ITEM 7.MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation should be read in conjunction with Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." Amounts (except per share amounts) are presented in thousands, unless otherwise noted.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
It is important to note that our actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Please refer to "Forward-Looking Information" and Part I, Item 1A, "Risk Factors" of this report for information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Originally founded in 1946 as United Fire & Casualty Company, United Fire Group, Inc. and its consolidated insurance company subsidiaries provide insurance protection for individuals and businesses through several regional companies. Our property and casualty insurance company subsidiaries are licensed in 50 states plus the District of Columbia and are represented by approximately 1,000 independent agencies.
Reportable Segments
Our property and casualty insurance business operates and reports as one business segment. For more information, refer to Part I, Item 1 "Property and Casualty Insurance Business" under "Products and Operations".
Products and Lines of Business
Our core commercial products support a wide variety of customers including small business owners and middle market businesses operating in industries such as construction, services, retail trade, financial and manufacturing, along with contract surety and commercial surety bonds offered through approximately 1,000 independent property and casualty agencies. We also provide specialty and surplus lines coverage written exclusively through wholesale brokers on an admitted and non-admitted basis.Additionally, the Company offers reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance through traditional treaty reinsurance channels. The Company assumes premium in Lloyd's of London syndicates through a Funds at Lloyd's subsidiary. The reinsurance operation supports primarily commercial lines of business but also assumes risk in professional, financial and personal lines of insurance. We also partner with MGAs to offer delegated underwriting programs providing niche products including marine specialty, professional liability and earthquake coverages.
We review and report our results using lines of business. The following table shows the principle types of property and casualty insurance policies we write and issue, and which lines of business they are reported in:
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Direct Writer Treaty Reinsurance(1) Funds at Lloyd's MGAs
Commercial Lines
Other Liability x P x
Fire and allied lines x P x
Automobile x P
Workers' compensation x P
Fidelity and surety x P
Other x x
Personal Lines
Fire and allied lines * P
Automobile *
Other *
Reinsurance Assumed NP x
* Personal lines direct business was discontinued in 2020 with only a minimal number of exposures still in force due to certain regulatory non-renewal limitations. For more information, refer to Part I, Item 1 "Property and Casualty Insurance Business" under "Products and Operations"
(1) Treaty Reinsurance is split between proportional reinsurance (P) and non-proportional reinsurance (NP)
Commercial other liability - primarily business insurance covering bodily injury and property damage including construction defect, excess and surplus lines excess casualty, and standard umbrella. Proportional assumed reinsurance on these lines and professional liability coverage managed by an MGA partner.
Commercial fire and allied lines - primarily multi-peril non-liability property coverage, inland marine. Proportional assumed reinsurance on these lines and earthquake coverage managed by an MGA partner.
Commercial automobile - physical damage to an insured's vehicle, as well as liabilities to third parties. Automobile physical damage insurance covers loss or damage to vehicles from collision, vandalism, fire, theft, flood or other causes. Automobile liability insurance covers bodily injury, damage to property resulting from automobile accidents caused by the insured, uninsured or under-insured motorists and the legal costs of defending the insured against lawsuits. Proportional reinsurance on these lines is also included.
Workers' compensation - business coverage for employees who are injured or become ill as a result of their job, including proportional assumed reinsurance for this coverage. Our workers' compensation insurance covers primarily small- to mid-sized accounts.
Fidelity and surety - contract and commercial surety bond coverage which guarantees performance and payment by our bonded principals, protects owners from failure to perform on the part of our principals, and protects material suppliers and subcontractors from nonpayment by our contractors.
Commercial other - commercial theft coverage, boiler and machinery and ocean marine business managed by an MGA partner.
Personal fire and allied lines - proportional assumed reinsurance for homeowners multi-peril coverage.
Reinsurance assumed - primarily non-proportional assumed reinsurance and Funds at Lloyd's property and casualty syndicates.
Lloyd's Syndicates
On January 1, 2021, the Company became a member of Lloyd's of London ("Lloyd's") through McIntyre Cedar Corporate Member LLP. As a member of Lloyd's, the Company is required to maintain capital at Lloyd's, referred to as Funds at Lloyd's ("FAL"), to support underwriting of property and casualty and reinsurance business by
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Syndicate 1492, Syndicate 1729, Syndicate 1969, Syndicate 1971, Syndicate 4747, Syndicate 2988, Syndicate 1699 and Syndicate 5623.
Pooling Arrangement
All of our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are members of an intercompany reinsurance pooling arrangement. The Company's pooling arrangement permits the participating companies to rely on the capacity of the entire pool's capital and surplus, rather than being limited to policy exposures of a size commensurate with each participant's own surplus level.
Geographic Concentration
For 2023, 47.0 percent of our property and casualty premiums were written in Texas, California, Iowa, Missouri, and Louisiana.
In 2023, 2022 and 2021 the direct statutory premiums written by our property and casualty insurance operations were distributed as follows:
Years Ended December 31, % of Total
MEASUREMENT OF RESULTS
We evaluate profit or loss based upon operating and investment results. Profit or loss described in the following sections of this Management's Discussion and Analysis is reported on a pre-tax basis. Our primary sources of revenue are premiums and investment income. Major categories of expenses include losses and loss settlement expenses, underwriting and other operating expenses. Management uses metrics to provide financial statement users with a better understanding of results of operations, including net premiums written and three components of the loss ratio: underlying loss ratio, impacts of catastrophes and non-catastrophe prior period reserve development.
Net premiums written is frequently used by industry analysts and other recognized reporting sources to facilitate comparisons of the performance of insurance companies. Net premiums written is the amount charged for insurance policy contracts issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management believes net premiums written is a meaningful measure for evaluating insurance company sales performance and geographical expansion efforts. Net premiums written for an insurance company consists of direct premiums written and premiums assumed, less premiums ceded. Net premiums earned is calculated on a pro-rata basis over the terms of the respective policies. Unearned premium reserves are established for the portion of premiums written applicable to the unexpired terms of the insurance policies in force. The difference between net premiums earned and net premiums written is the change in unearned premiums and the change in prepaid reinsurance premiums.
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Underlying loss ratio represents the net loss ratio less the impacts of catastrophes and non-catastrophe prior period reserve development. The underlying combined ratio represents the combined ratio less the impacts of catastrophes and non-catastrophe prior period reserve development. The Company believes that the underlying loss ratio and underlying combined ratio are meaningful measures to understand the underlying trends in the core business in the current accident year, removing the volatility of prior period impacts and catastrophes. Management believes separate discussions on catastrophe losses and prior period reserve development are important to understanding how the Company is managing catastrophe risk and in identifying developments in longer-tailed business.
Prior period reserve development is the increase (unfavorable) or decrease (favorable) in incurred loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at the valuation dates for losses which occurred in previous calendar years. This measure excludes development on catastrophe losses.
Catastrophe losses is an operational measure that utilizes the designations of the Insurance Services Office ("ISO") and is reported with losses and loss adjustment expense amounts net of reinsurance recoverables, unless specified otherwise. In addition to ISO catastrophes, we also include as catastrophes those events ("non-ISO catastrophes"), which may include U.S. or international losses, that we believe are, or will be, material to our operations, either in amount or in number of claims made. Catastrophes are not predictable and are unique in terms of timing and financial impact. While management estimates catastrophe losses as incurred, due to the inherently unique nature of catastrophe losses, the impact in a reporting period is inclusive of catastrophes that occurred in the reporting period, as well as development on catastrophes that may have occurred in prior periods. The following table shows the breakdown of ISO and non-ISO catastrophes in 2023, 2022 and 2021:
Years Ended December 31,
(1) Includes international assumed losses.
We evaluate our property catastrophe exposure by considering planned portfolio growth, market conditions, business needs, portfolio aggregation, and results of third-party vendor model output. As a result of the evaluation, we may limit our exposure in regions that are prone to naturally occurring catastrophic events through a combination of geographic diversification and restrictions on the amount and location of new business production in such regions. We regularly assess our concentration of risk exposures in natural catastrophe exposed areas and consider the impacts of climate change and the unpredictability of future trends in adjusting our geographic concentrations. We have strategies and underwriting standards to manage these exposures through individual risk selection, subject to regulatory constraints. We use third-party vendor catastrophe modeling and a risk concentration management tool to monitor and control our accumulation of potential losses in natural catastrophe exposed areas, such as the Gulf Coast and East Coast. We model several perils against our exposure profile to produce a view into portfolio aggregation and property catastrophe exposure. Our staff regularly performs portfolio analysis, creating and utilizing custom model output which is used to further expand our insights into our exposure profile. We use all of these evaluations when renewing our catastrophe reinsurance programs on an annual basis.
Our profitability is influenced by many factors, including price, competition, economic conditions, investment returns, interest rates, catastrophic events and other natural disasters, man-made disasters, state regulations, court decisions, and changes in the law. To manage these risks and uncertainties, we seek to achieve consistent profitability through strong agency relationships, exceptional customer service, fair and prompt claims handling, disciplined underwriting, superior loss control services, prudent management of our investments, appropriate matching of assets and liabilities, effective use of ceded reinsurance and effective and efficient use of technology.
We measure our cash flows and liquidity to ensure we meet our short- and long-term cash obligations. We monitor our capital adequacy to support our business.
Ceded Reinsurance
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Our reinsurance allows us to manage our risk, increase our underwriting capacity and protect us from large events. A summary of our key 2024 reinsurance program is as follows. For details on our 2021 - 2023 plans please refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 4 "Reinsurance"
Property Catastrophe Excess of Loss
Our corporate property catastrophe reinsurance program, effective January 1, 2024, is an excess of loss ("XOL") treaty. The program consists of $110 million in coverage for losses in excess of $20 million. The treaty protects from catastrophic events such as earthquakes, hail, windstorms, and fires. The treaty consists of three layers and is fully placed. It includes exclusions for communicable diseases and cyber loss. In addition, it includes a terrorism exclusion. Each layer can be reinstated once to its full amount at the same premium.The business written through our delegated underwriting arrangement for earthquake and flood business is no longer subject to the corporate treaty. That exposure is now completely, and separately, reinsured and detailed below.
Layer Limit Retention Placement
Property & Casualty Core XOL Treaty
Our property and casualty working program, which we refer to as the core treaty, includes a multi-line layer which applies in excess of our retention and annual aggregate deductible, as well as property-only and casualty-only towers above the multi-line exhaustion point. Our core treaty begins January 1, 2024 and each layer is fully placed. Each layer includes provisions for extra-contractual and excess of policy limit losses. The multi-line treaty includes a provision that limits the per occurrence maximum limit to $24 million. Reinstatement is free and unlimited, upon erosion of the deductible. This treaty provides coverage to the majority of the commercial property and casualty business that we write. The multi-line treaty combined with the property per risk provide for a combined limit of $22 million coverage excess of the $3 million retention. If we have a property risk that requires limits in excess of our reinsured limit, facultative reinsurance is generally obtained.
Layer Limit Retention Placement
Surety Per Principal XOL Treaty
Our surety treaty begins on January 1, 2024 and is an excess of loss treaty. The program consists of $45 million in coverage for losses in excess of $5 million per principal. The first layer includes three reinstatements, while the second and third include one. Losses are considered discovered to the treaty year in accordance with the contract terms and conditions.
Layer Limit Retention Placement
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Earthquake and Flood XOL Treaty
We delegate underwriting authority to write a specific portfolio of flood and earthquake difference in conditions ("DIC") business. This arrangement began in 2019. An excess of loss treaty, effective January 1, 2024, is in place to specifically and exclusively reinsure business written through this arrangement. This program consists of $160 million for losses in excess of $10 million and is fully placed. This treaty replaces the earthquake quota share that we had previously placed in treaty years 2022 and 2023, as well as the remaining coverage that had been provided by the corporate property catastrophe XOL. Effecting the above change allowed us to reduce our retention to these events from $20 million to $10 million.
Layer Limit Retention Placement
Assumed Reinsurance
The Company offers reinsurance coverage for property and casualty insurance through traditional treaty reinsurance channels and participates in the Funds at Lloyd's syndicates. We target diversifying risks that complement our direct portfolio. The following provides more detail on the type of assumed reinsurance business we target.
•Treaty reinsurance with regional property and casualty carriers, including casualty XOL, property per risk, and property catastrophe XOL.
•Treaty reinsurance with professional reinsurers and Lloyd's syndicates.
•Mortgage reinsurance with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, private mortgage insurers and surety carriers.
•Treaty reinsurance on risks underwritten by managing general agents.
•Treaty reinsurance underwritten on our behalf through reinsurance intermediary management agreements (RIMA) that define underwriting boundaries by product, class and type.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS FOR THE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2023, 2022 AND 2021
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Years Ended December 31, % Change
Revenues
Benefits, losses and expenses
GAAP Ratios:
Additional Loss Ratios:
Catastrophes - effect on net loss ratio (4) 6.2 % 7.7 % 10.2 % (19.5) % (24.5) %
Underlying loss ratio (4) (Non-GAAP) 62.2 % 59.2 % 64.4 % 5.1 % (8.1) %
NM = not meaningful
(1) Net loss ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of losses and loss settlement expenses by net premiums earned. We use the net loss ratio as a measure of the overall underwriting profitability of the insurance business we write and to assess the adequacy of our pricing. Our net loss ratio is meaningful in evaluating our financial results as reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements.
(2) Expense ratio is calculated by dividing non-deferred underwriting expenses and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs by net premiums earned. The expense ratio measures a company's operational efficiency in producing, underwriting and administering its insurance
business.
(3) Combined ratio is a commonly used financial measure of property and casualty underwriting performance. A combined ratio below 100.0
percent generally indicates a profitable book of business. The combined ratio is the sum of the net loss ratio and the underwriting expense ratio.
(4) Underlying loss ratio is defined as the net loss ratio less impacts of catastrophes and non-catastrophe prior year reserve development.
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Net loss reported in 2023 as compared to net income in 2022 was primarily due to an increase in losses and loss settlement expenses and an increase in amortization of deferred acquisition costs. These were partially offset with an increase in net premiums earned, higher investment income and net investment gains, as compared to net investment losses for the same period in 2022.
In 2022, the decrease in net income compared to 2021 was primarily due to lower premiums earned, lower net investment income from a decrease in value of other long-term assets, and net investment losses from a decrease in the fair value of equity securities, as compared to net investment gains for the same period in 2021.
Premiums
The following table shows our premiums earned and written for 2023, 2022and2021:
% Change
NM = not meaningful
(1) Net premiums written: Net premiums written is frequently used by industry analysts and other recognized reporting sources to facilitate comparisons of the performance of insurance companies. Net premiums written are the amount charged for insurance policy contracts issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management believes net premiums written are a meaningful measure for evaluating insurance company sales performance and geographical expansion efforts. Net premiums written for an insurance company consists of direct premiums written and reinsurance assumed, less reinsurance ceded. Net premiums earned is calculated on a pro rata basis over the terms of the respective policies.
Net Premiums Written
Net premiums written comprise direct and assumed premiums written, less ceded premiums written. Direct premiums written are the total policy premiums, net of cancellations, associated with policies issued and underwritten by our property and casualty insurance business. Assumed premiums written are the total premiums associated with the insurance risk transferred to us by other insurance and reinsurance companies pursuant to reinsurance contracts. Ceded premiums written is the portion of direct premiums written that we cede to our reinsurers under our reinsurance contracts. Net premiums earned are recognized ratably over the life of a policy and differ from net premiums written, which are recognized on the effective date of the policy.
Direct Premiums Written
Direct premiums written increased $94.2 million in 2023 as compared to 2022 primarily due to growth in our core commercial lines. Direct premiums written decreased $17.8 million in 2022 as compared to 2021 due to our continued focus on improving profitability through non-renewal of under-performing accounts in our commercial automobile line of business.
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Assumed Premiums Written
Assumed premiums written increased $42.5 million in 2023 as compared to 2022 due to growth of our Funds at Lloyd's participation along with increases in our assumed book by the addition of new programs.
Assumed premiums written increased $59.8 million in 2022 as compared to 2021 due to growth of our assumed book by the addition of new programs and cedant premium growth.
Ceded Premiums Written
Direct premiums written are reduced by the ceded premiums that we pay to reinsurers. For 2023, the ratio of ceded premiums to direct written premiums increased as compared to 2022 as a result of higher reinsurance costs, in addition to an increase in our direct written premiums. Ceded premiums also increased $12.8 million in 2023 as a result of increased surety reinstatement premium due to a small number of large claims. All these contributed to ceding 54.2 percent more premiums to reinsurers in 2023 as compared to 2022. For 2022, the ratio of ceded premiums to direct written premiums is nearly the same as it was in 2021, and thus ceded premiums written are only down as a reflection of decreased direct premiums written.
Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses
Climate Change and Catastrophe Exposures
Catastrophe losses are inherent risks of the property and casualty insurance business. Catastrophic events include, without limitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, hailstorms, wildfires, high winds, winter storms and other natural disasters, along with man-made exposures to losses resulting from, without limitation, acts of war, acts of terrorism and political instability. Such events result in insured losses that can be, and may continue to be, a material factor in our results of operations and financial position, as the extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in an area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Because the level of insured losses that may occur in any one year cannot be accurately predicted, these losses contribute to fluctuations in our year-to-year results of operations and financial position. Some types of catastrophes are more likely to occur at certain times within the year than others, which adds an element of seasonality to our property and casualty insurance claims. The frequency and severity of catastrophic events are difficult to accurately predict in any year. However, some geographic locations are more susceptible to these events than others.
We control our direct insurance exposures in regions that are prone to naturally occurring catastrophic events through a combination of geographic diversification, restrictions on the amount and location of new business production in such regions, and reinsurance. We regularly assess our concentration of risk exposures in natural catastrophe exposed areas and consider the impacts of climate change and the unpredictability of future trends in adjusting our geographic concentrations in the United States. We have strategies and underwriting standards to manage these exposures through individual risk selection, subject to regulatory constraints, and through the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance coverage. We use catastrophe modeling and a risk concentration management tool to monitor and control our accumulations of potential losses in natural catastrophe exposed areas of the United States, such as the Gulf Coast and East Coast, as well as in areas of exposure in other countries where we are exposed to a portion of an insurer’s underwriting risk under our assumed reinsurance contracts.
Overall, the models indicate increased risk estimates for our exposure to hurricanes in the U.S., but the impact of the models on our book of business varies significantly among the regions that we model for hurricanes. Based on our analysis, we have implemented more targeted underwriting and rate initiatives in some regions. We intend to continue to take underwriting actions and/or purchase additional reinsurance as necessary to reduce our exposure.
Catastrophe modeling generally relies on multiple inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history, and the selection of those inputs requires a significant amount of judgment. The modeling results may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseen. Because of this, actual results may differ materially from those derived from our modeling assumptions.
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Despite our efforts to manage our catastrophe exposure, the occurrence of one or more severe natural catastrophic events in heavily populated areas could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity.
The process of estimating and establishing reserves for losses incurred from catastrophic events is inherently uncertain and the actual ultimate cost of a claim, net of reinsurance recoveries, may vary materially from the estimated amount reserved. Although we reinsure a portion of our exposure, reinsurance may prove to be inadequate if a major catastrophic event exceeds our reinsurance limits or if we experience a number of small catastrophic events that individually fall below our reinsurance retention level.
Catastrophe Losses
In 2023, our pre-tax catastrophe losses were $64.2 million, a decrease of $9.3 million compared to $73.5 million in 2022 and a decrease of $25.2 million as compared to $98.6 million in 2021. In 2023, our catastrophe losses included 61 events. Catastrophe losses in 2023 added 6.2 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is below our historical 10-year average of 7.2 percentage points.
Catastrophe Reinsurance
In 2023, the Company continued the pillared loss occurrence program in addition to the XOL ceded reinsurance program with no substantive structural changes. The catastrophe reinsurance retention level was increased from $15.0 million to $20.0 million, the pillar retention in the pillared loss occurrence program increased from $5.0 million to $6.0 million, and the first layer of the occurrence tower was placed with a co-participation.We did not experience any property catastrophe events that produced a reported loss to either program in 2022 or 2023.
We use many reinsurers, both domestic and foreign, which helps us to avoid concentrations of credit risk associated with our reinsurance. Our criteria for selecting reinsurance markets is to require capital and surplus of at least $500.0 million and an A.M. Best rating or an S&P rating of at least "A-." If a reinsurer is rated by both rating agencies, then both ratings must be at least an "A-." All of our reinsurance capacity is placed with reinsurers holding a rating of A- or better. For the small amount of reinsurance capacity we utilize that doesn't meet our criteria, markets are required to collateralize the risk.
The following table represents the primary reinsurers we utilize and their financial strength ratings as of December 31, 2023:
Name of Reinsurer A.M. Best S&P Rating
Swiss Re(2) A+ AA-
Hannover Re(1)(2) A+ AA-
Everest Re(1)(2) A+ AA-
Lloyd's(1)(2) A AA-
Arch Re(1) A+ A+
Berkely Re(1) A+ A+
Partner Re(1)(2) A+ A+
R&V Re(1)(2) NR A+
MS Amlin(1)(2) A A
Renaissance Re(1) A+ A+
SCOR(1)(2) A A+
(1)Primary reinsurers participating in the property and casualty excess of loss programs.
(2)Primary reinsurers participating in the surety excess of loss program.
Refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 4 "Reinsurance" for further discussion of our reinsurance programs.
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Terrorism Coverage
Our principal reinsurance protection is the coverage provided through the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 ("TRIPRA"), effective through December 31, 2027. TRIPRA coverage includes most direct commercial lines of business, including coverage for losses from nuclear, biological and chemical exposures if coverage was afforded by an insurer, with exclusions for commercial automobile insurance, burglary and theft insurance, surety, professional liability insurance and farm owners' multiple peril insurance. For calendar year 2024, the aggregate losses exceeding a threshold of $200.0 million industry-wide would be covered under this protection. Our TRIPRA deductible was $124.8 million for 2023 and our TRIPRA deductible is expected to be $132.6 million for 2024. Our catastrophe and non-catastrophe reinsurance programs provide limited coverage for terrorism exposure excluding nuclear, biological and chemical-related claims.
2023 Results
In 2023, our loss and loss settlement expenses were 20.7 percent higher than 2022 and our net loss ratio increased 7.4 points. The primary driver for the increase was an increase in loss and loss settlement expenses of $80.4 million in commercial lines and $48.0 million in reinsurance assumed, which will be discussed in more detail in Net Loss Ratios by Line. In 2023, catastrophe losses were $64.2 million in both our direct and assumed reinsurance business as compared to $73.5 million in 2022.
2022 Results
In 2022, our losses and loss settlement expenses were 2.3 percent lower than 2021 and our net loss ratio decreased 0.7 points. The primary driver for the decline is a reduction of loss and loss settlement expenses of $27.0 million in personal lines related to our exit of that business. This was offset by an increase in reinsurance assumed related to our growth in that business from the prior year, and a slight decrease in our commercial lines. In 2022, catastrophe losses were $73.5 million in both our direct business and assumed reinsurance business as compared to $98.6 million in 2021.
Reserve Development
For many liability lines of business, several years (more than a decade for construction defect) may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement or other disposition of the claim. As a result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition, long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretations, the legal environment, and inflation (economic and social). Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability. As a result of this complexity and inherent uncertainty, reserve estimates may change over time as new information becomes available. Reserves for these long-tail coverages represent a significant portion of our overall carried reserves.
When establishing reserves and monitoring reserve adequacy, we analyze historical data and consider the potential impact of various loss development factors and trends including historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, results of our medical bill review process and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation.
2023 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $67.8 million of adverse development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2023, which is comprised of $64.2 million on non-catastrophe losses and $3.6 million on catastrophe losses. Commercial other liability lines experienced adverse development of $52.9 million primarily in our excess and surplus lines excess casualty book along with some adverse development in standard umbrella and construction defect due to increasing severity pressures. The pressure on these longer tailed lines, especially in accident years 2016-2019, related to
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social and economic inflation, continued in 2023 and prompted a re-evaluation of trend assumptions for more recent accident years. The commercial automobile line of business also experienced adverse development of $9.0 million related to increasing severity largely in post-COVID-19 accident years. Commercial fire and allied lines experienced adverse development of $4.4 million largely due to development on both catastrophe and non-catastrophe losses, primarily from accident year 2022. The assumed reinsurance line of business contributed an additional $3.5 million of adverse development largely driven by catastrophe losses.
2022 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $12.9 million of adverse development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2022. Most of the adverse development was in commercial other liability with $47.8 million and commercial fire and allied with $24.8 million adverse development. This was offset partially by favorable development on commercial automobile which contributed $56.7 million. The unfavorable development in commercial other liability and commercial fire and allied was due to paid loss and loss adjustment expense ("LAE") which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss and LAE. The favorable development for commercial automobile was from both loss and LAE where reductions of reserves for unpaid liabilities were more than sufficient to offset actual paid loss and paid LAE. Reductions in reserves for IBNR claims also contributed favorable development.
2021 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $48.9 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2021. Two lines contributed the majority of favorable development with the largest contribution coming from commercial automobile which had $43.3 million favorable development, followed by workers' compensation which had $10.9 million favorable development. All other individual lines, with the exception of commercial other liability, experienced favorable development. Commercial other liability experienced $20.7 million of unfavorable development. The favorable development for commercial automobile was from both loss and LAE where reductions of reserves for unpaid liabilities were more than sufficient to offset actual paid loss and paid LAE. The favorable development for workers' compensation was from both loss and LAE and for loss the reductions in reserves for reported claims were more than sufficient to offset paid loss; reductions in reserves for IBNR claims also contributed favorable development in addition to LAE where reductions in reserves were more than sufficient to offset payments. Commercial other liability experienced unfavorable development due to paid loss which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss; LAE developed favorably and partially offset the unfavorable loss development.
Reserve development amounts can vary significantly from year-to-year depending on a number of factors (both internal and external).
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Net Loss Ratios by Line
The following table depicts our net loss ratios for 2023, 2022 and 2021:
Commercial lines
Personal lines
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Commercial Lines
The net loss ratio in our commercial lines of business, excluding assumed reinsurance, was 76.5 percent in 2023 compared to 69.8 percent in 2022 and 67.0 percent in 2021. The net loss ratio in 2023 increased primarily due to prior accident year reserve strengthening discussed in the Reserve Development section. The net loss dollars for 2022 compared to 2021 are lower by 0.8 percent, but the net loss ratio increased due to the contraction of premiums in 2022.
Other Liability
We write numerous types of risk that are exposed to liability losses in our direct and assumed books of business. This includes, but is not limited to, bodily injury, property damage, standard umbrella, excess liability, and product liability (including construction defect) loss and loss adjustment expenses.
The net loss ratio deteriorated 1.1 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022. Both 2022 and 2023 results were the result of deeper analytical insights and emerging claim experience increasing our view of potential exposure in excess liability coverages as well as construction defect. Social and economic inflation pressures continue to increase severity in these lines, primarily in accident years 2016-2019. Additional detail on construction defect exposure is discussed in the Critical Accounting Policies section.
Commercial Fire and Allied Lines
The net loss ratio improved 13.0 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022. The improvement in 2023 is related to lower catastrophe losses and improvement in severity in both current and prior accident years.
Commercial Automobile
The net loss ratio deteriorated 29.8 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022 as the 2022 results reflected significant reserve releases. The 2023 results saw an increase in prior accident year reserves driven by severity trends in post-COVID-19 accident years offset by improved frequency and continued rate achievement in the current accident year.
Workers' Compensation
The net loss ratio deteriorated 13.4 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022. This line deteriorated primarily due to less favorable prior accident year reserve releases in 2023 as compared to 2022. There was also a slight uptick in severity compared to a favorable result for accident year 2022.
Fidelity and Surety
When surety losses occur, our loss is determined by estimating the cost to complete the remaining work and to pay the contractor's unpaid bills, offset by contract funds due to the contractor, reinsurance, and the value of any collateral to which we may have access.
The net loss ratio deteriorated 37.9 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022 due to a few large losses in 2023 and associated reinstatement premiums. The surety market has experienced pressure from construction industry factors, such as increased material costs and limited contractor availability. Due to the nature of this business, results can be volatile, and it is not uncommon to experience occasional outlier results like 2023 over an otherwise very profitable longer time horizon.
Personal Lines
The 2022 results reflected prior accident year reserve releases in lines which we were exiting. The 2023 results reflect a more normal level of loss for this line going forward.
Assumed Reinsurance
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Our assumed reinsurance portfolio is comprised of contracts that provide reinsurance protection to insurance companies. We only reinsure companies with attractive expected profitability, relevant materiality, and strong reputation. Our reinsurance business focuses on long-term relationships.
Net earned premium grew to $159.9 million in 2023 compared to $108.5 million in 2022. The net loss ratio deteriorated 14.3 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2022. This is due to an enhanced analysis of our assumed book of business that lead to a realignment of loss reserves to better align with exposures. The realignment was between lines of business and accident years and had no impact on the total loss ratio results.
Underwriting Expense Ratio
Our underwriting expense ratio, which is a percentage of amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses over net premiums earned, was 34.9 percent, 34.5 percent and 32.6 percent for 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively. The increase in expense ratio in 2023 as compared to 2022 was primarily driven by prior year changes to our employee post-retirement benefit plans. These changes provided benefits to the underwriting expense ratio in 2022 and 2021 that concluded at the end of 2022. Additionally, the 2023 underwriting expense ratio increased due to reinsurance premiums which were offset by our ongoing actions to sustainably reduce expenses and direct premium growth. The increase in expense ratio in 2022 as compared to 2021 was primarily driven by the change in design of our employee post-retirement benefit plans.
During the fourth quarter of 2023, the Company evaluated categories of expenses included in the underwriting expense ratio and identified two categories of expenses that have been reclassified as non-underwriting expenses: foreign exchange gain/loss and charitable contributions. These expenses have been isolated in a new financial line "Other Non-Underwriting Expenses" on the income statement. As a result, there were immaterial changes to the historical underwriting expense ratio and the combined ratio.
Federal Income Taxes
We reported a federal income tax benefit on a consolidated basis of $10.0 million or 25.2 percent of pre-tax losses in 2023. For 2023, the effective tax rate varied from the statutory federal income tax expense rate at 21.0 percent, due primarily to our portfolio of tax-exempt securities and general business tax credits. In 2022, federal income tax benefit on a consolidated basis was $3.0 million or (24.5) percent of pre-tax income and federal income tax expense on a consolidated basis was $16.2 million or 16.8 percent of pre-tax income in 2021.
Deferred tax assets are reduced by a valuation allowance when management believes it is more likely than not that some, or all, of the deferred taxes will not be realized. After considering all positive and negative evidence of taxable income in the carryback and carryforward periods and our tax planning strategy of holding debt securities with unrealized losses to maturity or recovery, we believe it is more likely than not that all the deferred assets will be realized. As a result, we have no valuation allowance at December 31, 2023 and 2022.
As of December 31, 2023, we had no alternative minimum tax credit carryforwards.
INVESTMENTS
Investment Philosophy
The Company's assets are invested to preserve capital and maximize after-tax total return while maintaining an appropriate balance of risk. The risk-adjusted return on our portfolio is an important component of overall financial results, but quality and safety of principal is the highest priority of our investment program. Our general investment philosophy is to purchase financial instruments with the expectation that we will hold them to their maturity. However, active management of our portfolio is considered necessary to appropriately manage risk, achieve portfolio objectives and maximize investment income as market conditions change.
Each of our insurance company subsidiaries develops an appropriate investment strategy that aligns with its business needs and supports United Fire's strategic plan and risk appetite. The portfolio is structured to be compliant with
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state insurance laws that prescribe the quality, concentration and type of investments that may be made by insurance companies.
Investment Portfolio
Our invested assets at December 31, 2023 totaled $1,886.5 million, compared to $1,844.9 million at December 31, 2022, an increase of $41.6 million. At December 31, 2023, fixed maturity securities and equity securities comprised 89.4 percent and 2.9 percent of our investment portfolio, respectively. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, we utilize a conservative investment philosophy, investing in a diversified portfolio of high-quality, intermediate-term taxable corporate bonds, taxable U.S. government and government agency bonds and tax-exempt U.S. municipal bonds. Our overall investment strategy is to stay fully invested (i.e., minimize cash balances). If additional cash is needed, we have the ability to take advances through the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines ("FHLB Des Moines") facility.
Composition
We develop our investment strategies based on a number of factors, including estimated duration of reserve liabilities, short- and long-term liquidity needs, projected tax status, general economic conditions, expected rates of inflation and regulatory requirements. We administer our investment portfolio based on investment guidelines approved by management and the investment committee of our Board of Directors that comply with applicable statutory regulations.
The composition of our investment portfolio at December 31, 2023 is presented at carrying value in the following table:
Percent
(In Thousands) of Total
Fixed maturities:
Trading securities —
Other long-term investments 99,507 5.3
Short-term investments 100 —
At December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, our fixed maturities portfolio is classified as available-for-sale. Available-for-sale fixed maturity securities are carried at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income in stockholders' equity. We record convertible redeemable preferred debt securities and equity securities at fair value, with any changes in fair value recognized in earnings.
As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, we did not have direct exposure to investments in subprime mortgages or other credit enhancement vehicles.
Credit Quality
The following table shows the composition of fixed maturity securities held in our available-for-sale security portfolios by credit rating at December 31, 2023 and 2022. Information contained in the table is generally based upon the issue credit ratings provided by Moody's, unless the rating is unavailable, in which case we obtain it from Standard & Poor's.
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Rating Carrying Value % of Total Carrying Value % of Total
Duration
Our investment portfolio is invested primarily in fixed maturity securities whose fair value is susceptible to market risk, specifically interest rate changes. Duration is a measurement used to quantify our inherent interest rate risk and analyze our ability to match our invested assets to our reserve liabilities. If our invested assets and reserve liabilities have similar durations, then any change in interest rates will have an equal and offsetting effect on these accounts. The primary purpose for matching invested assets and reserve liabilities is liquidity. With appropriate matching, our investments will mature when cash is needed, preventing the need to liquidate other assets prematurely. Mismatches in the duration of assets and liabilities can cause significant fluctuations in our results of operations.
The weighted average effective duration of our portfolio of fixed maturity securities was 4.0 years at December 31, 2023 compared to 4.3 years at December 31, 2022.
The amortized cost and fair value of available-for-sale and trading fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2023, by contractual maturity, are shown in the following table. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. Asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations may be subject to prepayment risk and are therefore not categorized by contractual maturity.
(In Thousands) Available-For-Sale
Amortized Fair
Investment Results
We invest the premiums received from our policyholders in order to generate investment income, which is an important component of our revenues and profitability. The amount of investment income that we are able to generate is affected by many factors, some of which are beyond our control. Some of these factors are volatility in the financial markets, economic growth, inflation, changes in interest rates, world political conditions, terrorist attacks or threats of terrorism, adverse events affecting other companies in our industry or the industries in which we invest and other unpredictable national or world events. Net investment income increased 32.7 percent in 2023, compared with the same period of 2022. While interest on fixed maturities was up $7.5 million driven by higher interest rates, this was offset by a decrease in dividends on equity securities of $1.6 million, due to a strategic reallocation of equity securities to fixed income assets during 2023. Income on other long-term investments resulted in an additional $3.2 million of income as the valuation of the investments in limited liability partnerships varies
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from period to period in large part due to current equity market conditions. We expect to maintain our investment philosophy of purchasing quality investments rated investment grade or better.
An allowance for credit losses is recorded based on a number of factors including the current economic conditions, management's expectations of future economic conditions and performance indicators, such as market value versus amortized cost, investment spreads widening or contracting, rating actions, payment and default history. The following table contains a rollforward of the allowance for credit losses for available-for-sale fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2023:
As of
Beginning balance, January 1, 2023 $ 3
Reductions for securities sold during the period (realized) —
Writeoffs charged against the allowance —
Recoveries of amounts previously written off (2)
Ending balance, December 31, 2023 $ 1
Changes in unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale fixed maturity securities do not affect net income and earnings per share but do impact comprehensive income, stockholders' equity and book value per share. We believe that any unrealized losses on our available-for-sale fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2023 are temporary based upon our current analysis of the issuers of the securities that we hold and current market conditions. We invest in high quality assets to provide protection from future credit quality issues. Non-credit related unrealized gains and losses are recognized as a component of other comprehensive income and represent other market movements that are not credit related, for example interest rate changes. We have no intent to sell, and it is more likely than not that we will not be required to sell, these securities until the fair value recovers to at least equal our cost basis or the securities mature.
Net Investment Income
In 2023, our investment income, net of investment expenses, increased $14.7 million to $59.6 million as compared to 2022, due to interest on fixed maturities, income on other long-term investments in limited liability partnerships, and other income. These increases were slightly offset by a decrease in dividends on equity securities.
In 2022, our investment income, net of investment expenses, decreased $10.8 million to $44.9 million as compared to 2021, primarily due to the change in the fair value of our investments in limited liability partnerships.
The following table summarizes the components of net investment income:
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Investment income from operations:
Income on other long-term investments — 0 0
Interest on short-term investments 1,068 354 18
Interest on cash and cash equivalents 2,228 740 252
(1)Represents the change in value of our interests in limited liability partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting.
In 2023, 81.4 percentof our gross investment income originated from interest on fixed maturities, compared to 89.4 percent and 66.7 percent in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
The following table details our annualized yield on average invested assets for 2023, 2022, and 2021, which is based on our invested assets (including money market accounts) at the beginning and end of the year divided by net investment income:
(In Thousands)
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Net Investment Gains and Losses
The following table summarizes the components of our net investment gains or losses:
Net investment gains (losses):
Net gains (losses):
Fixed maturities:
Allowance for credit losses 1 (3) 5
Trading securities
Change in fair value — — —
Sales — — —
Equity securities:
Short-term investments — — —
Other-than-temporary-impairment charges:
Fixed maturities — — —
Equity securities — — —
Cash equivalents — — —
Net Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses
As of December 31, 2023, net unrealized investment losses, after tax, totaled $67.0 million compared to unrealized losses of $88.4 million and unrealized gains of $49.8 million as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The unrealized investment loss position is a result of continued elevated interest rates during 2023, with a slight improvement from 2022 that resulted in a small change in unrealized gains for 2023.
The net unrealized investment losses in 2022 was primarily the result of a change in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to higher interest rates during 2022. The decrease in net unrealized investment gains in 2021 was primarily the result of a decrease in fixed maturity securities held and a change in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to higher interest rates during 2021.
The following table summarizes the change in our net unrealized investment gains (losses):
Changes in net unrealized investment gains (losses):
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MARKET RISK
Our Consolidated Balance Sheets include financial instruments whose fair values are subject to market risk. The active management of market risk is integral to our operations. Market risk is the potential for loss due to a decrease in the fair value of securities resulting from uncontrollable fluctuations, such as: interest rate risk, equity price risk, foreign exchange risk, credit risk, inflation, or geopolitical conditions. Our primary market risk exposures are: changes in interest rates, deterioration of credit quality in specific issuers, sectors or the economy as a whole, and an unforeseen decrease in the liquidity of securities we hold.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the price sensitivity of a fixed income maturity security or portfolio of securities to changes in level of interest rates. Generally, there is an inverse relationship between changes in interest rates and changes in the price of a fixed income/maturity security. Plainly stated, if interest rates go up (down), bond prices go down (up). A vast majority of our holdings are fixed income maturity and other interest rate sensitive securities that will decrease (increase) in value as interest rates increase (decrease). While it is generally our intent to hold our investments in fixed maturity securities to maturity or recovery, we have classified a majority of our fixed maturity portfolio as available-for-sale. Available-for-sale fixed income maturity securities are carried at fair value on the Consolidated Balance Sheets with unrealized gains or losses reported net of tax in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income. A change in the prevailing interest rates generally translates into a change in the fair value of our fixed income/maturity securities, and by extension, our overall book value.
Duration
We analyze potential changes in the value of our investment portfolio due to the market risk factors noted above within the overall context of asset and liability management. A technique we use in the management of our investment portfolio specifically related to interest rate risk is the calculation of duration. Our actuaries estimate the payout pattern of our reserve liabilities to determine their duration, which is the present value of the weighted average payments expressed in years. We then establish a target duration for our investment portfolio so that at any given time the estimated cash generated by the investment portfolio will closely match the estimated cash required for the payment of the related reserves. We structure the investment portfolio to meet the target duration to achieve the required cash flow, based on liquidity and market risk factors.
Impact of Interest Rate Changes
The amounts set forth in the following table detail the impact of hypothetical interest rate changes on the fair value of fixed maturity securities held at December 31, 2023. The sensitivity analysis measures the change in fair values arising from immediate changes in selected interest rate scenarios. We employed hypothetical parallel shifts in the yield curve of plus or minus 100 and 200 basis points in the simulations. Additionally, based upon the yield curve shifts, we employ estimates of prepayment speeds for mortgage-related products and the likelihood of call or put options being exercised within the simulations.
The selection of a 100-basis-point and 200-basis-point increase or decrease in interest rates should not be construed as a prediction by our management of future market events, but rather as an illustration of the potential impact of an event.
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(In Thousands) Points Points Base Points Points
AVAILABLE-FOR-SALE
Fixed maturities
Bonds
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
General obligations:
Special revenue:
Corporate bonds
Collateralized mortgage obligations
To the extent actual results differ from the assumptions utilized, our duration and interest rate measures could be significantly affected. As a result, these calculations may not fully capture the impact of nonparallel changes in the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates.
Equity Price Risk
Equity price risk is the potential loss arising from changes in the fair value (i.e., market price) of equity securities held in our portfolio. Changes in the price of an equity security may be due to a change in the future earnings capacity or strategic outlook of the security issuer, and what investors are willing to pay for those future earnings and related strategy. The carrying values of our equity securities are based on quoted market prices, from an independent source, as of the balance sheet date. Market prices of equity securities, in general, are subject to fluctuations that could cause the amount to be realized upon the future sale of the securities to differ significantly from the current reported value. The fluctuations may result from perceived changes in the underlying economic characteristics of the security issuer, the relative price of alternative investments, general market conditions, and supply/demand factors related to a particular security.
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Impact of Price Change
The following table details the effect on the fair value of our investments in equity securities for a positive and negative 10 percent price change at December 31, 2023:
(In Thousands) -10% Base +10%
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk
Foreign currency exchange rate risk arises from the possibility that changes in foreign exchange rates will impact our financial results. Foreign currency exchange rate risk can occur as a result of investment holdings in foreign currency, settlement of amounts due to or from foreign reinsurers or our participation in FAL. We consider this risk to be immaterial to our operations.
Credit Risk
Credit risk is the willingness and ability of a borrower to repay on time and in full any principal and interest due to the lender. Losses related to credit risk are realized through the income statement and have a direct impact on the earnings of UFG. We believe that we maintain the appropriate balance of risk in our portfolio, consistent with our Investment Policy Statement and ensure the portfolio is compensated appropriately for the credit risk it holds. We do have within our municipal bond holdings a small number of securities whose ratings were enhanced by third-party insurance for the payment of principal and interest in the event of an issuer default. Of the insured municipal securities in our investment portfolio, 98.2 percent and 98.7 percent were rated "A" or above, and 95.0 percent and 95.2 percent were rated "AA" or above at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively, without the benefit of insurance. Due to the underlying financial strength of the issuers of the securities, we believe that the loss of insurance would not have a material impact on our operations, financial position, or liquidity.
We have no direct exposure in any of the guarantors of our investments. Our largest indirect exposure with a single guarantor totaled $7.6 million or 28.9 percent of our insured municipal securities at December 31, 2023, as compared to $7.7 million or 29.1 percent at December 31, 2022. Our five largest indirect exposures to financial guarantors accounted for $28.6 million and $28.7 million of our municipal securities at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Liquidity measures our ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet our short- and long-term cash obligations. Our cash inflows are primarily a result of the receipt of premiums, reinsurance recoveries, sales or maturities of investments, and investment income. Cash provided from these sources is used to fund the payment of losses and loss settlement expenses, the purchase of investments, operating expenses, dividends, pension plan contributions, and in recent years, common stock repurchases.
We monitor our capital adequacy to support our business on a regular basis. The future capital requirements of our business will depend on many factors, including our ability to write new business successfully and to establish premium rates and reserves at levels sufficient to cover losses. Our ability to underwrite is largely dependent upon the quality of our claims paying and financial strength ratings as evaluated by independent rating agencies. In particular, we require (1) sufficient capital to maintain our financial strength ratings, as issued by various rating agencies, at a level considered necessary by management to enable our insurance company subsidiaries to compete and (2) sufficient capital to enable our insurance company subsidiaries to meet the capital adequacy tests performed by regulatory agencies in the United States.
Cash outflows may be variable because of the uncertainty regarding settlement dates for losses. In addition, the timing and amount of individual catastrophe losses are inherently unpredictable and could increase our liquidity requirements. The timing and amount of reinsurance recoveries may be affected by reinsurer solvency and reinsurance coverage disputes.
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Historically, we have generated substantial cash inflows from operations. It is our policy to invest the cash generated from operations in securities with maturities that, in the aggregate, correlate to the anticipated timing of payments for losses and loss settlement expenses. The majority of our assets are invested in available-for-sale fixed maturity securities.
The following table displays a summary of cash sources and uses in 2023, 2022 and 2021:
Cash Flow Summary Years Ended December 31,
Cash provided by (used in)
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents $ 5,396 $ (35,454) $ 44,156
Our cash flows were sufficient to meet our current liquidity needs for the full-year periods ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021 and we anticipate they will be sufficient to meet our future liquidity needs. We also have the ability to take advances through the Federal Home Loan Bank facility. See Part II, Item 8, Note 13 "Debt" for more information.
Operating Activities
Net cash flows provided by operating activities totaled $171.7 million in 2023, used in operating activities totaled $(1.3) million in 2022 and provided by operating activities totaled $29.9 million in 2021, respectively. Our cash flows from operating activities were sufficient to meet our liquidity needs for 2023, 2022 and 2021.
Investing Activities
Cash in excess of operating requirements is generally invested in fixed maturity securities and equity securities. Fixed maturity securities provide regular interest payments and allow us to match the duration of our liabilities. Equity securities provide dividend income, potential dividend income growth and potential appreciation. For further discussion of our investments, including our philosophy and portfolio, see the "Investment Portfolio" section contained in this Item.
In addition to investment income, possible sales of investments and proceeds from calls or maturities of fixed maturity securities also can provide liquidity. During the next five years, $0.6 billion, or 35.64 percent of our fixed maturity portfolio will mature.
We invest funds required for short-term cash needs primarily in money market accounts, which are classified as cash equivalents. At December 31, 2023, our cash and cash equivalents included $20.3 million related to these money market accounts, compared to $31.3 million at December 31, 2022.
Net cash flows used in investing activities totaled $149.9 million in 2023 and net cash flows used in investing activities totaled $19.2 million in 2022. Net cash flows provided by investing activities totaled $31.7 million in 2021. In 2023, we had cash inflows from scheduled and unscheduled investment maturities, redemptions, prepayments, and sales of investments that totaled $162.1 million compared to $280.4 million and $451.1 million for the same period in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Our cash outflows for investment purchases totaled $301.1 million in 2023, compared to $297.5 million and $405.4 million for the same period in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Financing Activities
Net cash flows used in financing activities totaled $16.5 million in 2023 and $15.0 million in 2022. Net cash flow used in financing activities totaled $17.5 million in 2021. The net cash flows used in financing activities are
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primarily the payment of cash dividends of $16.2 million, $15.9 million and $15.1 million in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively, along with share repurchases of $2.0 million in 2021.
Contractual Obligations and Commitments
The following table shows our contractual obligations and commitments, including our estimated payments due by period at December 31, 2023. Time periods of less than one year are considered short-term cash obligations and time periods greater than one year are considered long-term cash obligations.
(In Thousands) Payments Due By Period
Loss and Loss Settlement Expense Reserves
The amounts presented are estimates of the dollar amounts and time periods in which we expect to pay out our gross loss and loss settlement expense reserves. Because the timing of future payments may vary from the stated contractual obligation, these amounts are estimates based upon historical payment patterns and may not represent actual future payments. Refer to "Critical Accounting Policies — Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses" in this section for further discussion.
Long term debt
The Company executed a private placement debt transaction on December 15, 2020 between United Fire & Casualty Company, Federated Mutual Insurance Company, a mutual insurance company domiciled in Minnesota ("Federated Mutual"), and Federated Life Insurance Company, an insurance company domiciled in Minnesota ("Federated Life" and together with Federated Mutual, the "Note Purchasers").
UFG sold an aggregate $50.0 million of notes due 2040 to the Note Purchasers. One note with a principal amount of $35.0 million was issued to Federated Mutual and one note with a principal amount of $15.0 million was issued to Federated Life.
Interest payments will be paid quarterly on March 15, June 15, September 15 and December 15 of each year (each such date, an "Interest Payment Date"). The interest rate will equal the rate that corresponds to the A.M. Best Co. (or its successor's) financial strength rating for members of the United Fire & Casualty Pooled Group as of the applicable Interest Payment Date. Interest expense totaled $3.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. Payment of interest is subject to approval by the Iowa Insurance Division.
Operating Leases
Our operating lease obligations are for the rental of office space, vehicles, computer equipment and office equipment. For further discussion of our operating leases, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 12 "Lease Commitments."
Profit-Sharing Commissions
We offer our agents a profit-sharing plan as an incentive for them to place high-quality property and casualty insurance business with us. Based on business produced by the agencies in 2023, property and casualty agencies expect to receive profit-sharing payments of $23.9 million in 2024.
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Guaranty Fund Assessments
The Company is subject to guaranty fund and other assessments by the states in which it writes business. At December 31, 2023 the accrued liability for guaranty fund assessments was $0 and the premium tax benefit asset was $1.6 million. Guaranty fund assets are typically realized over the next five to 10 years.
Commitments for Capital Expenditures
Dividends
Dividends paid to shareholders totaled $16.2 million, $15.9 million and $15.1 million in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Our practice has been to pay quarterly cash dividends, which we have paid every quarter since March 1968.
Payments of any future dividends and the amounts of such dividends, however, will depend upon factors such as net income, financial condition, capital requirements, and general business conditions. We will only pay dividends if declared by our Board of Directors out of legally available funds.
As a holding company with no independent operations of its own, United Fire Group, Inc. relies on dividends received from its insurance company subsidiaries in order to pay dividends to its common shareholders. Dividends payable by our insurance subsidiaries are governed by the laws in the states in which they are domiciled. In all cases, these state laws permit the payment of dividends only from earned surplus arising from business operations. For example, under Iowa law, the maximum dividend or distribution that may be paid within a 12-month period without prior approval of the Iowa Insurance Commissioner is generally restricted to the greater of 10 percent of statutory surplus as of the preceding December 31, or net income of the preceding calendar year on a statutory basis, not greater than earned statutory surplus. Other states in which our insurance company subsidiaries are domiciled may impose similar restrictions on dividends and distributions. Based on these restrictions, at December 31, 2023, our insurance company subsidiary, United Fire & Casualty, is able to make a maximum of $58.6 million in dividend payments without prior regulatory approval. These restrictions are not expected to have a material impact in meeting our cash obligations.
Share Repurchases
Under our share repurchase program, first announced in August 2007, we may purchase our common stock from time to time on the open market or through privately negotiated transactions. The amount and timing of any purchases will be at our discretion and will depend upon a number of factors, including the share price, economic and general market conditions, and corporate and regulatory requirements. Our share repurchase program may be modified or discontinued at any time.
During 2023, 2022 and 2021, pursuant to authorization by our Board of Directors, we repurchased 0, 0, and 67,651 shares of our common stock, respectively, which used cash totaling $0.0 million in 2023 and 2022 and $2.0 million in 2021. The Board of Directors reauthorized the share repurchase program in November 2022 through August 2024. At December 31, 2023, we were authorized to purchase an additional 1,719,326 shares of our common stock.
Credit Facilities
Information specific to our credit facilities is incorporated by reference from Note 13 "Debt" contained in Part II, Item 8. On December 29, 2023, the Company terminated its existing credit agreement, dated as of March 31, 2020, with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, issuing lender, swing-line lender and lender, and the other lenders from time to time party thereto.
In December 2023, the Company became a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines ("FHLB Des Moines"). Membership allows access to loans or advances. As of December 31, 2023, there were no advances outstanding under the FHLB Des Moines agreement. For further information regarding the agreement with FHLB Des Moines, see Note 13 "Debt" contained in Part II, Item 8.
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Stockholders' Equity
Stockholders' equity decreased 0.9 percent to $733.7 million at December 31, 2023, from $740.1 million at December 31, 2022. The decrease is primarily attributed to a net loss of $29.7 million, and stockholder dividends of $16.2 million, offset by an increase in net unrealized value from our fixed maturity securities, net of tax, of $21.4 million and a $15.1 million increase due to a change in liability for employee benefit plans. As of December 31, 2023, the book value per share of our common stock was $29.04, compared to $29.36 at December 31, 2022.
Risk-Based Capital
The NAIC adopted risk-based capital requirements, which requires us to calculate a minimum capital requirement for each of our insurance companies based on individual company insurance risk factors. These "risk-based capital" results are used by state insurance regulators to identify companies that require regulatory attention or the initiation of regulatory action. At December 31, 2023, all of our insurance companies had capital well in excess of required levels.
Funding Commitments
We hold investments in limited liability partnerships as part of our investment strategy. Pursuant to agreements with our limited liability partnership investments, we are contractually committed through July 10, 2030 to make capital contributions upon request of the partnerships. Our remaining potential contractual obligation was $28.6 million at December 31, 2023. These partnerships are included in our other long term investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets with a current fair value of $98.3 million, or 5.2 percent of our total invested assets, at December 31, 2023.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Critical accounting policies are defined as those that are representative of significant judgments and uncertainties and that may potentially result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. We base our discussion and analysis of our results of operations and financial condition on the amounts reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements, which we have prepared in accordance with GAAP. As we prepare these Consolidated Financial Statements, we must make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements, and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses for the reporting period. We evaluate our estimates on an ongoing basis. We base our estimates on historical experience and on other assumptions we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. Actual results could differ from those estimates. We believe our most critical accounting policies are as follows.
Investment Valuation
Upon acquisition, we classify investments in marketable securities as held-to-maturity, available-for-sale, or trading. We record investments in available-for-sale and trading fixed maturity securities and equity securities at fair value. Other long-term investments consist primarily of our interests in limited liability partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting. We record mortgage loans at their amortized cost less any valuation allowance.
In general, investment securities are exposed to various risks, such as interest rate risk, credit risk, and overall market volatility risk. Therefore, it is reasonably possible that changes in the fair value of our investment securities that are reported at fair value will occur in the near term and such changes could materially affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Also, it is reasonably possible that changes in the value of our investments in trading securities and limited liability partnerships could occur in the future and such changes could materially affect our results of operations as reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements.
Fair Value Measurement
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Information specific to the fair value measurement of our financial instruments and disclosures is incorporated by reference from Note 3 "Fair Value of Financial Instruments" contained in Part II, Item 8.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs ("DAC")
We record an asset for certain costs of underwriting new business, primarily commissions, premium taxes and variable underwriting and policy issue expenses that have been deferred. The amount of underwriting compensation expense eligible for deferral is based on time studies and a ratio of success in policy placement. At December 31, 2023 and 2022, our DAC asset was $126.5 million and $104.2 million, respectively.
The DAC asset is amortized over the life of the policies written, generally one year. We assess the recoverability of DAC on a quarterly basis by line of business. This assessment is performed by comparing recorded unearned premium to the sum of unamortized DAC and estimates of expected losses and loss settlement expenses. If the sum of these costs exceeds the amount of recorded unearned premium (i.e., the line of business is expected to generate an operating loss), the excess is recognized in current period other underwriting expenses as an offset against the established DAC asset. We refer to this offset as a premium deficiency charge.
To calculate the premium deficiency charge by line of business, we estimate an expected loss and loss settlement expense ratio which is based on our best estimate of future losses for each line of business. This calculation is performed on a quarterly basis and developed in conjunction with our quarterly reserving process. The expected loss and loss settlement expense ratios are the only assumptions we utilize in our premium deficiency calculation. Changes in these assumptions can have a significant impact on the amount of premium deficiency charge recognized for a line of business. The premium deficiency calculation is aggregated by line of business in a manner consistent with how the policies are currently being marketed and managed. The Company does not consider anticipated investment income in determining if a premium deficiency exists.
The following table illustrates the hypothetical impact on the premium deficiency charge recorded for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, of reasonably likely changes in the assumed loss and loss settlement expense ratios utilized for purposes of this calculation. The entire impact of these changes would be recognized through income as other underwriting expenses. The following table illustrates the impact of potential changes in the expected loss and loss settlement expense ratios for all lines of business on the premium deficiency charge. The base amount indicated below is the actual premium deficiency charge recorded as an offset against the DAC asset established as of the quarter ended December 31, 2023:
(In Thousands) -10% -5% Base +5% +10%
Actual future results could differ materially from our assumptions used to calculate the recorded DAC asset. Changes in our assumed loss and loss settlement expense ratios in the future would impact the amount of deferred costs in the period such changes in assumptions are made. The premium deficiency charge calculated for the quarter ended December 31, 2023 was $0.1 million compared to the premium deficiency charge of $0.9 million calculated for the same period of 2022.
Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses
Reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses are reported using our best estimate of ultimate liability for claims that occurred prior to the end of any given reporting period but have not yet been paid. Before credit for reinsurance recoverables, these reserves were $1.6 billion and $1.5 billion at December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. We purchase reinsurance to mitigate the impact of large losses and catastrophic events. Loss and loss settlement expense reserves ceded to reinsurers were $191.6 million for 2023 and $146.9 million for 2022. Our reserves, before credit for reinsurance recoverables, by line of business as of December 31, 2023, were as follows:
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(In Thousands) Case Basis IBNR LossSettlementExpense Total Reserves
Commercial lines
Personal lines
Case-Basis Reserves
For each of our lines of business, with respect to reported claims, we establish reserves on a case-by-case basis. Our experienced claims personnel estimate these case-basis reserves using adjusting guidelines established by management. Our goal is to set the case-basis reserves at the ultimate expected loss amount as soon as possible after information about the claim becomes available.
Establishing the case reserve for an individual claim is subjective and complex, requiring us to estimate future payments and values that will be sufficient to settle an individual claim. Setting a reserve for an individual claim is an inherently uncertain process. When we establish and adjust individual claim reserves, we do so based on our knowledge of the circumstances and facts of the claim. Upon notice of a claim, we establish a preliminary (average claim cost) reserve based on the limited claim information initially reported. Subsequently, we conduct an investigation of each reported claim, which allows us to more fully understand the factors contributing to the loss and our potential exposure. This investigation may extend over a long period of time. As our claim investigation progresses, and as our claims personnel identify trends in claims activity, we may refine and adjust our estimates of case reserves. To evaluate and refine our overall reserving process, we track and monitor all claims until they are settled and paid in full, with all salvage, subrogation claims, and liability deductible recoveries being resolved.
Most of our insurance policies are written on an occurrence basis that provides coverage if a loss occurs during the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later. For example, some liability claims may be reported 10 years or more after the policy period, and the workers' compensation coverage provided by our policies pays unlimited medical benefits for the duration of the claimant's injury up to the lifetime of the claimant. In addition, final settlement of certain claims can be delayed for years due to litigation or other reasons. Reserves for these claims require us to estimate future costs, including the effect of judicial actions, litigation trends and medical cost inflation, among others. Reserve development can occur over time as conditions and circumstances change many years after the policy was issued and/or the loss occurred.
Our loss reserves include amounts related to both short-tail and long-tail lines of business. A short-tail insurance product is one where claim settlement values are known comparatively quickly. Final settlement values for long-tail insurance products are sometimes not known for many years. The longer the time span between the incidence of a loss and the settlement of the claim, the more the final settlement can vary from the reserves initially established. Accordingly, long-tail insurance products can have significant implications on the reserving process.
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Our short-tail lines of business include fire and allied lines, commercial property, automobile physical damage and inland marine. The amounts of the case-based reserves that we establish for claims in these lines depend upon various factors, such as individual claim facts (including type of coverage and severity of loss), our historical loss experience and trends in general economic conditions (including changes in replacement costs, medical costs and inflation).
Our long-tail lines of business include workers' compensation and other liability. In addition, certain product lines such as commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and surety include both long-tail coverages and short-tail coverages. For many long-tail liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement of the claim. As a result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition, long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretations and the legal environment. Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability than for short-tail coverages.
The amounts of the case-basis loss reserves that we establish for claims in long-tail lines of business depends upon various factors, including individual claim facts (including type of coverage, severity of loss and underlying policy limits), company historical loss experience, changes in underwriting practice, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in the awarding of damages, changes in political attitudes and trends in general economic conditions, including inflation. As with our short-tail lines of business, we review and make changes to long-tail case-based reserves based on our review of continually evolving facts as they become available to us during the claims settlement process. Our adjustments to case-based reserves are reported in the financial statements in the period that new information arises about the claim. Examples of facts that become known that could cause us to change our case-based reserves include, but are not limited to: evidence that loss severity is different than previously assessed; new claimants who have presented claims; and the assessment that no coverage exists.
Incurred But Not Reported Reserves
On a quarterly basis, the Company's actuarial reserving department performs a detailed analysis of IBNR reserves. This analysis uses various projection methods to provide several estimates of ultimate loss (or LAE) for each individual accident year and line of business. The projection methods include, but are not limited to, paid development; reported development; expected loss ratio methods; and Bornhuetter Ferguson methods on both a paid and reported basis. These methods may need to be adjusted for anomalies or outliers in the data, unusual internal or external trends, or other factors impacting the reliability/credibility of the historical company experience. Results of the projection methods are compared, and a point estimate of ultimate loss (or LAE) is established for each individual accident year and line of business. The specific projection methods used to establish point estimates vary depending on what is deemed most appropriate for a particular line of business and accident year. IBNR estimates are derived by subtracting reported loss from the final point estimates.
Senior management meets with our actuarial team and controller quarterly to review the adequacy of carried IBNR reserves based on results from this actuarial analysis and makes adjustments for changes in business and other factors not completely captured by the data within the actuarial analysis. This method of establishing our IBNR reserves has consistently resulted in aggregate reserve levels that management believes are reasonable in comparison to the reserve estimates indicated by the actuarial analysis.
For our short-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves constitute a small portion of the overall reserves. These claims are generally reported and settled shortly after the loss occurs. In our long-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves constitute a relatively higher proportion of total reserves, because, for many liability claims, significant periods of time may elapse between the initial occurrence of the losses, the reporting of the losses to us, and the ultimate settlement of the losses.
Loss Settlement Expense Reserves
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Loss settlement expense reserves include amounts ultimately allocable to individual claims, as well as amounts required for the general overhead of the claims handling operation that are not specifically allocable to individual claims. We do not establish case reserves for these expenses. Instead, on a quarterly basis, our internal reserving department performs a detailed statistical analysis (using historical data) to estimate the required reserve for unpaid loss settlement expenses.
LAE is composed of two distinct kinds of expenses which are defense and cost containment ("DCC") and adjusting and other ("A&O"). These two expense types have different purposes and characteristics which necessitates different estimation methods in order to provide a valid quarterly estimate of the required reserve for unpaid expense which is generally referred to as an LAE IBNR reserve.
Reserves for unpaid DCC are estimated quarterly by line of business for each individual accident year using three methods: (1) Paid development, (2) Expected emergence of DCC, and (3) Bornhuetter Ferguson. Each of the three methods produces an estimate of the ultimate DCC cost for an individual accident year and the final estimate is generally a weighted average of the various methods. Inception to date paid DCC is subtracted from the final ultimate DCC estimate to provide the estimated DCC unpaid reserve for each individual accident year.
Reserves for unpaid A&O are estimated quarterly by line of business for each individual accident year using a single method. This method consists of applying a percentage factor to unpaid loss reserves. The percentage factor used differs by line of business and is evaluated and established on an annual basis using year-end data. The percentage factor is evaluated and selected after reviewing the ratio of paid A&O to paid loss using calendar year data for the most recent five years.
Reinsurance Reserves
The estimation of assumed and ceded reinsurance loss and loss settlement expense reserves is subject to the same factors as the estimation of loss and loss settlement expense reserves. In addition to those factors, which give rise to inherent uncertainties in establishing loss and loss settlement expense reserves, there exists a delay in our receipt of reported claims for assumed business due to the procedure of having claims first reported through one or more intermediary insurers or reinsurers.
Reserves for assumed reinsurance are established using methods and techniques identical to those used for direct lines of business. The additional delay inherent in assumed reinsurance reporting is considered in our reserving process and payment is not problematic. Assumed reinsurance, like every independent line of business, has unique reporting and payment patterns that are reviewed as part of the reserve estimation process.
There are three distinct types of reserves for expected recoveries: (1) reported claim reserves, (2) loss IBNR, and (3) allocated LAE IBNR. Ceded reserves for reported claims are calculated by subtracting the primary retention from the claim value established by our claim adjuster. Ceded IBNR comes from multiple treaties and is reviewed quarterly by our reserving actuaries in conjunction with the direct reviews. Multiple methods are utilized in the ceded reviews which vary by line of business. These include estimates based on the relationship of ceded premium to direct premium, Bornhuetter Ferguson methods, and methods based on industry excess of loss factors. Some of our business is 100.0 percent ceded or based on a set quota share percentage. In those cases, ceded loss IBNR is typically formulaic based on direct loss IBNR. We will cede some allocated LAE expenses when we cede loss. Our ceded allocated LAE IBNR is estimated based on our ceded unpaid loss reserves and the general relation, by line of business, between LAE and loss. Our primary retention for the core multi-line reinsurance treaty was $2.0 million for 2012 through 2015, increased to $2.5 million from 2016 through 2021, and increased again to $3.0 million beginning in 2022.
Key Assumptions
Our actuarial reserving department uses a number of key assumptions in establishing an estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, including the following assumptions: future loss settlement expenses can be estimated based on the Company's historical ratios of loss settlement expenses paid to losses; the Company's case-basis reserves reflect the most up-to-date information available about the unique circumstances of each individual claim;
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no new judicial decisions or regulatory actions will increase our case-basis obligations; historical aggregate claim reporting and payment patterns will continue into the future consistent with the observable past; significant unique and unusual claim events have been identified and appropriate adjustments have been made; and, to the best of our knowledge, there are no new latent trends that would impact our case-basis reserves.
Our key assumptions are subject to change as actual claims occur and as we gain additional information about the variables that underlie our assumptions. Accordingly, management reviews and updates these assumptions periodically to ensure that the assumptions continue to be valid. If necessary, management makes changes not only in the estimates derived from the use of these assumptions, but also in the assumptions themselves. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the loss reserving process, management believes that there is a reasonable chance that modification to key assumptions could individually, or in aggregate, result in reserve levels that are either significantly above or below the actual amount for which the related claims will eventually settle.
As an example, if our loss and loss settlement expense reserves of $1.6 billion as of December 31, 2023, is 10.0 percent inadequate, we would experience a reduction in future pre-tax earnings of up to $163.9 million. This reduction could be recorded in one year or multiple years, depending on when we identify the deficiency. The deficiency would also affect our financial position in that our equity would be reduced by an amount equivalent to the reduction in net income. Any deficiency that would be recognized in our loss and loss settlement expense reserves usually does not have a material effect on our liquidity because the claims have not been paid. Conversely, if our estimates of ultimate unpaid loss and loss settlement expense reserves prove to be redundant, our future earnings and financial position would be improved. We believe our approach produces recorded reserves that are reasonable as to their relative position within a range of reasonable reserves from year-to-year.
We are unable to reasonably quantify the impact of changes in our key assumptions utilized to establish individual case-basis reserves on our total reported reserves because the impact of these changes would be unique to each specific case-basis reserve established. However, based on historical experience, we believe that aggregate case-basis reserve volatility levels of 5.0 percent and 10.0 percent can be attributed to the ultimate development of our net case-basis reserves. The impact to pre-tax earnings would be a decrease if the reserves were to be adjusted upwards and an increase if the reserves were to be adjusted downwards. The table below details the impact of this development volatility on our reported net case-basis reserves at December 31, 2023:
(In Thousands)
Change in level of net case-basis reserve development 5% 10%
Impact on reported net case-basis reserves $ 36,019 $ 72,038
Due to the formula-based nature of our IBNR and loss settlement expense reserve calculations, changes in the key assumptions utilized to generate these reserves can impact our estimate of projected loss and potentially impact reported results. It is not possible to isolate and measure the potential impact of just one of these factors, and future loss trends could be partially impacted by all factors concurrently. Nevertheless, it is meaningful to view the sensitivity of the reserves to potential changes in these variables such as claim frequency and severity. To demonstrate the sensitivity of reserves to changes in significant assumptions, the following example is presented. The amounts reflect the pre-tax impact on earnings from a hypothetical percentage change in the calculation of IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves at December 31, 2023. The impact to pre-tax earnings would be a decrease if the reserves were to be adjusted upwards and an increase if the reserves were to be adjusted downwards. We believe that the changes presented are reasonably likely based upon an analysis of our historical IBNR and loss settlement expense reserve experience.
(In Thousands)
Change in claim frequency and claim severity assumptions 5% 10%
Impact due to change in IBNR reserving assumptions $ 25,339 $ 50,678
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(In Thousands)
Change in LAE paid to losses paid ratio 1% 2%
Impact due to change in LAE reserving assumptions $ 2,200 $ 4,399
In 2023, we did not change the key method through which we develop our assumptions on which we based our reserving calculations. In estimating our 2023 loss and loss settlement expense reserves, we did not anticipate future events or conditions that were inconsistent with past development patterns.
Certain of our lines of business are subject to the potential for greater loss and loss settlement expense development than others, which are discussed below:
Other Liability Reserves
Other liability is considered a long-tail line of business, as it can take a relatively long period of time to settle claims from prior accident years. This is partly due to the lag time between the date a loss or event occurs that triggers coverage and the date when the claim is actually reported. Defense costs are also a part of the insured expenses covered by liability policies and can be significant, sometimes greater than the cost of the actual paid claims. For the majority of our products, defense costs are outside of the policy limit, meaning that the amounts paid for defense costs are not subtracted from the available policy limit.
Factors that can cause reserve uncertainty in estimating reserves in this line include: reporting time lags; the number of parties involved in the underlying tort action; whether the "event" triggering coverage is confined to only one time period or is spread over multiple time periods; the potential dollars involved in the individual claim actions; whether such claims were reasonably foreseeable and intended to be covered at the time the contracts were written (i.e., coverage disputes); and the potential for mass claim actions.
Claims with longer reporting time lags may result in greater inherent risk. This is especially true for alleged claims with a latency feature, particularly where courts have ruled that coverage is spread over multiple policy years, hence involving multiple defendants (and their insurers and reinsurers) and multiple policies (thereby increasing the potential dollars involved and the underlying settlement complexity). Claims with long latencies also increase the potential time lag between writing a policy in a certain market and the recognition that such policy has potential mass tort and/or latent claim exposure.
Our reserve for other liability claims at December 31, 2023 was $819.2 million and consisted of 4,351 claims,compared with $757.5 million, consisting of 4,860 claims at December 31, 2022. Of the $819.2 million total reserve for other liability claims,$103.7 millionis identified as defense costs and $54.6 million is identified as general overhead required in the settlement of claims.
Included in the other liability line of business are gross reserves for construction defect losses and loss settlement expenses. Construction defect exposure is unique because of its very long tail as claims can often take over six years to be reported to us and another four years to settle. This exposure relates to a deficiency in the design or construction of a building or structure resulting from a failure to design or construct in a reasonably workmanlike manner, and/or in accordance with a buyer's reasonable expectation. In the cases involving latent defects, the determination of when a loss occurred is often unclear and governed by various theories that vary by state.Further, each state has a unique Statute of Repose that determines the length of time an insured has to report a claim generally from the date of substantial completion of a project.
In addition to these issues, other variables also contribute to a high degree of uncertainty in establishing reserves for construction defect claims. These variables include: whether coverage exists; when losses occur; the size of each loss; expectations for future interpretive rulings concerning contract provisions; and the extent to which the assertion of these claims will expand geographically. In recent years, we have implemented various underwriting measures that we anticipate will mitigate the amount of construction defect losses experienced. These initiatives include increased care regarding additional insured endorsements; stricter underwriting guidelines on the writing of residential contractors; and an increased utilization of loss control.
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Asbestos and Environmental Reserves
Included in the other liability and assumed reinsurance lines of business are reserves for asbestos and other environmental losses and loss settlement expenses. At December 31, 2023 and 2022, we had $0.8 million and $1.9 million, respectively, in direct and assumed asbestos and environmental loss reserves. The estimation of loss reserves for environmental claims and claims related to long-term exposure to asbestos and other substances is one of the most difficult aspects of establishing reserves, especially given the inherent uncertainties surrounding such claims. Although we record our best estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, the ultimate amounts paid upon settlement of such claims may be more or less than the amount of the reserves, because of the significant uncertainties involved and the likelihood that these uncertainties will not be resolved for many years.
Commercial Automobile Reserves
Commercial automobile claim reserves are established at exposure based on information either known and provided or obtained through the investigation. Incorporated are the perspective and experience the claims staff has acquired, which may include assumptions as to how the claim will develop over time. Exposures are identified and reserves established within 30 to 60 days depending on the complexity of the case.
Workers' Compensation Reserves
Like the other liability line of business, workers' compensation losses and loss settlement expense reserves are based upon variables that create uncertainty in estimating the ultimate reserve. Estimates for workers' compensation are particularly sensitive to assumptions about medical cost inflation, which has been relatively stable over the past few years. Other variables that we consider and that contribute to the uncertainty in establishing reserves for workers' compensation claims include: state legislative and regulatory environments; trends in jury awards; and mortality rates. Because of these variables, the process of reserving for the ultimate loss and loss settlement expense to be incurred requires the use of informed judgment and is inherently uncertain. Consequently, actual loss and loss settlement expense reserves may deviate from our estimates. Such deviations may be significant. Our reserve for workers' compensation claims at December 31, 2023 was $121.0 million and consisted of 1,077 claims, compared with $138.9 million, consisting of 1,414 claims, at December 31, 2022.
Reserve Development
The following reserve development section should be read in conjunction with the "Results of Operations for the Years Ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021" section of this Item 7.
In 2023, we recognized an adverse development in our net reserves for prior accident years totaling $67.8 million and adverse development of $12.9 million and favorable $48.9 million in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
The adverse development in 2023 was driven by the commercial other liability and commercial automobile lines of business. The adverse development in commercial other liability was primarily in our excess and surplus lines excess casualty book along with some adverse development in standard umbrella and construction defect due to increasing severity pressures. The pressure on these longer tailed lines, especially in accident years 2016-2019, related to social and economic inflation continued in 2023. Commercial automobile also experienced adverse development related to increasing severity largely in post-COVID-19 accident years. The remaining lines experienced very small amounts of reserve development.
Adverse development in 2022 was driven by leveraging deeper data insights and emerging claim experience on longer tailed lines where the most uncertainty in the reserving process exists. Our actions were focused on other liability lines, including excess umbrella business and construction defect, where increased loss exposure in these longer tailed businesses are also subject to social and economic inflation. This was offset by continued favorable development in commercial automobile which has seen consistent releases over the past two years.
Other factors contributing to our development include: establishing reserves at their ultimate expected loss amount as soon as practicable after information becomes available; using claims negotiation to control the size of
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settlements; assuming that we have liability for all claims, even though the issue of liability may, in some cases, be resolved in our favor; promoting claims management services to encourage return-to-work programs; case management by nurses for serious injuries and management of medical provider services and billings; and using programs and services to help prevent fraud and to assist in favorably resolving cases.
Based upon our comparison of carried reserves to actual claims experience over the last several years, we believe that using our Company's historical premium and claims data to establish reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses results in adequate and reasonable reserves. Reserve development is discussed in more detail under the heading "Reserve Development" in the "Results of Operations for the Years Ended December 31, 2023, 2022 and 2021" section in this Item 7.
The following table details the pre-tax impact on our property and casualty insurance business' financial results and financial condition of reasonably likely reserve development. Our lines of business that have historically been most susceptible to significant volatility in reserve development have been shown separately and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 5.0 percent and 10.0 percent. Our other, less volatile, lines of business have been aggregated and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 3.0 percent and 5.0 percent.
(In Thousands)
Hypothetical Reserve Development Volatility Levels -10% -5% +5% +10%
Impact on loss and loss settlement expenses
Hypothetical Reserve Development Volatility Levels -5% -3% +3% +5%
Impact on loss and loss settlement expenses
Independent Actuary
We engage an independent actuarial firm to render an opinion as to the reasonableness of the statutory reserves that are established by management. During 2023 and 2022, we engaged the services of Regnier Consulting Group, Inc. ("Regnier") as our independent actuarial firm for the property and casualty insurance business.
It is management's policy to utilize staff adjusters to develop our estimate of case-basis loss reserves. IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves are established through various formulae that utilize pertinent, recent Company historical data. The calculations are supplemented with knowledge of current trends and events that could result in adjustments to the level of IBNR and loss settlement expense reserves. On a quarterly basis, we compare our estimate of total reserves to the estimates prepared by Regnier by line of business to ensure that our estimates are within the actuary's acceptable range. Regnier performs a review of loss and loss settlement expense reserves at each year end using generally accepted actuarial guidelines to ensure that the recorded reserves appear reasonable. Our reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses, net of reinsurance recoverables, as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 were $1,447.1 million and $1,350.4 million, respectively. In 2023 and 2022, after considering the independent actuary's range of reasonable estimates, management believes that carried reserves were reasonable and therefore did not adjust the recorded amount.
Regnier uses four projection methods in its actuarial analysis of our loss reserves and uses two projection methods in its actuarial analysis of our loss settlement expense reserves. Based on the results of the projection methods, the actuaries select an actuarial point estimate of the reserves, which is compared to our carried reserves to evaluate the reasonableness of the carried reserves. The four methods utilized by Regnier to project losses are: paid loss development; reported loss development; expected loss emergence based on paid losses; and expected loss emergence based on reported losses. The two methods utilized by Regnier to project loss expenses are: paid expenses-to-paid loss and paid expense-to-ultimate loss.
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Pension Benefit Obligation
The process of estimating our pension benefit obligation and related benefit expense is inherently uncertain, and the actual cost of benefits may vary materially from the estimates recorded. These liabilities are particularly volatile due to their long-term nature and are based on several assumptions. The main assumptions used in the valuation of our benefit obligation are: estimated mortality of the employees and retirees eligible for benefits; estimated expected long-term rates of return on investments; estimated compensation increases; estimated employee turnover; and estimated rate used to discount the ultimate estimated liability to a present value. We engage a consulting actuary from Principal Financial Group, an independent firm, to assist in evaluating and establishing assumptions used in the valuation of our benefit obligations.
A change in any one or more of these assumptions is likely to result in an ultimate liability different from the original actuarial estimate. Such changes in estimates may be material. For example, a 100 basis point decrease in our estimated discount rate would increase the benefit obligation at December 31, 2023 by $28.0 million while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease the benefit obligation by $22.9 million, for the same period.
A 100 basis point decrease in our estimated long-term rate of return on pension plan assets would increase the benefit expense for the year ended December 31, 2023 by $2.6 million, while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease benefit expense by $2.6 million, for the same period.
Recently Issued Accounting Standards
Information specific to accounting standards that we adopted in 2023 or pending accounting standards that we expect to adopt in the future is incorporated by reference from Note 1 "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" contained in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."
ITEM 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Information required by this Item 7A is incorporated by reference from Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" under the headings "Investments" and "Market Risk."
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ITEM 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA
United Fire Group, Inc. Consolidated Balance Sheets
December 31,
(In Thousands, Except Share Data) 2023 2022
Assets
Investments
Fixed maturities
Less: allowance for mortgage loan losses 55 49
Goodwill and net intangible assets 4,615 5,324
Liabilities and stockholders' equity
Liabilities
Stockholders' equity
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax (50,957) (87,496)
The Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements are an integral part of these statements.
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United Fire Group, Inc.
Consolidated Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income
For the Years Ended December 31,
Revenues
Other income (loss) — (295) 207
Benefits, losses and expenses
Other comprehensive income (loss)
Change in liability for underfunded employee benefit plans 18,953 (8,278) 19,633
Total reclassification adjustments, before tax 925 4,924 4,347
Total reclassification adjustments, after tax 731 3,890 3,434
Earnings (loss) per common share:
The Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements are an integral part of these statements.
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United Fire Group, Inc.
Consolidated Statement of Stockholders' Equity
Common Stock
Dividends on common stock ($0.60 per share) — — — (15,064) — (15,064)
Change in net unrealized investment appreciation(1) — — — — (33,301) (33,301)
Change in net unrealized investment appreciation(1) — — — — (138,138) (138,138)
Net income (loss) — $ — $ — $ (29,700) $ — $ (29,700)
Dividends on common stock ($0.64 per share) — — — (16,164) — (16,164)
Change in net unrealized investment appreciation(1) — — — — 21,402 21,402
(1)The change in net unrealized appreciation is net of reclassification adjustments and income taxes.
(2)The change in liability for underfunded employee benefit plans is net of income taxes.
The Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements are an integral part of these statements.
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United Fire Group, Inc.
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
For the Years Ended December 31,
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities
Changes in:
Deferred income taxes — (652) (464)
Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities $ 171,736 $ (1,251) $ 29,917
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Purchase of mortgage loans (8,137) (103) —
Net purchases and sales of property and equipment (10,886) (2,137) (13,976)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Borrowings of long-term debt $ — $ — $ —
Repurchase of common stock — — (2,007)
Supplemental Disclosures of Cash Flow Information
The Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements are an integral part of these statements.
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Index of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements Page
Note 1. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies 72
Note 2. Summary of Investments 79
Note 3. Fair Value of Financial Instruments 86
Note 4. Reinsurance 96
Note 5. Reserves for Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses 98
Note 7. Federal Income Tax 114
Note 8. Employee Benefits 115
Note 9. Stock-Based Compensation 123
Note 10. Segment Information 127
Note 11. Earnings Per Common Share 128
Note 12. Lease Commitments 129
Note 14. Intangible Assets 132
Note 15. Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income 134
Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm (PCAOB ID: 42) 135
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UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC.
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
(Amounts in thousands, except share dataunless otherwise noted)
NOTE 1. SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Nature of Business
United Fire Group, Inc. ("UFG", "United Fire", the "Registrant", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our") and its consolidated subsidiaries and affiliates are engaged in the business of writing property and casualty insurance through a network of independent agencies. Our insurance company subsidiaries are licensed as property and casualty insurers in 50 states, plus the District of Columbia.
Principles of Consolidation
The accompanying Consolidated Financial Statements include United Fire and its wholly owned subsidiaries: United Fire & Casualty Company, United Real Estate Holdings, LLC, Addison Insurance Company, Lafayette Insurance Company, United Fire & Indemnity Company, United Fire Lloyds, UFG Specialty Insurance Company, Financial Pacific Insurance Company, Franklin Insurance Company, Mercer Insurance Company, Mercer Insurance Company of New Jersey, Inc, McIntyre Cedar UK Limited, Mercer Insurance Company and McIntyre Cedar Corporate Member LLP.
United Fire Lloyds, an affiliate of United Fire & Indemnity Company, is organized as a Texas Lloyds plan, which is an aggregation of underwriters who, under a common name, engage in the business of insurance through a corporate attorney-in-fact. United Fire Lloyds is financially and operationally controlled by United Fire & Indemnity Company, its corporate attorney-in-fact, pursuant to three types of agreements: trust agreements between United Fire & Indemnity Company and certain individuals who agree to serve as trustees; articles of agreement among the trustees who agree to act as underwriters to establish how the Lloyds plan will be operated; and powers of attorney from each of the underwriters appointing a corporate attorney-in-fact, who is authorized to operate the Lloyds plan. Because United Fire & Indemnity Company can name the trustees, the Lloyds plan is perpetual, subject only to United Fire & Indemnity Company's desire to terminate it.
United Fire & Indemnity Company provides all of the statutory capital necessary for the formation of the Lloyds plan by contributing capital to each of the trustees. The trust agreements require the trustees to become underwriters of the Lloyds plan, to contribute the capital to the Lloyds plan, to sign the articles of agreement and to appoint the attorney-in-fact. The trust agreements also require the trustees to pay to United Fire & Indemnity Company all of the profits and benefits received by the trustees as underwriters of the Lloyds plan, which means that United Fire & Indemnity Company has the right to receive 100 percent of the gains and profits from the Lloyds plan. The trustees serve at the pleasure of United Fire & Indemnity Company, which may remove a trustee and replace that trustee at any time. Termination of a trustee must be accompanied by the resignation of the trustee as an underwriter, so that the trustee can obtain the capital contribution from the Lloyds plan to reimburse United Fire & Indemnity Company. By retaining the ability to terminate trustees, United Fire & Indemnity Company possesses the ability to name and remove the underwriters.
United Real Estate Holdings, LLC, formed in 2013, is a wholly owned subsidiary of United Fire & Casualty Company and is organized as an Iowa limited liability corporation, an unincorporated association formed for the purpose of holding United Fire & Casualty Company's ownership in commercial real estate.
Basis of Presentation
The accompanying Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared on the basis of U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), which differ in some respects from those followed in preparing our statutory reports to insurance regulatory authorities. Our stand-alone and consolidated subsidiary financial statements submitted to insurance regulatory authorities are presented on the basis of accounting practices prescribed or permitted by the insurance departments of the states in which we are domiciled ("statutory accounting principles").
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Use of Estimates
The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. The financial statement categories that are most dependent on management estimates and assumptions include: investments; deferred policy acquisition costs; reinsurance receivables and recoverables; goodwill impairment; losses and loss settlement expenses; and pension benefit obligations.