ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
We provide readers with the following discussion of risks and uncertainties relevant to our business. These are factors that we believe could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historic or anticipated results. We could also be adversely affected by other factors, in addition to those listed here. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements is set forth in Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations."
Risks Relating to Our Business
Our business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity may continue to be negatively impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a global emergency with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak. Several countries, including the United States, as well as several states within the United States, have initiated travel restrictions and other limitations that have impacted individuals and businesses worldwide. We are closely monitoring developments related to the COVID-19 pandemic to continually assess its impact on our business. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to evolve and have the potential to further materially impact our business, results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, capital position, the value of the investments we hold in our investment portfolio, premiums and demand for our products, and our ability to collect premiums on a timely basis or the requirement to return premiums to policyholders. The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact our business will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted at this time, including the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent of further resurgences, the availability, adoption and effectiveness of a vaccine, the length of time it takes for normal economic and operating conditions to resume, additional governmental actions that may be taken and/or extensions of time for restrictions that have been imposed to date, and numerous other uncertainties. Additionally, if established written contract policy exclusions of business interruption coverage for losses attributable to this COVID-19 pandemic are voided or changed through legislation, regulations or interpretations by the courts, such changes have the potential to materially increase claims, losses and legal expenses which will impact our business, financial condition, results of operations or liquidity. To the extent we experience adverse effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, it may also have the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in this report.
The occurrence, frequency and severity of catastrophe losses are unpredictable and may adversely affect our results of operations, liquidity and financial condition.
Our property and casualty insurance operations expose us to claims arising from catastrophic events affecting multiple policyholders. Such catastrophic events consist of various natural disasters, including, but not limited to, hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, hailstorms, fires and wildfires, earthquakes, severe winter weather, tropical storms, volcanic eruptions and man-made disasters such as terrorist acts (including biological, chemical or radiological events), explosions, infrastructure failures and results from political instability. We have exposure to tropical storms and hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, Eastern and Southeastern coasts of the United States. We have exposure to tornadoes, windstorms and hail storms throughout the United States. We have exposure to earthquakes along the West Coast and the New Madrid Fault area. Our automobile and inland marine business also exposes us to losses arising from floods and other perils.
Property damage resulting from catastrophes is the greatest risk of loss we face in the ordinary course of our business. We have exposure to catastrophe losses under both our commercial insurance policies and our personal insurance policies. The losses from catastrophic events are a function of both the extent of our exposure, the frequency and severity of the events themselves and the level of reinsurance assumed and ceded. For example, the losses experienced from a tornado will vary on whether the location of the tornado was in a highly populated or unpopulated area, the concentration of insureds in that area and the severity of the tornado. Increases in the value and geographic concentration of insured property and the effects of inflation could increase the severity of claims from a catastrophic event.
Long-term weather trends may be changing and new types of catastrophe losses may be developing due to climate change, which is a phenomenon that has been associated with extreme weather events linked to rising temperatures, including effects on global weather patterns, greenhouse gases, sea, land and air temperature, sea levels, rain and snow. Such changes in climate conditions could cause our underlying modeling data to be less accurate, limiting our ability to evaluate and manage our risk. Climate change adds to the unpredictability, frequency and severity of natural disasters and creates additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. We cannot predict the impact that changing climate conditions may have on our results of operations, nor can we predict how any legal, regulatory or social responses to concerns about climate change may impact our business.
In addition, as with catastrophe losses generally, it can take a long time for us to determine our ultimate losses associated with a particular catastrophic event. The inability to access portions of the impacted area, the complexity of the losses, legal and regulatory uncertainty and the nature of the information available for certain catastrophic events may affect our ability to
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estimate the claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. Such complex factors include, but are not limited to: determining the cause of the damage, evaluating general liability exposures, estimating additional living expenses, the impact of demand surge, infrastructure disruption, fraud, business interruption costs and reinsurance collectability.
The timing of a catastrophic occurrence at the end or near the end of a reporting period may also affect the information available to us when estimating claims and claim adjustment expense reserves for the reporting period. As our claims experience for a particular catastrophe develops, we may be required to adjust our reserves to reflect our revised estimates of the total cost of claims. However, because the occurrence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable and may vary significantly from year to year and region to region, historical results of operations may not be indicative of future results of operations.
Catastrophes may reduce our net income, cause substantial volatility in our financial results for any fiscal quarter or year or otherwise adversely affect our financial condition, liquidity or results of operations. Catastrophes may also negatively affect our ability to write new business.
Following catastrophes there are also sometimes legislative, administrative and judicial decisions that seek to expand insurance coverage for claims beyond the original intent of the policies or seek to prevent the application of deductibles. Our ability to manage catastrophic exposure may be limited by public policy considerations, the political environment, changes in the general economic climate and/or social responsibilities.
Our reserves for property and casualty insurance losses and loss settlement expenses are based on estimates and may be inadequate, adversely impacting our financial results.
We maintain insurance reserves to cover our estimated ultimate unpaid liability for claim and claim adjustment expenses, including the estimated cost of the claims adjustment process, for reported and unreported claims and for future policy benefits. Our reserves may prove to be inadequate, which may result in future charges to earnings and/or a downgrade of our financial strength rating or the financial strength ratings of our insurance company subsidiaries.
Insurance reserves represent our best estimate at a given point in time. They are not an exact calculation of liability but instead are complex estimates, which are a product of actuarial expertise and projection techniques from a number of assumptions and expectations about future events, many of which are highly uncertain.
The process of estimating claims and claims adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment. These estimates are based on historical data and the impact of various factors such as: (1) actuarial and statistical projections of the cost of settlement and administration of claims reflecting facts and circumstances then known; (2) historical claims information and loss emergence patterns; (3) assessments of currently available data; (4) estimates of future trends in claims severity and frequency; (5) judicial theories of liability; (6) economic factors such as inflation; (7) estimates and assumptions regarding social, judicial and legislative trends, and actions such as class action lawsuits and judicial interpretation of coverages or policy exclusions; and (8) the level of insurance fraud.
Many of these factors are not quantifiable. The inherent uncertainties of estimating reserves are greater for certain types of liabilities, particularly those in which the various considerations affecting the type of claim are subject to change and in which long periods of time may elapse before a definitive determination of liability is made. Reserve estimates are continually refined in a regular and ongoing process as experience develops and further claims are reported and settled.
Along with other insurers, we use internal and external models in assessing our exposure to catastrophe losses that assume various conditions and probability scenarios; however, these models do not necessarily accurately predict future losses or accurately measure losses currently incurred. Models for catastrophes use historical information about various catastrophes and details about our in-force business. While we use this information in our pricing and risk managements, there are limitations with respect to their usefulness in predicting losses in any reporting period. Such limitations lead to questionable predictive capability and post-event measurements that have not been well understood or proved to be sufficiently reliable. In addition, the models are not necessarily reflective of our state-specific policy language, demand surge for labor and materials or loss settlement expenses, all of which are subject to wide variation.
Actual loss and loss settlement expenses paid might exceed our reserves. If our loss reserves are insufficient, or if we believe our loss reserves are insufficient to cover our actual loss and loss settlement expenses, we will have to increase our loss reserves and incur charges to our earnings, which could indicate that premium levels were insufficient. As such, deviations from one or more of these assumptions could result in a material adverse impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements and our financial strength rating or the financial strength ratings of our insurance company subsidiaries could be downgraded.
For a detailed discussion of our reserving process and the factors we consider in estimating reserves, refer to the "Critical Accounting Policies" section in Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations."
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Our geographic concentration ties our performance to the business, economic and regulatory conditions of certain states.
The following states provided 50.4 percent of the direct statutory premiums written for the property and casualty insurance businesses in 2020: Texas (18.1 percent), California (11.9 percent), Iowa (8.6 percent), Missouri (6.8 percent) and New Jersey (5.0 percent).
Our revenues and profitability are subject to the prevailing regulatory, legal, economic, political, demographic, competitive, weather and other conditions in the principal states in which we do business. With respect to regulatory conditions, the NAIC and state legislators continually reexamine existing laws and regulations, specifically focusing on modifications to holding company regulations, interpretations of existing laws and the development of new laws and regulations. In a time of financial uncertainty or a prolonged economic downturn, regulators may choose to adopt more restrictive insurance laws and regulations. Changes in regulatory or any other of these conditions could make it less attractive for us to do business in such states and would have a more pronounced effect on us compared to companies that are more geographically diversified. In addition, our exposure to severe losses from localized natural perils, such as hurricanes or hailstorms, is increased in those areas where we have written a significant amount of property insurance policies.
Unauthorized data access, cyber attacks and other security breaches could have an adverse impact on our business and reputation.
We rely on computer systems to conduct our business for our customer service, marketing and sales activities, customer relationship management and producing financial statements. Our business and operations rely on secure and efficient processing, storage and transmission of customer and Company data, including personally identifiable information. Our ability to effectively operate our business depends upon our ability, and the ability of certain third party vendors and business partners, to access our computer systems to perform necessary business functions, such as providing quotes and product pricing, billing and processing premiums, administering claims, and reporting our financial results.
We retain confidential information on our computer systems, including customer information and proprietary business information belonging to us and our policyholders. Our business and operations depend upon our ability to safeguard this personally identifiable information. Our systems may be vulnerable to unauthorized access and hackers, computer viruses, and other scenarios in which our data may be compromised.
Cyber attacks involving these systems, or those of our third party vendors, could be carried out remotely and from multiple sources and could interrupt, damage, or otherwise adversely affect the operations of these critical systems. Cyber attacks could result in the modification or theft of data, the distribution of false information, or the denial of service to users. Threats to data security can emerge from a variety of sources and change rapidly, resulting in the ongoing need to expend resources to secure our data in accordance with customer expectations and statutory and regulatory requirements.
Any compromise of the security of our data could expose us to liability and harm our reputation, which could affect our business and results of operations. We continually enhance our operating procedures and internal controls to effectively support our business and comply with our regulatory and financial reporting requirements, but there can be no assurances that we will be able to implement security measures adequate to prevent every security breach.
Although, to date, we do not believe we have experienced any material cyber attacks, the occurrence, scope and effect of any cyber attack may remain undetected for a period of time. We maintain cyber liability insurance coverage that provides both third-party liability and first-party insurance coverages; however, our insurance may be insufficient to cover all losses and expenses related to a cyber attack.
Federal and state policymakers have, and will likely continue to propose increased regulation of the protection of personally identifiable information and appropriate protocols after a related cybersecurity breach. The New York Department of Financial Services recently adopted a cyber protection and reporting regulation for financial services companies with which we are complying. The NAIC has created the Data Security Model Law ("DSML") based upon the New York regulation. Compliance with these regulations and efforts to address continually developing cybersecurity risks may result in a material adverse effect on our results of operations, liquidity, financial condition, and financial strength.
Conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally may weaken materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations.
Our results of operations, financial position and liquidity are materially affected by conditions in the global capital markets and the economy generally, both in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. As a result of such conditions, our policyholders may choose to defer paying insurance premiums or stop paying insurance premiums altogether. In addition, we may experience an elevated incidence of claims and lapses or surrenders of policies causing a change in our exposure.
Factors such as consumer spending, business investment, government spending, the volatility and strength of the capital markets, investor and consumer confidence and inflation levels all affect the business and economic environment and,
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ultimately, the amount and profitability of our business. In an economic downturn characterized by higher unemployment, lower family income, lower corporate earnings, lower business investment, negative investor sentiment and lower consumer spending, the demand for our insurance products could be adversely affected.
The effects of emerging claim and coverage issues and class action litigation on our business are uncertain.
We are subject to certain effects of emerging or potential claims and coverage issues that arise as industry practices and legal, judicial, social, economic and other environmental conditions change, including unexpected and unintended issues related to claims and coverage. These issues may adversely affect our business by either extending coverage beyond our underwriting intent or by increasing the number and/or size of claims, resulting in further increases in our reserves. The effects of these and other unforeseen emerging claim and coverage issues are extremely hard to predict. Examples of these issues include: (1) judicial expansion of policy coverage and the impact of new theories of liability; (2) an increase of plaintiffs targeting property and casualty insurers, including us, in purported class action litigation regarding claims handling and other practices; (3) medical developments that link health issues to particular causes, resulting in liability or workers' compensation (for example, cumulative trauma); (4) claims relating to unanticipated consequences of current or new technologies; (5) an increase in the variety, number and size of claims relating to liability losses, which often present complex coverage and damage valuation questions; (6) claims relating to potentially changing climate conditions, including higher frequency and severity of weather-related events; and (7) adverse changes in loss cost trends, including inflationary pressure in medical cost and auto and home repair costs.
We are subject to certain risks related to our investment portfolio that could negatively affect our profitability.
Investment income is an important component of our net income and overall profitability. We invest premiums received from policyholders and other available cash to generate investment income and capital appreciation, while also maintaining sufficient liquidity to pay covered claims, operating expenses and dividends. As discussed in detail below, general economic conditions, changes in financial markets, global events and many other factors beyond our control can adversely affect the value of our investments and the realization of investment income.
We primarily manage our investment portfolio internally under required statutory guidelines and investment guidelines approved by our Board of Directors and the boards of directors of our subsidiaries. Although these guidelines stress diversification and capital preservation, our investments are subject to a variety of risks discussed as follows.
Credit Risk - The value of our investment in marketable securities is subject to impairment as a result of deterioration in the creditworthiness of the issuer. Such impairments could reduce our net investment income and result in realized investment losses. The vast majority of our investments (99.2% at December 31, 2020) are made in investment-grade securities. Although we try to manage this risk by diversifying our portfolio and emphasizing credit quality, our investments are subject to losses as a result of a general downturn in the economy.
Interest Rate Risk - A significant portion of our investment portfolio (85.0 percent at December 31, 2020) consists of fixed income securities, primarily corporate and municipal bonds (63.2 percent at December 31, 2020). These securities are sensitive to changes in interest rates. An increase in interest rates typically reduces the fair value of fixed income securities, while a decline in interest rates reduces the investment income earned from future investments in fixed income securities. In recent periods, interest rates have been at or near historic lows. It is possible that this trend may continue for a prolonged period of time. We generally hold our fixed income securities to maturity, so our interest rate exposure does not usually result in realized losses. However, rising interest rates could result in a significant reduction of the book value of our fixed maturity investments. Low interest rates, and low investable yields, could adversely impact our net earnings as reinvested funds produce lower investment income. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors beyond our control including general economic conditions, changes in governmental regulations and monetary policy, and national and international political conditions.
Liquidity Risk - We seek to match the maturities of our investment portfolio with the estimated payment date of our loss and loss adjustment expense reserves to ensure strong liquidity and avoid having to liquidate securities to fund claims. Risk such as inadequate loss and loss adjustment reserves or unfavorable trends in litigation could potentially result in the need to sell investments to fund these liabilities. This could result in significant realized losses depending on the conditions of the general market, interest rates and credit profile of individual securities. Further, our investment portfolio is subject to increased valuation uncertainties when investment markets are illiquid. The valuation of investments is more subjective when markets are illiquid, thereby increasing the risk that the estimated fair value (i.e., the carrying amount) of the portion of the investment portfolio that is carried at fair value as reflected in our financial statements is not reflective of prices at which actual transactions could occur.
Market Risk - Our investments are subject to risks inherent in the global financial system and capital markets. The value and risks of our investments may be adversely affected if the functioning of those markets is disrupted or otherwise affected by local, national or international events, such as: changes in regulation or tax policy; changes in legislation relating to bankruptcy
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or other proceedings; infrastructure failures; wars or terrorist attacks; the overall health of global economies; a significant change in inflation expectations; a significant devaluation of government or private sector credit and/or currency values; and other factors or events not specifically attributable to changes in interest rates, credit losses, and liquidity needs.
Credit Spread Risk - Our exposure to credit spreads primarily relates to market price variability and reinvestment risk associated with changes in credit spreads. Valuations may include assumptions or estimates that may have significant period-to-period changes from market volatility, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio is invested substantially in state, municipal and political subdivision bonds. Our fixed maturity investment portfolio could be subject to default or impairment, in particular:
States and local governments have been operating under deficits or projected deficits which may have an impact on the valuation of our municipal bond portfolio.
There is a risk of widespread defaults which may increase if some issuers chose to voluntarily default instead of implementing fiscal measures such as increasing tax rates or reducing spending. Such risk may also increase if there are changes in legislation permitting states, municipalities and political subdivisions to file for bankruptcy protection where they were not permitted to before. Judicial interpretations in such bankruptcy proceedings may also adversely affect the collectability of principal and interest, and/or valuation of our bonds. Changes in tax laws impacting marginal tax rates, exemptions, deductions, credits and/or the preferred tax treatment of municipal obligations could also adversely affect the market value of municipal obligations. Since a large portion of our investment portfolio (41.2 percent at December 31, 2020) is invested in tax-exempt municipal obligations, any such changes in tax law could adversely affect the value of our investment portfolio.
We exercise prudence and significant judgment in analyzing and validating fair values, which are primarily provided by third parties, for securities in our investment portfolio, including those that are not regularly traded in active markets. We also exercise prudence and significant judgment in determining whether the impairment of particular investments is temporary or other-than-temporary. Due to the inherent uncertainties involved in these judgments, we may incur unrealized losses and subsequently conclude that other-than-temporary write downs of our investments are required.
Our success depends primarily on our ability to underwrite risks effectively and adequately price the risks we underwrite.
The results of our operations and our financial condition depend on our ability to underwrite and set premium rates accurately for a wide variety of determinable and indeterminable risks based on available information. Adequate rates are necessary to generate premiums sufficient to pay losses, loss settlement expenses and underwriting expenses and to earn a profit. To price our products accurately, we must collect and properly analyze a substantial amount of data; develop, test and apply appropriate pricing techniques; closely monitor and timely recognize changes in trends; and project both severity and frequency of losses with reasonable accuracy. We could underprice risks which would adversely affect our profit margins. Conversely, we could overprice risks which could reduce our sales volume and competitiveness. Our ability to undertake these efforts successfully, and to price our products accurately, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to: (1) the availability of sufficient reliable data and our ability to properly analyze available data; (2) market and competitive conditions; (3) changes in medical care expenses and restoration costs; (4) our selection and application of appropriate pricing techniques; and (5) changes in the regulatory market, applicable legal liability standards and in the civil litigation system generally.
The cyclical nature of the property and casualty insurance industry may affect our financial performance.
The property and casualty insurance industry is cyclical in nature and has historically been characterized by soft markets (periods of relatively high levels of price competition, less restrictive underwriting standards and generally low premium rates) followed by hard markets (periods of capital shortages resulting in a lack of insurance availability, relatively low levels of price competition, more selective underwriting of risks and relatively high premium rates). During soft markets, we may lose business to competitors offering competitive insurance at lower prices. We may reduce our premiums or limit premium increases leading to a reduction in our profit margins and revenues. We expect these cycles to continue.
The demand for property and casualty insurance can also vary significantly, rising as the overall level of economic activity increases and falling as that activity decreases. Fluctuations in demand and competition could produce underwriting results that would have a negative impact on the results of our operations and financial condition.
A downgrade or a potential downgrade in our financial strength or issuer credit ratings could result in a loss of business and could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Ratings are an important factor in establishing the competitive position of insurance companies. Third-party rating agencies assess and rate the claims-paying ability, capital strength and creditworthiness of insurers and reinsurers based on criteria established by the agencies. A.M. Best rates our property and casualty insurance companies on a group basis. Since 2012, A.M.
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Best has also given an issuer credit rating to our parent holding company. The table below shows the current ratings assigned to our companies by A.M. Best.
Financial Strength Rating Issuer Credit Rating Rating Held Since
Pooled Property and Casualty Companies A a 1994
United Fire Group, Inc. N/A bbb 2012
Financial strength and issuer credit ratings are used by policyholders, insurers, reinsurers and insurance and reinsurance intermediaries as an important means of assessing the financial strength, creditworthiness and quality of insurers and reinsurers. These ratings are not evaluations directed to potential purchasers of our common stock and are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold our common stock. These ratings are subject to change at any time and could be revised downward or revoked at the sole discretion of the rating agency. Downgrades in our financial strength ratings could adversely affect our ability to access the capital markets or could lead to increased borrowing costs in the future. Perceptions of the Company by investors, producers, other businesses and consumers could also be significantly impaired.
We believe that the ratings assigned by A.M. Best are an important factor in marketing our products. Our ability to retain our existing business and to attract new business in our insurance operations depends on our ratings by this agency. Our failure to maintain our ratings, or any other adverse development with respect to our ratings, could cause our current and future independent agents and policyholders to choose to transact their business with more highly rated competitors. If A.M. Best downgrades our ratings or publicly indicates that our ratings are under review, it is likely that we will not be able to compete as effectively with our competitors and our ability to sell insurance policies could decline, leading to a decrease in our premium revenue and earnings. For example, many of our agencies and policyholders have guidelines that require us to have an A.M. Best financial strength rating of "A-" or higher. A reduction of our A.M. Best ratings below "A-" would prevent us from issuing policies to a portion of our current policyholders or other potential policyholders with ratings requirements.
A reduction in our issuer credit rating could limit our ability to access capital markets or significantly increase the cost to us of raising capital. The failure of our insurance company subsidiaries to maintain their current ratings could dissuade a lender or reinsurance company from conducting business with us. A ratings downgrade could also cause some of our existing liabilities to be subject to acceleration, additional collateral support, changes in terms, or creation of additional financial obligations. It might also increase our interest or reinsurance costs.
We are exposed to credit risk in certain areas of our operations.
In addition to exposure to credit risk related to our investment portfolio, we are exposed to credit risk in several other areas of our business operations, including from: (1) our reinsurers, who are obligated to us under our reinsurance agreements. See the risk factor titled "Market conditions may affect our access to and the cost of reinsurance and our reinsurers may not pay losses in a timely manner, or at all," for a discussion of the credit risk associated with our reinsurance program; (2) some of our independent agents, who collect premiums from policyholders on our behalf and are required to remit the collected premiums to us; (3) some of our policyholders, which may be significant; and (4) our surety insurance operations, where we guarantee to a third party that our bonded principal will satisfy certain performance obligations (for example, as in a construction contract) or certain financial obligations. If our policyholder defaults, we may suffer losses and be unable to be reimbursed by our policyholder.
To a large degree, the credit risk we face is a function of the economy; accordingly, we face a greater risk during periods of economic downturn. While we attempt to manage these risks through underwriting and investment guidelines, collateral requirements and other oversight mechanisms, our efforts may not be successful. For example, collateral obtained may subsequently have little or no value. As a result, our exposure to credit risk could materially and adversely affect our results of operation and financial condition.
We are subject to comprehensive laws and regulations, changes to which may have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Insurance is a highly regulated industry. We are subject to extensive supervision and regulation by the states in which we operate. As a public company, we are also subject to increased regulation at the federal level. Our ability to comply with these laws and regulations and obtain necessary and timely regulatory action is, and will continue to be, critical to our success and ability to earn profits. Examples of regulations that pose particular risks to our ability to earn profits are discussed as follows.
Required licensing. Our insurance company subsidiaries operate under licenses issued by various state insurance departments. If a regulatory authority were to revoke an existing license or deny or delay granting a new license, our ability to continue to sell insurance or to enter or offer new insurance products in that market would be substantially impaired.
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Regulation of insurance rates, fees and approval of policy forms. The insurance laws of most states in which we operate require insurance companies to file insurance premium rate schedules and policy forms for review and approval. When our loss ratio compares favorably to that of the industry, state regulatory authorities may resist or delay our efforts to raise premium rates, even if the property and casualty industry generally is not experiencing regulatory resistance to premium rate increases. If premium rate increases we deem necessary are not approved, we may not be able to respond to market developments and increased costs in that state. State regulatory authorities may even impose premium rate rollbacks or require us to pay premium refunds to policyholders, affecting our profitability. If insurance policy forms we seek to use are not approved by state insurance departments, our ability to offer new products and grow our business in that state could be substantially impaired.
Restrictions on cancellation, nonrenewal or withdrawal. Many states have laws and regulations restricting an insurance company's ability to cease or significantly reduce its sales of certain types of insurance in that state, except pursuant to a plan that is approved by the state insurance departments. These laws and regulations could limit our ability to exit or reduce our business in unprofitable markets or discontinue unprofitable products. Additionally, our ability to adjust terms or increase pricing requires approval of regulatory authorities in certain states.
Risk-based capital and capital adequacy requirements. Our insurance company subsidiaries and affiliate are subject to risk-based capital requirements that require us to report our results of risk-based capital calculations to state insurance departments and the NAIC. These standards apply specified risk factors to various asset, premium and reserve components of statutory capital and surplus reported in our statutory basis of accounting financial statements. Any failure to meet applicable risk-based capital requirements or minimum statutory capital requirements could subject us or our subsidiaries and affiliate to further examination or corrective action by state regulators, including limitations on our writing of additional business, state supervision or liquidation.
Transactions between insurance companies and their affiliates. Transactions between us, our insurance company subsidiaries and our affiliates generally must be disclosed to, and in some cases approved by, state insurance departments. State insurance departments may refuse to approve or delay their approval of a transaction, which may impact our ability to innovate or operate efficiently.
Required participation in guaranty funds and assigned risk pools. Certain states have enacted laws that require a property and casualty insurer conducting business in that state to participate in assigned risk plans, reinsurance facilities, and joint underwriting associations where participating insurers are required to provide coverage for assigned risks. The number of risks assigned to us by these plans is based on our share of total premiums written in the voluntary insurance market for that state. Pricing is controlled by the plan, often restricting our ability to charge the premium rate we might otherwise charge. Wherever possible, we utilize a designated servicing carrier to fulfill our obligations under these plans. Designated servicing carriers charge us fees to issue policies, adjust and settle claims and handle administrative reporting on our behalf. In these markets, we may be compelled to underwrite significant amounts of business at lower than desired premium rates, possibly leading to an unacceptable return on equity. While these facilities are generally designed so that the ultimate cost is borne by policyholders, the exposure to assessments and our ability to recoup these assessments through adequate premium rate increases may not offset each other in our financial statements. Moreover, even if they do offset each other, they may not offset each other in our financial statements for the same fiscal period, due to the ultimate timing of the assessments and recoupments or premium rate increases. Additionally, certain states require insurers to participate in guaranty funds to bear a portion of the unfunded obligations of impaired or insolvent insurance companies. These state funds periodically assess losses against all insurance companies doing business in the state. Our operating results and financial condition could be adversely affected by any of these factors.
Restrictions on the amount, type, nature, quality and concentration of investments. The various states in which we are domiciled have certain restrictions on the amount, type, nature, quality and concentration of our investments. Generally speaking, these regulations require us to be conservative in the nature and quality of our investments and restrict our ability to invest in riskier, but often higher yield investments. These restrictions may make it more difficult for us to obtain our desired investment results.
We benefit from certain tax items, including but not limited to, tax-exempt bond interest, dividends-received deductions, tax credits (such as foreign tax credits) and insurance reserve deductions. From time to time, the U.S. Congress, as well as foreign, state and local governments, considers legislation that could reduce or eliminate the benefits associated with these tax items. Recent federal tax reform may negatively impact our ability to take deductions that we made in the past.
Terrorism Risk Insurance. The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015 ("TRIPRA") was signed into law. TRIPRA, which extended the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program until December 31, 2020, gradually increased the coverage trigger for shared terrorism losses between the federal government and the insurance industry to $200 billion per year, and gradually increased the industry-wide retention to $37.5 billion per year. For further information about TRIPRA and its effect on our operations, refer to the information in the "Results of Operations for the Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019
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and 2018" section in Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations."
Accounting standards. We prepare our consolidated financial statements in conformity with GAAP, which is periodically revised and/or expanded by recognized authoritative bodies, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board ("FASB"). These principles are subject to interpretation by the SEC and various other bodies formed to interpret and create appropriate accounting principles and guidance. Changes in GAAP and financial reporting requirements, or the interpretation of GAAP or those requirements, may have an impact on the content and presentation of our financial results and could have adverse consequences on our financial results, including lower reported results of operations and shareholders' equity and increased volatility and decreased comparability of our reported results with our historic results and with the results of other insurers. In addition, the required adoption of new accounting standards may result in significant incremental costs associated with initial implementation of and ongoing compliance with those standards. Additional information regarding recently proposed and adopted accounting standards and their potential impact on us is set forth in Note 1 “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” to Part II, Item 8, “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.”
Corporate Governance and Public Disclosure Regulation. Changing laws, regulations and standards relating to corporate governance and public disclosure, including Dodd-Frank, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and related SEC regulations, as well as the listing standards of the Nasdaq stock market, have created and are continuing to create uncertainty for public companies. The Federal Insurance Office, established within the U.S. Department of the Treasury by Dodd Frank in 2010, has limited regulatory authority and is empowered to gather data and information regarding the insurance industry and insurers, monitor aspects of the insurance industry, identify issues with regulation of insurers that could contribute to a systemic crisis in the insurance industry or the overall financial system, coordinate federal policy on international insurance matters and preempt state insurance measures under certain circumstances. While certain details and much of the impact of Dodd-Frank are still unknown, Dodd-Frank and other federal regulation adopted in the future may impose burdens on us, including impacting the ways we conduct our business, increasing compliance costs and duplicating state regulation. Additional regulation under these laws in the area of compensation disclosure, particularly regarding internal pay equity, officer and director hedging activities and compensation clawback policies is still expected.
Information Privacy Regulation. We are required to safeguard the personal information of our customers and applicants and are subject to an increasing number of laws and regulations regarding privacy and data security, as well as in our contractual commitments with service providers. We could be subject to governmental enforcement actions and fines, penalties, litigation, or public statements against us by consumer advocacy groups if personal information is not appropriately controlled. Strategic service providers may refuse to continue to do business with us if we do not meet particular standards.
Compliance with these laws and regulations requires us to incur administrative costs that decrease our profits. These laws and regulations may also prevent or limit our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately, obtain timely premium rate increases necessary to cover increased costs, discontinue unprofitable relationships or exit unprofitable markets and otherwise continue to operate our business profitably. In addition, our failure to comply with these laws and regulations could result in actions by state or federal regulators, including the imposition of fines and penalties or, in an extreme case, revocation of our ability to do business in one or more states. Finally, we could face individual, group and class action lawsuits by our policyholders and others for alleged violations of certain state laws and regulations. Each of these regulatory risks could have a negative effect on our profitability.
Market conditions may affect our access to and the cost of reinsurance and our reinsurers may not pay losses in a timely manner, or at all.
As part of our overall risk and capacity management strategy, we purchase reinsurance for significant amounts of the risk that we and our insurance company subsidiaries and affiliates underwrite, by transferring (or ceding) part of the risk we have assumed to a reinsurance company in exchange for part of the premium we receive in connection with the risk. These reinsurance arrangements diversify our business and reduce our exposure to large losses or from hazards of an unusual nature. As of December 31, 2020, we ceded premiums written of $88.3 million to our reinsurers.
Although reinsurance makes the reinsurer liable to us to the extent the risk is transferred, it does not eliminate our liability to our policyholders because we remain liable as the direct insurer on all of the reinsured risks. As a result we are subject to credit risk relating to our ability to recover amounts due from our reinsurers.
Our ability to collect reinsurance recoverables may be subject to uncertainty. Our losses must meet the qualifying conditions of the reinsurance agreement. Our reinsurance agreements are subject to specified limits and we would not have reinsurance coverage to the extent that it exceeds those limits. We are also subject to the risk that reinsurers may dispute their obligations to pay our claims. Reinsurers must have the financial capacity and willingness to make payments under the terms of a reinsurance agreement or program. Reinsurers may dispute amounts we believe are due to us. Particularly, following a major catastrophic
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event, our inability to collect a material recovery from a reinsurer on a timely basis, or at all, could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial condition.
Market conditions determine the availability and cost of the reinsurance protection we purchase, which affects the level of our business profitability, as well as the level and types of risk we retain. Although we purposely work with several reinsurance intermediaries and reinsurers, we may be unable to maintain our current reinsurance facilities or obtain other reinsurance facilities in adequate amounts and at favorable premium rates. Moreover, there may be a situation in which we have more than two catastrophic events within one policy year. Because our current catastrophe reinsurance program only allows for one automatic reinstatement at an additional reinstatement premium, we would be required to obtain a new catastrophe reinsurance policy to maintain our current level of catastrophe reinsurance coverage. Such coverage may be difficult to obtain, particularly if it is necessary to do so during hurricane season following the second catastrophe. If we are unable to renew our expiring facilities or to obtain new reinsurance facilities, either our net exposure to risk will increase or, if we are unwilling to bear an increase in net risk exposures, we will have to reduce the amount of risk we underwrite.
We face significant competitive pressures in our business that could cause demand for our products to fall or hinder our ability to introduce new products or services and keep pace with advances in technology, reducing our revenue and profitability.
The insurance industry is highly competitive and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. In our property and casualty insurance business we compete, and will continue to compete, with many major U.S. and non-U.S. insurers and smaller regional companies, as well as mutual companies, specialty insurance companies, underwriting agencies, and diversified financial services companies, including banks, mutual funds, broker-dealers and asset-managers. Except for regulatory considerations, there are few barriers to entry in the insurance market. These developments may increase competition, by increasing the number, size and financial strength of competitors who may be able to offer, due to economies of scale, more competitive pricing than we can.
Our competitors may attempt to increase their market share by lowering rates. In that case, we could experience reductions in our underwriting margins or sales of insurance policies. Losing business to competitors offering similar products at lower prices or who have a competitive advantage may adversely affect the results of our operations. Additionally, economic conditions may reduce the total volume of business available to us and our competitors.
We price our insurance products based on estimated profit margins, and we may not be able to react in a timely manner to reprice our insurance products to respond to changes in the market. Some of our competitors may be larger and have far greater financial, technology and marketing resources than we do. If new or existing competitors decide to target our policyholder base by offering similar or enhanced product offerings or technologies at lower prices than we are able to offer, our premium revenue and our profitability could decline.
Our products are marketed exclusively through independent insurance agencies, most of which represent more than one company. We face competition within each agency and competition to retain qualified independent agents. Our competitors include companies that market their products through agents, as well as companies that sell insurance directly to their customers. In personal insurance, the use of comparative rating technologies has impacted our business and may continue to impact the entire industry. This has resulted in an increase in the total level of quote activity but a lower percentage of quotes have resulted in new business from customers. There is also the potential for similar technology to be used to compare rates for small business.
The successful implementation of our business model depends on our ability to adapt to evolving technologies and industry standards and introduce new products and services. There is no guarantee we will be able to introduce new or improved products, or that our products will achieve market acceptance. We may also not be successful in using new technologies effectively or adapting our proprietary technology to evolving customer requirements, causing our products or services to become obsolete.
Technology may be increasingly playing a role in our ability to be competitive. Innovations such as telematics and other usage-based methods of determining premiums may impact product design and pricing and may be an increasingly important factor in our ability to be competitive. Our competitive position may also be impacted by our ability to institute technology that collects and analyzes a wide variety of data points to make underwriting or other decisions.
Our business depends on the uninterrupted operations of our facilities, systems and business functions.
Our business depends on our employees' or vendors' ability to perform necessary business functions, such as processing new and renewal policies, providing customer service, making claims payments, facilitating collections and cancellations and performing actuarial functions necessary for pricing and product development. We increasingly rely on technology and systems to accomplish these business functions in an efficient and uninterrupted fashion. Our inability to access our facilities or a failure of technology, telecommunications or other systems could significantly impair our ability to perform such functions on a timely
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basis or affect the accuracy of transactions. If sustained or repeated, such a business interruption or system failure could result in a deterioration of our ability to write and process new and renewal business, serve our agents and policyholders or perform other necessary business functions as discussed above.
If a natural disaster or a terrorist act occurs, our company and employees could be directly adversely affected, depending on the nature of the event. We have an emergency preparedness plan that consists of the information and procedures required to enable rapid recovery from an occurrence, such as natural disaster or business disruption, which could potentially disable us for an extended period of time. This plan was successfully tested during 2016 by the Midwest flooding that affected our corporate headquarters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 that affected our Gulf Coast regional office in Galveston, Texas. It was also tested, to a lesser extent, by Super Storm Sandy in 2012 that affected our East Coast regional office in Pennington, New Jersey.
Adverse capital and credit market conditions may significantly affect our ability to meet liquidity needs, as well as our access to and the cost of capital.
Although capital market conditions have improved, our results of operations, financial condition, cash flows and statutory capital position could be materially adversely affected by continued volatility, uncertainty and disruptions in the capital and credit markets.
We maintain a level of cash and securities which, combined with expected cash inflows from investments and operations, is believed adequate to meet anticipated short-term and long-term benefit and expense payment obligations. The availability of financing will depend on a variety of factors such as market conditions, the general availability of credit, the volume of trading activities, the overall availability of credit to the financial services industry, our credit ratings and credit capacity as well as customers' or lenders' perception of our long- or short-term financial prospects. Similarly, our access to funds may be impaired if regulatory authorities or rating agencies take negative actions against us.
Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility in the capital and credit markets may limit our access to capital required to operate our business. Such market conditions may limit our ability to replace, in a timely manner, maturing liabilities; satisfy statutory capital requirements; and access the capital necessary to grow our business. As such, we may be forced to delay raising capital, issue shorter term securities than we prefer, utilize available internal resources or bear an unattractive cost of capital, which could decrease our profitability and significantly reduce our financial flexibility and liquidity.
We may experience difficulty in integrating future acquisitions to our operations.
The successful integration of any newly acquired businesses into our operations will require, among other things: (1) the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; (2) the retention and assimilation of their key management, sales and other personnel; (3) the coordination of their lines of insurance products and services; (4) the adaptation of their technology, information systems and other processes; and (5) the retention and transition of their customers.
Unexpected difficulties in integrating any acquisition could result in increased expenses and the diversion of management time and resources. If we do not successfully integrate any acquired business into our operations, we may not realize the anticipated benefits of the acquisition, which could have a material adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations. Further, any potential acquisitions may require significant capital outlays and, if we issue equity or convertible debt securities to pay for an acquisition, the issuance may be dilutive to our existing shareholders.
The exclusions and limitations in our policies may not be enforceable.
Many of the policies we issue include exclusions and other conditions that define and limit coverage, which exclusions and conditions are designed to manage our exposure to certain types of risks and expanding theories of legal liability. In addition, many of our policies limit the period during which a policyholder may bring a claim under the policy, which period in many cases is shorter than the statutory period under which these claims can be brought by our policyholders. While these exclusions and limitations help us assess and control our loss exposure, it is possible that a court or regulatory authority could nullify or void an exclusion or limitation, or legislation could be enacted which modifies or bars the use of these exclusions and limitations. This could result in higher than anticipated losses by extending coverage beyond the intent of our underwriting. In some instances, these changes may not become apparent until sometime after we have issued the insurance policies that are affected by these changes. As a result, the full extent of liability under our insurance contracts may not be known for many years after a policy is issued.
The determination of the amount of impairments taken on our investments requires estimates and assumptions which are subject to differing interpretations and could materially impact our results of operations or financial position.
The determination of the amount of impairments varies by investment type and is based upon our periodic evaluation and assessment of known and inherent risks associated with the respective asset class. Such evaluations and assessments are revised
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as conditions change and new information becomes available. There can be no assurance that our management has accurately assessed the level of impairments taken in our financial statements. Furthermore, additional impairments may need to be taken in the future. Historical trends may not be indicative of future impairments.
Additionally, our management considers a wide range of factors about the instrument issuer and uses its best judgment in evaluating the cause of the decline in the estimated fair value of the instrument and in assessing the prospects for recovery. Inherent in management's evaluation of the security are assumptions and estimates about the operations of the issuer and its future earnings potential.
Risks Relating to Our Common Stock
Certain provisions of our organizational documents, as well as applicable insurance laws, could impede an attempt to replace or remove our management or members of our Board of Directors, prevent the sale of the Company or prevent or frustrate any attempt by shareholders to change the direction of the Company, each of which could diminish the value of our common stock.
Our articles of incorporation and bylaws, as well as applicable laws governing corporations and insurance companies, contain provisions that could impede an attempt to replace or remove our management or prevent the sale of the Company that, in either case, shareholders might consider being in their best interests.
Our Board of Directors is divided into three classes. At any annual meeting of our shareholders, our shareholders have the right to appoint approximately one-third of the directors on our Board of Directors. Consequently, it will take at least two annual shareholder meetings to effect a change in control of our Board of Directors.
Our articles of incorporation limit the rights of shareholders to call special shareholder meetings.
Our articles of incorporation set the minimum number of directors constituting the entire Board of Directors at nine and the maximum at 15, and they require approval of holders of 60.0 percent of all outstanding shares to amend these provisions. Within the range, the Board of Directors may increase by one each year the number of directors serving on the Board of Directors.
Our articles of incorporation require the affirmative vote of 60.0 percent of all outstanding shares to approve any plan of merger, consolidation, or sale or exchange of all, or substantially all, of our assets.
Our Board of Directors may fill vacancies on the Board of Directors.
Our Board of Directors has the authority, without further approval of our shareholders, to issue shares of preferred stock having such rights, preferences and privileges as the Board of Directors may determine.
Section 490.1110 of the Iowa Business Corporation Act imposes restrictions on mergers and other business combinations between us and any holder of 10.0 percent or more of our common stock.
Section 490.624A of the Iowa Business Corporation Act authorizes the terms and conditions of stock rights or options issued by us to include restrictions or conditions that preclude or limit the exercise, transfer, or receipt of such rights or options by a person, or group of persons, owning or offering to acquire a specified number or percentage of the outstanding common shares or other securities of the corporation.
Further, the insurance laws of Iowa and the states in which our insurance company subsidiaries are domiciled prohibit any person from acquiring direct or indirect control of us or our insurance company subsidiaries, generally defined as owning or having the power to vote 10.0 percent or more of our outstanding voting stock, without the prior written approval of state regulators.
These provisions of our articles of incorporation and bylaws, and these state laws governing corporations and insurance companies, may discourage potential acquisition proposals. These provisions and state laws may also delay, deter or prevent a change of control of the Company, in particular through unsolicited transactions that some or all of our shareholders might consider to be desirable. As a result, efforts by our shareholders to change the direction or the Company's management may be unsuccessful, and the existence of such provisions may adversely affect market prices for our common stock if they are viewed as discouraging takeover attempts.
The ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends may affect our liquidity and ability to meet our obligations.
As a holding company, we have no significant independent operations of our own. Our principal sources of funds are dividends and other payments received from our subsidiaries. We rely on those dividends for our liquidity and to meet our obligations to pay dividends to shareholders and make share repurchases. Dividends from those subsidiaries depend on their statutory surplus, earnings and regulatory restrictions.
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State insurance laws limit the ability of insurance subsidiaries to pay dividends and require our insurance subsidiaries to maintain specified minimum levels of statutory capital and surplus. The actual ability to pay dividends may further be constrained by business and regulatory considerations, such as the impact of dividends on surplus, by our competitive position and by the amount of premiums that we can write. Ordinary dividend payments, or dividends that do not require prior approval by the insurance subsidiaries' domiciliary state insurance regulator are generally limited to amounts determined by a formula which varies by jurisdiction. Extraordinary dividends, on the other hand, require prior regulatory approval by the insurance subsidiaries' domiciliary state insurance regulator before they can be made.
In addition, competitive pressures generally require insurance companies to maintain insurance financial strength ratings. These restrictions and other regulatory requirements affect the ability of our insurance subsidiaries to make dividend payments to us. At times we may not be able to pay dividends on our common stock, or we may be required to seek prior approval from the applicable regulatory authority before we can pay any such dividends. In addition, the payment of dividends by us is within the discretion of our Board of Directors and will depend on numerous factors, including our financial condition, our capital requirements and other factors that our Board of Directors considers relevant.
General Risk Factors
Our internal controls are not fail-safe.
As a result of the inherent limitations in all control systems, no system of controls can provide absolute assurance that all control objectives have been or will be met, and that every instance of error or fraud has been or will be detected. A control system, no matter how well conceived and operated, can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the objectives of the control system will be met. These inherent limitations include the realities that judgments in decision-making can be faulty and that breakdowns can occur because of a simple error or mistake.
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ITEM 1B. UNRESOLVED STAFF COMMENTS
None.
ITEM 2. PROPERTIES
Our headquarters are located in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where we own approximately 269,000 square feet of office and building space. In addition, we own and lease office and building space, including underwriting and claims offices, throughout the U.S. We believe our existing facilities, both owned and leased, are in good condition and suitable for the conduct of our business.
ITEM 3. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS
In the normal course of its business, the Company is a party to a variety of legal proceedings. While the final outcome of these legal proceedings cannot be predicted with certainty, management believes all of the proceedings pending as of December 31, 2020 to be ordinary and routine and does not expect these legal proceedings to have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial position or results of operations.
ITEM 4. MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES
Not applicable.
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PART II.
ITEM 5. MARKET FOR REGISTRANT'S COMMON EQUITY, RELATED SHAREHOLDER MATTERS AND ISSUER PURCHASES OF EQUITY SECURITIES
Common Shareholders
United Fire Group, Inc.'s common stock is traded on the NASDAQ stock market under the symbol "UFCS." On February 24, 2021, there were 710 holders of record of United Fire Group, Inc. common stock. The number of record holders does not reflect shareholders who beneficially own common stock in nominee or street name, but does include participants in our employee stock purchase plan.
Dividends
Our practice has been to pay quarterly cash dividends, which we have paid every quarter since March 1968.
As a holding company with no independent operations of its own, United Fire Group, Inc. relies on dividends received from its insurance company subsidiaries in order to pay dividends to its common shareholders. Dividends payable by our insurance subsidiaries are governed by the laws in the states in which they are domiciled. In all cases, these state laws permit the payment of dividends only from earned surplus arising from business operations. For example, under Iowa law, the maximum dividend or distribution that may be paid within a 12-month period without prior approval of the Iowa Insurance Commissioner is generally restricted to the greater of 10 percent of statutory surplus as of the preceding December 31, or net income of the preceding calendar year on a statutory basis, not greater than earned statutory surplus. Other states in which our insurance company subsidiaries are domiciled may impose similar restrictions on dividends and distributions. Based on these restrictions, at December 31, 2020, our insurance company subsidiary, United Fire & Casualty, is able to make a maximum of $66.8 million in dividend payments without prior regulatory approval.
Payments of any future dividends and the amounts of such dividends will depend upon factors such as net income, financial condition, capital requirements, and general business conditions. We will only pay dividends if declared by our Board of Directors out of legally available funds and there can be no assurance that we will continue to pay such dividends or the amount of such dividends.
Additional information about these restrictions is incorporated by reference from Note 6 "Statutory Reporting, Capital Requirements and Dividends and Retained Earnings Restrictions" contained in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."
Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities
Under our share repurchase program, we may purchase our common stock from time to time on the open market or through privately negotiated transactions. The amount and timing of any purchases will be at our discretion and will depend upon a number of factors, including the share price, general economic and market conditions, and corporate and regulatory requirements. Our share repurchase program may be modified or discontinued at any time.
The following table provides information with respect to purchases of shares of common stock made by or on our behalf or by any "affiliated purchaser," as defined in Rule 10b-18(a)(3) under the Exchange Act, during the year ended December 31, 2020:
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(1) Our share repurchase program was originally announced in August 2007. In August 2016, our Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional 1,500,000 shares of common stock through the end of August 2018. This is in addition to the 1,528,886 shares of common stock remaining under its previous authorizations. In August 2018, our Board of Directors extended our share repurchase program through the end of August 2020. In August 2020, our Board of Directors extended our share repurchase program through the end of August 2022. As of December 31, 2020, we remained authorized to repurchase 1,786,977 shares of common stock.
United Fire Group, Inc. Common Stock Performance Graph
The following graph compares the performance of an investment in United Fire Group Inc.'s common stock from December 31, 2015 through December 31, 2020, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ("S&P 500 Index"), and the Standard & Poor's 600 Property and Casualty Index ("S&P 600 P&C Index"). The graph assumes $100 was invested on December 31, 2015 in our common stock and each of the below listed indices and that all dividends were reinvested on the date of payment without payment of any commissions. Dollar amounts in the graph are rounded to the nearest whole dollar. The performance shown in the graph represents past performance and should not be considered an indication of future performance.
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The following table shows the data used in the total return performance graph above.
Period Ended
The foregoing performance graph is being furnished as part of this Annual Report on Form 10-K solely in accordance with the requirement under Rule 14a-3(b)(9) to furnish our shareholders with such information, and therefore, shall not be deemed to be filed or incorporated by reference into any filings by the Company under the Securities Act or Exchange Act.
ITEM 6. SELECTED FINANCIAL DATA
The following table sets forth certain selected financial data derived from the Consolidated Financial Statements of United Fire Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries and affiliates. The data should be read in conjunction with Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" and Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."
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(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)
Balance Sheet Data:
Total assets
Total liabilities
Income Statement Data from Continuing Operations:
Revenues
Other income 6,270 — — — —
Goodwill Impairment 15,091 — — — —
Income Statement Data from Discontinued Operations:
Increase in liability for future policy benefits — — 5,023 27,632 59,969
Earnings Per Share Data:
Continuing operations:
Discontinued operations:
Basic earnings (loss) per common share — — (0.08) 0.24 0.03
Diluted earnings (loss) per common share — — (0.07) 0.24 0.03
Other Supplemental Data:
(1)The combined ratio is a commonly used financial measure of property and casualty underwriting performance. A combined ratio below 100.0 percent generally indicates a profitable book of business.
(2)On August 20, 2018, a special dividend of $3.00 per share was paid to shareholders.
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ITEM 7.MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation should be read in conjunction with Part II, Item 6, "Selected Financial Data" and Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." Amounts (except per share amounts) are presented in thousands, unless otherwise noted.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
It is important to note that our actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements in this Form 10-K. Please refer to "Forward-Looking Information" and Part I, Item 1A, "Risk Factors" of this report for information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this Form 10-K.
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Originally founded in 1946 as United Fire & Casualty Company, United Fire Group, Inc. and its consolidated insurance company subsidiaries provide insurance protection for individuals and businesses through several regional companies. Our property and casualty insurance company subsidiaries are licensed in 49 states plus the District of Columbia and are represented by approximately 1,000 independent agencies.
Discontinued Operations
On September 18, 2017, the Company signed a definitive agreement to sell its subsidiary, United Life, to Kuvare and on March 30, 2018, the sale closed. As a result, our life insurance business, previously a separate segment, was considered held for sale and reported as discontinued operations in the Consolidated Financial Statements. All periods presented have been revised to show results from continuing and discontinued operations, unless otherwise noted. For more information, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 17 "Discontinued Operations."
Reportable Segments
Prior to the announcement of the sale of our life insurance business, we have historically reported our operations in two business segments, each with a wide range of products:
•property and casualty insurance, which includes commercial lines insurance, personal lines insurance and assumed reinsurance; and
•life insurance, which includes deferred and immediate annuities, universal life products and traditional life (primarily single premium whole life) insurance products.
We managed these businesses separately, as they generally do not share the same customer base, and each has different products, pricing, and expense structures.
Subsequent to the announcement of the sale of our life insurance business on September 19, 2017, we operate and report one business segment, which contains our continuing operations. Our life insurance business was considered held for sale and reported as discontinued operations throughout this Form 10-K, unless otherwise noted. For more information, refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 10 "Segment Information" and Note 17 "Discontinued Operations."
Pooling Arrangement
All of our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are members of an intercompany reinsurance pooling arrangement. The Company's pooling arrangement permits the participating companies to rely on the capacity of the entire pool's capital and surplus, rather than being limited to policy exposures of a size commensurate with each participant’s own surplus level.
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Geographic Concentration
Continuing Operations - Property and Casualty Insurance Business
For 2020, approximately 50.4 percent of our property and casualty premiums were written in Texas, California, Iowa, Missouri and New Jersey.
In 2020, 2019 and 2018 the direct statutory premiums written by our property and casualty insurance operations were distributed as follows:
Years Ended December 31, % of Total
Discontinued Operations - Life Insurance Business
Our life insurance subsidiary marketed its products primarily in the Midwest, East Coast and West. In 2020, 2019 and 2018 the direct statutory premiums written by our life insurance operations were distributed as follows:
Years Ended December 31, % of Total
Direct Statutory Premiums Written $ — $ — $ 31,763 — % — % 100.0 %
Sources of Revenue and Expense
We evaluate profit or loss based upon operating and investment results. Profit or loss described in the following sections of this Management's Discussion and Analysis is reported on a pre-tax basis. Our primary sources of revenue are premiums and investment income. Major categories of expenses include losses and loss settlement expenses, underwriting and other operating expenses.
Profit Factors
Our profitability is influenced by many factors, including price, competition, economic conditions, investment returns, interest rates, catastrophic events and other natural disasters, man-made disasters, state regulations, court decisions, and changes in the law. To manage these risks and uncertainties, we seek to achieve consistent profitability through strong agency relationships, exceptional customer service, fair and prompt claims handling,
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disciplined underwriting, superior loss control services, prudent management of our investments, appropriate matching of assets and liabilities, effective use of ceded reinsurance and effective and efficient use of technology.
COVID-19
The spread of the COVID-19 virus, beginning in mid-March 2020, caused significant financial market volatility, economic uncertainty and interruptions to normal business activities. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on day-to-day life, financial markets and the economy in the United States. The Company, in response to the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, activated its pre-existing business continuity plans to respond to a pandemic in mid-March 2020. With the exception of our essential services employees, UFG has dispatched its staff to work remotely for the safety, health and well-being of our employees. We are fully operational, but have limited some non-essential travel. Our essential services employees are following recommended health and safety policies. We are and will continue to monitor the state and federal responses to the pandemic and, when appropriate, will adjust our operations in response. We have a return to workplace plan for our employees. The plan will be implemented at the appropriate time and in a way that is designed to ensure the health and safety of our employees.
The implementation of our business continuity plans did not have a material effect on our internal control environment. We believe our operational processes, internal controls over financial reporting and disclosures, and financial reporting systems are operating effectively in the present environment. Our business teams are working remotely and continue to support our customers, agents and claimants as they did when we were in the office.
Nearly all of the policies we have issued contain contract language that specifically excludes business interruption coverage for losses due to viruses such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but we continue to carefully scrutinize each claim and will afford coverage when appropriate. At this time, we expect the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on claims currently under our coverages to be manageable, based on the information presently available. However, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to evolve and we cannot predict the extent to which our business, results of operations, financial condition or liquidity will ultimately be impacted. Additionally, if established written contract policy exclusions of business interruption coverage for losses attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic are voided or changed through legislation, regulations or interpretations by the courts, such changes have the potential to materially increase claims, losses and legal expenses which could impact our business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
We anticipate that the larger impact on our financial condition and results of operations will likely result from developments in the economy as a whole and the effect on financial markets and the investments we hold in our investment portfolio, premiums and demand for our products, and our ability to collect premiums or any requirement to return premiums to policyholders. We believe our current liquidity position is sufficient to maintain our current operations and we have the ability to draw on our credit facility if needed. See "Credit Facilities" in Part II, Item 8, Note 14 "Debt" for more information. We implemented state-mandated and optional payment leniency programs for our policyholders, all of which have expired as of December 31, 2020. As of December 31, 2020, we did not see a significant impact to cash flows or allowance for doubtful accounts as a result of these programs. During the fourth quarter of 2020, management did not repurchase any shares of stock, and the share repurchase program has been suspended since mid-March 2020. Also, the Company maintained the payment of quarterly cash dividends during 2020, with fourth quarter of 2020 marking the 211th consecutive quarter of paying dividends since March 1968.
Stockholders' equity decreased to $825.1 million at December 31, 2020, from $910.5 million at December 31, 2019. This decrease was primarily attributed to a net loss of $112.7 million, shareholder dividends of $28.5 million and share repurchases of $2.7 million, partially offset by an increase in net unrealized investment gains on fixed maturity securities of $35.8 million, net of tax, during 2020 and a decrease in our pension and post-retirement liabilities of $17.9 million, net of tax.
We evaluate goodwill and other intangible assets for impairment at least on an annual basis or whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that it is more likely than not that the carrying amount of goodwill and other intangible assets may exceed their implied fair value. Goodwill is evaluated at the reporting unit level, for which we have one reporting unit level. Any impairment is charged to operations in the period that the impairment is
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identified. During the third quarter of 2020, we completed our annual quantitative analysis of goodwill. As a result of the quantitative analysis, we impaired the remaining balance of our goodwill of $15.1 million as of September 30, 2020 based on the following factors: (i) disruptions in the equity markets, specifically for property and casualty insurance companies, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and due to recent weather related catastrophes; (ii) recent elevated commercial auto loss ratios; and (iii) the fair value of our stock trading significantly below book value. The Company used a weighting of the income and market approaches to determine the fair value of the reporting unit.
As of December 31, 2020, we intend to keep all assets currently leased and honor the terms of the contracts. Also, we have four lease contracts where we are the lessor which we evaluated for impairment. As of December 31, 2020, all payments on these contracts had been received and we fully expect to receive all future payments on time. In the event that we receive any lease-related relief provided to mitigate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we elect not to evaluate whether or not the relief represents a lease modification.
The decline in certain sectors of the equity markets in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic did have a material impact on the fair value of our investments in equity securities and limited liability partnerships. The Company's investment philosophy, objectives, approach and program have not changed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 the decrease in the fair value of equity securities from December 31, 2019 was $6.9 million.
The Company has a highly rated fixed maturity portfolio, with low credit risk. The Company recognized an unrealized gain of $35.8 million, net of tax, in 2020 on its available-for-sale fixed maturity portfolio.
MEASUREMENT OF RESULTS
Our consolidated financial statements are prepared on the basis of GAAP. We also prepare financial statements for each of our insurance company subsidiaries based on statutory accounting principles and file them with insurance regulatory authorities in the states where they do business.
Management evaluates our operations by monitoring key measures of growth and profitability. We believe that disclosure of certain non-GAAP financial measures enhances investor understanding of our financial performance. The following provides further explanation of the key measures management uses to evaluate our results:
Catastrophe losses is a commonly used non-GAAP financial measure which utilizes the designations of the Insurance Services Office ("ISO") and are reported with losses and loss settlement expense amounts net of reinsurance recoverables, unless specified otherwise. According to the ISO, a catastrophe loss is defined as a single unpredictable incident or series of closely related incidents that result in $25.0 million or more in U.S. industry-wide direct insured losses to property and that affect a significant number of insureds and insurers ("ISO catastrophe"). In addition to ISO catastrophes, we also include as catastrophes those events ("non-ISO catastrophes"), which may include U.S. or international losses, that we believe are, or will be, material to our operations, either in amount or in number of claims made. Management, at times, may determine for comparison purposes of our financial results that it is more meaningful to exclude extraordinary catastrophe losses and resulting litigation. The frequency and severity of catastrophic losses we experience in any year affect our results of operations and financial position. In analyzing the underwriting performance of our property and casualty insurance business, we evaluate performance both including and excluding catastrophe losses. Portions of our catastrophe losses may be recoverable under our catastrophe reinsurance agreements. We include a discussion of the impact of catastrophes because we believe it is meaningful for investors to understand the variability in our periodic earnings.
Years Ended December 31,
(1) Includes international assumed losses.
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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS FOR THE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2020, 2019 AND 2018
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Years Ended December 31, % Change
Revenues
Other income 6,270 — — NM —
Benefits, losses and expenses
Goodwill impairment 15,091 — — NM —
Net income (loss) from continuing operations $ (112,706) $ 14,820 $ 2,255 NM NM
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax — — (1,912) NM (100.0) %
Gain on sale of discontinued operations, net of tax — — 27,307 NM (100.0) %
GAAP Ratios:
Net loss ratio (without catastrophes) 68.9 % 70.5 % 66.0 % (2.3) % 6.8 %
Catastrophes - effect on net loss ratio 13.5 % 5.9 % 4.5 % 128.8 % 31.1 %
NM = not meaningful
(1) The net loss ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of losses and loss settlement expenses by net premiums earned. We use the net loss ratio as a measure of the overall underwriting profitability of the insurance business we write and to assess the adequacy of our pricing. Our net loss ratio is meaningful in evaluating our financial results as reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements.
(2) The expense ratio is calculated by dividing non-deferred underwriting expenses and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs by net premiums earned. The expense ratio measures a company's operational efficiency in producing, underwriting and administering its insurance business.
(3) The combined ratio is a commonly used financial measure of property and casualty underwriting performance. A combined ratio below 100.0 percent generally indicates a profitable book of business. The combined ratio is the sum of the net loss ratio and the underwriting expense ratio.
In 2020, the decrease in net income from continuing operations compared to 2019 was primarily due to a decrease in the fair value of equity securities, realized losses on sales of equity securities, increases in losses and loss settlement expenses, namely from catastrophe losses and an increase in severity of losses, decrease in net premiums earned, a decrease in net investment income and goodwill impairment.
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In 2019, the increase in net income from continuing operations compared to 2018 was primarily due to an increase in the value of our investments in equity securities from strong increases in equity markets and an increase in net premiums earned, from rate increases, offset by an increase in losses and loss settlement expenses from an increase in severity of commercial auto and auto liability losses, reserve strengthening in our Gulf Coast Region and an increase in catastrophe losses.
Premiums from continuing operations
The following table shows our premiums written and earned from continuing operations for 2020, 2019 and 2018:
% Change
NM = not meaningful
(1) Net premiums written: Net premiums written is a non-GAAP measure. While not a substitute for any GAAP measure of performance, net premiums written is frequently used by industry analysts and other recognized reporting sources to facilitate comparisons of the performance of insurance companies. Net premiums written are the amount charged for insurance policy contracts issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management believes net premiums written are a meaningful measure for evaluating insurance company sales performance and geographical expansion efforts. Net premiums written for an insurance company consists of direct premiums written and reinsurance assumed, less reinsurance ceded. Net premiums earned is calculated on a pro rata basis over the terms of the respective policies. Unearned premium reserves are established for the portion of premiums written applicable to the unexpired term of insurance policy in force. The difference between net premiums earned and net premiums written is the change in unearned premiums and change in prepaid reinsurance premiums.
Net Premiums Written
Net premiums written comprise direct and assumed premiums written, less ceded premiums written. Direct premiums written are the total policy premiums, net of cancellations, associated with policies issued and underwritten by our property and casualty insurance business. Assumed premiums written are the total premiums associated with the insurance risk transferred to us by other insurance and reinsurance companies pursuant to reinsurance contracts. Ceded premiums written is the portion of direct premiums written that we cede to our reinsurers under our reinsurance contracts. Net premiums earned are recognized ratably over the life of a policy and differ from net premiums written, which are recognized on the effective date of the policy.
Direct Premiums Written
Direct premiums written from continuing operations decreased $78.1 million in 2020 as compared to 2019 primarily due to our focus on improving profitability through non-renewal of underperforming accounts in our commercial auto line of business, sale of the renewal rights of our personal lines business to Nationwide and, to a lesser extent, a reduction due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Direct premiums written from continuing operations increased $31.7 million in 2019 as compared to 2018 primarily due to rate increases, premium audits and endorsements.
Assumed Premiums Written
Assumed premiums written increased $6.5 million in 2020 as compared to 2019 due to growth of our assumed book by the addition of new programs and cedant premium growth.
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Assumed premiums written increased $11.1 million in 2019 as compared to 2018 due to an increase in cedant premium growth and additional program placements.
Ceded Premiums Written
Direct and assumed premiums written are reduced by the ceded premiums that we pay to reinsurers. For 2020, we ceded 18.6 percent more premiums to reinsurers as a result of increased placement of facultative reinsurance, continued growth in managing general agency contracts and ceded reinstatement paid. For 2019, we ceded 11.5 percent more premiums to reinsurers as a result of continued growth in direct premiums written, facultative reinsurance and addition of new managing general agency contracts.
Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses from continuing operations
Catastrophe Exposures
Catastrophe losses are inherent risks of the property and casualty insurance business. Catastrophic events include, without limitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, hailstorms, wildfires, high winds, winter storms and other natural disasters, along with man-made exposures to losses resulting from, without limitation, acts of war, acts of terrorism and political instability. Such events result in insured losses that can be, and may continue to be, a material factor in our results of operations and financial position, as the extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in an area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Because the level of insured losses that may occur in any one year cannot be accurately predicted, these losses contribute to fluctuations in our year-to-year results of operations and financial position. Some types of catastrophes are more likely to occur at certain times within the year than others, which adds an element of seasonality to our property and casualty insurance claims. Our property and casualty insurance business experiences some seasonality with regard to premiums written, which are generally highest in January and July and lowest during the fourth quarter. Losses and loss settlement expenses incurred tend to remain consistent throughout the year, with the exception of catastrophe losses, which generally are highest in the second and third quarters. The frequency and severity of catastrophic events are difficult to accurately predict in any year. However, some geographic locations are more susceptible to these events than others.
We control our direct insurance exposures in regions that are prone to naturally occurring catastrophic events through a combination of geographic diversification, restrictions on the amount and location of new business production in such regions, and reinsurance. We regularly assess our concentration of risk exposures in natural catastrophe exposed areas. We have strategies and underwriting standards to manage these exposures through individual risk selection, subject to regulatory constraints, and through the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance coverage. We use catastrophe modeling and a risk concentration management tool to monitor and control our accumulations of potential losses in natural catastrophe exposed areas of the United States, such as the Gulf and East Coasts, as well as in areas of exposure in other countries where we are exposed to a portion of an insurer's underwriting risk under our assumed reinsurance contracts.
Overall, the models indicate increased risk estimates for our exposure to hurricanes in the U.S., but the impact of the models on our book of business varies significantly among the regions that we model for hurricanes. Based on our analysis, we have implemented more targeted underwriting and rate initiatives in some regions. We will continue to take underwriting actions and/or purchase additional reinsurance as necessary to reduce our exposure.
Catastrophe modeling generally relies on multiple inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history, and the selection of those inputs requires a significant amount of judgment. The modeling results may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseen. Because of this, actual results may differ materially from those derived from our modeling assumptions.
Despite our efforts to manage our catastrophe exposure, the occurrence of one or more severe natural catastrophic events in heavily populated areas could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity.
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The process of estimating and establishing reserves for losses incurred from catastrophic events is inherently uncertain and the actual ultimate cost of a claim, net of reinsurance recoveries, may vary materially from the estimated amount reserved. Although we reinsure a portion of our exposure, reinsurance may prove to be inadequate if a major catastrophic event exceeds our reinsurance limits or if we experience a number of small catastrophic events that individually fall below our reinsurance retention level.
Catastrophe Losses
In 2020, our pre-tax catastrophe losses were $142.0 million, an increase of $77.6 million compared to $64.4 million in 2019 and an increase of $95.3 million as compared to $46.7 million in 2018. In 2020, our catastrophe losses included 60 catastrophes with the largest event being the August Midwest derecho. Catastrophe losses in 2020 added 13.5 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is above our historical 10-year average of 7.4 percentage points.
In 2019, our catastrophe losses included 54 catastrophes with no one event more than $5.0 million. Catastrophe losses in 2019 added 5.9 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is below our historical 10-year average of 6.4 percentage points. In 2018, catastrophe losses included 46 catastrophes with our largest pre-tax catastrophe losses coming from the California wildfires, which totaled $9.2 million. Catastrophe losses in 2018 added 4.5 percentage points to the combined ratio, which is below our historical 10-year average of 6.4 percentage points.
Catastrophe Reinsurance
In 2020, we exceeded our catastrophe reinsurance retention level of $20.0 million with the August Midwest derecho, causing widespread storms and high winds. The August Midwest derecho was a full retention loss, with losses in excess of our stated reinsurance retention of $20.0 million. Total losses from this storm were $101.8 million with $81.8 million of reinsurance recoveries. In 2019 and 2018, we did not exceed our catastrophe reinsurance retention level of $20.0 million per event.
We use many reinsurers, both domestic and foreign, which helps us to avoid concentrations of credit risk associated with our reinsurance. All reinsurers we do business with must meet the following minimum criteria: capital and surplus of at least $300.0 million and an A.M. Best rating or an S&P rating of at least "A-." If a reinsurer is rated by both rating agencies, then both ratings must be at least an "A-."
The following table represents the primary reinsurers we utilize and their financial strength ratings as of December 31, 2020:
Name of Reinsurer A.M. Best S&P Rating
Everest Reinsurance Company(2) A+ A+
General Reinsurance Corporation(2) A++ AA+
Hannover Rueckversicherung AG (1) (2) A+ AA-
Lloyd's A A+
Munich Re(2) A+ A-
Odyssey Re(2) A A-
Partner Re(1)(2) A+ A+
QBE Reinsurance Corporation(1) A A+
SCOR Reinsurance Company(1)(2) A+ AA-
Toa Re(1) A A+
Transatlantic Re(1) A+ A+
(1)Primary reinsurers participating in the property and casualty excess of loss programs.
(2)Primary reinsurers participating in the surety excess of loss program.
Refer to Part II, Item 8, Note 4 "Reinsurance" for further discussion of our reinsurance programs.
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Terrorism Coverage
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 ("TRIPRA") is the fourth reauthorization of the law, which was previously reauthorized in 2005, 2007, and 2015. TRIRPA coverage is effective through December 31, 2027 and preserves the current industry loss trigger of $200 million per year, and gradually increased the industry-wide retention to $37.5 billion per year. TRIPRA coverage includes most direct commercial lines of business, including coverage for losses from nuclear, biological and chemical exposures if coverage was afforded by an insurer, with exclusions for commercial automobile insurance, burglary and theft insurance, surety, professional liability insurance and farm owners multiple peril insurance. Under TRIPRA, each insurer has a deductible amount, which is 20.0 percent of the prior year's direct commercial lines earned premiums for the applicable lines of business, and retention of 15.0 percent above the deductible. No insurer that has met its deductible shall be liable for the payment of any portion of that amount that exceeds the annual aggregate loss cap specified in TRIPRA. TRIPRA provides marketplace stability. As a result, coverage for terrorist events in both the insurance and reinsurance markets is often available. The amount of aggregate losses necessary for an act of terrorism to be certified by the U.S. Secretary of Treasury, the Secretary of State and the Attorney General was $200.0 million for 2020 and remains the same for 2021. Our TRIPRA deductible was $140.4 million for 2020 and our TRIPRA deductible is expected to be $139.8 million for 2021. Our catastrophe and non-catastrophe reinsurance programs provide limited coverage for terrorism exposure excluding nuclear, biological and chemical-related claims.
2020 Results
In 2020, our losses and loss settlement expenses were 4.7 percent higher than 2019 and our net loss ratio increased 6.0 points. The increase was primarily driven by an increase in the severity of losses from social inflation, an increase in catastrophe losses and prior accident year reserve strengthening. With the continued escalation of losses from social inflation, especially with commercial auto and auto liability losses industry wide we are focusing on continuing our strategic plan to reduce the size of our commercial auto book in 2021. By reducing commercial auto exposure units in underperforming accounts and growing more profitable lines of business such as excess and surplus, surety and assumed reinsurance, we intend to achieve a better balance in our portfolio. Catastrophe losses increased to $142.0 million in both our direct business and assumed reinsurance business as compared to $64.4 million in 2019.
2019 Results
In 2019, our losses and loss settlement expenses were 13.5 percent higher than 2018 and our net loss ratio increased
5.9 points. The increase was primarily driven by an increase in the severity of losses in commercial auto line of
business, an increase in catastrophe losses and prior accident year reserve strengthening in our Gulf Coast region. Catastrophe losses increased to $64.4 million in both our direct business and assumed reinsurance business as compared to $46.7 million in 2018.
Reserve Development
For many liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, and for certain construction defect claims, more than a decade, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement or other disposition of the claim. As a result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition, long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretations and the legal environment. Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability. Reserves for these long-tail coverages represent a significant portion of our overall carried reserves.
When establishing reserves and monitoring reserve adequacy, we analyze historical data and consider the potential impact of various loss development factors and trends including historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, results of our medical bill review process and changes and trends in general economic
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conditions, including the effects of inflation. All of these factors influence our estimates of required reserves and for long-tail lines these factors can change over the course of the settlement of the claim. However, there is no precise method for evaluating the specific dollar impact of any individual factor on the development of reserves.
Our reserving philosophy is to reserve claims to their ultimate expected loss amount as soon as practicable after information about a claim becomes available. This approach tends to produce, on average, cautiously pessimistic case reserves, which we expect to result in some level of favorable development over the course of settlement.
2020 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $17.7 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2020. Four lines contributed the majority of favorable development with the largest contribution coming from workers' compensation which had $25.4 million favorable development followed by commercial fire and allied lines which had $10.7 million favorable development. The two other lines which experienced favorable development were fidelity and surety with $2.1 million favorable development and personal automobile with $1.9 million favorable development. The favorable development for workers' compensation was primarily from reductions in reserves for reported claims which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss. Reductions in reserves for IBNR claims also contributed favorable development in addition to loss adjustment expense ("LAE") where reductions in reserves more than sufficient to offset payments. Commercial fire and allied lines developed favorably because reductions in reserves for reported claims combined with reductions in reserves for IBNR claims were more than sufficient to offset paid loss; LAE also contributed favorable development with reductions in reserves more than sufficient to offset payments. Fidelity and surety loss developed favorably because a reduction in reserves for IBNR claims was more than sufficient to offset both paid loss and increases in reserves for reported claims. The personal automobile line of business developed favorably because reductions of reserves for reported claims combined with reductions of reserves for IBNR claims were more than sufficient to offset paid loss; LAE also contributed favorable development with reductions in reserves more than sufficient to offset payments. Much of the favorable development was offset by unfavorable development from three lines with the largest contribution coming from commercial liability which experienced $12.8 million unfavorable development. The two other lines which experienced unfavorable development were reinsurance assumed with $6.4 million unfavorable development and commercial automobile with $4.0 million unfavorable development. The commercial liability line of business experienced unfavorable development due to paid loss which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss; LAE developed favorably and partially offset the unfavorable loss development. The unfavorable development for the reinsurance assumed line of business was due to paid loss which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss. The commercial automobile line of business experienced unfavorable development because paid loss was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss, but a portion of the unfavorable loss development was offset by favorable development from LAE where payments were more than offset by reductions of reserves for unpaid loss adjustment expense. On an all lines combined basis, favorable development is attributable to LAE which continues to benefit from additional litigation management efforts. The lines of business not mentioned individually above contributed an additional combined total of $0.8 million of favorable development.
2019 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $5.3 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the year ended December 31, 2019. Four lines contributed favorable development with the largest contribution coming from workers' compensation, which had $37.3 million favorable development. The three other lines that experienced favorable development were fidelity and surety with $3.1 million favorable development, commercial fire and allied lines with $2.3 million favorable development, and personal automobile with $1.2 million favorable development. The favorable development for workers' compensation was primarily from reductions in reserves for reported claims which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss; LAE also contributed favorable development with reductions in reserves more than sufficient to offset payments. Fidelity and surety loss developed favorably because reductions inclaim reserves and salvage recoverieswere more than sufficient to offset loss payments. Commercial fire and allied lines developed favorably due to paid LAE where reductions in reserves
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for unpaid LAE were more than sufficient to offset payments. Personal automobile developed favorably primarily due to paid LAE where reductions in reserves for unpaid LAE were more than sufficient to offset payments. Much of the favorable development was offset by unfavorable development from two lines with the largest contribution coming from commercial liability which experienced $35.0 million unfavorable development. The other line which experienced unfavorable development was commercial automobile with $3.4 million unfavorable development. Commercial liability experienced unfavorable development primarily due to paid loss which was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss. Paid LAE also contributed to the unfavorable result in commercial liability. Commercial automobile experienced unfavorable development because paid loss was greater than reductions in reserves for unpaid loss, but a portion of the unfavorable loss development was offset by favorable development from LAE. On an all lines combined basis, favorable development is attributable to LAE which continues to benefit from additional litigation management efforts. The lines of business not mentioned individually above contributed an additional total of $0.2 million of unfavorable development in the aggregate.
2018 Development
The property and casualty insurance business experienced $54.2 million of favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years for the year ended December 31, 2018. The majority of favorable development came from four lines, workers' compensation with $27.0 million favorable development, reinsurance assumed with $15.6 million favorable development, commercial automobile with $9.5 million favorable development, and fidelity and surety with $2.8 million favorable development. The only individual line with unfavorable development was commercial liability with $3.7 million of unfavorable development. Workers' compensation favorable development was primarily from reserve reductions for both reported claims and loss IBNR which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss with additional favorable development coming from LAE where the LAE IBNR reduction was more than sufficient to offset paid LAE which continues to benefit from additional litigation management efforts when compared to prior years. Reinsurance assumed favorable development is attributable reductions in reserves for both reported claims and loss IBNR as we reviewed our book of business and released excess reserves during 2018. Commercial automobile favorable development was driven by LAE where LAE IBNR reductions were more than sufficient to offset paid LAE. Fidelity and surety favorable development is attributable to reductions in reserves for both reported claims and loss IBNR which were more than sufficient to offset paid loss. Commercial liability adverse development is attributable to reserve strengthening for both reported claims and loss IBNR primarily in response to an increase in umbrella auto related claims while LAE developed favorably with reductions of LAE IBNR more than sufficient to offset paid LAE.
Reserve development amounts can vary significantly from year-to-year depending on a number of factors, including the number of claims settled and the settlement terms, and are subject to reallocation between accident years and lines of business.
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Net Loss Ratios by Line
The following table depicts our net loss ratios for 2020, 2019 and 2018:
Commercial lines
Personal lines
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Commercial Lines
The net loss ratio in our commercial lines of business, excluding assumed reinsurance, was 77.8 percent in 2020 compared to 75.6 percent in 2019 and 71.4 percent in 2018. The net loss ratio in 2020 increased compared to 2019 primarily due to an increase in catastrophe losses. The net loss ratio in 2019 increased compared to 2018 with a deterioration in commercial auto and other liability lines of business from an increase in severity of commercial auto losses and auto related bodily injury claims. Also contributing to the deterioration in 2019 compared to 2018, was an increase in commercial fire and allied lines of business due to an increase in catastrophe losses.
Other Liability
Other liability is business insurance covering bodily injury and property damage arising from general business operations, accidents on the insured's premises and products manufactured or sold. Because of the long-tail nature of liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement of the claim.
In recent years, we began to use our loss control department more extensively in an attempt to return this line of business to a higher level of profitability. For example, our loss control department has representatives who make multiple visits each year to businesses and job sites to ensure safety. We also do not renew accounts that no longer meet our underwriting or pricing guidelines. We avoid accounts that have become too underpriced for the risk.
Construction Defect Losses
Incurred losses from construction defect claims were $14.8 million in 2020 compared to $19.4 million and $15.9 million in 2019 and 2018, respectively. At December 31, 2020, we had $73.6 million in construction defect loss and loss settlement expense reserves (excluding IBNR reserves which are calculated at the overall other liability commercial line), which consisted of 3,983 claims. In comparison, at December 31, 2019, we had reserves of $60.4 million, excluding IBNR reserves, consisting of 3,439 claims. Our West Coast region continue to be the origin of the majority of the construction defect claim activity.
Construction defect claims generally relate to allegedly defective work performed in the construction of structures such as apartments, condominiums, single family dwellings or other housing, as well as the sale of defective building materials. Such claims seek recovery due to damage caused by alleged deficient construction techniques or workmanship. The reporting of such claims can be quite delayed due to an extended statute of limitations, sometimes up to ten years. Court decisions have expanded insurers' exposure to construction defect claims as well. Defense costs are also a part of the insured expenses covered by liability policies and can be significant, sometimes greater than the cost of the actual paid claims.
We have exposure to construction defect liabilities in Colorado and surrounding states. We have historically insured small- to medium-sized contractors in this geographic area. In an effort to limit the number of future claims from multi-unit buildings, we implemented policy exclusions in 2009, later revised in 2010, that exclude liability coverage for contractors performing "residential structural" operations on any building project with more than 12 units or on single family homes in any subdivision where the contractor is working on more than 15 homes. The exclusions do not apply to remodeling or repair of an existing structure. We also changed our underwriting guidelines to add a professional liability exclusion when contractors prepare their own design work or blueprints and implemented the multi-family exclusion and tract home building limitation form for the state of Colorado and our other western states as a means to reduce our exposure in future years. When offering commercial umbrella coverage for structural residential contractors, limits of liability are typically limited to a maximum of $2.0 million per occurrence. Requests to provide additional insured status for "developers" are declined.
As a result of our acquisition of Mercer Insurance Group, Inc. in 2011, we added construction defect exposure in the states of California, Nevada and Arizona. Mercer Insurance Group, Inc. has been writing in these states for more than 20 years. In order to minimize our exposure to construction defect claims in this region, we continually review the coverage we offer and our pricing models. In an effort to limit our exposure from residential multi-unit buildings, we started including condominium and townhouse construction policy exclusions in 2012 for our
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contracting policies in this region. For the majority of our residential contractors we limit the size of any tracts the contractor is working on to 25 homes or less and do not include a continuous trigger with our designated work exclusion. In a majority of the policies in our small service, repair and remodel contractors program, we have a favorable new residential construction exclusion. We also apply strict guidelines when additional insured forms are required and changed our underwriting guidelines to limit our exposure to large, multi-party construction defect claims.
Commercial Fire and Allied Lines
Commercial fire and allied lines include fire, allied lines, commercial multiple peril and inland marine. The insurance covers losses to an insured's property, including its contents, from weather, fire, theft or other causes. We provide this coverage through a variety of business policies.
The net loss ratio deteriorated 17.2 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019. The deterioration was primarily due to an increase in catastrophe losses.
Commercial Automobile
Our commercial automobile insurance covers physical damage to an insured's vehicle, as well as liabilities to third parties. Automobile physical damage insurance covers loss or damage to vehicles from collision, vandalism, fire, theft, flood or other causes. Automobile liability insurance covers bodily injury, damage to property resulting from automobile accidents caused by the insured, uninsured or underinsured motorists and the legal costs of defending the insured against lawsuits.
The net loss ratio improved 7.6 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019. In both years, the loss ratio was at an elevated level due to the severity of losses from social inflation of bodily injury claims from prior accident years. In 2020, the improvement was from less prior accident year reserve strengthening than in 2019.
Workers' Compensation
We consider our workers' compensation business to be a companion product; we rarely write stand-alone workers' compensation policies. Our workers' compensation insurance covers primarily small- to mid-size accounts. The net loss ratio deteriorated 9.3 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019. The deterioration is attributable to a few large claims in 2020. The current year loss ratios are more in line with an average year as compared to 2019 which had less than average losses.
Competitive market conditions continue in 2020 for workers' compensation business, putting downward pressure on rates. The challenges faced by workers' compensation insurance providers to attain profitability include the regulatory climates in some states that make it difficult to obtain appropriate premium rate increases and inflationary medical costs. Consequently, we have increased the utilization of our loss control unit in the analysis of current risks, with the intention of increasing the quality of our workers' compensation book of business. We are currently using these modeling analytics to assist us in risk selection, and we will continue to evaluate the model results.
Fidelity and Surety
Our surety products guarantee performance and payment by our bonded principals. Our contract bonds protect owners from failure to perform on the part of our principals. In addition, our surety bonds protect material suppliers and subcontractors from nonpayment by our contractors. When surety losses occur, our loss is determined by estimating the cost to complete the remaining work and to pay the contractor's unpaid bills, offset by contract funds due to the contractor, reinsurance, and the value of any collateral to which we may have access.
The net loss ratio deteriorated 1.6 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019, however the loss ratio remained at a low level and is immaterial to overall losses.
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Personal Lines
Our personal lines consist primarily of fire and allied lines (including homeowners) and automobile lines. The net loss ratio deteriorated 58.0 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019. The deterioration is primarily attributable to our personal fire and allied line of business due to an increase in catastrophe losses. Also, net premiums earned decreased due to the renewal rights agreement for our personal lines business we entered into in May 2020, providing our independent insurance agents with the opportunity to transfer their personal lines policies to Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company beginning in the third quarter of 2020.
Assumed Reinsurance
Our assumed reinsurance is the business we choose to write by participating in programs insuring insurance companies. The net loss ratio deteriorated 32.0 percentage points in 2020 compared to 2019. The deterioration is attributable to strengthening reserves for incurred but not reported claim events.
Other Underwriting Expenses
Our underwriting expense ratio, which is a percentage of other underwriting expenses over net premiums earned, was 33.5 percent, 32.6 percent and 33.5 percent for 2020, 2019, and 2018, respectively. The increase in the expense ratio in 2020 as compared to 2019 was primarily due to our continued investment in technology, including our multi-year Oasis project, an upgrade to our technology platform designed to enhance core underwriting decisions, selection of risks and productivity. The decrease in the expense ratio during in 2019 as compared to 2018 was primarily due to lower employee benefit accruals and expenses caused by post-retirement benefit plan amendments made at the end of 2018.
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Discontinued Operations Results
Years Ended December 31, % Change
Revenues
Net premiums earned $ — $ — $ 13,003 — % (100.0) %
Investment income, net — — 12,663 — % (100.0) %
Net realized investment gains (losses) — — (1,057) — % (100.0) %
Benefits, Losses and Expenses
Losses and loss settlement expenses $ — $ — $ 10,823 — % (100.0) %
Increase in liability for future policy benefits — — 5,023 — % (100.0) %
Amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs — — 1,895 — % (100.0) %
Other underwriting expenses — — 3,864 — % (100.0) %
Interest on policyholders' accounts — — 4,499 — % (100.0) %
Total benefits, losses and expenses $ — $ — $ 26,104 — % (100.0) %
Income (loss) before income taxes $ — $ — $ (1,349) — % (100.0) %
The sale of our discontinued operations closed on March 30, 2018, and therefore income was only earned in the first quarter of 2018. For the year ended December 31, 2018, our discontinued operations had a loss before income taxes of $1.3 million.
Federal Income Taxes
We reported a federal income tax benefit on a consolidated basis of $56.8 million or 33.5 percent of pre-tax loss in 2020. In 2019, federal income tax expense on a consolidated basis was $2.1 million or 12.2 percent of pre-tax income and federal income tax benefit on a consolidated basis of $3.3 million or 13.5 percent of pre-tax income in 2018.
On March 27, 2020, the CARES Act was enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The CARES Act, among other things, permits net operating loss ("NOL") carryovers and carrybacks to offset 100 percent of taxable income for taxable years beginning before 2021. In addition, the CARES Act allows NOLs incurred in 2018, 2019, and 2020 to be carried back to each of the five preceding taxable years to generate a refund of previously paid income taxes. The Company has considered the implications of the CARES Act on its tax provision and has included an income tax benefit of $18.6 million as the result of this Act.
Our effective tax rate was impacted by the The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the "Tax Act"), which was enacted on December 22, 2017. The Tax Act significantly revised the U.S. corporate income tax laws including lowering the U.S. federal corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent effective January 1, 2018. Our effective federal tax rate varied from the statutory federal income tax expense rate in each year, due primarily to the impact of the provisions of the CARES Act.
In December 2017, the SEC staff issued Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 118, which addresses how a company recognizes provisional amounts when a company does not have the necessary information available, prepared or analyzed in reasonable detail to complete its accounting for the effect of the changes in the Tax Act. The measurement period ends when a company has obtained, prepared and analyzed the information necessary to finalize its accounting, but cannot extend beyond one year. As of December 31, 2018 we had completed accounting for the tax effects of enactment of the Tax Act, and no adjustment was made during the measurement period.
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Due to our determination that we may not be able to fully realize the benefits of the net operating loss ("NOL") acquired in the purchase of American Indemnity Financial Corporation in 1999, which are only available to offset the future taxable income of our property and casualty insurance operations and are further limited as to the amount that can be utilized in any given year, we have recorded a valuation allowance against these NOLs. Based on a yearly review, we determine whether the benefit of the NOLs can be realized, and, if so, the decrease in the valuation allowance is recorded as a reduction to current federal income tax expense. If NOLs expire during the year, the decrease in the valuation allowance is offset with a corresponding decrease to the deferred income tax asset. The valuation allowance was reduced by $0.7 million in 2018 due to the realization of $3.1 million in NOLs, therefore reducing the valuation allowance to zero. During 2018, the remaining NOL from the purchase of American Indemnity Financial Corporation was fully realized.
As of December 31, 2020, we had no alternative minimum tax credit carryforwards.
INVESTMENTS
Investment Environment
Domestic and global capital markets weathered truly unprecedented adversity in 2020. The year began with projections for steady GDP growth and expectations of continued strength in labor and housing markets. In response, risk investors were rewarded as financial assets priced higher into February. By late February, however, the global economy could no longer ignore the health and economic risks posed by the novel coronavirus, COVID-19.
The ensuing sell-off was sharp. Over the past 30 years the S&P 500 Index has only produced double-digit negative weekly returns five times. Two of these weeks occurred during a four-week span from February through March of 2020. The week ended March 20, 2020 was the third worst weekly performance for the S&P 500 Index since its inception. Over the same period, the spread on investment grade corporate bonds more than tripled while interest rates plummeted. The selling became so widespread that even Treasuries began to lose stability. The price on the 10-year note surged in late February as rates dropped 70 basis points. Less than 10 days later, prices collapsed as rates reversed course and surged 70 basis points. Rates dropped precipitously again and began to stabilize after historic and decisive action taken by the Federal Reserve ("The Fed"). The Fed entered the market boldly in mid-March, activating multiple funding facilities, some for the first time ever, and pledging to buy certain financial assets with no limit, including corporate and municipal debt in either primary or secondary markets.
The Fed’s intervention, along with historic fiscal stimulus provided by the U.S. Treasury, proved powerful enough to restore confidence in the market. Risk asset prices stabilized and then retraced their March losses. The S&P 500 Index gained 11.7 percent in the fourth quarter to close the year up 16.3 percent. The UFG equity security portfolio, which is weighted more heavily in the financial sector, also partially recovered in the fourth quarter, recovering a portion of the losses recognized in the first three quarters of 2020. U.S. fixed income markets closed the year near all-time strength in nearly any dimension that can be measured. Treasury yields finished well inside of last year’s levels with short-term rates anchored close to zero.
Overall, the current investment environment is challenging with the U.S. equity market seeing stretched valuations only encountered a handful of times in history. Fixed income markets face a near zero-rate environment with no sign of relief on the horizon. We believe the global economy is in the process of recovering from recession. While successful vaccine developments have given us a line of sight to what many are predicting to be a strong second half of 2021, the long-term economic damage caused by COVID-19 has yet to be fully understood. With an increase in debt during the pandemic, companies around the globe are relying on an imminent recovery so as to avoid an avalanche of defaults. Our investment program is defensive in nature and designed to outperform during periods of market uncertainty.
Investment Philosophy
The Company's assets are invested to preserve capital and maximize after-tax returns while maintaining an appropriate balance of risk. The return on our portfolio is an important component of overall financial results, but
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quality and safety of principal is the highest priority of our investment program. Our general investment philosophy is to purchase financial instruments with the expectation that we will hold them to their maturity. However, active management of our portfolio is considered necessary to appropriately manage risk, achieve portfolio objectives and maximize investment income as market conditions change.
Each of our insurance company subsidiaries develops an appropriate investment strategy that aligns with its business needs and supports United Fire's strategic plan and risk appetite. The portfolio is structured so as to be in compliance with state insurance laws that prescribe the quality, concentration and type of investments that may be made by insurance companies.
Investment Portfolio
Our invested assets from continuing operations at December 31, 2020 totaled $2.1 billion, compared to $2.2 billion at December 31, 2019, a decrease of $5.9 million. At December 31, 2020, fixed maturity securities and equity securities comprised 85.0 percent and 9.6 percent of our investment portfolio, respectively. Because the primary purpose of the investment portfolio is to fund future claims payments, we utilize a conservative investment philosophy, investing in a diversified portfolio of high-quality, intermediate-term taxable corporate bonds, taxable U.S. government and government agency bonds and tax-exempt U.S. municipal bonds. Our overall investment strategy is to stay fully invested (i.e., minimize cash balances). If additional cash is needed we have an ability to borrow funds available under our revolving credit facility.
Composition
We develop our investment strategies based on a number of factors, including estimated duration of reserve liabilities, short- and long-term liquidity needs, projected tax status, general economic conditions, expected rates of inflation and regulatory requirements. We administer our investment portfolio based on investment guidelines approved by management and the investment committee of our Board of Directors that comply with applicable statutory regulations.
The composition of our investment portfolio at December 31, 2020 is presented at carrying value in the following table:
Percent
(In Thousands) of Total
Fixed maturities:
Other long-term investments 69,305 3.2
Short-term investments 175 —
At December 31, 2020, we classified $1.8 billion, or 100.0 percent, of our fixed maturities portfolio as available-for-sale, compared to $1.7 billion, or 99.1 percent, at December 31, 2019. Available-for-sale fixed maturity securities are carried at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income in stockholders' equity. We record fixed maturity trading securities, primarily convertible redeemable preferred debt securities, and equity securities at fair value, with any changes in fair value recognized in earnings.
As of December 31, 2020 and 2019, we did not have direct exposure to investments in subprime mortgages or other credit enhancement vehicles.
Credit Quality
The following table shows the composition of fixed maturity securities held in our available-for-sale and trading security portfolios by credit rating at December 31, 2020 and 2019. Information contained in the table is generally
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based upon the issue credit ratings provided by Moody's, unless the rating is unavailable, in which case we obtain it from Standard & Poor's.
Rating Carrying Value % of Total Carrying Value % of Total
Duration
Our investment portfolio is invested primarily in fixed maturity securities whose fair value is susceptible to market risk, specifically interest rate changes. Duration is a measurement used to quantify our inherent interest rate risk and analyze our ability to match our invested assets to our reserve liabilities. If our invested assets and reserve liabilities have similar durations, then any change in interest rates will have an equal effect on these accounts. The primary purpose for matching invested assets and reserve liabilities is liquidity. With appropriate matching, our investments will mature when cash is needed, preventing the need to liquidate other assets prematurely. Mismatches in the duration of assets and liabilities can cause significant fluctuations in our results of operations.
The weighted average effective duration of our portfolio of fixed maturity securities was 3.4 years at December 31, 2020 compared to 4.2 years at December 31, 2019.
The amortized cost and fair value of available-for-sale and trading fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2020, by contractual maturity, are shown in the following table. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties. Asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations may be subject to prepayment risk and are therefore not categorized by contractual maturity.
(In Thousands) Available-For-Sale
Amortized Fair
Asset-backed securities 314 926
Investment Results
We invest the premiums received from our policyholders in order to generate investment income, which is an important component of our revenues and profitability. The amount of investment income that we are able to generate is affected by many factors, some of which are beyond our control. Some of these factors are volatility in the financial markets, economic growth, inflation, changes in interest rates, world political conditions, terrorist attacks or threats of terrorism, adverse events affecting other companies in our industry or the industries in which we invest and other unpredictable national or world events. Net investment income decreased 34.3 percent in 2020, compared with the same period of 2019 and was primarily due to the change in the fair value of our investments in
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limited liability partnerships with an increase in the fourth quarter but a decrease for the full year 2020. The valuation of our investments in limited liability partnerships varies from period to period due to current equity market conditions. We expect to maintain our investment philosophy of purchasing quality investments rated investment grade or better.
An allowance for credit losses is recorded based on a number of factors including the current economic conditions, management's expectations of future economic conditions and performance indicators, such as market value vs. amortized cost, investment spreads widening or contracting, rating actions, payment and default history. The following table contains a rollforward of the allowance for credit losses for available-for-sale fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2020:
As of
Beginning balance, January 1, 2020 $ —
Reductions for securities sold during the period (realized) —
Writeoffs charged against the allowance —
Recoveries of amounts previously written off —
Ending balance, December 31, 2020 $ 5
Changes in unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale fixed maturity securities do not affect net income and earnings per share but do impact comprehensive income, stockholders' equity and book value per share. We believe that any unrealized losses on our available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities at December 31, 2020 are temporary based upon our current analysis of the issuers of the securities that we hold and current market conditions. We invest in high quality assets to provide protection from future credit quality issues. Non-credit related unrealized gains and losses are recognized as a component of other comprehensive income and represent other market movements that are not credit related, for example interest rate changes. We have no intent to sell, and it is more likely than not that we will not be required to sell, these securities until the fair value recovers to at least equal our cost basis or the securities mature.
Net Investment Income
In 2020, our investment income, net of investment expenses, decreased $20.7 million to $39.7 million as compared to 2019, primarily due to the change in the fair value of our investments in limited liability partnerships, a decrease in interest on fixed maturities and interest on cash and cash equivalents due to declining interest rates.
In 2019, our investment income for continuing operations, net of investment expenses, increased $7.5 million to $60.4 million as compared to 2018, primarily due to an increase in the value of our investments in limited liability partnerships resulting from the increase in the equity markets and an increase in invested assets in 2019 compared to 2018.
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The following table summarizes the components of net investment income:
Investment income from continuing operations:
Income on other long-term investments
Interest on short-term investments 107 522 606
Total investment income from continuing operations $ 48,127 $ 67,395 $ 60,554
Net investment income from discontinued operations — — 12,663
(1)Represents the change in value of our interests in limited liability partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting.
In 2020, 96.6 percentof our gross investment income from continuing operations originated from interest on fixed maturities, compared to 74.6 percent and 84.8 percent in 2019 and 2018, respectively.
The following table details our annualized yield on average invested assets from continuing operations for 2020 and 2019, and both continuing and discontinued operations for 2018, which is based on our invested assets (including money market accounts) at the beginning and end of the year divided by net investment income:
(In Thousands)
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Net Realized Investment Gains and Losses
The following table summarizes the components of our net realized investment gains or losses:
Net realized investment gains (losses) from continuing operations:
Net realized gains (losses):
Fixed maturities:
Allowance for credit losses (5) — —
Trading securities
Equity securities
Mortgage loans (4) (26) (46)
Net Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses
As of December 31, 2020, net unrealized investment gains, after tax, totaled $83.1 million compared to unrealized gains of $47.3 million and unrealized losses of $9.3 million as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. The increase in net unrealized investment gains in 2020 was primarily the result of an increase in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to lower interest rates during 2020.
The increase in net unrealized investment gains in 2019 was primarily the result of an increase in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to lower interest rates during 2019. The decrease in net unrealized investment gains in 2018 was primarily the result of the cumulative change in accounting principles on recognizing the change in the value of equity securities in the income statement. The change in accounting principles required unrealized gains on equity securities of $191.2 million, after-tax, as of January 1, 2018, to be reclassified to retained earnings from accumulated other comprehensive income, both within shareholders equity. The remaining decrease is due to a decrease in the value of the fixed maturity portfolio due to rising interest rates.
The following table summarizes the change in our net unrealized investment gains (losses):
Changes in net unrealized investment gains (losses):
Deferred policy acquisition costs — — 7,274
Cumulative change in accounting principles — — (191,244)
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MARKET RISK
Our Consolidated Balance Sheets include financial instruments whose fair values are subject to market risk. The active management of market risk is integral to our operations. Market risk is the potential for loss due to a decrease in the fair value of securities resulting from uncontrollable fluctuations, such as: interest rate risk, equity price risk, foreign exchange risk, credit risk, inflation, or geopolitical conditions. Our primary market risk exposures are: changes in interest rates, deterioration of credit quality in specific issuers, sectors or the economy as a whole, and an unforeseen decrease in the liquidity of securities we hold. We have no foreign exchange risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the price sensitivity of a fixed income maturity security or portfolio of securities to changes in level of interest rates. Generally, there is an inverse relationship between changes in interest rates and changes in the price of a fixed income/maturity security. Plainly stated, if interest rates go up (down), bond prices go down (up). A vast majority of our holdings are fixed income maturity and other interest rate sensitive securities that will decrease (increase) in value as interest rates increase (decrease). While it is generally our intent to hold our investments in fixed maturity securities to maturity, we have classified a majority of our fixed maturity portfolio as available-for-sale. Available-for-sale fixed income maturity securities are carried at fair value on the Consolidated Balance Sheets with unrealized gains or losses reported net of tax in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income. A change in the prevailing interest rates generally translates into a change in the fair value of our fixed income/maturity securities, and by extension, our overall book value.
Market Risk and Duration
We analyze potential changes in the value of our investment portfolio due to the market risk factors noted above within the overall context of asset and liability management. A technique we use in the management of our investment portfolio is the calculation of duration. Our actuaries estimate the payout pattern of our reserve liabilities to determine their duration, which is the present value of the weighted average payments expressed in years. We then establish a target duration for our investment portfolio so that at any given time the estimated cash generated by the investment portfolio will closely match the estimated cash required for the payment of the related reserves. We structure the investment portfolio to meet the target duration to achieve the required cash flow, based on liquidity and market risk factors.
Impact of Interest Rate Changes
The amounts set forth in the following table detail the impact of hypothetical interest rate changes on the fair value of fixed maturity securities held at December 31, 2020. The sensitivity analysis measures the change in fair values arising from immediate changes in selected interest rate scenarios. We employed hypothetical parallel shifts in the yield curve of plus or minus 100 and 200 basis points in the simulations. Additionally, based upon the yield curve shifts, we employ estimates of prepayment speeds for mortgage-related products and the likelihood of call or put options being exercised within the simulations.
The selection of a 100-basis-point and 200-basis-point increase or decrease in interest rates should not be construed as a prediction by our management of future market events, but rather as an illustration of the potential impact of an event.
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(In Thousands) Points Points Base Points Points
AVAILABLE-FOR-SALE
Fixed maturities
Bonds
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
General obligations:
Special revenue:
Corporate bonds
Collateralized mortgage obligations
To the extent actual results differ from the assumptions utilized, our duration and interest rate measures could be significantly affected. As a result, these calculations may not fully capture the impact of nonparallel changes in the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates.
Equity Price Risk
Equity price risk is the potential loss arising from changes in the fair value (i.e., market price) of equity securities held in our portfolio. Changes in the price of an equity security may be due to a change in the future earnings capacity or strategic outlook of the security issuer, and what investors are willing to pay for those future earnings and related strategy. The carrying values of our equity securities are based on quoted market prices, from an independent source, as of the balance sheet date. Market prices of equity securities, in general, are subject to fluctuations that could cause the amount to be realized upon the future sale of the securities to differ significantly from the current reported value. The fluctuations may result from perceived changes in the underlying economic characteristics of the security issuer, the relative price of alternative investments, general market conditions, and supply/demand factors related to a particular security.
Impact of Price Change
The following table details the effect on the fair value of our investments in equity securities for a positive and negative 10 percent price change at December 31, 2020:
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(In Thousands) -10% Base +10%
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk
Foreign currency exchange rate risk arises from the possibility that changes in foreign exchange rates will impact our transactions with foreign reinsurers relating to the settlement of amounts due to or from foreign reinsurers in the normal course of business. We consider this risk to be immaterial to our operations.
Credit Risk