CF close: $82 on 2023-07-31 to $127 on 2026-07-29.
Daily closing price, split-adjusted to the current basis; 3y shown of 5,271 bars on file. Sampled to 240 points — every point is a real close, none averaged. Price return, not total return (dividends excluded). Source marketstack.
At a glance
Fair value (model)$131.58
Implied upside+3.3%
Valuation confidenceMEDIUM
Price impliesUNDEMANDING · 3.5% growth
Short interest6.0% of sh out
Days to cover3.7d
13F net flow (QoQ)−5.01%
Top-10 13F concentration44.1%
Next report (est.)2026-08-05
Fair value, confidence and the reverse-DCF grade are the MATERIALIZED daily snapshot (the same columns the screener serves), not a live model run. Short interest is FINRA semi-monthly, settlement 2026-07-15. 13F figures are quarterly filings, period 2026-Q1 — a lower bound on true ownership.
Key fundamentalsFY 2025
P/E (FY)14.2×
Sales (TTM)$7.41B
Trailing returns
YTD+66.2%
1Y+37.1%
3Y+66.2%
5Y+197.2%
10Y+578.4%
Since incept. (ann.)+21.3%
Total return through 2026-07-29 · series begins 2005-08-11. Only the windows this history actually covers are shown.
Risk
Ann. volatility (1Y)42.5%
Ann. volatility (3Y)34.7%
Sharpe (1Y)1.02
Sharpe (3Y)0.68
Max drawdown (1Y)−25.4%
Max drawdown (3Y)−29.2%
Beta (3Y vs SPY)−0.20
Daily simple returns, annualized; drawdown is peak-to-trough within the window. Beta is the OLS slope of monthly returns on SPY's over three years. Each figure is labeled by the window it was measured over — they are not comparable across windows.
Top institutional holders13F 2026-Q1
Manager
Shares
Value
% sh out
QoQ
BlackRock, Inc.
12.2M
$1.6B
7.94%
−0.6%
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
10.1M
$1.3B
6.54%
new
STATE STREET CORP
7.9M
$1.0B
5.13%
+0.5%
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
7.7M
$1.0B
5.04%
new
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/
7.5M
$977M
4.90%
+8.7%
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
5.2M
$716M
3.37%
+20.8%
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
4.5M
$579M
2.90%
+3.4%
FMR LLC
4.4M
$566M
2.84%
+0.1%
Reported 13F long positions as filed for 2026-Q1 (change vs 2025-Q4). 13F covers US-listed long equity only — the sum is a LOWER BOUND on institutional ownership, never a total.
Latest reported quarterslast report 2026-05-06
Period end
Reported
EPS
EPS YoY
Revenue
Rev YoY
2026-03-31
2026-05-06
$3.98
+115.1%
$1.99B
+19.4%
2025-12-31
2026-02-18
—
—
$1.87B
+22.8%
2025-09-30
2025-11-05
$2.19
+41.3%
$1.66B
+21.1%
2025-06-30
2025-08-06
$2.37
+3.0%
$1.89B
+20.2%
EPS and revenue as reported in this filer's own XBRL — our extraction of the filings, not a vendor consensus feed, and never a beat/miss claim (we carry no estimates). YoY compares the same fiscal quarter a year earlier. Next report 2026-08-05 is ESTIMATED from filing cadence (median gap 91d) — not company-confirmed.
Segment mixFY2025 (ended Dec 2025)
Ammonia 29% · UAN 28% · Urea 23% · Other Products 7% · All Other Segments 7%
business segments · each slice's share of TAGGED segment revenue in the latest annual filing (XBRL, as filed). Untagged revenue is excluded from the denominator, so slices need not sum to consolidated sales.
Basis & disclosures
End-of-day only. Every price on this sheet is a stored CLOSE — the last one is 2026-07-29. Nothing here is live, intraday or delayed-real-time, and the sheet does not update after it is printed.
Nothing is imputed. A figure that is not in the underlying filing or feed renders as “—”. We never fill a gap with an estimate, a peer median or a carried-forward value.
Mixed as-of dates by design. Prices are at the last close; fundamentals are at the latest reported fiscal period; 13F ownership is at the latest filed quarter (45+ days in arrears); short interest is the latest FINRA settlement. Each block states its own basis above.
Not investment advice. Model fair values, reverse-DCF grades and confidence labels are the output of published, disclosed methods on public filings — they are analysis, not a recommendation, a price target or a solicitation.
Fundamentals and ownership derive from SEC EDGAR (and equivalent foreign registers); prices from a licensed end-of-day vendor, shown under a neutral source label. Full methodology at spzco.com/methodology.
Earnings (TTM)$1.46B
ROE36.6%
Net margin25.4%
Debt / equity0.66×
Total debt / EBITDA1.01×
EPS growth 3Y−18.2%
Sales growth 3Y−14.1%
Screener basis: ratios from the latest reported fiscal year; Sales/Earnings are trailing twelve months in the reporting currency (USD). The P/E is a trailing FULL-YEAR P/E, not TTM. Missing lines are absent from the filings, never imputed.
