guidance from the FDA and the PIE Act, signed into law as part of the CCA, companies may also promote information that is consistent with the prescribing information and proactively speak to formulary committee members of payors regarding data for an unapproved drug or unapproved uses of an approved drug. We may engage in these discussions and communicate with healthcare providers, payors and other constituencies in compliance with all applicable laws, regulatory guidance and industry best practices. We will need to carefully navigate the FDA’s various regulations, guidance and policies, along with recently enacted legislation, to ensure compliance with restrictions governing promotion of our products.
If we are found to have promoted such off-label uses, we may become subject to significant liability. The U.S. federal government has levied large civil and criminal fines against companies for alleged improper promotion of off-label use and has enjoined several companies from engaging in off-label promotion. The FDA has also requested that companies enter into consent decrees or permanent injunctions under which specified promotional conduct is changed or curtailed. If we cannot successfully manage the promotion of our product candidates, if approved, we could become subject to significant liability, which would materially adversely affect our business and financial condition.
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If we are required by the FDA, EMA or comparable regulatory authority to obtain clearance or approval of a companion diagnostic test in connection with approval of any of our product candidates or a group of therapeutic products, and we do not obtain or we face delays in obtaining clearance or approval of a diagnostic test, we may not be able to commercialize the product candidate and our ability to generate revenue may be materially impaired.
If we are required by the FDA, EMA or a comparable regulatory authority to obtain clearance or approval of a companion diagnostic test in connection with approval of any of our product candidates, such companion diagnostic test would be used during our more advanced phase clinical trials as well as in connection with the commercialization of our product candidates. To be successful in developing and commercializing product candidates in combination with these companion diagnostics, we or our collaborators will need to address a number of scientific, technical, regulatory and logistical challenges. According to FDA guidance, if the FDA determines that a companion diagnostic device is essential to ensuring the safe and effective use of a novel therapeutic product or new indication, the FDA generally will not approve the therapeutic product or new therapeutic product indication if the companion diagnostic is not also approved or cleared. In certain circumstances (for example, when a therapeutic product is intended to treat a serious or life-threatening condition for which no satisfactory available therapy exists or when the labelling of an approved product needs to be revised to address a serious safety issue), however, the FDA may approve a therapeutic product without the prior or contemporaneous marketing authorization of a companion diagnostic. In this case, approval of a companion diagnostic may be a post-marketing requirement or commitment.
Co-development of companion diagnostics and therapeutic products is critical to the advancement of precision medicine. Whether initiated at the outset of development or at a later point, co-development should generally be conducted in a way that will facilitate obtaining contemporaneous marketing authorizations for the therapeutic product and the associated companion diagnostic. If a companion diagnostic is required to identify patients who are most likely to benefit from receiving the product, to be at increased risk for serious adverse events as a result of treatment with a particular therapeutic product, or to monitor response to treatment with a particular therapeutic product for the purpose of adjusting treatment to achieve improved safety or effectiveness, then the FDA has required marketing approval of all companion diagnostic tests essential for the safe and effective use of a therapeutic product for cancer therapies. Various foreign regulatory authorities also regulate in vitro companion diagnostics as medical devices and, under those regulatory frameworks, will likely require the conduct of clinical trials to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of any future diagnostics we may develop, which we expect will require separate regulatory clearance or approval prior to commercialization in those countries.
The approval of a companion diagnostic as part of the therapeutic product’s labeling limits the use of the therapeutic product to only those patients who express the specific genomic alteration or mutation alteration that the companion diagnostic was developed to detect. If the FDA, EMA or a comparable regulatory authority requires clearance or approval of a companion diagnostic for any of our product candidates, whether before, concurrently with approval, or post-approval of the product candidate, we, and/or future collaborators, may encounter difficulties in developing and obtaining clearance or approval for these companion diagnostics. The process of obtaining or creating such diagnostic is time consuming and costly. The FDA previously has required in vitro companion diagnostics intended to select the patients who will respond to a product candidate to obtain PMA, simultaneously with approval of the therapeutic candidate. The PMA process, including the gathering of preclinical and clinical data and the submission and review by the FDA, can take several years or longer. It involves a rigorous pre-market review during which the sponsor must prepare and provide FDA with reasonable assurance of the device’s safety and effectiveness and information about the device and its components regarding, among other things, device design, manufacturing, and labeling. After a device is placed on the market, it remains subject to significant regulatory requirements, including requirements governing development, testing, manufacturing, distribution, marketing, promotion, labeling, import, export, record-keeping, and adverse event reporting.
Any delay or failure by us or third-party collaborators to develop or obtain regulatory clearance or approval of a companion diagnostic could delay or prevent approval or continued marketing of our related product candidates. Further, in April 2020, the FDA issued new guidance on developing and labeling companion diagnostics for a specific group of oncology therapeutic products, including recommendations to support a broader labeling claim rather than individual therapeutic products. We will continue to evaluate the impact of this guidance on our companion diagnostic development and strategy. This guidance and future issuances from the FDA, EMA and other regulatory authorities may impact our development of a companion diagnostic for our product candidates and could result in delays in regulatory clearance or approval or a change in the determination for whether or not a companion diagnostic is still required for our product candidates. We may be required to conduct additional studies to support a broader claim or more narrowed claim for a subset population. Also, to the extent other approved diagnostics are able to broaden their labeling claims to include any of our future approved product candidates covered indications, we may no longer need to continue our companion diagnostic development plans or we may need to alter those companion diagnostic development strategies, which could adversely impact our ability to generate revenue from the sale of our companion diagnostic test.
Additionally, we may rely on third parties for the design, development and manufacture of companion diagnostic tests for our product candidates. If we enter into such collaborative agreements, we will be dependent on the sustained cooperation and effort of our future collaborators in developing and obtaining clearance or approval for these companion diagnostics. It may be necessary to resolve issues such as selectivity/specificity, analytical validation, reproducibility, or clinical validation of companion diagnostics during the development and regulatory clearance or approval processes. Moreover, even if data from preclinical studies and early clinical trials
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appear to support development of a companion diagnostic for a product candidate, data generated in later clinical trials may fail to support the analytical and clinical validation of the companion diagnostic. We and our future collaborators may encounter difficulties in developing, obtaining regulatory clearance or approval for, manufacturing and commercializing companion diagnostics similar to those we face with respect to our product candidates themselves, including issues with achieving regulatory clearance or approval, production of sufficient quantities at commercial scale and with appropriate quality standards, and in gaining market acceptance. If we are unable to successfully develop companion diagnostics for our product candidates, or experience delays in doing so, the development of our product candidates may be adversely affected, our product candidates may not obtain marketing approval, and we may not realize the full commercial potential of any of our product candidates that obtain marketing approval. As a result, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially harmed. In addition, a diagnostic company with whom we contract may decide to discontinue selling or manufacturing the companion diagnostic test that we anticipate using in connection with development and commercialization of product candidates or our relationship with such diagnostic company may otherwise terminate. We may not be able to enter into arrangements with another diagnostic company to obtain supplies of an alternative diagnostic test for use in connection with the development and commercialization of our product candidates or do so on commercially reasonable terms, which could adversely affect and/or delay the co-development or commercialization of our companion diagnostic and therapeutic product candidates.
Where appropriate, we plan to pursue approval from the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities through the use of accelerated registration pathways. If we are unable to obtain such approval, we may be required to conduct additional preclinical studies or clinical trials beyond those that we contemplate, which could increase the expense of obtaining, and delay the receipt of, necessary marketing approvals. Even if we receive accelerated approval from the FDA, EMA or comparable regulatory authorities, if our confirmatory trials do not verify clinical benefit, or if we do not comply with rigorous post-marketing requirements, the FDA, EMA or such other regulatory authorities may seek to withdraw accelerated approval.
Where appropriate, we plan to pursue accelerated development strategies in areas of medical need. We may seek an accelerated approval pathway for one or more of our product candidates from the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Under the accelerated approval provisions in the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, and the FDA’s implementing regulations, the FDA may grant accelerated approval to a product candidate designed to treat a serious or life-threatening condition that provides meaningful therapeutic benefit over available therapies upon a determination that the product candidate has an effect on a surrogate endpoint or intermediate clinical endpoint that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. The FDA considers a clinical benefit to be a positive therapeutic effect that is clinically meaningful in the context of a given disease, such as irreversible morbidity or mortality. For the purposes of accelerated approval, a surrogate endpoint is a marker, such as a laboratory measurement, radiographic image, physical sign, or other measure that is thought to predict clinical benefit, but is not itself a measure of clinical benefit. An intermediate clinical endpoint is a clinical endpoint that can be measured earlier than an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality that is reasonably likely to predict an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality or other clinical benefit. The accelerated approval pathway may be used in cases in which the advantage of a new drug over available therapy may not be a direct therapeutic advantage, but is a clinically important improvement from a patient and public health perspective. If granted, accelerated approval is usually contingent on the sponsor’s agreement to conduct, in a diligent manner, additional post-approval confirmatory studies to verify and describe the drug’s clinical benefit. If such post-approval studies fail to confirm the drug’s clinical benefit, the FDA may withdraw its approval of the drug.
With passage of FDORA in December 2022, Congress modified certain provisions governing accelerated approval of drug and biologic products. Specifically, the new legislation authorized the FDA to require a sponsor to have its confirmatory clinical trial underway before accelerated approval is awarded, require a sponsor of a product granted accelerated approval to submit progress reports on its post-approval studies to the FDA every six months (until the study is completed), and use expedited procedures to withdraw accelerated approval of an NDA or BLA after the confirmatory trial fails to verify the product’s clinical benefit. Further, FDORA requires the FDA to publish on its website “the rationale for why a post-approval study is not appropriate or necessary” whenever it decides not to require such a study upon granting accelerated approval.
More recently, in March 2023, the FDA issued draft guidance that outlines its current thinking and approach to accelerated approval. The FDA indicated that the accelerated approval pathway is commonly used for approval of oncology drugs due to the serious and life-threatening nature of cancer. Although single-arm trials have been commonly used to support accelerated approval, a randomized controlled trial is the preferred approach as it provides a more robust efficacy and safety assessment and allows for direct comparisons to an available therapy. While a randomized controlled trial is the preferred approach, the guidance states that there can be circumstances wherein a single-arm trial is appropriate in the development of a drug for accelerated approval. To that end, the FDA outlined considerations for designing, conducting, and analyzing data for trials intended to support accelerated approvals of oncology therapeutics. While this guidance is currently only in draft form and will not be legally binding even when finalized, we will need to consider the FDA’s guidance if we seek accelerated approval for any of our products in the future and work with the FDA on this approach.
In the EU, a “conditional” marketing authorization may be granted in cases where all the required safety and efficacy data are not yet available. A conditional marketing authorization is subject to conditions to be fulfilled for generating missing data or ensuring increased safety measures. A conditional marketing authorization is valid for one year and has to be renewed annually until fulfillment
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of all relevant conditions. Once the applicable pending studies are provided, a conditional marketing authorization can become a “standard” marketing authorization. However, if the conditions are not fulfilled within the timeframe set by the EMA, the marketing authorization will cease to be renewed.
Prior to seeking accelerated approval, we will seek feedback from the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities and will otherwise evaluate our ability to seek and receive such accelerated approval. There can be no assurance that after our evaluation of the feedback and other factors we will decide to pursue or submit an NDA for accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval. Similarly, there can be no assurance that after subsequent feedback from the FDA, EMA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities, we will continue to pursue or apply for accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval, even if we initially decide to do so. Furthermore, if we decide to submit an application for accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval, there can be no assurance that such submission or application will be accepted or that any expedited development, review or approval will be granted on a timely basis, or at all. The FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities could also require us to conduct further studies prior to considering our application or granting approval of any type. A failure to obtain accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval for our product candidate would result in a longer time period to commercialization of such product candidate, could increase the cost of development of such product candidate and could harm our competitive position in the marketplace.
We may seek certain designations for our product candidates, including Breakthrough Therapy, Fast Track and Priority Review in the U.S., and PRIME (priority medicines) in the EU, but we might not receive such designations, and even if we do, such designations may not lead to a faster development or regulatory review or approval process.
NVL-520 has received FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation for the treatment of patients with ROS1-positive NSCLC who have previously been treated with two or more prior ROS1 TKIs. We may seek certain designations for one or more of our other product candidates or other designations for NVL-520 that could expedite review and approval by the FDA. A Breakthrough Therapy product is defined as a product that is intended, alone or in combination with one or more other products, to treat a serious condition, and preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the product may demonstrate substantial improvement over existing therapies on one or more clinically significant endpoints, such as substantial treatment effects observed early in clinical development. For products that have been designated as Breakthrough Therapies, early and frequent interaction and communication between the FDA and the sponsor of the trial can help to identify the most efficient path for clinical development. Sponsors may also have greater interactions with the FDA and the FDA may initiate review of sections of the NDA of a product candidate with Breakthrough Therapy designation before the application is complete. This rolling review may be available if the FDA determines, after preliminary evaluation of data submitted by the sponsor, that a product with Breakthrough Therapy designation may be effective.
We may also seek Fast Track designation for one or more of our product candidates. The FDA may designate a product for Fast Track review if it is intended, whether alone or in combination with one or more other products, for the treatment of a serious or life-threatening disease or condition, and it demonstrates the potential to address unmet medical needs for such a disease or condition. Like with Breakthrough Therapy designation, sponsors with Fast Track products may have greater FDA interactions and the FDA may initiate review of sections of a Fast Track product’s NDA before the application is complete if it determines, after its preliminary data evaluation, that the product may be effective.
We may also seek a priority review designation for one or more of our product candidates. If the FDA determines that a product candidate intended to treat a serious condition and, if approved, offers a significant improvement in safety or effectiveness, the FDA may designate the product candidate for priority review. A priority review designation shortens the goal for the FDA to review an application within six months, rather than the standard review period of ten months.
These designations require a sponsor to submit an application for review and approval by the FDA. Accordingly, even if we believe that one of our product candidates meets the criteria for these designations, the FDA may disagree and instead determine not to make such designation. Further, even if we receive a designation, the receipt of such designation for a product candidate may not result in a faster development or regulatory review or approval process compared to products considered for approval under conventional FDA procedures and does not assure ultimate approval by the FDA. In addition, even if our product candidates qualify for these designations, the FDA may later decide that the product candidates no longer meet the conditions for qualification or decide that the time period for FDA review or approval will not be shortened.
In the EU, we may seek PRIME for some of our product candidates in the future. PRIME is a voluntary program launched by the EMA that is aimed at enhancing the scientific and regulatory support for the development and accelerated assessment of new product candidates that target an unmet medical need. PRIME is aimed to offer early and proactive support to sponsors to optimize the generation of robust data on the product’s benefits and risks and enable accelerated regulatory assessment of new marketing applications. To be eligible for PRIME, a product candidate must meet the eligibility criteria in respect to its potential to offer a major therapeutic advantage over existing treatments, or benefit patients who do not have any treatment options. The benefits of PRIME include the appointment of a CHMP rapporteur to provide continued support and help to build knowledge ahead of a MAA, early dialogue and scientific advice at key development milestones, and the potential to qualify products for accelerated review, meaning reduction in the review time for an opinion on approvability to be issued earlier in the application process. PRIME enables an applicant to request parallel EMA scientific advice and health technology assessment advice to facilitate timely market access. We
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may apply for PRIME and it may not be granted. Even if we receive PRIME designation for any of our product candidates, the designation may not result in a materially faster development process, review or approval compared to conventional EMA procedures. Further, obtaining PRIME designation does not assure or increase the likelihood of EMA’s grant of a marketing authorization.
We may not be able to obtain orphan drug designation or obtain or maintain orphan drug exclusivity for our product candidates and, even if we do, that exclusivity may not prevent the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities, from approving competing products.
Regulatory authorities in some jurisdictions, including the U.S. and the EU, may designate drugs for relatively small patient populations as orphan drugs. Under the Orphan Drug Act, the FDA may designate a product candidate as an orphan drug if it is a drug intended to treat a rare disease or condition, which is generally defined as a patient population of fewer than 200,000 individuals annually in the U.S., or a patient population greater than 200,000 in the U.S. where there is no reasonable expectation that the cost of researching and developing the drug will be recovered from sales in the U.S. Our target indications may include diseases with large patient populations or may include orphan indications. NVL-520 has received orphan drug designation for ROS1-positive NSCLC. NVL-655 has received orphan drug designation for ALK-positive NSCLC. There can be no assurances that we will be able to obtain orphan designation for our other current product candidates or candidates we may discover and develop in the future.
In the U.S., orphan drug designation entitles a party to financial incentives such as opportunities for grant funding towards clinical trial costs, tax advantages and user-fee waivers. In addition, if a product candidate that has orphan drug designation subsequently receives the first FDA approval for the disease for which it has such designation, the product candidate is entitled to orphan drug exclusivity. Orphan drug exclusivity in the U.S. provides that the FDA may not approve any other applications, including a full NDA, to market the same drug for the same indication for seven years, except in limited circumstances. The applicable exclusivity period is 10 years in Europe. The European exclusivity period can be reduced to six years if a drug no longer meets the criteria for orphan drug designation or if the drug is sufficiently profitable so that market exclusivity is no longer justified.
Even if we obtain orphan drug designation for a product candidate, we may not be able to obtain or maintain orphan drug exclusivity for that product candidate. We may not be the first to obtain marketing approval of any product candidate for which we have obtained orphan drug designation for the orphan-designated indication due to the uncertainties associated with developing pharmaceutical products. In addition, exclusive marketing rights in the U.S. may be limited if we seek approval for an indication broader than the orphan-designated indication or may be lost if the FDA later determines that the request for designation was materially defective or if we are unable to ensure that we will be able to manufacture sufficient quantities of the product to meet the needs of patients with the rare disease or condition. Further, even if we obtain orphan drug exclusivity for a product, that exclusivity may not effectively protect the product from competition because different drugs with different active moieties may be approved for the same condition. Even after an orphan drug is approved, the FDA can subsequently approve the same drug with the same active moiety for the same condition if the FDA concludes that the later drug is clinically superior in that it is shown to be safer, more effective or makes a major contribution to patient care or the manufacturer of the product with orphan exclusivity is unable to maintain sufficient product quantity. Orphan drug designation neither shortens the development time or regulatory review time of a drug nor gives the product candidate any advantage in the regulatory review or approval process or entitles the product candidate to Priority Review.
The FDA and Congress may further reevaluate the Orphan Drug Act and its regulations and policies. This may be particularly true in light of a decision from the Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in September 2021 finding that, for the purpose of determining the scope of exclusivity, the term “same disease or condition” means the designated “rare disease or condition” and could not be interpreted by the FDA to mean the “indication or use.” Thus, the court concluded, orphan drug exclusivity applies to the entire designated disease or condition rather than the “indication or use.” Although there have been legislative proposals to overrule this decision, they have not been enacted into law. On January 23, 2023, the FDA announced that, in matters beyond the scope of that court’s order, the FDA will continue to apply its existing regulations tying orphan-drug exclusivity to the uses or indications for which the orphan drug was approved. We do not know if, when, or how the FDA or Congress may change the orphan drug regulations and policies in the future, and it is uncertain how any changes might affect our business. Depending on what changes the FDA may make to its orphan drug regulations and policies, our business could be adversely impacted.
Current and future legislation may increase the difficulty and cost for us to obtain reimbursement for our product candidates.
In the U.S. and some foreign jurisdictions, there have been and continue to be a number of legislative and regulatory changes and proposed changes regarding the healthcare system that could, among other things, prevent or delay marketing approval of our product candidates, restrict or regulate post-approval activities and affect our ability to profitably sell any products for which we obtain marketing approval. We expect that current laws, as well as other healthcare reform measures that may be adopted in the future, may result in more rigorous coverage criteria and in additional downward pressure on the price that we may receive for any approved products. If reimbursement of our products is unavailable or limited in scope, our business could be materially harmed.
In March 2010, President Obama signed into law the PPACA. Since enactment of the PPACA, there have been and continue to be, numerous legal challenges and Congressional actions to repeal and replace provisions of the law. For example, with enactment of the Tax Act in 2017, Congress repealed the “individual mandate.” The repeal of this provision, which requires most Americans to carry a minimal level of health insurance, became effective in 2019. On June 17, 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed the most recent
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judicial challenge to the PPACA brought by several states without specifically ruling on the constitutionality of the PPACA. Litigation and legislation over the PPACA are likely to continue, with unpredictable and uncertain results.
Other legislative changes have been adopted since the PPACA was enacted, including aggregate reductions to Medicare payments to providers of up to 2% per fiscal year, which went into effect in April 2013 and will remain in effect through 2031. Under current legislation, the actual reductions in Medicare payments may vary up to 4%. The CAA, which was signed into law by President Biden in December 2022, made several changes to sequestration of the Medicare program. Section 1001 of the CAA delays the 4% Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 (PAYGO) sequester for two years, through the end of calendar year 2024. Triggered by the enactment of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, the 4% cut to the Medicare program would have taken effect in January 2023. The CAA’s health care offset title includes Section 4163, which extends the 2% Budget Control Act of 2011 Medicare sequester for six months into fiscal year 2032 and lowers the payment reduction percentages in fiscal years 2030 and 2031.
The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 reduced Medicare payments to several providers and increased the statute of limitations period for the government to recover overpayments to providers from three to five years. Further, with passage of the IRA in August 2022, Congress authorized Medicare beginning in 2026 to negotiate lower prices for certain costly single-source drug and biologic products that do not have competing generics or biosimilars. This provision is limited in terms of the number of pharmaceuticals whose prices can be negotiated in any given year and it only applies to drug products that have been approved for at least 9 years and biologics that have been licensed for 13 years. Drugs and biologics that have been approved for a single rare disease or condition are categorically excluded from price negotiation. In addition, the new legislation provides that if pharmaceutical companies raise prices in Medicare faster than the rate of inflation, they must pay rebates back to the government for the difference. The IRA also caps Medicare out-of-pocket drug costs at an estimated $4,000 a year in 2024 and, thereafter beginning in 2025, at $2,000 a year.
These laws and other healthcare reform measures may result in additional reductions in Medicare and other healthcare funding and otherwise affect the reimbursement we may obtain for any of our product candidates for which we may obtain regulatory approval or the frequency with which any such product is prescribed or used. We expect that the PPACA, as well as other healthcare reform measures that may be adopted in the future, may result in more rigorous coverage criteria. Any reduction in reimbursement from Medicare or other government programs may result in a similar reduction in coverage and payments from private payors. Accordingly, the implementation of cost containment measures or other healthcare reforms may prevent us from being able to generate revenue, attain profitability or commercialize our product candidates.
The prices of prescription pharmaceuticals in the U.S. and foreign jurisdictions are the subject of considerable legislative and executive actions and could impact the prices we obtain for our products, if and when licensed for marketing.
The prices of prescription pharmaceuticals have been the subject of considerable discussion in the U.S. There have been several recent U.S. Congressional inquiries, as well as proposed and enacted state and federal legislation designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to pharmaceutical pricing, review the relationship between pricing and manufacturer patient programs, and reduce the costs of pharmaceuticals under Medicare and Medicaid. In 2020, President Trump issued several executive orders intended to lower the costs of prescription products, and certain provisions in these orders have been incorporated into regulations. These regulations include an interim final rule implementing a most favored nation model for prices that would tie Medicare Part B payments for certain physician-administered pharmaceuticals to the lowest price paid in other economically advanced countries, effective January 1, 2021. That rule, however, has been subject to a nationwide preliminary injunction and, on December 29, 2021, the CMS issued a final rule to rescind it. With issuance of this rule, CMS stated that it will explore all options to incorporate value into payments for Medicare Part B pharmaceuticals and improve beneficiaries' access to evidence-based care.
In addition, in October 2020, HHS and the FDA published a final rule allowing states and other entities to develop a SIP to import certain prescription drugs from Canada into the U.S. That regulation was challenged in a lawsuit by the PhRMA but the case was dismissed by a federal district court in February 2023 after the court found that PhRMA did not have standing to sue HHS. Nine states (Colorado, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Wisconsin) have passed laws allowing for the importation of drugs from Canada. Certain of these states have submitted SIP proposals and are awaiting FDA approval. On January 5, 2023, the FDA approved Florida’s plan for Canadian drug importation.
The final rule would also eliminate the current safe harbor for Medicare drug rebates and create new safe harbors for beneficiary point-of-sale discounts and pharmacy benefit manager service fees. It originally was set to go into effect on January 1, 2022, but has been delayed by Congress to January 1, 2032.
In September 2021, acting pursuant to an executive order signed by President Biden, HHS released its plan to reduce pharmaceutical prices. The key features of that plan are to: (a) make pharmaceutical prices more affordable and equitable for all consumers and throughout the health care system by supporting pharmaceutical price negotiations with manufacturers; (b) improve and promote competition throughout the prescription pharmaceutical industry by supporting market changes that strengthen supply chains, promote biosimilars and generic drugs, and increase transparency; and (c) foster scientific innovation to promote better healthcare and improve health by supporting public and private research and making sure that market incentives promote discovery of valuable and accessible new treatments.
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