Item 1A. Risk Factors
You should carefully consider the following risks and other information in this Annual Report on Form 10-K in evaluating GRAIL and GRAIL common stock. Any of the following risks and uncertainties could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. The following risks have generally been separated into five groups: risks relating to our business and industry, risks relating to regulation and legal compliance, risks relating to intellectual property, risks relating to the Spin-Off, and risks relating to our common stock. References to “we,” “our,” “us,” and words of similar import in this section refer to GRAIL and, unless otherwise specified, its consolidated subsidiaries.
Risks Relating to Our Business and Industry
We operate in a rapidly evolving field and have a limited operating history, which makes it difficult to evaluate our current business and predict our future performance.
We operate in a rapidly evolving field and, having commenced operations in January 2016, have a limited operating history. We completed our first sale of our multi-cancer early detection test, Galleri, in mid-2021 and our other products and products in development have an even more limited history, with most still not in commercial distribution. We have funded our operations to date primarily with the proceeds from the sale of equity securities and capital contributions from Illumina and, to a lesser extent, revenue derived from sales of Galleri and biopharmaceutical business revenue. Our short operating history as a company, evolving business strategies, rapid growth and significant events such as our separation from Illumina and the Restructuring Plan may make it difficult to evaluate our current business or our future success and the risks and challenges we may encounter, and may increase the risk that we will not continue to grow at or near historical rates. See Item 7. “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” for more information about the Restructuring Plan.
If we fail to address the risks and difficulties that we face, including those described elsewhere in this “Risk Factors” section, our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects could be materially adversely affected. We have encountered in the past, and expect to encounter in the future, risks and difficulties frequently experienced by companies with limited operating histories in new and rapidly evolving fields. If our assumptions regarding these risks and difficulties, which we use to plan and operate our business, are incorrect or change, or if we do not address these risks and difficulties, our results of operations could differ materially from our expectations and our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects could be adversely affected.
We have incurred significant net losses in each period since our inception and anticipate that we will continue to incur net losses for the coming years.
Since our inception, we have incurred significant net losses. Our net loss was $2.0 billion for fiscal year 2024, $1.5 billion for fiscal year 2023, and $5.4 billion for fiscal year 2022. Substantially all of our net losses since inception have resulted from our research and development programs, commercialization efforts, investments in our facilities, payments to licensors, and general and administrative costs associated with our operations, as well as intangible asset amortization and the impairments of $1.4 billion, $0.7 billion and $4.7 billion for fiscal year 2024, fiscal year 2023 and fiscal year 2022, respectively, related to the intangible assets and goodwill recorded by Illumina upon the Acquisition of GRAIL. As of December 31, 2024, we had an accumulated deficit of $9.8 billion and intangible assets of $2.0 billion.
We have invested significant financial resources in research and development activities, including to develop our methylation platform, and to develop our products, such as Galleri and our precision oncology portfolio. We have also invested significant resources to conduct large scale clinical studies to evaluate and improve Galleri and current and future products, and to commercialize Galleri and plan for potential commercial launches of our future and current products in other markets. The amount of our future net losses will depend, in part, on the level
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of our future expenditures and our ability to generate additional revenue. Moreover, our net losses may fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter and year to year, such that a period-to-period comparison of our results of operations may not be a good or reliable indication of our future performance.
We expect to continue to incur significant expenses and operating losses as we:
•attract, hire, and retain qualified personnel;
•seek regulatory approvals, clearances, or certifications, or coverage and reimbursement, that may be necessary or desired for our products and future products;
•conduct our ongoing clinical studies and initiate and conduct additional clinical studies to support the development and commercialization of our products and potential future products;
•continue our research and development activities;
•maintain and potentially expand our laboratory capacity and enhance operating capabilities for greater commercial scale;
•maintain sales, marketing, and distribution infrastructure for purchases of our products;
•acquire or in-license additional intellectual property and technologies;
•make milestone, royalty, or other payments due under any license or collaboration agreements;
•obtain, maintain, protect, and enforce our intellectual property portfolio, including intellectual property obtained through license agreements;
•maintain and potentially expand our facilities and infrastructure to support our continued research and development, operations and any planned commercialization efforts in the future;
•defend against any litigation, including but not limited to any patent disputes, employment matters, product liability claims or other lawsuits related to our products, our marketing, advertising, or labeling, or our clinical research;
•support international commercial expansion of our products;
•continue to engage the medical community and others to drive awareness and adoption of multi-cancer early detection (“MCED”) testing; and
•meet the requirements and demands of being a public company.
Our products or future products may not perform as expected, and the results of our clinical studies may not support the launch or use of our products or future products and may not comply with the requirements, or be replicated in later studies or in the post-market or real-world setting, required to support a commercial opportunity or for any necessary or desirable regulatory clearances, approvals, or certifications, or reimbursement or coverage.
Our success depends on our ability to provide reliable, high-quality products that perform as indicated in our product labeling, marketing, and advertising material, as well as our ability to complete clinical studies and comply with applicable regulatory requirements that enable us to commercialize our products and future products. Our commercial product, Galleri, which we have launched as a laboratory developed test (“LDT”) in the United States and for which we are pursuing a premarket approval application (“PMA”) with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) and our precision oncology portfolio, which we currently offer on a research-use-only basis, and any future products in development, may not perform as expected. Results from our ongoing or future studies, or from the post-market or real-world setting, involving current or future products or our methylation platform may be inconsistent with certain results obtained from our previous studies, or from interim results initially
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reported on those studies. In addition, results from our ongoing or future studies may not support certain product launch opportunities. For example, the NHS evaluated results of an early analysis from the first screening test (the prevalent screening round) in the NHS-Galleri Trial to determine whether the results were compelling enough to commence an implementation pilot in England prior to the final trial results. The results of this early analysis represented limited information from only one year of results out of the three-year trial period, and final results from the full three-year period may differ from the early analysis for a variety of reasons. In May 2024, the NHS determined not to initiate the pilot on the basis of those available data and will evaluate the final results from the NHS-Galleri Trial, which are expected to be available in 2026, before determining whether to implement the Galleri test in the NHS. We believe the decision will include considerations such as NHS budget, political priorities, cost-effectiveness and implementation constraints in addition to an evaluation of the final results. It is possible that the final results will be unsuitable or unavailable, which could have a significant adverse impact on the success of our commercial efforts for Galleri, our ability to achieve FDA authorization at all or within our anticipated timelines, our brand and reputation, our business, and our growth prospects. Furthermore, other studies have been or may be conducted in populations (such as our SUMMIT study which was conducted in a population of tobacco users) or under other circumstances which make their results more complicated to interpret or result in data that is more difficult to compare. In addition, as Galleri and our research-use-only offering are currently available to customers and others, any studies, including those conducted by third parties, that use our current or future products, or that examine elements of our methylation platform, may produce results that are inconsistent to evaluate independently or comparatively from our own studies. If any such inconsistent results were to be produced, either before or after launch of a product or future product, our reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects would suffer.
Our products require a number of complex and sophisticated biochemical and bioinformatics processes, which could be adversely impacted by a number of different factors. An operational or technological failure in one of these complex processes or fluctuations in external variables may result in performance characteristics, such as sensitivity or specificity rates, that are lower than we anticipate or that vary between test runs or in a higher than anticipated number of tests that fail to produce results. In addition, we continue to evaluate and refine our algorithms and other processes under development. These refinements may inadvertently result in unanticipated issues that may reduce our performance characteristics, such as sensitivity or specificity rates, or otherwise adversely affect the performance of our tests and their results. Galleri was launched in the United States as an LDT in mid-2021 and an updated version was launched in December 2024. The FDA has granted breakthrough device designation for Galleri. We plan to complete a PMA submission for a further updated version of our Galleri test. We may also be required or decide voluntarily to seek clearance or approval from the FDA for future products. However, the FDA recently finalized a regulation pursuant to which it plans to subject LDTs to medical device requirements through a phase-out of its historical policy of enforcement discretion over LDTs over a period of four years. The phase-in of medical device requirements to LDTs, including the potential requirement for FDA marketing authorization, if it imposes new, different or earlier significant obligations, will be costly and time-consuming, and if we fail to comply with such requirements, or if we cannot ultimately obtain marketing authorization for our LDTs where required, our business will be substantially harmed.
Moreover, FDA, other regulators, and notified bodies may require that we generate additional clinical data to support such clearance, approval, or certification, which could result in delays, increased costs, or other limitations or negative impacts on our ability to receive such clearance, approval, or certification, if at all, including narrowed indication or labeling than expected or desired. For additional information, see “—Risks Relating to Regulation and Legal Compliance—The regulatory clearance, approval, or certification processes of the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities are lengthy, time-consuming, and unpredictable. If we are ultimately unable to obtain any necessary or desirable regulatory approvals, clearances, or certifications, or if such approvals, clearances, or certifications are significantly delayed, our business will be substantially harmed.”
Further, we plan to improve our products to enhance performance, offerings, scalability, and/or cost of goods. However, we may not be successful in transitioning our products to a new or enhanced version or iteration. Product development involves a lengthy and complex process and we may be unable to commercialize, validate, or improve performance of any of our products on a timely basis, or at all. For example, to the extent an enhanced version of an existing product is developed, we may be required to conduct a non-inferiority study involving such enhanced version as compared to the relevant then-current version of the test using data (for example, clinical data and/or real world evidence data obtained through Galleri’s commercial use as an LDT), or could be required to undertake other regulatory requirements if the enhanced version is not considered similar enough to the then-
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current version to conduct a non-inferiority study. With respect to Galleri, we intend to conduct one or more bridging studies to measure and evaluate concordance, performance and safety of the subsequent, updated version of Galleri (for which we are submitting our PMA) using previously collected clinical study data and other samples. Any such bridging study will need to be agreed upon with regulatory authorities and may be unsuccessful or insufficient to support approval. If unsuccessful or insufficient, we would be required to revert to the existing version of the test and forego, or be delayed in, implementing any perceived or potential updates, including enhancements. Reverting to the existing version of the test may cause delays in our PMA submission timeline. Additionally, planned improvements to our products may cause unintentional technical, logistical or other issues. For example, in late 2024, we began use of a new version of Galleri in commercial channels which incorporates significant automation and is intended to enable us to scale more efficiently with future demand. In connection with implementation of this new version of Galleri, we have experienced increased turnaround times and order cancellations. If we are unable to adequately prevent these issues from occurring, or to adequately identify and remedy these issues, we may experience reputational harm, lose customers, need to offer discounts, or suffer other negative consequences. Our failure to successfully develop new and/ or improved products (including new versions of existing products) on a timely basis could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and business.
The clinical study process is lengthy and expensive with uncertain outcomes. We have encountered delays and may encounter future delays in, or unexpected data from, our clinical studies, and may therefore be unable to complete our clinical studies on the timelines we expect, if at all, which could materially and adversely impact our ability to launch our products and seek regulatory clearance or approval, or coverage and reimbursement.
Clinical testing is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to uncertainty. Initiating and completing clinical studies necessary to validate and market our products, and to support regulatory authorizations or certifications and coverage and reimbursement, will be time-consuming and expensive and the outcomes are inherently uncertain. Clinical studies must be conducted in accordance with the laws and regulations of the FDA and other applicable regulatory authorities’ legal requirements and regulations, and are subject to oversight by governmental agencies and institutional review boards (“IRBs”) or ethics committees at the medical institutions where the clinical studies are conducted.
The results of our development efforts and clinical studies of our products conducted to date and ongoing or future studies of our current or future products may not be predictive of the results of later clinical studies, and interim results of a clinical study do not necessarily predict final results. Our interpretation of data and results from our clinical studies do not ensure that we will achieve similar or favorable results in future clinical studies. In addition, clinical data are often susceptible to various interpretations, analyses, and methodological limitations, and many companies that have believed their products performed satisfactorily in earlier clinical studies have nonetheless failed to replicate results in later clinical studies. Products in later future clinical studies may fail to show the desired safety and efficacy despite having success in previous clinical studies.
In addition, we cannot guarantee that any clinical studies will be conducted as planned or completed on schedule, if at all, or within the anticipated budget. The timely completion of clinical studies in accordance with their protocols and applicable requirements depends, among other things, on our ability to enroll a sufficient number of participants who remain in the study until its conclusion. Many of our clinical studies require enrolling a large number of asymptomatic participants (i.e., individuals without symptoms of cancer) who may not see value in enrollment. Additionally, we may encounter delays as a result of the administrative complexities in managing and recruiting for studies of this scope and size. If we are unable to recruit sufficient participants for our clinical studies, including our Real-world Evidence to Advance Multi-Cancer Early Detection Health Equity (“REACH” or “Galleri-Medicare”) study, or if we are unable to maintain sufficient participation of enrolled participants to maintain statistical power for our endpoints, our product development, commercialization activities, and our ability to seek regulatory clearance or approval for our products could be delayed, require modification, or be prevented.
For example, our PMA submission for Galleri requires clinical data, including certain data from our ongoing PATHFINDER 2 study, which we are conducting under an FDA-approved Investigational Device Exemption (“IDE”) application and our NHS-Galleri Trial. We may encounter difficulties enrolling or maintaining a sufficient number of participants in our current or future studies. Delays in our studies would cause us to delay completion
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of our PMA submission for Galleri, which would negatively impact our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects.
Further, the FDA may require that we conduct additional studies or expand the enrollment of completed or ongoing studies to support our PMA, which would add significant time delay to our PMA submission, which would negatively impact our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects,
The initiation and completion of clinical studies may be prevented, delayed, or halted for numerous reasons, including as a result of the following:
•the inability to generate sufficient data to support the initiation or continuation of clinical studies;
•the inability to rely on previously-collected data on earlier versions of our products, such as Galleri, in support of the launch or submission for marketing authorization (or certification) of the later or enhanced versions of our products, including Galleri, or our other products and future products;
•the requirement to submit an IDE or comparable foreign application to the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities, which must become effective prior to commencing certain human clinical studies of medical devices, and which the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disapprove;
•delays caused by participants withdrawing from clinical studies or failing to return for follow-up or by institutions failing to submit data, including follow-up data, to us;
•delays or failure in reaching a consensus or agreement, if required, with regulatory agencies on study design or feedback from regulatory agencies necessitating changes to ongoing or planned clinical study design;
•delays or failure in reaching agreement on acceptable terms with contract research organizations (“CROs”), service providers, and clinical study sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and clinical study sites;
•delays or failure in obtaining any required IRB approval or ethics committee approval for our clinical study sites;
•delays in amending, or the inability to amend, our IRB- or ethics committee-approved protocols at clinical study sites when necessary or desired;
•difficulty or delays in collaborating with sites, institutions, and investigators;
•failure by us, investigators, sites, or participants to comply with the applicable study protocol or applicable regulatory requirements and standards for data collection, reporting, records maintenance, or data integrity;
•failure by us or any CROs or other third parties to adhere to clinical study requirements, including the applicable protocol;
•failure to perform in accordance with good clinical practice (“GCP”) and good laboratory practice (“GLP”) requirements, and/or other applicable regulations and requirements of the FDA or other applicable governmental authorities; failure to comply with applicable data privacy and security laws, including laws related to processing of special categories of personal data clinical studies such as the European Union’s (“EU”) General Data Protection Regulation (“EU GDPR”) or United Kingdom’s General Data Protection Regulation and the Data Protection Act 2018 (“UK GDPR”) (the UK GDPR and EU GDPR together referred to as the “GDPR”);
•challenges caused by transferring personal information or biological samples from the EU, United Kingdom, or other countries to our systems or facilities in the United States for processing or to regulatory authorities;
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•failure of our products and future products to achieve acceptable performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and/or safety endpoints;
•unacceptable safety findings, including findings related to the risk, such as higher likelihood, of false positive test results (which could lead to unnecessary confirmatory testing, such as biopsy, or anxiety) or false negative test results (which could lead to foregoing standard of care screening, a delay in diagnosis or disease progression);
•termination or suspension of a study or site by us or the data safety monitoring board (or independent data monitoring committee), suspension or termination of a study or site by an IRB, ethics committee, or institution, or clinical hold or termination of a study or site by a regulatory authority, including the FDA;
•our inability to collaborate with clinical investigators, including if they are disqualified, terminated, suspended, or change affiliated institutions;
•adverse inspections of our clinical study sites or results by any applicable regulatory authority, including the FDA, NHS, or United Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency;
•changes in statutory or regulatory requirements or guidance, or clinical guidelines, that require amending existing or designing new clinical protocols, obtaining new IRB or ethics committee approvals, modifying our clinical studies, modifying our consent process or obtaining additional consent from study participants, or altering the pathway to clearance, approval, or certification of our products and future products;
•changes in the standard of care on which a clinical development plan was based, which may require new or additional clinical studies;
•the cost of clinical studies of our products and future products being greater than we anticipate;
•destruction or compromise of, or other inability to access or receive, clinical study samples processed, stored, managed, or otherwise in the control of a clinical site or other third party;
•determination that data from research conducted outside the United States, including the NHS-Galleri Trial, does not meet the FDA’s requirements for submission and support of a marketing authorization or future clinical study IDE application, for example because the foreign data are not applicable to the U.S. population and U.S. medical practice, the studies have been performed by clinical investigators of unsuitable competence, or the FDA cannot validate the data through an on-site inspection or other appropriate means;
•clinical studies of our products and future products producing negative or inconclusive results, which may result in our deciding, or regulators requiring us, to conduct additional clinical studies or abandon development programs; and
•lack of adequate funding.
Any such delays could adversely affect the costs, timing, or successful completion of our clinical studies. Moreover, we depend on our collaborators and on medical and clinical institutions and CROs to conduct our clinical studies in compliance with applicable GCP and other regulatory requirements, and while we have agreements governing their committed activities, we have limited influence over their actual performance. To the extent we, our collaborators or the CROs fail to enroll participants for our clinical studies, fail to conduct the study according to applicable GCP or other regulatory requirements, or are delayed for a significant time in the execution of studies, including achieving full enrollment, we may be affected by increased costs, program delays, enforcement actions, or a determination that the data are unusable for regulatory or product development purposes. In addition, clinical studies that are conducted in countries outside the United States may subject us to further delays and expenses. In addition, our precision oncology offering is highly dependent on collaborations with select, leading biopharmaceutical companies. To the extent our collaborators experience any of delays, halts, unexpected data or other issues in the trials they collaborate on with us, we may be similarly delayed or halted in
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validating or generating revenue from our precision oncology offering, and we could experience reputational or other harms.
Any inability to initiate or complete clinical studies successfully could result in additional costs to us, slow down or prevent our product development and receipt of positive reimbursement coverage decisions, or impair our ability to generate revenue. Delays in initiating or completing our planned clinical studies could also allow third parties to bring products to market sooner than expected, which could impair our ability to successfully commercialize our products and future products, if launched, and may harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects. In addition, many of the factors that may cause, or lead to, a delay in initiation or completion of clinical studies may also ultimately lead to the delay or the narrowing or denial of any regulatory clearance, approval, or certification we may seek with respect to our products and future products. Delays in the initiation or completion of any clinical study of our products or future products in development, such as Galleri or our precision oncology portfolio, or seeking broad coverage and reimbursement, will increase our costs, slow down or jeopardize our product development and regulatory clearance, approval, or certification process, and delay or potentially jeopardize broad adoption of our products and future products and their ability to generate revenue.
A substantial majority of our revenue is generated from sales of Galleri and we are highly dependent on it for our success.
We began selling Galleri in the United States in mid-2021. Sales of Galleri accounted for a substantial majority of our revenue to date and we expect that such sales will continue to account for the substantial majority of our revenue for the foreseeable future. Our ability to execute our growth strategy and become profitable will therefore depend upon the adoption of Galleri as a widely used MCED test. Continued adoption and use of Galleri will depend on several factors discussed in these risk factors and in the section titled Management’s Discussion and Analysis, including, among others, our ability to successfully fulfill test orders, the prices we charge for our tests, the scope of coverage and amount of reimbursement available from third-party payors, including managed care organizations, private health insurers, and government healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid in the United States and similar programs in other countries, the availability of clinical and real-world data that supports the value and impact of our tests, and the extent to which our tests receive FDA authorization or a USPSTF grade A or B recommendation. We cannot assure you that Galleri will continue to maintain or gain market acceptance, and any failure to do so would harm our business and results of operations.
One of the key elements of our strategy is to expand access to our tests by pursuing coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors, both private and government payors. If our products do not receive adequate coverage and reimbursement, if at all, from third-party payors, our ability to expand access to our products beyond our existing sales channels will be limited and our overall commercial success will be limited.
We have established private reimbursement for Galleri from a number of third-party payors in the United States, but do not currently have broader coverage and reimbursement by government healthcare programs, such as Medicare. A key element of our strategy is to expand access to our tests by pursuing broad coverage and reimbursement by third-party payors, including government payors. Coverage and reimbursement by third-party payors, including managed care organizations, private health insurers, and government healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid in the United States and similar programs in other countries, for early detection tests we offer or are planning to offer, can be limited and uncertain. Healthcare providers may not order our products unless third-party payors cover and provide adequate reimbursement rates for a substantial portion of the price of our products. If we are not able to obtain adequate coverage and an acceptable level of reimbursement for our products from third-party payors, there could be a greater co-insurance or co-payment obligation for any individual for whom a test is ordered. The individual may be forced to pay the entire cost of a test out-of-pocket, which could dissuade physicians from ordering our products and, if ordered, could result in delay in or decreased likelihood of our collection of payment. We believe our revenue and revenue growth will depend on our success in achieving coverage and adequate reimbursement for our products from third-party payors.
Medicare is the single largest U.S. payor and a particularly important payor for many cancer-related laboratory services given the demographics of the Medicare population. Traditional fee-for-service Medicare
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generally does not cover screening tests, which are considered preventive services, that are performed in the absence of signs or symptoms of illness or injury, unless there is a statutory provision that explicitly authorizes coverage of the test. The Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act of 2008 authorizes the CMS to cover additional preventive services that are not expressly covered by the statute if the service is (a) reasonable and necessary for the prevention or early detection of an illness or disability, (b) recommended with a grade of A or B by the USPSTF, and (c) appropriate for Medicare beneficiaries under Part A or Part B. CMS establishes coverage through a national coverage determination (“NCD”) process, which generally requires, or is significantly more likely following, FDA approval. In its discretion, the USPSTF generally waits for FDA authorization before it considers undertaking reviews of novel technology. Galleri and certain other future products could be considered screening tests under Medicare and, accordingly, are and may not be eligible for traditional Medicare fee-for-service coverage and reimbursement unless we pursue substantial additional measures, including, but not limited to, securing FDA authorization of Galleri and other future products, followed by obtaining a grade A or B recommendation from the USPSTF, in an effort to enable CMS to issue an NCD. Historically, USPSTF has only provided grade A or B recommendations on the basis of evidence packages that include mortality data, which would require significant long-term follow up. Medicare coverage can also be changed by statute, and another possible pathway for Medicare reimbursement would be to amend the Medicare statute to cover MCED testing. This process would generally require new legislation to expressly authorize CMS to cover FDA-approved early cancer screening and detection tests. We are working with stakeholders to advance and shape the public reimbursement landscape, including through proposed legislation with bipartisan sponsorship, to reflect that additional scope of coverage. However, even if we are successful in obtaining an NCD on the basis of the new reimbursement landscape envisioned by this legislation, we intend to seek a USPSTF grade for Galleri. If we receive an NCD for Galleri or our other products and subsequently receive a USPSTF grade lower than A or B, it is possible that CMS would rescind the NCD. Further, the political climate is dynamic, and support for this legislation among legislators and stakeholders may change over time and such legislation may never be enacted, may be significantly delayed in being enacted, or may be enacted in a different form, including narrower or less favorable terms, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects. For example, bipartisan supported legislation backed by stakeholders has been discussed for inclusion in multiple bills but has not yet been included in the final version of any bill put forward for a vote. Any of these efforts, individually and together, require significant investments and resources, and may ultimately be unsuccessful or may take several years, if at all, to achieve.
If the USPSTF does not recommend any of our products with a grade of A or B, CMS declines to initiate an NCD, CMS decides to rescind a prior NCD, or the decision regarding an NCD is negative, the impacted product would not be eligible for fee-for-service Medicare coverage in the absence of a new statutory provision providing for coverage. Even if the USPSTF were to recommend Galleri or other products we are developing, the USPSTF review process and the ensuing NCD process by CMS could take several years to complete, and coverage for our products would be delayed while review is ongoing. The Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) mandates that many private insurance plans cover, among other preventive health services, evidence-based items or services recommended by USPSTF with a grade of A or B, with certain prohibitions on cost-sharing requirements. Accordingly, if USPSTF does not recommend use of Galleri or other products we are developing or requires a substantial amount of time to review such products, our business and results of our operations would be harmed. Coverage and adequate reimbursement under Medicare are also uncertain as discussed further in “Business— Government Regulations—Coverage and Reimbursement” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
If eligible for reimbursement, laboratory tests including ours are generally classified for reimbursement purposes under CMS’s Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (“HCPCS”) and the American Medical Association’s (“AMA”) Current Procedural Terminology (“CPT”) coding systems. We and payors must use those coding systems to bill and pay for our diagnostic tests, respectively. These HCPCS and CPT codes are associated with the particular product or service that is provided to the individual. Accordingly, without a HCPCS or CPT code applicable to our products, the submission of claims would be a significant challenge. Once CMS creates an HCPCS code or the AMA establishes a CPT code, CMS establishes payment rates and coverage rules under traditional Medicare, and private payors establish rates and coverage rules independently. Under Medicare, payment for laboratory tests is generally made under the Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule (“CLFS”) with payment amounts assigned to specific HCPCS and CPT codes. In addition, effective January 1, 2018, a new Medicare payment methodology went into effect for clinical laboratory tests, under which laboratory-reported private payor rates are used to establish Medicare payment rates for tests reimbursed via the Medicare Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule. The new methodology implements Section 216 of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014
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(“PAMA”) and requires laboratories that meet certain requirements related to volume and type of Medicare revenues to report to CMS their private payor payment rates for each test they perform, the volume of tests paid at each rate, and the HCPCS code associated with the test. CMS uses the reported information to set the payment rate for each test at the weighted median private payor rate. Most affected tests are revalued every three years. A series of legislative amendments delayed the next PAMA reporting period to January 1, 2024 through March 31, 2024, which will cover the original data collection period of January 1, 2019 through June 30, 2019. New CLFS rates for clinical diagnostic laboratory tests (“CDLTs”) will be established based on that data beginning in 2025, subject to phase-in limits. As a result, Medicare payment rates determined by data reported in 2017 continued through December 31, 2024. In addition, under PAMA, as amended, the payment reduction cap will be 15% per test per year in each of the years 2024 through 2026. PAMA also authorized the adoption of new, temporary billing codes and unique test identifiers for FDA-cleared or approved tests, as well as advanced diagnostic laboratory tests (“ADLTs”). The AMA’s CPT Editorial Panel approved a proposal to create a new section of billing codes called Proprietary Laboratory Analyses (“PLA”) codes, to facilitate implementation of this section of PAMA. The full impact of the PAMA rate-setting methodology and its applicability to our products remains uncertain at this time.
Coverage and reimbursement by a third-party payor may depend on a number of factors, including a payor’s determination that a product is appropriate, medically necessary, and cost-effective. Each payor will make its own decision as to whether to establish a policy or enter into a contract to cover our products and the amount it will reimburse for such products. Any determination by a payor to cover and the amount for which it will reimburse our products would likely be made on an indication-by-indication basis. For example, we may face additional scrutiny in obtaining coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors given the additional costs of further diagnostic workup in the event the test is deployed at scale, including as a result of the false positive rate. As a result, obtaining approvals from third-party payors to cover our products and establishing adequate coding recognition and reimbursement levels is an unpredictable, challenging, time-consuming, and costly process and we may never be successful. If third-party payors do not provide adequate coverage and reimbursement for our products, our ability to succeed commercially will be limited.
Even if we establish relationships with payors to provide our products at negotiated rates, such agreements would not obligate any healthcare providers to order our products or guarantee that we would receive reimbursement for our products from these or any other payors at adequate levels. Thus, these payor relationships may not result in revenues for our products in line with our expectations, including for Galleri, any other current or future products or future versions of Galleri. We believe it may take several years to achieve coverage and adequate reimbursement with a majority of third-party payors, including with those payors offering negotiated rates. In addition, we cannot predict whether, under what circumstances, or at what payment levels payors will cover and reimburse our products. Although we do not expect Galleri to have Medicare or other broad third-party coverage or reimbursement in the near term, we will continue to market our product to health systems, large self-insured employers, life insurance providers, physician directed channels, health plans, and additional at-risk groups such as first responders, including firefighters. If we fail to establish and maintain coverage and reimbursement for our products, our ability to expand access to our products, generate increased revenue, and grow our test volume and customer base will be limited and our overall commercial success and growth prospects will be limited.
Our commercial products may fail to achieve the degree of market acceptance necessary for commercial success.
The commercial success of any of our marketed products, including Galleri and our precision oncology portfolio, or future products will depend on the degree of market acceptance by consumers, including self-insured employers, health systems, healthcare providers, life insurance companies, patients, and, over the longer-term, third-party payors. The degree of market acceptance of our products will depend on a number of factors, including:
•the performance, validation, and clinical utility of such products as demonstrated in clinical studies, from real-world use, and published in peer-reviewed journals;
•our ability to demonstrate the clinical validation and utility of our products and their potential advantages to the medical community;
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•the ability of our products to demonstrate comparable or non-inferior performance in real-world intended use populations as in clinical studies;
•the willingness of consumers, including self-insured employers, health systems, healthcare providers, life insurance companies, patients, and others in the medical community to utilize our products;
•the willingness of commercial third-party payors and government payors to cover and reimburse our products, the scope and amount of which will affect an individual’s or entity’s willingness or ability to pay for our products and likely heavily influence healthcare providers’ decisions to recommend our products;
•willingness of providers, patients, and others to learn about our products, and establish a sense of understanding and confidence in the use of our products;
•with respect to Galleri, which was launched as an LDT in the United States for use in an asymptomatic population, the concern that the product could lead to unnecessary medical screening procedures or a high false positive rate and the associated costs of unnecessary workups resulting from false positives;
•the belief of providers, patients, and others that the use of Galleri in its intended use population is clinically appropriate, and not restricting its use to a narrower intended population;
•the introduction or market acceptance of future third-party products, including the expansion of the capabilities of existing products and tests that are reimbursed;
•the ability of our partners and our employees and contractors to ensure the safety and privacy of our patient data;
•publicity (adverse or positive) concerning our products or operations (including third-party partners, patient-facing service providers, vendors, or suppliers) or future third-party products, including adverse publicity resulting from the use of our products or offerings by third parties, including partners;
•our ability to fulfill test orders in a timely manner; and
•the strength of our marketing and distribution support and patient-facing service providers.
The failure of our products, once introduced, to be listed in physician guidelines or of our studies to produce favorable and consistent results or to be published in peer-reviewed journals could limit the adoption of our products. In addition, healthcare providers and third-party payors, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”), may rely on physician guidelines issued by industry groups, medical societies, and other key organizations, such as the United States Preventive Services Task Force (“USPSTF”), an independent, volunteer panel of experts in the field of prevention, evidence-based medicine and primary care, before utilizing or reimbursing the cost of any diagnostic or screening test. Although we have completed our PATHFINDER study and have a number of a clinical studies underway designed to evaluate the clinical validity of Galleri, our product is not yet, and may never be, listed in any such guidelines, even if approved by the FDA.
Further, if our products or the technology underlying them do not receive sufficient favorable exposure in peer-reviewed publications, the rate of physician and market acceptance of our products and positive reimbursement coverage decisions for our products could be negatively affected. The publication of clinical data in peer-reviewed journals is a crucial step in commercializing and helping obtain reimbursement for products, and our inability to control when, if ever, results are published, if positive, may delay or limit our ability to derive sufficient revenues from any product that is developed using data from a clinical study.
Additionally, we believe that FDA approval for Galleri may provide clinical and regulatory credibility and validation in the view of providers, third-party payors, and others, and our failure to achieve FDA approval, at all or within our anticipated timelines or with an adequate approved label, could limit adoption of Galleri, even if we continue to publish data on its clinical validity and utility in peer-reviewed journals. Our PMA submission and a potential subsequent rejection or material delay, including a requirement by the FDA to conduct additional studies or expand the enrollment of completed or ongoing studies, may reflect negatively on Galleri and the ongoing and
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planned clinical studies used to support our PMA submission, which could lead healthcare providers, payors, and others to lose confidence in the utility or benefit of Galleri and our other products and future products.
Failure to achieve broad market acceptance of our products would materially harm our business, financial condition, and results of operations.
We may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to offset our ongoing operating expenses and achieve and maintain profitability, and it may be difficult for us to offset the costs of our royalties, including the high single-digit royalty that we will be required to pay to Illumina in perpetuity or our royalties payable to the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Our ability to generate future revenue growth from product sales and achieve profitability depends on our ability to continue commercializing our products. We may not be able to generate sufficient revenues to offset our costs of developing and offering our products or achieve or maintain profitability on any products, and revenues from precision oncology may not be a significant source of our overall revenue in the future. Further, we cannot assure you that we will successfully be able to launch any future products as planned, if at all, and our failure to do so may prevent us from generating increased revenue. Even if we are able to launch future products in a timely manner, we may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to offset our costs and achieve profitability. Our ability to generate future revenue growth from product sales depends heavily on our success in:
•continuing clinical development, validation, and demonstration of the clinical utility of our products and future products and continuing to improve product performance and expand product features over time;
•seeking, obtaining, and maintaining marketing authorizations or certifications that may be necessary or desired for any versions of Galleri and any future products that we develop;
•launching and commercializing our products by maintaining and expanding our sales force, marketing, medical affairs, and distribution infrastructure, and collaborating with commercialization partners;
•investing in and enhancing our proprietary methylation platform, and enhancing later versions of our existing and future products and offerings;
•obtaining market acceptance by consumers, including self-insured employers, health systems, healthcare providers, life insurance companies, patients, and third-party payors;
•establishing and maintaining supply and manufacturing relationships with third parties that can timely and consistently provide adequate, in both amount and quality, products and services to support clinical development and the market demand for Galleri, our precision oncology portfolio, and, if launched, future versions of Galleri or other future products;
•achieving adequate coverage and reimbursement from government healthcare programs, health insurance organizations, and other third-party payors for products that we launch;
•achieving sufficient efficiencies and cost management strategies in our laboratory, supply chain, and elsewhere to maintain an appropriate cost of goods sold to offer our products at an acceptable price in a pre-reimbursement environment;
•addressing any technological and market developments;
•negotiating favorable terms in any collaboration, licensing, or other arrangements into which we may enter and maintaining such existing or future arrangements;
•maintaining, protecting, and expanding our portfolio of intellectual property rights, including patents, trade secrets, know-how, and trademarks;
•the potential cost of and delays in product development as a result of any regulatory oversight applicable to our existing and future products and offerings;
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•defending against third-party interference, invalidation, or infringement claims, if any; and
•attracting, hiring, and retaining qualified personnel.
We anticipate incurring significant costs to continue commercializing our products. Our expenses could increase beyond expectations if we are required by the FDA or other regulatory agencies, or notified bodies to delay the launch of any new products, narrow or change our intended use or product claims, and modify or expand our clinical studies or to perform additional clinical studies, either pre- or post-approval (or certification), in addition to those that we currently anticipate. Additionally, it may be difficult for us to offset the costs of the high-single-digit royalty that we will be required to pay under our agreement with Illumina in perpetuity. For more information, see “Business—Operations—Supply Chain and Agreement” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Under the terms of our license agreements with the Chinese University of Hong Kong, we are also required to pay a low single-digit royalty on net sales of our products that use the technology we license from Chinese University of Hong Kong, subject to minimum annual guarantees. Our payment obligations with respect to each license from the Chinese University of Hong Kong for each product containing any licensed technology extends until the expiration or termination of such license, which shall be the later of a low double-digit number of years from our payment of the license issue fee or expiration of the last-to-expire licensed patent. Although certain provisions in our agreement with Illumina allow us to reduce our royalty to Illumina by up to a low single-digit percentage due to third party royalties actually paid, such as our royalty payment to Chinese University of Hong Kong, our obligation to pay this royalty on our net sales could reduce our gross margins and increase our expenses. See the section titled “Business—Intellectual Property—License Agreements with the Chinese University of Hong Kong” in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
We will need to generate significant additional revenue to achieve and maintain profitability and will need to obtain additional funding to continue operations. Even if we achieve profitability, we cannot be sure that we will remain profitable for any substantial period of time. We may never be able to generate sufficient revenue to achieve or maintain profitability and our recent and historical growth should not be considered indicative of our future performance. If we do not achieve or maintain profitability, it will be more difficult for us to finance our business and accomplish our strategic objectives, either of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects.
We may be unable to develop and commercialize new products, including enhanced versions of current products.
Although we reduced investment in the development of products beyond Galleri as part of the Restructuring Plan, including in a diagnostic aid product for cancer and our precision oncology portfolio, we are continuing research and development of our proprietary methylation platform and our large clinical and genomic datasets to develop enhanced versions of Galleri. In the future, we may determine to invest further in new product development. The commercialization of any new products, including enhanced versions of current products, will require the completion of certain clinical development activities, regulatory activities, and the expenditure of additional cash resources. We cannot assure you that we can successfully complete these activities for any such products. For example, to the extent an enhanced version of an existing product is developed, we intend to undertake one or more bridging studies to measure and evaluate concordance, performance and safety of the subsequent, enhanced version of our product versus the existing product, using previously collected clinical study data and other samples. Any such bridging study will need to be agreed upon with regulatory authorities and may be unsuccessful or insufficient to support approval of any such subsequent, enhanced version of our products.
We cannot ensure that we will generate sufficient revenue from products that we successfully commercialize or otherwise mitigate the risks associated with our business to raise enough capital to develop and commercialize new products. In addition, once our development efforts for a product are completed, commercialization efforts, including allocation of resources necessary to comply with applicable laws and regulations, will require significant expenditures. Any failure to develop, obtain necessary marketing authorizations for, or commercialize new products, and meet and continue compliance with applicable laws and regulations, could have a material adverse effect on our ability to implement our strategy and grow our business.
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If similar third-party products are developed and do not perform as intended or cause harm or injury to patients, the market for our products could be impaired.
Many companies are attempting to develop competing cancer detection tests and technologies focused on improving cancer care with early cancer detection tests and post-diagnostic products. If any of these tests do not perform to expectations or cause harm or injury to patients, it may result in lower clinical and consumer confidence in early cancer detection and precision medicine in general, which could potentially adversely affect confidence in our products. As a result, the failure of any competing products to perform as expected could significantly adversely affect public perception about cancer detection tests generally, including our products, and could significantly impair our reputation and operating results.
If we fail to obtain additional financing, we may be unable to expand our commercialization efforts with respect to Galleri and any other products that we successfully develop and commercialize, or to develop additional products.
Our operations have required substantial amounts of cash since inception. To date, we have financed our operations primarily through the sale of equity securities and capital contributions from Illumina and, to a lesser extent, revenue derived from Galleri sales and precision oncology portfolio revenue. Our product development and clinical study activities are expensive, and we expect to continue to spend substantial amounts as we expand our commercialization efforts with respect to Galleri, including pursuing broader coverage and reimbursement, continue to enhance our core technology platform, broaden the applications of our technology platform, and develop new products in the future. In addition, obtaining any necessary or desirable regulatory approvals, clearances, or certifications, as well as coverage and reimbursement, for our products will require substantial additional funding.
As of December 31, 2024, we had $214.2 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities of $549.2 million. We believe that our existing cash and cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities will be sufficient to fund our projected operations for at least the next 12 months. Our estimate as to how long we expect our existing cash, cash equivalents, and short-term marketable securities to be available to fund our operations is based on assumptions that may prove to be inaccurate, and we could use our available capital resources sooner than we currently expect. In addition, changing circumstances may cause us to increase our spending significantly faster than we currently anticipate, and we may need to spend more money than currently expected because of circumstances beyond our control. We may need to raise additional funds sooner than we anticipate.
We will require additional capital to expand the commercialization of Galleri and our precision oncology portfolio, and for the development and commercialization of future products. Our future capital requirements depend on many additional factors, including:
•the cost of development and commercialization activities for our products, including Galleri and our precision oncology portfolio and our future products, including marketing, sales, and distribution costs;
•the cost related to continued scaling operations to support demand for our products, including the cost of operating our laboratory in Durham, North Carolina;
•the timing of, and the costs involved in, obtaining any required or desired regulatory approvals, clearances, or certifications for our products;
•the timing, scope, progress, results, and costs of developing additional products and conducting clinical studies;
•the costs involved in preparing, filing, prosecuting, maintaining, expanding, defending, and enforcing patent and other intellectual property rights and claims, including litigation costs and the outcome of such litigation;
•the timing and amount of sales of our products and collection of related receivables;
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•the extent to which our products are eligible for coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors;
•the emergence of new technologies, products, or services and other adverse market developments; and
•other potential adverse developments.
Additional capital may not be available when we need it, on terms acceptable to us or at all. We have no committed source of additional capital, other than the funds to be committed by Illumina as described above. Furthermore, any additional capital raised through the sale of equity or equity-linked securities will dilute stockholders’ ownership interests in us, may require stockholder approval, may have an adverse effect on the price of our common stock, and holders of these securities may have rights, preferences or privileges senior to those of our then-existing stockholders. Debt financing, if available, may include restrictive covenants that could limit how we conduct our business and limit our ability to further raise capital, and if available, may be available only on undesirable terms, particularly as we would borrow as an independent company and not a subsidiary of Illumina. If adequate capital is not available to us on a timely basis, we may be required to significantly delay, scale back, or discontinue the commercialization of our products or research and development programs, or be unable to continue or expand our operations or otherwise capitalize on our business opportunities, as desired, which could materially affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects and cause the price of our common stock to decline.
As a result of the Spin-Off, we are subject to a number of limitations and risks that may impact our ability to obtain additional financing. For example, certain restrictions under the Tax Matters Agreement limit our ability to obtain additional financing, including offerings of common stock, or otherwise require that we undertake certain procedures with Illumina. In addition, certain terms of the Spin-Off may impact our ability to successfully obtain financing on favorable terms or at all. For example, in connection with the Spin-Off, Illumina provided us with disposal funding in the amount of $932.3 million in accordance of the Separation and Distribution Agreement, subject to a clawback feature in the event that the Company (i) consummates a GRAIL Change of Control, or (ii) (1) pays any dividend on, or makes any other distribution in respect of, any shares of its capital stock or other equity or voting interests (other than a stock dividend or a stock split), or otherwise consummates a return of capital from GRAIL to any of its equity holders or (2) redeems, purchases or otherwise acquires any of its outstanding shares of capital stock or other equity or voting interests, in each case prior to the 15-month anniversary of the Distribution Date. If the Company consummates a transaction described in the foregoing clause (i) prior to the 15-month anniversary of the Distribution Date, the Company must return to Illumina a cash amount calculated by reference to the number of months which have elapsed since June 24, 2024 at the time of the public announcement of the event giving rise to such transaction. If the Company consummates a transaction described in the foregoing clause (ii) prior to the 15-month anniversary of the Distribution Date, the Company must return to Illumina a cash amount equal to the payments made by the Company in connection with such transaction up to an aggregate maximum amount equal to the amount of the initial disposal funding subject to a clawback feature in the event of a change in control, or the Company (1) pays any dividend on, or makes any other distribution in respect of, any shares of its capital stock or other equity or voting interests (other than a stock dividend or a stock split), or otherwise consummates a return of capital from GRAIL to any of its equity holders or (2) redeems, purchases or otherwise acquires any of its outstanding shares of capital stock or other equity or voting interests, prior to September 24, 2025. If these clawback features are triggered, we must return to Illumina the aggregate amount of payments to equity holders as a result of or in connection with such a transaction. Additionally, in connection with certain change of control transactions prior to September 24, 2025, we must return to Illumina a cash amount decreasing over time calculated by reference to the number of months which have elapsed since June 24, 2024 at the time of the public announcement of the event giving rise to the change of control. These restrictions under these agreements may impact our ability to obtain additional financing when needed, if at all, and, if we are required to repay any disposal funds to Illumina under the clawback provision, our cash balance will be reduced and we may have greater need for additional financing.
If our products result in direct or indirect participant or patient harm or injury, we could be subject to significant reputational and liability risks.
Our success will depend on the market’s confidence that our products, including Galleri and, if successfully developed and launched, further enhanced versions of Galleri, and our precision oncology portfolio can provide reliable, high-quality results. We believe that participants, patients, customers, physicians, and regulators are
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likely to be sensitive to errors in the use of our products or failure of our products to perform as described, and there can be no guarantee that our products will meet expectations. Galleri is intended to be used to detect a cancer signal in individuals, but its results are not intended to be diagnostic. If a cancer signal is detected, the product is used to localize the origin of the cancer signal; a “cancer signal detected” test result must be followed up by appropriate diagnostic workup. Because the product cannot detect all cancer signals, and may not detect signals for all cancer types, a negative test does not rule out the presence of cancer. Additionally, an individual undergoing unnecessary diagnostic tests on the basis of a false positive result or an erroneous cancer signal origin result could expose us to reputational risks and potential liability. Similarly, an individual who receives a cancer diagnosis shortly following a “no cancer signal detected” test result may create negative publicity about our product, which would discourage adoption. Performance failures could establish a negative perception of our products among physicians, patients, customers, and regulators, jeopardize our ability to successfully commercialize our products, impair our ability to obtain marketing authorizations or secure favorable coverage and reimbursement, or otherwise result in reputational harm or enforcement action or inquiry by a regulatory body. These risks may be more pronounced for certain applications in our precision oncology portfolio, such as companion diagnostic development, as our products would be directly involved with the choice to use certain treatments in a particular case. In addition, we may be subject to legal claims arising from any errors in the use, manufacture, design, labeling, marketing, or performance of our products, including false positive or false negative results. If our products result in direct or indirect participant or patient harm or injury, we could be subject to significant reputational and liability risks, and our reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects could be materially adversely affected.
We rely on Illumina as a sole supplier for our next-generation sequencers and associated reagents, Madison Industries (“Madison”) (who acquired our blood collection tube manufacturer, Streck, Inc., in 2023) as a sole supplier of our blood collection tubes, and Twist Bioscience Corporation (“Twist”) as a sole supplier of our DNA panels. Additionally, we rely on a limited number of suppliers for some of our laboratory instruments and reagents, and we may not be able to immediately find replacements if necessary.
We rely on Illumina as the sole supplier of the next-generation sequencers and associated Illumina-supplied reagents we use to perform our genomic tests and as the sole provider of servicing, including maintenance and repair services for these sequencers. Additionally, as a part of the Spin-Off, Illumina distributed 85.5% of its holdings of the Company to its shareholders but remained a significant shareholder through its retention of 14.5% of our outstanding shares immediately following the Spin-Off and we are party to a number of agreements with Illumina entered into in connection with the Spin-Off. Any disruption or interruption in Illumina’s operations, Illumina’s breach of our supply-related agreements or disputes arising between the parties would impact our supply chain and laboratory operations. We also rely on Madison as the sole supplier of our blood collection tubes and Twist as the sole supplier of our DNA panels. We rely on other vendors as sole suppliers, including for machinery, reagents, magnetic beads, tubes and other supplies used in our laboratory workflows although we believe we are less reliant on their offerings than the vendors named above. A disruption or interruption in supply from these vendors could delay our ability to continue laboratory operations, and develop and commercialize any other future products. Any such disruption or interruption in supply, quality, or servicing would adversely affect our commercial partnerships, our ability to continue supporting clinical studies and conduct new studies, our reputation, and could impact our timing for regulatory authorization and coverage and reimbursement.
Further, we are in the process of submitting a PMA for Galleri to the FDA. We may similarly seek FDA authorization for future products. For products or components supplied to us by Illumina, we have not negotiated the use of all of their products in any product we intend to submit for an FDA marketing authorization. We are cooperating with Madison to obtain FDA clearance or approval for their blood collection tubes for use with our products. In some cases, use of these third-party products in any FDA-cleared or approved product we may seek to commercialize will be conditioned on these suppliers having obtained FDA clearance or approval for their products for the uses of those third-party products as intended with ours. Before we pursue approval for our products that incorporate or use materials supplied to us by these suppliers, we will need to negotiate and execute agreements with these parties and in some cases may need to ensure these products have obtained the requisite clearances or approvals for the intended uses with our products. Any failures or delays in negotiating agreements with our suppliers on reasonable terms, or their inability to obtain any required clearances or approvals, may increase our costs or delay or prevent us from obtaining approval of, and thus successfully commercializing, our products. For example, any changes to the material used in our laboratory workflow may
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require us to supplement or revise the information contained in any PMA or other application, which could increase our costs and delay our efforts to obtain approval for Galleri, and could delay our implementation of the material into our workflow.
Moreover, products supplied to us for use in our LDT products may be currently available to us as RUO products, which means, among other things, that the third-party supplier intends for the products not to be used for clinical use and that the products must be labeled “For Research Use Only. Not for use in diagnostic procedures.” If the FDA were to take enforcement action against us or our suppliers for our use of RUO products in connection with our products and future products that we intend to use for clinical purposes, including our launch of LDTs, such action could require us to seek alternative suppliers and thus materially and adversely affect our ability to provide such products to our customers and could significantly increase our costs of conducting business. Products for FDA-approved or cleared in vitro diagnostic use generally have significantly higher costs than LDT uses, which, in turn, are more costly than products intended for RUO.
Our current suppliers, including Illumina, Madison, or Twist, may also discontinue or substantially change the specification of products that we utilize or intend to utilize in our products and future products. While we believe other suppliers exist that are capable of supplying and servicing the equipment and materials necessary for our products and laboratory operations, including certain instruments, components, consumables, and reagents, qualifying, contracting with, validating, and transitioning to any such new suppliers could temporarily result in interruptions in or otherwise affect our ability to manufacture and commercialize products or the performance specifications of our laboratory operations and sample processing or, if we receive FDA authorization for our current or future products, could require that we revalidate such products or submit such changes for regulatory authorization by the FDA. For example, we have used, currently use and expect to continue to use Madison blood collection tubes for all of our prior, ongoing, and planned clinical studies that support product development and validation. It may be difficult to engage with another supplier who can provide the same products and with the same quality and availability as Madison, which could significantly delay our clinical studies and ability to process tests, and materially adversely impact our business. In addition, we purchase certain products on a purchase order basis and cannot guarantee a consistent source of supply. The use of equipment or materials provided by a replacement supplier could require us to alter our laboratory operations and sample collection and processing and related procedures. In the case of attempting to obtain an alternative supplier for Illumina, Madison, or Twist, replacement instruments and associated reagents, tubes, and panels that meet our quality control and performance requirements may not be immediately available. If we encounter delays or difficulties in securing, reconfiguring or revalidating the equipment, reagents, and other materials that we require for our tests, laboratory operations and sample collection and processing, we would likely face significant delays in ongoing clinical studies or conducting new studies, commercializing our products and our reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects would be adversely affected.
If our facilities become inoperable, our ability to provide our products will be significantly impaired and our business will be harmed.
We currently conduct commercial testing work, for our products, including Galleri, in our laboratory located in Durham, North Carolina and additionally perform certain research and development in our laboratory in Menlo Park, California. We also have offices in Washington D.C. and the United Kingdom, which is important to our international operations. The facilities may be harmed, rendered inoperable by physical damage or otherwise become partially or completely unusable due to fire, floods, earthquakes, power loss, telecommunications failures, break-ins, accidents, pandemics, and similar events, which may render it difficult or impossible for us to provide our products for some period of time. Our laboratories and the equipment we use to perform our research and development or commercial work could be unavailable or costly and time-consuming to repair or replace. It would be difficult, time-consuming, and expensive to rebuild our facilities, particularly in light of the licensure, permits, and accreditation requirements for clinical laboratories like ours. For example, the development and commercial test processing activities for Galleri, and future potential commercial launch of future products, are dependent on the operation of our Durham, North Carolina laboratory, which received Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988 (“CLIA”) certification to perform high-complexity training, and College of American Pathologists (“CAP”) accreditation. In particular, as part of the Restructuring Plan, we have consolidated the processing of commercial Galleri tests in this facility and no longer process commercial Galleri tests in our Menlo Park Facility. As a result, any disruption at our North Carolina facility could materially adversely affect our ability to process tests and return results to patients, and our revenue, operations, business and prospects could be
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materially harmed. Although we carry insurance for damage to our properties and the disruption of our business, this insurance may not be sufficient to cover all of our potential losses and may not continue to be available to us on acceptable terms, or at all.
Our operations and business are materially dependent on various third parties, including information technology, sample collection, processing, transfer facilities, and other patient-facing service providers, any of which could experience disruption, failure, or interruption.
We depend on third parties for information technology, telecommunication systems, the collection, processing, transport, and storage of sample, and other patient-facing services. Any disruption in these services or operations could materially adversely harm our business and operations.
We depend on information technology and telecommunications systems, including those provided by third parties and their vendors, for significant elements of our operations, such as our laboratory information management systems, including test validation, specimen tracking, and quality control; personal information collection, storage, maintenance, and transmission; our report production systems; and our billing and reimbursement, research and development, scientific, and medical data analysis; and general administrative activities. In connection with becoming a public company, we expect to expand and strengthen a number of enterprise software systems that affect a broad range of business processes and functions, including, for example, systems handling human resources, financial controls and reporting, customer relationship management, regulatory compliance, security controls, and other infrastructure operations. These expansions may prove more difficult than we expect and could cause disruptions in our operations or additional expense. Information technology and telecommunications systems are vulnerable to damage from a variety of sources, including telecommunications or network failures, malicious human acts, and natural disasters. Moreover, despite network security and back-up measures, some of our servers are potentially vulnerable to physical or electronic break-ins, computer viruses and similar disruptive events, and other cybersecurity incidents. Any disruption or loss of information technology or telecommunications systems on which critical aspects of our operations depend could have an adverse effect on our business, reputation, results of operation, financial condition, and growth prospects.
Our business also depends on our ability to reliably sequence blood samples that we collect, which are transported to our Menlo Park or Durham facility for analysis. Within the United Kingdom, our samples are initially collected, processed, frozen, and stored at several off-site facilities. Any disruption to the operations of these facilities could compromise the integrity of our samples and impede our ability to access and accurately sequence the data. For example, Event Marketing Solutions Ltd (“EMS”) is responsible for collection of our NHS-Galleri Trial samples and ships those samples to UK Biocentre Ltd (“UKBC”) for, among other things, receipt, storage, and management. If any natural or man-made disaster, accident, or break-in were to affect the UKBC facility or EMS’ collection or shipping operations, our NHS-Galleri samples could be lost, destroyed, compromised, or otherwise adversely affected. In addition, we maintain samples from our clinical studies for several years. It is possible that the long-term stability of these samples may not be maintained with the passage of time, which could negatively impact our ability to use such samples to validate our products. Further, interruptions in collection, processing, freezing, or transportation of samples performed by patient-facing service providers and other third parties, whether due to labor disruptions, bad weather, natural disaster, terrorist acts, threats, or for other reasons could adversely affect the samples and our ability to process the samples in a timely manner, which could negatively affect our ongoing research studies and harm our business. This is particularly true for transport of our samples, which generally must be delivered to our facilities for processing within seven days of blood draw.
We also depend on third-party telemedicine providers for certain referrals and follow up services with patients. Third-party phlebotomists also provide patient-facing services in collecting samples and shipping samples to our facilities for processing. If these telemedicine or phlebotomist vendors fail to perform services, or if services are performed poorly or perceived to be performed poorly, we may suffer reputational harm, need to replace a provider, limit our ability to reach patients, result in loss of samples, failure to receive samples in a timely manner, insufficient quality of samples, or other harms.
Finally, the facilities of any of our third-party collaborators, consultants, contractors, vendors, suppliers, and service providers could be subject to earthquakes, power shortages, telecommunications failures, water shortages, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, fires, extreme weather conditions, medical epidemics, pandemics, and
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other natural or man-made disasters or business interruptions. In addition, they may be affected by government shutdowns, changes to applicable laws, regulations, and policies, or funding shortages. The occurrence of any of these business disruptions could seriously harm their ability to complete their contracted services to us, which may adversely impact our operations and financial condition.
Failure of, or defects in, our machine learning algorithms, artificial intelligence, and cloud-based computing infrastructure, including interruptions of service through our key provider, Amazon Web Services, or increased regulation in the machine learning or artificial intelligence space, could impair our ability to process our data, develop products, or provide test results, and harm our business and results of operations.
We depend on technology systems for significant elements of our business operations. These technology systems support a variety of functions, including manufacturing operations, laboratory operations, data analysis, quality control, partner service and support, billing, research and development activities, and scientific and general administrative activities. The design, development, maintenance, and operation of our technology over time is expensive and complex, and may involve unforeseen difficulties including performance problems, undetected defects, or errors. Overcoming technical obstacles and correcting defects or errors could prove to be impossible or impracticable, and the costs incurred may be substantial and adversely affect our results of operations. Additionally, regulation in the machine learning and artificial intelligence space is constantly evolving and limitations placed on the use of data, including personal information, health data, or genetic/ genomic data in such systems may make it difficult for us to continue using our machine learning algorithms. If our technology does not function reliably, fails to meet expectations in terms of performance, or cannot be fully utilized due to increasing regulation, including regulation by the FDA or comparable regulatory authorities of artificial intelligence or medical device software, we may be unable to provide, or our customers may stop using, our products. We expect that increased investment will be required in the future to continuously improve our use of AI technologies. As with many technological innovations, there are significant risks involved in developing, maintaining and deploying these technologies and there can be no assurance that the usage of or our investments in such technologies will always enhance our products or services or be beneficial to our business, including our efficiency or profitability.
In Europe, on August 1, 2024, the EU Artificial Intelligence Act (the “EU AI Act”) entered into force, and establishes a comprehensive, risk-based governance framework for AI in the EU market. The majority of the substantive requirements will apply from August 2, 2026. The EU AI Act applies to companies that develop, use and/or provide AI in the EU and, depending on the use case, includes requirements around transparency, conformity assessments and monitoring, risk assessments, human oversight, security, accuracy, general purpose AI and foundation models, and fines for breaches up to 7% of an undertaking’s worldwide annual turnover. In addition, the revised EU Product Liability Directive came into force in December 2024, to be implemented into EU member state national law by December 2026. This Directive extends the EU’s existing strict product liability regime to AI technologies and AI-enabled products, and facilitates civil claims in respect of harm caused by AI. Once fully applicable, the EU AI Act and the EU Product Liability Directive will have a material impact on the way AI is regulated in the EU. The EU AI Act and its future interpretation and application may affect our use of AI technologies and our ability to provide, improve or commercialize our services, require additional compliance measures and changes to our operations and processes, result in increased compliance costs and potential increases in civil claims against us, and could adversely affect our business, operations and financial condition. It is also possible that further laws and regulations will be adopted in the United States and in other non-U.S. jurisdictions, or that existing laws and regulations, including competition and antitrust laws, may be interpreted in ways that would limit our ability to use AI technologies for our business, or require us to change the way we use AI technologies. For example, Colorado passed the Colorado Artificial Intelligence Act and Utah passed the Utah Artificial Intelligence Policy Act, both of which will have implications on the ways that businesses can use AI technologies.
We currently host all of our data on, and conduct a significant portion of our data analysis through, Amazon Web Services (“AWS”) cloud-based hosting facilities. In addition, certain functions of our laboratory operations and business functions use or leverage AWS. Any technical problems or outages that may arise in connection with AWS, including its data center hosting facilities, could result in operational disruption, loss of data or delayed or ineffective data processing. A variety of factors, including infrastructure changes, human or software errors, viruses, malware, cybersecurity incidents or attacks, fraud, spikes in customer usage, or denial of service issues could cause interruptions in our service. Such service interruptions may reduce or inhibit our ability to provide our
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products, process tests, operate our laboratory, delay our clinical studies, and damage our relationships with our customers. We could also be exposed to potential lawsuits, liability claims, reputational impact, or regulatory actions, for example if AWS experienced a data privacy or cybersecurity incident. If we were required to transfer to another service provider, including the transfer of data to an alternative hosting provider, the transfer and acclimation to the new provider could result in significant business delays and require additional resources.
If we are unable to scale our operations successfully to support demand for our products, our business could suffer.
As and to the extent test volumes grow, we may need to ramp up laboratory capacity, including increasing the processing of Galleri in our Durham, North Carolina facility by increased operations. While we have heavily invested in our scalability, including by expanding our Durham facility laboratory capacity, further buildout of our Durham facility may be needed, as well as further new infrastructure, data processing capabilities, customer service, billing and systems processes, and expanding our internal quality assurance program and information technology to support testing on a larger scale. We will also need additional equipment, and certified and licensed laboratory personnel to process higher volumes of tests. Our ability to hire personnel to scale would be more challenging if 24/7 operations are implemented and we will require night shift work. We may face difficulties increasing the scale of our operations, including implementing changes in infrastructure or programs or acquiring additional equipment or personnel, as well as any additional regulatory, licensing, permitting, or certificate obligations that need to be met at the local, state, or federal level. As we refine our products, develop additional products, and enhance existing products, we may need to bring new equipment on-line, comply with additional applicable laws and regulations, implement new systems, technology, controls and procedures, and hire personnel with different qualifications, licenses, or certifications.
The value of Galleri, our precision oncology portfolio, and any future products will depend, in part, on our ability to perform tests and return results to providers on a timely basis and at an appropriate quality standard, and on our reputation for such timeliness and quality. Failure to implement necessary procedures, to transition to new equipment or processes, or to hire the appropriate, qualified personnel could result in higher costs of processing, longer turnaround times or an inability to meet market demand. There can be no assurance that we will be able to perform tests on a timely basis at a level consistent with demand, that we will be able to maintain the quality of our test results as we scale our commercial operations, or that we will be successful in responding to the growing complexity of our laboratory operations, including the related data analysis requirements.
We may also experience difficulties scaling in international markets in which we are required under law or contract, or decide to, construct and operate a laboratory in that market. For example, we may be required or decide to build and operate a laboratory in the United Kingdom if and when we have a commercial presence in that country. This may be challenging due to significant startup costs, difficulty recruiting, and lack of familiarity with the local jurisdiction, among other reasons. If we are unable to build and operate laboratories internationally, our ability to expand internationally may be limited, and have a negative impact on our business and results of operations.
In addition, our growth may place a significant strain on our management, operating and financial systems, research and development, and our sales, marketing, and administrative resources. As a result of our growth, our operating costs may escalate even faster than planned, and some of our internal systems may need to be enhanced or replaced. If we cannot effectively manage our expanding operations and our costs, we may not be able to grow successfully or we may grow at a slower pace, and our business could be adversely affected.
Our business and results of operations will suffer if we fail to perform effectively.
There are market participants in the cancer detection space both in the United States and abroad, including Adela, Inc., DELFI Diagnostics, Inc., Exact Sciences Corporation, Exai Bio, Inc., Freenome Inc., Guardant Health, Inc., Harbinger Health and Natera, Inc. within the United States and AnchorDx, Anpac Bio-Medical Science Co., Ltd., Burning Rock Biotech Limited, Datar Cancer Genetics, Elypta AB, Gene Solutions JSC, Insighta, Singlera Genomics, Inc. and Seekin, Inc. outside of the United States, among others, that have stated that they are attempting to develop tests designed to detect certain types of cancer, including some that will use cell free DNA (“cfDNA”) analyses. The precision oncology market includes companies such as Roche/Foundation Medicine, Inc., Natera, Inc., Guardant, Inc., Tempus AI, Inc., Clearnote Health, NeoGenomics Laboratories, Personalis, Inc.,
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Twist Bioscience Corp. and Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp., among others. These companies have or may have greater financial, technical, and other resources, such as larger research and development staff, well-established marketing and sales forces, existing integrated systems connected to health practices’ electronic health or medical records to facilitate product ordering and results delivery, or may operate in jurisdictions where lower standards of evidence are required to bring products to market. These companies may succeed in developing, acquiring, or licensing, on an exclusive basis or otherwise, tests or services that are more effective, have higher performance, or are less costly than our products. In addition, established medical technology, biotechnology, or pharmaceutical companies may invest to accelerate discovery and development of tests that could make our products less successful than we anticipate. For example, large and long-tenured healthcare, life sciences, or technology companies may initiate research and development of MCED and bring significant resources and disruption to the cancer detection space.
Our ability to perform successfully will depend largely on our ability to:
•successfully expand commercialization efforts for our products;
•demonstrate compelling advantages in the performance and convenience of our products, including on a cost efficient basis;
•achieve market acceptance of our products by healthcare providers and patients, including through our reputation;
•achieve adequate coverage and reimbursement by third-party payors for our products;
•differentiate our product from future tests and products of and third parties;
•attract qualified scientific, data science, clinical development, product development, and commercial personnel;
•obtain, maintain, defend, and enforce patent and other proprietary protection as necessary for our products;
•obtain and maintain any necessary or desirable marketing authorizations or certifications from regulators in the United States and other jurisdictions, and notified bodies;
•integrate product ordering and results delivery into practices’ electronic health or medical records systems;
•successfully collaborate with institutions in the discovery, development, and commercialization of our products; and
•successfully expand our operations and implement a successful sales and marketing strategy to support commercialization.
We may not be able to perform effectively if we are unable to accomplish one or more of these or similar objectives.
If we cannot maintain our current collaborations or partnerships and enter into new collaborations or partnerships in a timely manner and on acceptable terms, our efforts to develop and commercialize our products could be delayed or adversely affected.
We rely, and expect to continue to rely, on collaborative partners to help us develop our products and enhance our research and development efforts. For example, we have collaborated with pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, and academic centers. Additionally, our RUO offering has formed the basis of biopharmaceutical partnerships with several leading oncology companies. These partnerships leverage our RUO offering to test applications of biomarkers with the goal of optimizing the use of therapeutic interventions. Partnerships may also include development of customized applications to support clinical studies and companion
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diagnostic development and commercialization. Our reliance on certain of these third parties reduces our control over our product development activities.
If any of our collaborators or partners were to breach or terminate their agreements with us or otherwise fail to conduct the contracted activities successfully and in a timely manner, the research and development activities of certain of our products could be delayed or terminated. Further, our collaborators or partners may fail to properly protect our intellectual property rights, may infringe the intellectual property rights of third parties, may misappropriate our trade secrets, or may use our proprietary information or others’ in such a way as to expose us to litigation and potential liability. Disagreements or disputes with our collaborators or partners, including disagreements over proprietary rights, funding, or contract interpretation, might cause delays or termination of the research, development or commercialization of our products, might lead to additional responsibilities for us with respect to these products or activities or might result in litigation or arbitration, any of which would divert management attention and resources and be time-consuming and expensive. We may not be able to renew our current agreements with collaborators or partners or negotiate additional collaboration or partnership agreements on acceptable terms, if at all, and these collaborations and partnerships may not be successful. Any transition from a current collaborator to a new collaborator could be costly and result in significant product development delays.
From time to time, we expect to engage in discussions with potential development and/or commercial collaborators that may or may not lead to collaborations. However, we cannot guarantee that any discussions will result in development or commercial collaborations. Further, once news of discussions regarding possible collaborations are known in the general public, regardless of whether the news is accurate, failure to announce a collaboration agreement, or the entity’s announcement of a collaboration with an entity other than us, could result in adverse speculation about us, our products, or our technology, resulting in harm to our reputation and our business. In addition, establishing collaborations is difficult, time-consuming and may require our significant financial investment. Potential collaborators may elect not to work with us based on their assessment of our financial, regulatory, or intellectual property position. Even if we establish new collaborations, they may not result in the successful development or commercialization of our products or technology.
We will need to grow the size and capabilities of our organization to support scale over time, and we may experience difficulties in managing this growth. If we are unable to maintain and expand sales and marketing capabilities in particular, we may not be successful in increasing sales of Galleri or commercializing new products over the long term.
As of December 31, 2024, we had approximately 1,000 employees, substantially all of whom were full- time. Our headcount was reduced in 2024 following the implementation of the Restructuring Plan. As our development plans and strategies develop, and as we continue our operation as a public company, we may require a significant number of additional managerial, operational, financial, and other personnel. Moreover, despite our progress made in driving commercial implementation to date, we may not be able to market, sell, or distribute Galleri, or any future products that we may develop and commercialize, effectively enough to support our planned growth. Although we have focused our business on Galleri-related activities and our work with biopharmaceutical companies as part of the Restructuring Plan resulting in a lower number of employees as of December 31, 2024, we may nevertheless need to continue to grow our operations to achieve our goals.
Factors that may inhibit our efforts to commercialize any of our products include:
•our inability to recruit and retain adequate numbers of effective sales, marketing, reimbursement, customer service, medical affairs, and other support personnel;
•the inability of sales personnel to generate an adequate number of customers, including healthcare systems and healthcare providers, to use our products;
•the inability to price our products at a sufficient price point to ensure an adequate and attractive level of gross margin and profitability;
•our inability to effectively market to, collaborate with, and secure coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors;
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•our failure to comply with applicable regulatory requirements governing the sale, marketing, reimbursement, and commercialization of our products; and
•unforeseen costs and expenses associated with maintaining a commercialization organization.
Future growth will impose significant added responsibilities on members of management besides those related to our efforts to commercialize, which will include: managing our internal development efforts effectively, including creating compliant programs and processes, such as a compliant laboratory and manufacturing quality system, and managing the regulatory requirements for our products, while complying with our contractual obligations to contractors and other third parties, including patient-facing service providers; expanding our operational, financial and management controls, reporting systems, and procedures; and managing the increasing complexity associated with a larger organization and expanded operations.
Our future financial performance and our ability to commercialize our products will depend, in part, on our ability to effectively manage any future growth. Our management may also have to divert a disproportionate amount of its attention away from day-to-day activities in order to manage these growth activities. Our ability to successfully manage our expected growth is uncertain given the fact that we have been in operation as a company only since 2016, and have grown significantly in recent years.
If we are not able to effectively expand our organization by hiring new employees, we may not be able to successfully implement the tasks necessary to commercialize our products, which would have a negative impact on our business and results of operations.
We are highly dependent on our key personnel. If we are not successful in attracting, motivating, and retaining highly qualified personnel, we may not be able to successfully implement our business strategy.
Our ability to perform in the biotechnology industry depends upon our ability to attract, motivate, and retain highly qualified personnel. We are highly dependent on our executive management team and our scientific, medical, technological, and engineering personnel. The loss of the services provided by any of our executive officers, other key employees, and other scientific and medical advisors, and our inability to find suitable replacements in a timely manner, could result in delays in commercialization of our products and harm our business. The risk of losing our executive officers, key employees and scientific and medical advisors may increase in connection with the Restructuring Plan.
We are headquartered in Menlo Park, California, a region in which many other healthcare companies, technology companies, and academic and research institutions are headquartered. In addition, we operate a laboratory facility in Durham, North Carolina, where there is also demand for skilled personnel, especially engineering and laboratory personnel. Competition for personnel is intense and the turnover rate can be high, which may limit our ability to hire and retain highly qualified personnel on acceptable terms or at all. We expect that we may need to recruit talent from outside of these regions, and doing so may be costly and difficult.
To induce valuable employees to join and remain at our company, we have generally granted incentive awards that vest over time-based continued service, in addition to salary and periodic cash incentives. Prior to the Spin-Off, these awards generally consisted of Cash-Based Equity Awards (defined below) and, since the Spin-Off, these awards have consisted of grants of restricted stock units covering GRAIL common stock (“RSUs”), in each case, vesting over set time periods based on continued service. In connection with the Spin-Off, the outstanding Cash-Based Equity Awards converted into RSUs (the “RSU Conversion”) in accordance with the Employee Matters Agreement, dated June 24, 2024, by and between us and Illumina (the “Employee Matters Agreement”). As a result of the applicable RSU conversion mechanic under the Employee Matters Agreement, the fair market value of each employee’s RSU award after the RSU Conversion was substantially lower than the face value of the Cash-Based Equity Awards prior to the RSU Conversion, particularly for award tranches vesting after 2024. In October 2024, we granted 2.4 million RSUs to our employees, including special retention grants made to certain members of our executive team. These RSU grants represented a smaller aggregate number of RSUs than we would ideally have issued for retention purposes in 2024, primarily due to available share constraints under our shareholder-approved incentive equity plan. As a result of the RSU Conversion mechanics and limitations our 2024 RSU grants, the perceived value to employees of these awards may be insufficient to retain certain key executives and other valuable employees, who may receive more lucrative offers from other companies. Although
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we have employment agreements with certain key employees, these employment agreements provide for at-will employment, which means that any of our employees could leave our employment at any time, with or without notice. If we are unable to attract and incentivize highly qualified personnel on acceptable terms in a timely manner, or at all, our business and results of operations may suffer.
Our business is subject to economic, political, regulatory, and other risks associated with international operations.
Our business is subject to risks associated with conducting business internationally. For example, some of our suppliers and parties with whom we have collaborative relationships are located outside the United States, including in the United Kingdom and Israel. We expect to continue to increase our international presence over time, which could increase these risks or introduce new risks. Accordingly, our future results could be harmed by a variety of factors, including:
•economic weakness, including inflation, or political instability, in particular non-U.S. economies and markets;
•challenges enforcing our contractual and intellectual property rights, especially in those foreign jurisdictions that do not respect and protect intellectual property rights to the same extent as the United States;
•trade protection measures, import or export controls and licensing requirements (including possible restrictions on licensing intellectual property to certain non-U.S. persons) or other restrictive actions by U.S. or non-U.S. governments;
•changes in non-U.S. laws, regulations and customs, tariffs, and trade barriers;
•changes in non-U.S. laws, regulations, and policies related to data privacy, data protection, and cybersecurity in the transfer or transmittal of data across boundaries and geographies;
•exchange rate risk we may face from denominating a portion of our transactions in currencies other than the U.S. dollar;
•changes in a specific country’s or region’s political or economic environment;
•negative consequences from changes in tax laws;
•negative consequences from changes in U.S. national security laws, including those governing non-U.S. investors’ ownership of U.S. biotech and other technology companies and U.S. companies’ ability to enter into joint ventures with non-U.S. entities;
•compliance with tax, employment, immigration, and labor laws for employees living or traveling abroad;
•workforce uncertainty in countries where labor unrest is more common than in the United States;
•difficulties associated with staffing and managing international operations, including differing labor relations;
•potential liability under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (“FCPA”) or comparable foreign laws; and
•business interruptions resulting from geopolitical actions, including war and terrorism, such as recent conflicts in the Middle East, pandemics, or natural disasters more common in certain regions, including earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and fires.
In addition, in recent years, U.S. administrations have publicly supported potential trade proposals that may affect U.S. trade relations with other countries. It is unclear at this point how, if at all, such actions or other potential actions, including under the new U.S. Presidential administration, may impact our business or
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operations, and the uncertainty surrounding these matters might create difficulties in our efforts to partner with certain healthcare providers, suppliers, and insurance carriers. As of the date of this Annual Report, discussions remain ongoing in respect of certain trade restrictions and tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico, as well as retaliatory tariffs enacted in response to such actions. Should significant tariffs be implemented and sustained for an extended period of time, they could have a material adverse effect on the broader economy, which may be exacerbated by additional tariffs in the United States or retaliatory tariffs imposed by other governments. Moreover, future operational expansion into other geographies will subject us to additional political and regulatory regimes that will require us to invest further in compliance efforts and may result in additional risks, including, among others, exposure to various and potentially conflicting regulations, international sanctions and compliance rules, country-specific requirements for testing, approval, and processing of patient information and biological samples, as well as the risks associated with political and macroeconomic climates in any such geographies. For example, the potential commercialization of Galleri with the NHS, subject to the results of the NHS-Galleri Trial, may be delayed or otherwise impacted if there is a change in the government in the United Kingdom. These and other risks associated with our planned international operations may materially and adversely affect our business, costs and growth prospects.
We also face risks from our international operations for Galleri, our precision oncology portfolio and other products we may develop. Our clinical trials to date have been conducted in the United States and the United Kingdom, and use of our tests in populations outside of these regions could result in differences in performance. Any performance differences experienced in screening populations outside of the United States or United Kingdom could result in customer dissatisfaction, reputational harm, real world data or adverse events that would be reportable to the FDA or other regulators, regulatory actions by regulators in international jurisdictions and other risks, all of which could have a material and adverse impact on our business, regulatory pathway, results of operations and growth prospects.
Our ability to successfully and efficiently conduct any required in-country studies in other countries or regions in which we seek to expand may also be impacted, or may be impossible, due to the regulatory requirements of such countries. Some countries may require that we carry out testing of our products or future products through government partnerships, which may be difficult to navigate or which may limit our ability to deliver the results we intend. Moreover, the demographics in other countries or regions may differ vastly, such that study results may not appear as successful, due to, for example, a lower incidence of cancer in the local population. Such outcomes may adversely impact demand for our products in other countries. Finally, our ability to expand internationally may be limited by the availability of international laboratory space or requirements that will permit us to store, collect, and analyze biological samples required for current or future products, including space that could be made available through potential partners in such countries or regions. These and other unknown risks which make it difficult for us to assess the potential success of our international expansion and the costs associated therewith. For additional information, see “—Risks Relating to Regulation and Legal Compliance.”.
Our information technology systems, or those used by our third-party collaborators or other contractors or consultants, may fail or suffer cybersecurity incidents or cyberattacks.
We collect and maintain information in digital form that is necessary to conduct our business, and we are increasingly dependent on information technology systems and infrastructure to operate our business. In the ordinary course of our business, we collect, store, and transmit large amounts of confidential information, including intellectual property, proprietary business information, personal, financial, and health information of patients and personal and financial information of our employees and contractors. It is critical that we do so in a secure manner to maintain the confidentiality and integrity of such confidential information.
Despite the implementation of security and back-up measures, our information technology systems as well as those of our third-party collaborators, consultants, contractors, suppliers, and service providers, may be vulnerable to attack, damage, or interruption from physical or electronic break-ins, computer viruses, malware, malicious code, ransomware, denial or degradation of service, hacking, phishing attacks, and other cyber-attacks, natural disasters, terrorism, war, telecommunication and electrical failures, instructions and attacks from sophisticated nation-state and nation-state-supported actors (including advanced persistent threat intrusions), or other disruptive incidents that could result in unauthorized access to, use or disclosure of, corruption of, or loss of sensitive, and/ or proprietary data, including personal information, protected health information, and other sensitive information, and could subject us to significant liabilities and regulatory and enforcement actions, and
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reputational damage. The risk of a cybersecurity incident or disruption, particularly through cyberattacks or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments, and cyber terrorists, has generally increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased and evolved. If we or our third-party vendors were to experience a significant cybersecurity incident affecting our or their information technology systems or data, the costs associated with the investigation, remediation, and potential notification of the incident to counterparties and data subjects could be material, in addition to any money required to resolve a ransomware attack. For example, laws in the European Economic Area (“EEA”), the United Kingdom, and all 50 U.S. states may require businesses to notify regulators within specific timeframes that an incident affecting personal information has occurred and/or to provide notice to individuals whose personal information has been impacted as a result of such incident. As part of our growth strategy, we have expanded into multiple jurisdictions outside of the United States, including the United Kingdom and Israel, and intend to continue expansions in 2025 and beyond. This growth will subject us to additional regulatory regimes and increase the amount of cybersecurity requirements for compliance in multiple geographies. Complying with such numerous and complex regulations in the event of a cybersecurity breach would be expensive and difficult, and failure to comply could subject us to regulatory scrutiny and additional liability. In addition, our remediation efforts may not be successful. Data protection laws and regulations often require appropriate, reasonable or adequate technical and organizational security measures, and the interpretation and application of those laws and regulations are often uncertain and evolving. There can be no assurance that our security measures will be deemed adequate, appropriate or reasonable by a regulator or court. Moreover, even security measures that are deemed appropriate, reasonable, or otherwise in accordance with applicable legal requirements may not be able to protect the information we maintain.
In connection with the Restructuring Plan, we have made reductions to the number of employees and amount of resources dedicated to these matters, and to our information technology efforts more broadly, and there may be further reductions to resources in the future. In addition to the number of employees allocated to these matters, if we fail to identify and retain qualified key personnel in these areas or fail to appropriately allocate responsibilities across remaining personnel, the quality of our cybersecurity efforts may be compromised. Even if we do allocate and effectively manage the resources necessary to build and sustain the proper technology and cybersecurity infrastructure, we could nevertheless suffer significant business disruption, including transaction errors, supply chain or manufacturing interruptions, processing inefficiencies, data loss, or the loss of or damage to intellectual property or other confidential or proprietary information.
As a part of our cybersecurity program, we conduct a number of internal evaluations and independent third-party audits and reviews. For example, as part of our overall public company preparedness efforts in connection with the Spin-Off in 2024, we underwent third-party reviews of our cybersecurity program against the NIST CSF 2.0 and NIST Privacy Framework, along with our ordinary course annual reviews under ISO 27001, SOC2 Type 2, PCI DSS, and other standards, in order to identify capabilities, gaps, and recommendations for improvement, and to compare our cybersecurity program to applicable requirements. These assessments generate numerous findings and opportunities that we intend to utilize in order to improve and mature our cybersecurity practices and promote continuous improvement in our cybersecurity and privacy programs. However, these improvements and maturation efforts may take a number of months or years to fully realize. Should these improvement and maturation efforts fail to improve or maintain our level of effectiveness in a timely manner or at all, or correct any observed gaps, we may be at risk of regulatory findings, cybersecurity attacks or data breaches, which would amplify the risks otherwise described.
We, along with companies with whom we engage in data sharing, including our service providers, are from time to time subject to cyberattacks and other cybersecurity incidents. While we do not believe that we have experienced any significant system failure, or cybersecurity incident to date, we may nonetheless be a target of such an attack, and if such an event were to occur and cause interruptions in our operations, or any of our third-party collaborators’ operations, it could result in a material disruption of our development programs, reputation, and business operations whether due to a loss, corruption, or unauthorized disclosure of our trade secrets, personal information, financial information, health information, or other proprietary or sensitive information, or other similar disruptions. For example, the loss of clinical study data from completed or ongoing clinical studies could result in delays in any regulatory clearance, approval, or certification efforts and significantly increase our costs to recover or reproduce the data, and subsequently commercialize our products. If we or our third-party collaborators, consultants, contractors, suppliers, or service providers were to suffer a cybersecurity incident or attack, for example, that resulted in the unauthorized access to or use or disclosure of personal or health
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information, we may have to notify physicians, patients, partners, collaborators, government authorities, and the media, and may be subject to investigations, civil penalties, administrative and enforcement actions, and litigation, any of which could harm our business and reputation. Likewise, we rely on our third-party research institution collaborators and other third parties to conduct clinical studies, and similar events relating to their computer systems could also have a material adverse effect on our business. It could also expose us to risks, including an inability to provide our services and fulfill contractual demands, and could cause management distraction and the obligation to devote significant financial and other resources to mitigate such problems, which would increase our future information security costs, including through organizational changes, deploying additional personnel, reinforcing administrative, physical, and technical safeguards, further training of employees, changing third-party vendor control practices, and engaging third-party subject matter experts and consultants and reduce the demand for our technology and services. To the extent that any disruption or cybersecurity incident were to result in a loss of, or damage to, our data or systems, or inappropriate or unauthorized access to or disclosure or use of confidential, proprietary, or other sensitive, personal, or health information, we could incur liability, we could be exposed to the risk of litigation, our market position could be harmed, we could suffer reputational harm, and the development and commercialization of our products could be delayed. Furthermore, federal, state, and international laws and regulations can expose us to enforcement actions and investigations by regulatory authorities, and potentially result in regulatory penalties, fines, and significant legal liability, if our information technology security efforts fail or if there are material findings regarding data security or data integrity deficiencies by us or our critical partners, vendors, or suppliers. While we may be entitled to damages if our third-party partners, vendors, or suppliers fail to satisfy their security-related obligations, any award may be insufficient to cover our damages, or we may be unable to recover such award.
Attacks on information technology systems are increasing in their frequency, levels of persistence, sophistication, and intensity, and are being conducted by sophisticated and organized groups and individuals with a wide range of motives and expertise. Furthermore, because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access to, or to sabotage, systems change frequently and often are not recognized until launched against a target, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or implement adequate preventative measures. In particular, developments in artificial intelligence tools and computing power, are likely to increase the frequency and effectiveness of attacks. We may also experience cybersecurity incidents that may remain undetected for an extended period. Even if identified, we may be unable to adequately investigate or remediate cybersecurity incidents due to attackers increasingly using tools and techniques that are designed to circumvent controls, to avoid detection, and to remove or obfuscate forensic evidence.
While we maintain cybersecurity insurance, our insurance policies may not be adequate to compensate us for the potential losses arising from such disruptions, failure, or cybersecurity incident. In addition, such insurance may not be available to us in the future on economically reasonable terms, or at all. Further, our insurance may not cover all claims made against us and defending a suit, regardless of its merit, could be costly, divert management attention, and harm our reputation.
If we are sued for product or professional liability, we could face substantial liabilities that exceed our resources and insurance coverage.
Actual or perceived errors resulting from laboratory or reporting errors, false positive or false negative test results, or the manufacture, design, marketing, or labeling of our products, could subject us to product liability or professional liability claims. A product liability or professional liability claim against us could result in substantial damages and be costly and time-consuming to defend. These risks may be more pronounced for certain applications in our precision oncology portfolio, such as companion diagnostic development, as our products would be directly involved with the choice to use certain treatments in a particular case. Although we maintain liability insurance, including for errors and omissions, our insurance may not fully protect us from the financial impact of defending against these types of claims or any judgments, fines, or settlement costs arising out of any such claims. Any liability claim brought against us, with or without merit, could increase our insurance rates or prevent us from securing insurance coverage in the future. Additionally, any liability lawsuit could damage our reputation or force us to suspend sales of our products. The occurrence of any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects.
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Our quarterly results of operations may fluctuate significantly or may fall below the expectations of investors or securities analysts, each of which may cause our stock price to fluctuate or decline.
We expect our results of operations to be subject to quarterly fluctuations. Our net loss and other operating results will be affected by numerous factors, including:
•our ability to successfully develop, market, and sell our products, including Galleri, our precision oncology portfolio and any of our future products if and when launched;
•changes in strategic focus or priorities;
•the prices at which we are able to sell our products;
•the impact of market developments or our response thereto;
•disruptions in our business due to manufacturing, supply, cybersecurity breaches, outages, or other issues;
•the cost of performing next-generation sequencing;
•the extent to which our products are deemed eligible or ineligible for coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors;
•changes in coverage and reimbursement or in reimbursement-related laws directly affecting our business;
•our ability to obtain regulatory approval for our products, and the degree of impact of those approvals on perceptions of our products and market demand;
•regulatory developments affecting our products or any future competing products;
•timing of investments in our laboratories and other infrastructure;
•timing of expenditures in connection with our clinical studies;
•the success of our international expansion efforts; and
•non-routine cash and non-cash expenses and write-offs, whether associated with acquisitions, restructuring activities, litigation, investigations, or otherwise.
If our quarterly results of operations fall below the expectations of investors or securities analysts, the price of our common stock could decline substantially. Furthermore, any quarterly fluctuations in our results of operations, which could be caused by any number of factors including seasonality of prescribing our products, may, in turn, cause the price of our stock to fluctuate substantially. We may experience this seasonality in particular in the third quarter due to primary care physician and patient summer vacation periods. We believe that quarterly comparisons of our financial results are not necessarily meaningful and should not be relied upon as an indication of our future performance.
Acquisitions or other strategic transactions may increase our capital requirements, dilute our stockholders, cause us to incur debt or assume contingent liabilities, and subject us to other risks.
We have in the past engaged in and may in the future engage in acquisitions and strategic partnerships, including licensing or acquiring complementary intellectual property rights, technologies, or businesses. Any acquisition or strategic partnership may entail numerous risks, including:
•increased operating expenses and cash requirements;
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•the assumption of indebtedness or contingent liabilities;
•the issuance of our equity securities that would result in dilution to our stockholders;
•assimilation of operations, intellectual property, and products of an acquired company;
•difficulties associated with integrating new personnel;
•retention of key employees, the loss of key personnel, and uncertainties in our ability to maintain key business relationships;
•the diversion of our management’s attention from our existing product programs and initiatives in pursuing such an acquisition or strategic partnership;
•risks and uncertainties associated with the other party to such a transaction, including the prospects of that party and their existing or future products and regulatory approvals or certifications, and the validity and enforceability of their intellectual property;
•inability to consummate acquisitions on which we spend a significant amount of time and resources;
•possible write-offs or impairment charges relating to acquired businesses; and
•our inability to generate revenue from acquired intellectual property, technology, or tests sufficient to meet our objectives or offset the associated transaction costs.
In addition, as our strategy evolves, we may opt to discontinue, deprioritize, or dispose of assets, technologies, or acquired businesses.
We have and may continue to become subject to securities class action lawsuits, investigations initiated by regulators and law firms, and derivative or other similar litigation, any or all of which, individually or in the aggregate, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
We have and may continue to become subject to securities class action lawsuits, investigations initiated by regulators and law firms, and derivative or other similar litigation that can be expensive, divert management attention and human and financial capital to less productive uses and result in potential reputational damage. These lawsuits, claims and investigations may be related to regulatory or other matters, privacy, intellectual property, and/or employment matters, or any other aspect of our business.
For example, since the Acquisition of our business by Illumina in 2021, the Acquisition has been subject to various legal challenges, including by the FTC and the European Commission. As a result, we have been a party, together with Illumina and as a separate party, to a number of regulatory and administrative proceedings regarding the Acquisition, including ongoing proceedings and proceedings in which we have filed separate appeals. In addition, we have intervened in certain procedures in support of Illumina. Following completion of the Spin-Off we and Illumina sought dismissal of the FTC’s complaint on July 30, 2024, and on August 15, 2024, the FTC dismissed without prejudice the complaint on the basis that the Spin-Off effectively abandoned the transaction giving rise to the complaint. On September 3, 2024, the European Court of Justice annulled the European Commission’s decision to review Illumina’s acquisition of Grail on the basis the European Commission did not have the jurisdiction to do so. With the completion of the Spin-Off, the dismissal by the FTC and the annulment of the European Court of Justice, the Company believes these matters are substantially concluded. However, we may continue to be involved in litigation proceedings related to the FTC’s or the European Commission’s actions related to the Acquisition. We may also be a party or otherwise involved in new litigation proceedings regarding the Acquisition. For example, in July 2023, Illumina was informed that the staff of the SEC was conducting an investigation relating to Illumina and was requesting documents and communications primarily related to Illumina’s acquisition of GRAIL and certain statements and disclosures concerning GRAIL, our products and the Acquisition, and related to the conduct and compensation of certain members of Illumina and GRAIL management, among other things. GRAIL is cooperating with the SEC in this investigation.
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In addition, our acquisition by Illumina and subsequent litigation resulted in the filing of three securities class actions in the United States District Court for the Southern District of California: Kangas v. Illumina, Inc. et al., Roy v. Illumina, Inc. et al., and Louisiana Sheriffs’ Pension & Relief Fund v. Illumina, Inc. et al. (collectively, the “Actions”). The complaints generally allege, among other things, that defendants made materially false and misleading statements and omitted material facts relating to Illumina’s acquisition of GRAIL. The complaints seek unspecified damages, interest, fees, and costs. On January 9, 2024, four movants filed motions to consolidate the Actions and to appoint a lead plaintiff (“Lead Plaintiff Motions”). On April 11, 2024, the Court issued an order consolidating the Actions into a single action (captioned in re Illumina, Inc. Securities Litigation No. 23-cv-2082-LL-MMP), and appointed Universal-Investment-Gesellschaft mbH, UI BVK Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft mbH, and ACATIS Investment Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft mbH as lead plaintiffs. (the "Lead Plaintiffs). On June 21, 2024, the Lead Plaintiffs filed their consolidated amended complaint. The amended complaint alleges that GRAIL, in addition to Illumina, and certain of their respective current and former directors and others violated sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Exchange Act and SEC Rule 10b-5 in connection with Illumina's acquisition of GRAIL. On September 13, 2024 the plaintiffs further amended the complaint. On November 12, 2024, the Company and other defendants filed a motion to dismiss the second amended consolidated complaint. On December 20, 2024, the Lead Plaintiffs filed their opposition to the motion to dismiss. The defendants’ final reply brief was filed on February 3, 2025. No hearing date has been set. We deny the allegations in the complaints and intend to vigorously defend the litigation. See Note 10 — Legal And Regulatory Proceedings for additional details. In the event that any of the matters described above result in one or more adverse judgments or settlements, we may experience an adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations or stock price.
Lawsuits and other proceedings have in the past and may in the future result in us incurring significant expenses in settlement and litigation costs. Any negative outcome from any such lawsuits or claims could result in payments of substantial monetary damages or fines, or undesirable changes to our products or business practices and, accordingly, our business, results of operations, financial condition, or prospects could be adversely affected. There can be no assurances that a favorable final outcome will be obtained in any or all instances, and defending any lawsuit, even unmerited claims, is costly and can impose a significant burden on management and employees. Any litigation to which we are a party may result in an onerous or unfavorable judgment that may not be reversed upon appeal or in payments of substantial monetary damages or fines, or we may decide to settle lawsuits on similarly unfavorable terms, which could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, and prospects.
Risks Relating to Regulation and Legal Compliance
We have launched Galleri as a laboratory developed test (“LDT”) in the United States. The FDA recently finalized a regulation pursuant to which it plans to subject LDTs to medical device requirements through a phase-out of its historical policy of enforcement discretion over LDTs over a period of four years. The phase-in of medical device requirements to LDTs, including the potential requirement for FDA marketing authorization, if it imposes new, different or earlier significant obligations, will be costly and time-consuming, and if we fail to comply with such requirements, or if we cannot ultimately obtain marketing authorization for our LDTs where required, our business will be substantially harmed.
While we plan to complete our PMA submission seeking regulatory approval from the FDA for Galleri, we launched Galleri in the United States as an LDT. LDTs are in vitro diagnostic (“IVD”) tests that are intended for clinical use and are designed, manufactured, and used within a single laboratory certified for high complexity testing under CLIA. Although LDTs are classified by the FDA as medical devices and the FDA has asserted statutory authority to ensure that medical devices, including LDTs, are safe and effective for their intended uses, the FDA has historically exercised enforcement discretion and has not enforced certain otherwise applicable FDA requirements, including premarket review, with respect to LDTs, with certain exceptions such as in the case of tests for public health emergencies, where the tests are available directly to the consumer, where the tests represented a significant public health concern, or where the FDA has concerns that a company’s performance claims related to its tests are not sufficiently validated by clinical data.
Even under that enforcement discretion policy, the FDA has issued warning letters to and safety communications about IVD device manufacturers for commercializing laboratory tests that were purported to be LDTs but that the FDA alleged failed to meet the definition of an LDT or otherwise were not subject to the FDA’s enforcement discretion policy.
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The FDA has for a number of years stated its intention to modify its enforcement discretion policy with respect to LDTs and impose applicable medical device requirements to LDTs more broadly. The FDA proposed an amendment to its regulations in October 2023 to clarify the FDA’s historical view that LDTs are medical devices subject to the requirements applicable to other IVDs, and to phase out its enforcement discretion policy over a period of four years from issuance of the final rule, which would involve a phase-in of medical device requirements to these products over this time period. The FDA finalized this rule on May 6, 2024, which would subject our products currently marketed as LDTs and any future products that we may market as LDTs in the future to the FDA’s standard regulatory requirements applicable to medical devices in accordance with this phase-in period, potentially, including the potential requirement for FDA marketing authorization (the “LDT Final Rule”).
In connection with the LDT Final Rule, the FDA established certain new, targeted enforcement discretion policies, including, among others, for LDTs marketed as of the date of publication of the final rule (May 6, 2024), as well as for LDTs that have received approval from New York State’s Clinical Laboratory Evaluation Program (“NY CLEP”). Specifically, the FDA intends to exercise enforcement discretion and not enforce certain medical device requirements (including the requirements for marketing authorization and compliance with certain elements of the Quality System Regulation (“QSR”)) with respect to LDTs that were marketed as of the date of the LDT Final Rule’s publication, although such products must still comply with certain other FDA requirements, including registration and listing, portions of the QSR, medical device reporting, labeling, and corrections and removals reporting. However, where these tests are modified in certain ways from the version of the test marketed as of the LDT Final Rule’s publication date, this enforcement discretion policy will no longer apply and the FDA intends to enforce all applicable FDA requirements (including premarket review and marketing authorization requirements) consistent with the phase-in policy. In addition, for LDTs that receive approval from NY CLEP, the FDA intends not to enforce marketing authorization requirements when these requirements are phased in more generally at either three and a half or four years following the date of publication of the LDT Final Rule. However, these tests will still be subject to the remaining medical device requirements, including registration and listing, medical device reporting, and quality system requirements, at the time that such requirements are phased in more generally.
Notwithstanding these new targeted enforcement discretion policies, depending on the kinds of future changes we make to our currently-marketed LDT or any NY CLEP-approved LDT we offer, we may become subject to the application of the phase-in of all FDA medical device requirements (including the need to seek and obtain marketing authorization) at the time that those medical device requirements are phased in more generally. If we are unable to comply with the phase-in of medical device requirements applicable to our LDTs over the phase-in period, we may be required to cease marketing any products that we market as LDTs. In addition, efforts by the FDA to actively regulate LDTs could create a negative public perception about the validity, safety, effectiveness, or performance of LDTs, including our products, that could adversely affect patient, provider, and customer perception about, and confidence in, our products.
Moreover, the FDA may assert that we are improperly marketing our LDTs and may take enforcement action against us and/or require premarket review and marketing authorizations, even before the deadline for phasing in medical device requirements to LDTs. The FDA may request that we provide additional analyses and information beyond that which we intend to produce based on the designs of our current and planned clinical studies, or that we modify or narrow our intended use or product claims. It is possible that the FDA, among other things, may disagree with our interpretation of data we have relied on to support our LDT launches for our intended uses. If we are required to provide additional analyses or additional data or perform additional clinical studies beyond those we currently contemplate to support the intended uses of our products or future products, our planned commercial launches may be delayed and we may be required to cease commercialization of any products we currently market as LDTs. A delay in the launch of our products or new versions of existing products, or significantly narrowing their intended uses, could negatively impact our financial condition and results of operations.
In addition, Congress has, for over the past decade, considered a number of proposals, which if enacted, would subject LDTs to additional regulatory requirements. For example, in recent years, Congress has worked on legislation to create a novel regulatory framework governing a new category of FDA-regulated products, referred to as in vitro clinical tests (“IVCTs”), which would govern LDTs and would be separate and distinct from the existing medical device regulatory framework. For example, most recently, in March 2023, the Verifying Accurate Leading-edge IVCT Development Act of 2023 (the “VALID Act”) was introduced. The bill would have established a risk-based approach to imposing requirements related to premarket review, quality systems, and labeling requirements on all IVCTs, including LDTs, but would grandfather certain LDTs marketed before the effective date
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of the bill and exempt them from certain requirements. It is unclear whether the VALID Act or any other or similar legislative proposals (including any proposals that would, in contrast, reduce FDA oversight of LDTs) will be passed by Congress or signed into law by the President. Depending on the approach adopted under any potential legislation or regulation, certain LDTs (likely those of higher risk) may be required to undergo some form of premarket review, potentially with a transition period for compliance and a grandfathering provision. Any such legislation could substantially alter our commercial offering and marketing of LDTs and negatively impact our financial condition and results of operations. Furthermore, there is increased uncertainty regarding the FDA’s implementation of the FDA’s LDT final rule under the new U.S. Presidential administration. In particular, the LDT Final Rule has been the subject of significant recent litigation, and it remains possible that under the new U.S. Presidential administration, FDA may abandon or delay the implementation of the LDT Final Rule, or that the administration may not defend the LDT Final Rule against current or future litigation challenges. If the LDT Final Rule is successfully challenged, abandoned or delayed, the regulatory environment around LDTs could be significantly relaxed, which could increase competition and reduce the effectiveness of our regulatory and reimbursement strategy.
Nevertheless, as the FDA begins to phase out its policy of enforcement discretion for LDTs as recently described in the LDT Final Rule, or if it asserts that our LDTs are not eligible for application of its new, targeted enforcement discretion policies, or if Congress enacts legislation such as the VALID Act to subject LDTs to affirmative FDA oversight as IVCTs, we may be required to obtain marketing authorization for our LDT products from the FDA prior to initially launching our future products or may be required to cease marketing any commercially marketed products that are marketed as LDTs until such marketing authorization is obtained or the applications are submitted. There can be no assurance that we will be able to obtain such marketing authorization or that any labeling claims will be consistent with the claims we have made or intend to make for such products when launched as LDTs, or that such claims will be adequate to support continued adoption of and reimbursement for our products. Even if our products are allowed to remain on the market prior to any required marketing authorization, demand or reimbursement for our products may decline if there is uncertainty about our products, if we are required by the FDA to label our products as investigational, or if the FDA limits the labeling claims we are permitted to make for our products. As a result, we could experience significantly increased development costs and a delay in generating additional revenue from our products, or from other future products now in development, which could reduce our revenues or increase our costs and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, or growth prospects.
The regulatory clearance, approval, or certification processes of the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities or notified bodies are lengthy, time-consuming, and unpredictable. If we are ultimately unable to obtain any necessary or desirable regulatory approvals, clearances, or certifications, or if such approvals, clearances, or certifications are significantly delayed, our business will be substantially harmed.