Item 1A. Risk Factors.
You should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties described below, as well as the other information in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, including our consolidated financial statements and the related notes and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Our business, financial condition, results of operations or prospects could be materially and adversely affected if any of these risks occurs, and as a result, the market price of our common stock could decline and you could lose all or part of your investment. Our actual results could differ materially and adversely from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of certain factors, including those set forth below.
Risks Related to Our Financial Condition and Capital Requirements
We have a limited operating history and no history of successfully developing or commercializing any approved antiviral products, which may make it difficult to evaluate the success of our business to date and to assess the prospects for our future viability.
We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. Our operations to date have been limited to financing and staffing our company, developing our technology, and identifying and developing our product candidates. Our prospects must be considered in light of the uncertainties, risks, expenses and difficulties frequently encountered by biopharmaceutical companies in their early stages of operations. We have not yet demonstrated an ability to successfully develop, obtain marketing approval, manufacture a product at commercial-scale, or conduct sales and marketing activities necessary for successful product commercialization, or have third parties to do these activities on our behalf. Consequently, predictions about our future success or viability may not be as accurate as they could be if we had a longer operating history or a history of successfully developing, obtaining marketing approval for and commercializing antiviral therapies.
In addition, we may encounter unforeseen expenses, difficulties, complications, delays and other known and unknown obstacles in developing or commercializing our products. For example in September 2024, we announced that the SUNRISE-3 Phase 3 clinical trial we conducted to evaluate bemnifosbuvir versus placebo for the treatment of COVID-19 did not meet the primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in all cause hospitalization or death through Day 29 in the monotherapy cohort of 2,221 high risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19. This led us to discontinue efforts to develop bemnifosbuvir for the treatment of COVID-19.
If we successfully develop and obtain approval of any product candidate, we will need to transition from a company with a research and development focus to a company capable of executing commercial activities. We may not be successful in this transition.
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As we continue to build our business, including beginning and completing late stage clinical trials, we expect our financial condition and operating results may fluctuate significantly from quarter to quarter and year to year due to a variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control. Accordingly, you should not rely upon the results included in this report or reports for any other particular prior quarterly or annual period as indications of future operating performance.
We have incurred significant operating expenses since inception and expect to incur significant additional operating expenses for the foreseeable future. We have no products that have generated any commercial revenue. We expect to incur operating losses in 2025 and for the foreseeable future.
We have incurred significant operating expenses since our inception. For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, our operating expenses were $192.9 million and $164.2 million, respectively. As of December 31, 2024, we had an accumulated deficit of $364.2 million.
We have not commercialized any products and have never generated any revenue from product sales. We have devoted almost all of our financial resources to research and development, including our clinical trials and preclinical development and manufacturing activities. We expect to continue to incur significant additional operating expenses and to incur operating losses for the foreseeable future as we seek to advance product candidates through clinical development, continue preclinical development, pursue research and development activities, discover or acquire and develop product candidates, complete preclinical studies and clinical trials, scale up and complete manufacturing and supply chain activities, seek regulatory approval and, if we receive regulatory approval, commercialize our products.
In order to obtain the FDA’s or a foreign regulatory authority’s approval to market any product candidate in the US or abroad, respectively, we must submit to the FDA a New Drug Application (“NDA”) or similar application to the foreign regulatory authority demonstrating to the FDA’s or foreign regulatory authority’s satisfaction that the product candidate is safe and effective for its intended use(s). This demonstration requires significant research and extensive data from animal tests, which are referred to as nonclinical or preclinical studies, as well as human tests, which are referred to as clinical trials.
Furthermore, the costs of advancing product candidates into each succeeding clinical phase tend to increase substantially over time. For example, as we advanced and completed the enrollment of our COVID-19 Phase 3 SUNRISE-3 clinical trial, our operating expenses increased. We anticipate that operating expenses will also increase in the future as we advance and complete Phase 3 clinical trials evaluating the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV as well as any additional late stage clinical trials. Because of the numerous risks and uncertainties associated with the development of our product candidates, we are unable to accurately predict the timing or amount of increased expenses or when, or if, we will be able to begin generating revenue from the commercialization of products or again achieve profitability.
Further, we expect we will continue to incur substantial operating expenses if or as we:
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continue to discover and develop additional product candidates;
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successfully complete clinical trials and seek regulatory approval for our regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir or other product candidates, if any;
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establish manufacturing and supply chain capacity sufficient to provide commercial quantities of any product candidates for which we may obtain marketing approval, if any;
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establish a sales, marketing, internal systems and distribution infrastructure to commercialize any products for which we may obtain regulatory approval, if any, in geographies in which we plan to commercialize our products ourselves or with collaborators;
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maintain, expand, protect and enforce our intellectual property portfolio;
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hire additional staff, including clinical, scientific, technical, regulatory, operational, financial, commercial and support personnel, to execute our business plan and support our product development and potential future commercialization efforts;
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more extensively utilize external vendors for support with respect to research, development, manufacturing, commercialization, regulatory, pharmacovigilance and other functions;
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acquire or in-license commercial products or additional product candidates and technologies;
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make milestone, royalty or other payments under the Merck License Agreement with respect to the development and commercialization of ruzasvir in combination with bemnifosbuvir for the treatment of HCV;
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make upfront, milestone, royalty or other payments in connection with any future in-license agreements relating to other product candidates; and
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incur continuing and increasing legal, accounting and other expenses in operating our business as a public company.
Furthermore, our ability to successfully develop, commercialize and license any products and generate product revenue is subject to substantial additional risks and uncertainties. Our HCV product candidate and any future product candidates we may discover, license or otherwise acquire, will require regulatory approval in not less than one jurisdiction, the securing of manufacturing supply, capacity, distribution channels and expertise, the use of external vendors, the building of or other access to a commercial organization, substantial investment and significant marketing efforts before we generate any revenue from product sales. Additionally, our HCV product candidate and any future product candidates will require additional preclinical and clinical development. As a result, we expect to continue to use cash for operating activities and incur operating expenses and operating losses for the foreseeable future. The use of cash and incurrence of operating expenses and operating losses has had, and we expect will continue to have, an adverse effect on our working capital.
The amount of future expenses or losses and our ability to achieve or maintain profitability in future years, if ever, are uncertain. We have no products that have generated any commercial revenue, do not expect to generate revenues from the commercial sale of products in the near term, and might never generate revenues from the sale of products. Our ability to generate product revenue and maintain profitability will depend on, among other things, successful completion of the clinical development of our HCV product candidate and other product candidates, if any; obtaining necessary regulatory approvals from the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities; establishing manufacturing and sales capabilities; market acceptance of our products, if approved, and establishing marketing infrastructure or otherwise arranging to commercialize our product candidates for which we obtain approval; and raising sufficient funds to finance our activities. We might not succeed at any of these undertakings. If we are unsuccessful at some or all of these undertakings in the future, our business, prospects, and results of operations may be materially adversely affected.
We may require substantial additional financing, which may not be available on acceptable terms, or at all. A failure to obtain this necessary capital when needed could force us to delay, limit, reduce or terminate our product development or commercialization efforts.
Since inception, we have incurred substantial operating expenses. We expect to incur substantial expenses in connection with our current and planned business activities, particularly the late stage development of the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir. Also, we anticipate that we may incur substantial expenses in connection with the discovery, license or other acquisition and potential development of other product candidates, if any, and, if we successfully develop one or more product candidates, in connection with the establishment of sales, marketing, internal systems and distribution infrastructure to commercialize any products for which we may obtain regulatory approval.
If our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities are not sufficient to fund our future operations, we will need additional capital to fund these activities, which we may raise through equity offerings, debt financings, marketing and distribution arrangements and other collaborations, strategic alliances and licensing arrangements or other sources. Additional sources of financing might not be available on favorable terms, if at all. If we do not succeed in raising additional funds on acceptable terms, we might be unable to initiate or complete planned clinical trials or seek regulatory approvals for our product candidates from the FDA, or any foreign regulatory authorities, and could be forced to discontinue product
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development. In addition, attempting to secure additional financing could divert the time and attention of our management from day-to-day activities and may harm our product candidate development efforts.
The timing and amount of our future capital requirements will depend on many factors, including but not limited to:
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the scope, progress, results and costs of our preclinical studies and clinical trials, in particular the Phase 3 development of the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV;
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the timing of and costs associated with discovery, license or acquisition of a product candidate for the treatment of respiratory or other diseases resulting from infection with single stranded RNA viruses;
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the timing of, and the costs involved in, obtaining marketing approvals for our current and future product candidates in regions where we choose to commercialize any products;
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the number of future product candidates and potential additional indications that we may pursue and their development requirements;
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the stability, scale, yield and cost of manufacturing our product candidates for clinical trials, in preparation for regulatory approval and in preparation for commercialization;
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the costs of manufacturing and commercialization activities for any approved product candidate to the extent such costs are not the responsibility of any future collaborators, including the costs and timing of manufacturing commercial supply at a scale to meet demand and the costs and timing of establishing commercialization capabilities for and conducting product sales, marketing, distribution activities;
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revenue, if any, received from commercial sales of our product candidates, should any of our product candidates receive marketing approval;
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the costs, timing and changes in pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement infrastructure resulting from, among other things, the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) and other legislation and regulations that may be subsequently enacted;
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our ability to compete with other therapies in the indications we target;
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the extent to which we in-license or acquire rights to products, product candidates or technologies in addition to ruzasvir;
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growth of our headcount and associated costs if and as we establish a commercial infrastructure;
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the costs of preparing, filing and prosecuting patent applications and maintaining and protecting our intellectual property rights, including enforcing and defending intellectual property-related claims; and
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the continued costs of operating as a public company.
Currently, we do not have any committed external source of funds or other support and we cannot be certain that additional funding will be available on acceptable terms, if needed. Our ability to access potential sources of future liquidity and raise funds will depend upon financial, economic and geopolitical conditions and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. These external factors, including rates of interest and inflation, will also impact and may increase substantially costs we incur in connection with any potential fundraising. If we are unable to raise additional capital in sufficient amounts, on terms acceptable to us, or on a timely basis, we may have to significantly delay, scale back or discontinue the development or commercialization of our product candidates or other research and development initiatives.
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We may engage in strategic collaborations or other transactions that could disrupt our business, cause dilution to our stockholders, reduce our financial resources, and subject us to other risks.
In the future, we may enter into strategic collaborations or other transactions. In the fourth quarter of 2024, we announced that we had engaged Evercore LLC, a global independent investment bank, to assist us in identifying and exploring potential strategic partnerships related to our regimen of the bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir. While this process is ongoing, there is no assurance that it will result in the completion of any specific transaction or outcome. If we do identify suitable collaboration candidates or strategic partners, we may not be able to complete such collaborations or other strategic transactions on favorable terms, or at all. Any collaborations or other strategic transactions may not strengthen our competitive position, and these transactions may be viewed negatively by stock research analysts or investors, and we may never realize the anticipated benefits of such transactions. We may decide to issue our common stock or other equity securities to a strategic partner or collaborator which would reduce the percentage ownership of our existing stockholders. In addition, we may not be able to successfully integrate with any collaborator or strategic partner in an effective, timely and non-disruptive manner. Collaborations or other strategic transactions may also divert management attention from day-to-day responsibilities, lead to a loss of key personnel, increase our expenses and reduce our cash and cash equivalents available for operations and other uses. We cannot predict the number, timing or size of future collaborations or strategic partnerships or the effect that any such transactions might have on our operating results.
We have not generated any revenue from product sales and may not be able to achieve profitability.
We incurred a net loss of $168.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024. Our ability to achieve and sustain future profitability depends upon our ability to generate revenue from product sales. We have not generated product revenue and we do not expect to generate product revenue unless or until we successfully complete clinical development and obtain regulatory approval of, and then successfully commercialize, at least one of our product candidates. Our HCV product candidate and future product candidates, if any, will require additional preclinical and clinical development, regulatory review and approval, substantial investment in and access to sufficient commercial manufacturing capacity and significant marketing efforts before we can generate any revenue from product sales. Currently, we do not anticipate generating revenue from product sales for at least the next few years. Our ability to generate revenue depends on a number of factors, including, but not limited to:
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timely completion of our clinical trials, including the Phase 3 clinical trials evaluating the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV, as well as our preclinical studies and other clinical trials, each of which may be significantly slower or more costly than we currently anticipate and will depend substantially upon the performance of third-party contractors;
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our ability to complete additional investigational drug application (“IND”) enabling studies and successfully submit INDs, clinical trial application (“CTAs”) or comparable applications to allow us to initiate clinical trials for any other product candidates;
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whether we are required by the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities to conduct additional clinical trials or other studies beyond those planned to support the approval and commercialization of our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates;
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our ability to demonstrate to the satisfaction of the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities the safety and efficacy of our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates;
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the prevalence, duration and severity of potential side effects or other safety issues experienced with our HCV product candidate or future product candidates, if any;
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the timely receipt of necessary marketing approvals from the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities;
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the availability, actual and perceived advantages and relative cost, convenience, safety and efficacy of our HCV product candidate or other product candidates we may be able to commercialize, compared to other commercially available therapies for the targeted indications, as well as the accuracy and sufficiency of clinical evidence supporting any such advantages of our product candidates;
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the willingness of physicians, operators of clinics and patients to conduct or participate in clinical trials evaluating our product candidates and, if successfully developed, to utilize or adopt our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates, if approved as antiviral therapies;
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our ability and the ability of third parties with whom we contract to manufacture adequate clinical and commercial supplies of our HCV or future product candidates, remain in good standing with regulatory authorities and develop, validate and maintain commercially viable manufacturing processes that are compliant with current good manufacturing practices (“cGMP”) or similar requirements outside the US;
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our ability to successfully establish a commercial strategy and thereafter commercialize our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates, in the US and internationally, if approved for marketing, reimbursement, sale and distribution in such countries and territories, whether alone or in collaboration with others; and
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our ability to establish, maintain, protect and enforce intellectual property rights in and to our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates.
Many of the factors listed above are beyond our control, and could cause us to experience significant delays, incur substantially greater expenses than anticipated or prevent us from obtaining regulatory approvals or commercializing our product candidates. Even if we are able to commercialize our product candidates, we may not be able to achieve and maintain profitability after generating product sales or meet outside expectations for our profitability. If we are unable to achieve or sustain profitability or to meet outside expectations for our profitability, the value of our common stock will be materially adversely affected. In addition, if we are unable to generate sufficient revenue through the sale of any products, we may be unable to continue operations.
We maintain our cash at financial institutions, often in balances that exceed federally insured limits.
The majority of our cash is held in accounts at US banking institutions. Cash held in depository accounts may exceed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) standard deposit insurance limit of $250,000. If such banking institutions were to fail, such as Silicon Valley Bank when the FDIC took control in March 2023, we could lose all or a portion of those amounts held in excess of such insured amounts. In the future, our access to our cash in amounts adequate to finance our operations could be significantly impaired if the financial institutions with which we have arrangements encounter liquidity constraints or failures. Any future limitation on timely access to our funds or any material loss that we may experience in the future could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and could materially impact our ability to pay our operating expenses or make other payments.
Our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and other tax attributes to offset taxable income may be subject to certain limitations.
As of December 31, 2024, we had US federal and state net operating loss carryforwards (“NOLs”), of $63.3 million and $98.7 million, respectively.
In general, under Sections 382 and 383 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (“Code”), a corporation that undergoes an “ownership change,” which is generally defined as a greater than 50% change by value in its equity ownership over a three-year period, is subject to limitations on its ability to utilize its pre-change NOLs and its research and development credit carryforwards to offset future taxable income. Our NOLs and research and development credit carryforwards may be subject to limitations
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arising from previous ownership changes, and if we undergo an ownership change, our ability to utilize NOLs (to the extent not previously utilized) and research and development credit carryforwards could be further limited by Sections 382 and 383 of the Code.
For the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023, we have completed a Section 382 study, the results of which indicated that no ownership shift occurred during such respective period. However, this conclusion could be challenged by tax authorities. In addition, future changes in our stock ownership, some of which might be beyond our control, could result in an ownership change under Sections 382 and 383 of the Code. For these reasons, we may not be able to utilize existing NOLs or research and development credit carryforwards or net operating losses and research and development credits that may be generated in the future.
We may delay, suspend or terminate the development of a product candidate at any time if we believe the perceived market or commercial opportunity does not justify further investment or for other strategic business, financial or other reasons, which could materially harm our business and adversely affect our stock price.
Even if the results of preclinical studies and clinical trials that we have conducted or may conduct in the future may support further development of one or more of our product candidates, we may delay, suspend or terminate the future development of a product candidate at any time for strategic, business, financial or other reasons, including the determination or belief that the emerging profile of the product candidate is such that it may not receive regulatory approvals in key markets, gain meaningful market acceptance, otherwise provide any competitive advantages in its intended indication or market or generate a significant return to stockholders. For example, in September 2024, after the SUNRISE-3 Phase 3 clinical trial failed to reach its primary endpoint, we discontinued the development of bemnifosbuvir for the treatment of COVID-19. Any similar delays, suspensions or terminations of other clinical programs or product candidates, particularly our HCV product candidate, could materially harm our business, results of operations or financial condition.
Risks Related to the Discovery, Development, Preclinical and Clinical Testing, Manufacturing and Regulatory Approval of Our Product Candidates
Our business is highly dependent on the success of our product candidate, the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV, which will require significant additional clinical testing, including successful Phase 3 clinical testing, before we can seek regulatory approval and potentially launch commercial sales. If this product candidate fails in clinical development, does not receive regulatory approval or is not successfully commercialized, or is significantly delayed in doing so, our business will be harmed.
A substantial portion of our business and future success depends on our ability to develop, obtain regulatory approval for and successfully commercialize the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV. We currently have no products that are approved for commercial sale and have not successfully completed the development of any of our product candidates, and we may never be able to develop marketable products.
During the near term we expect that a substantial portion of our efforts and expenditures will be devoted to developing the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV which will require additional clinical development, management of clinical, medical affairs and manufacturing activities, obtaining regulatory approvals in multiple jurisdictions, securing of manufacturing supply, building of or otherwise accessing a commercial organization, substantial investment and significant marketing efforts.
We cannot be certain that our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates will be successful in clinical trials, receive regulatory approval or be successfully commercialized even if we receive regulatory approval. Further, our development of any product candidate may be delayed or suspended, which may affect our ability to successfully commercialize such product candidate. Additionally, our ability to successfully commercialize a product will also be dependent upon our ability to timely manufacture at commercial scale the quantities of product that will satisfy market demand.
Even if we receive approval to market our HCV product candidate or any other product candidate, we cannot be certain that such product candidate will be as or more effective than commercially available
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alternatives successfully commercialized or widely accepted in the marketplace. There are currently approved and well established oral antiviral HCV products against which we would be required to compete if the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir is approved.
We cannot be certain that, if approved, the safety and efficacy profile of the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir will be consistent with the results observed in clinical trials. If we are not successful in the clinical development of the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV, if the required regulatory approvals for this product candidate are not obtained, if there are significant delays in the development or approval of this product candidate or in supplying commercial quantities of any approved products on an uninterrupted basis, or if we are otherwise not commercially successful, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially harmed.
The regulatory approval processes of the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities are lengthy, expensive, time-consuming, and inherently unpredictable. If we are ultimately unable to obtain regulatory approval for our product candidates, we will be unable to generate product revenue and our business will be seriously harmed.
We are not permitted to commercialize, market, promote or sell any product candidate in the US without obtaining marketing approval from the FDA. Foreign regulatory authorities impose similar requirements. The time required to obtain approval by the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authorities is unpredictable, typically takes many years following the commencement of clinical trials and depends upon numerous factors, including the type, complexity and novelty of the product candidates involved and the disease or condition for which the product candidate is intended.
In addition, approval policies, regulations or the type and amount of clinical data necessary to gain approval may change during the course of a product candidate’s clinical development, and may vary among jurisdictions, which may cause delays in the approval or the decision not to approve an application.
Regulatory authorities have substantial discretion in the approval process and may refuse to accept any application or may decide that our data are insufficient for approval and require additional preclinical, clinical or other studies. Approval by any one regulatory authority does not ensure approval by any other regulatory authority.
We have not submitted an NDA for, or obtained regulatory approval of, any product candidate. We must complete additional clinical and preclinical studies to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of our product candidates in humans to the satisfaction of the regulatory authorities before we will be able to obtain these approvals, and it is possible that neither our HCV product candidate nor any product candidates we may seek to develop in the future will ever obtain regulatory approval. Applications for our product candidates could fail to receive regulatory approval for many reasons, including but not limited to the following:
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the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree with the design, implementation or interpretation of results of our clinical trials;
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the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may determine that our product candidates are not safe and effective, only moderately effective or have undesirable or unintended side effects, toxicities or other characteristics that preclude our obtaining marketing approval or prevent or limit commercial use of our products;
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the population studied in the clinical program may not be sufficiently broad or representative to assure efficacy and safety in the full population for which we seek approval;
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we may be unable to demonstrate to the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities that a product candidate’s clinical and other benefits outweigh its safety risks;
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the data collected from clinical trials of our product candidates may not be sufficient to support the submission of an NDA or other submission or to obtain regulatory approval in the US or elsewhere;
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the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may fail to approve the manufacturing processes, test procedures and specifications, or facilities of third-party manufacturers with which we contract for clinical and commercial supplies; and
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the approval policies or regulations of the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may significantly change in a manner rendering our clinical data insufficient for approval.
The lengthy regulatory process, as well as the unpredictability of the results of clinical trials, may result in our failing to obtain regulatory approval to market our HCV product candidate and any future product candidates, which may seriously harm our business. In addition, even if we were to obtain approval, regulatory authorities may approve any of our product candidates for fewer or more limited indications than we request, may impose significant limitations in the form of narrow indications, warnings, or a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (“REMS”) or similar risk management measures. Regulatory authorities may not approve the price we intend to charge for products we may develop, may grant approval contingent on the performance of costly post-marketing clinical trials, or may approve a product candidate with a label that does not include the labeling claims necessary or desirable for the successful commercialization of that product candidate. Any of the foregoing scenarios could seriously harm our business.
Clinical development, including enrollment of patients in clinical trials, is an expensive, lengthy and uncertain process. We may encounter substantial delays and costs in our clinical trials, or may not be able to conduct or complete our clinical trials on the timelines we expect, if at all.
Before obtaining marketing approval from the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities for the sale of our product candidates, we must complete preclinical development and extensive clinical trials to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of our product candidates. Clinical testing is expensive, time-consuming and subject to uncertainty. A failure of one or more clinical trials can occur at any stage of the process, such as the failure in September 2024 of bemnifosbuvir to meet the primary endpoint in the COVID-19 Phase 3 SUNRISE-3 clinical trial. The outcome of preclinical studies and early-stage clinical trials may not be predictive of the success of later clinical trials. Moreover, preclinical and clinical data, particularly the analysis of exploratory endpoints and analysis of data derived from patient subgroups, including in the case of HCV, patients infected with varying viral genotypes are often susceptible to varying interpretations, and many companies that have believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in preclinical studies and varying stages of clinical trials have nonetheless failed to obtain marketing approval of their drugs.
To date, we have not successfully concluded any late-stage or pivotal clinical trials for any of our product candidates. We cannot guarantee that any of our planned or ongoing clinical trials will be initiated or conducted as planned or completed on schedule, if at all. We also cannot be sure that submission of any future IND or similar application will result in the FDA or other regulatory authority, as applicable, allowing future clinical trials to begin in a timely manner, if at all. Moreover, even if these trials begin, issues may arise that could cause regulatory authorities to suspend or terminate such clinical trials.
Events that may prevent successful or timely initiation or completion of clinical trials include but are not limited to:
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inability to generate sufficient preclinical, toxicology, or other in vivo or in vitro data to support the initiation or continuation of clinical trials;
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delays in reaching a consensus with regulatory authorities on study design or implementation of the clinical trials;
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delays or failure in obtaining regulatory allowance to commence or amend a clinical trial;
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delays in reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective CROs and clinical trial sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among CROs and clinical trial sites;
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delays in identifying, recruiting and training suitable clinical investigators;
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delays in obtaining required institutional review board (“IRB”) or ethics committee approval or positive opinion at each clinical trial site;
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delays in recruiting, screening and enrolling a suitable number and diversity of patients to participate in our clinical trials;
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subjects enrolled in our clinical trials or clinical sites deviating from the clinical trial protocol or dropping out of a trial;
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delays in manufacturing, testing, releasing, validating or importing/exporting sufficient stable quantities of our product candidates for use in clinical trials or the inability to do any of the foregoing;
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insufficient or inadequate supply or quality of product candidates or other materials necessary for use in clinical trials, or delays in sufficiently developing, characterizing or controlling a manufacturing process suitable for clinical trials;
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imposition of a temporary or permanent clinical hold by regulatory authorities for a number of reasons, including after review of an IND or amendment or equivalent foreign application or amendment; as a result of a new safety finding that presents unreasonable risk to clinical trial participants; or a negative finding from an inspection of our clinical trial operations or study sites;
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developments on trials conducted by competitors for related technology that raises FDA or foreign regulatory authority concerns about risk to patients of the technology broadly;
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developments during the course of a clinical trial that cause the FDA, a foreign regulatory authority or the clinical trial DSMB to find that the investigational protocol or plan is clearly deficient to meet its stated objectives;
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difficulty collaborating with patient groups and investigators;
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failure by our CROs, other third parties or us to adhere to clinical trial protocols; failure to perform in accordance with the FDA’s or any other regulatory authority’s good clinical practices (“GCPs”), or applicable regulatory guidelines in other countries;
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occurrence of adverse events associated with the product candidate that are viewed to outweigh its potential benefits, or occurrence of adverse events in trial of the same class of agents conducted by other companies;
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changes to the clinical trial protocols;
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delays caused by patients withdrawing from clinical trials or failing to return for post-treatment follow-up;
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changes in regulatory requirements and guidance that require amending or submitting new clinical protocols or otherwise impact the conduct of the clinical trial;
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changes in the standard of care or rate of event occurrence upon which a clinical development plan was based, which may require discontinuation of current trials or new or additional trials;
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selection of clinical endpoints that require prolonged periods of observation or analyses of resulting data;
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the cost of clinical trials of our product candidates being greater than we anticipate;
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clinical trials of our product candidates producing negative or inconclusive results, which may result in our deciding, or regulators requiring us, to conduct additional clinical trials or abandon development of such product candidates;
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transfer of manufacturing processes to larger-scale facilities operated by a CMO and delays or failure by our CMOs or us to make any necessary changes to such manufacturing process; and
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third parties being unwilling or unable to satisfy their contractual obligations to us.
Any inability to successfully complete our Phase 3 clinical trials evaluating the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV or the completion of any other planned clinical trials we may initiate could result in additional costs to us or impair our ability to seek approval for our HCV product candidate or any future product candidates and ultimately generate revenue from product sales.
In addition, if we make manufacturing or formulation changes to our product candidates, we may be required to or we may elect to conduct additional studies to bridge our modified product candidates to earlier versions. Clinical trial delays could also shorten any periods during which any approved products have patent protection and may allow our competitors to further strengthen the market position of their current products or bring new products to market before we do, which could impair our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates and may seriously harm our business.
We could also encounter delays if a clinical trial is suspended or terminated by us, by the DSMB for such trial, or by the FDA or any other regulatory authority, or if the IRBs of the institutions at which such trials are being conducted suspend or terminate the participation of the clinical investigators and sites subject to their review. Such authorities may suspend or terminate a clinical trial due to a number of factors, including failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements or our clinical protocols, inspection of the clinical trial operations or trial site by the FDA or other regulatory authorities resulting in the imposition of a clinical hold, unforeseen safety issues or adverse side effects, failure to demonstrate a benefit from using a product candidate, changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions or lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial.
Further, conducting clinical trials in foreign countries, as we are currently doing for our HCV product candidate and otherwise expect to do for other product candidates, if any, presents additional risks that may delay completion of our clinical trials. These risks include the failure of enrolled patients in foreign countries to adhere to clinical protocol as a result of differences in healthcare services or cultural customs, managing additional administrative burdens associated with foreign regulatory schemes, as well as political and economic risks relevant to such foreign countries.
Delays in the completion of any clinical trial of our product candidates will increase our costs, slow down our product candidate development and approval process and delay or potentially jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate product revenue. In addition, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of our product candidates. Any delays to our clinical trials that occur as a result could shorten any period during which we may have the exclusive right to commercialize our product candidates and our competitors may be able to further strengthen the market position of their current products or bring new or additional products to market before we do, which could significantly reduce the commercial viability of our product candidates. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly.
In addition, the FDA’s and other regulatory authorities’ policies with respect to clinical trials may change and additional government regulations may be enacted. For instance, the regulatory landscape related to clinical trials in the EU recently evolved. The EU CTR which was adopted in April 2014 and repeals the EU Clinical Trials Directive (“Clinical Trial Directive”), became applicable on January 31, 2022. While the EU Clinical Trials Directive required a separate CTA to be submitted in each member state in which the clinical trial takes place, to both the competent national health authority and an independent ethics committee, the CTR introduces a centralized process and only requires the submission of a single application for multi-center trials. The CTR allows sponsors to make a single submission to both the competent authority and an ethics committee in each member state, leading to a single decision per member state. The assessment procedure of the CTA has been harmonized as well, including a joint assessment by all member states concerned, and a separate assessment by each member state with respect to specific requirements related to its own territory, including ethics rules. Each member state’s decision is communicated to the sponsor via the centralized EU portal. Once the CTA is approved, clinical study development may proceed. As of January 31, 2025, all CTAs and clinical trials conducted in the EU (including those which are ongoing) are subject to the provisions of the CTR. As a result, the CTAs we submit in connection with the proposed conduct of our HCV Phase 3 clinical trial in the EU must be in compliance with the CTR requirements. We have limited experience submitting applications under the
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CTR. If we or our third-party service providers, such as CROs, encounter difficulties or are unable to comply with the CTR requirements our developments plans would be adversely impacted.
It is currently unclear to what extent the UK will seek to align its regulations with the EU. The extent to which the regulation of clinical trials in the UK will mirror the (EU) CTR in the long term is not yet certain, however, on December 12, 2024, the UK government introduced a legislative proposal - the Medicines for Human Use (Clinical Trials) Amendment Regulations 2024 - that, if implemented, will replace the current regulatory framework for clinical trials in the UK. The legislative proposal aims to provide a more flexible regime to make it easier to conduct clinical trials in the UK, increase the transparency of clinical trials conducted in the UK and make clinical trials more patient centered. The UK government has provided the legislative proposal to the UK Parliament for its review and approval. Once the legislative proposal is approved (with or without amendment), it will be adopted into UK law which is expected in early 2026. A decision by the UK not to closely align its regulations with the new approach that has been adopted in the EU may have an effect on the cost of conducting clinical trials in the UK as opposed to other countries.
If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies governing clinical trials, our development plans may also be impacted.
We are developing certain of our product candidates in combination with other therapies, which exposes us to additional risks.
Combination therapies are commonly used for the treatment of viral infections. Developing combination therapies exposes us to additional clinical risks, such as the requirement that we demonstrate the safety and efficacy of each active component of any combination regimen we may develop.
For the treatment of HCV, we are currently developing bemnifosbuvir in combination with ruzasvir, a product candidate that has not yet been approved for marketing by the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities.
If the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities do not approve the combination agents or revoke their approval thereof, or if safety, efficacy, manufacturing, or supply issues arise with the drugs we choose to evaluate in combination with our product candidates, we may be unable to obtain approval of or market our product candidates for combination therapy regimens.
Additionally, if the third-party manufacturers of therapies or therapies in development used in combination with our product candidates are unable to produce sufficient quantities for clinical trials or for commercialization of our product candidates, or if the cost of combination therapies are prohibitive, our development and commercialization efforts would be impaired, which would have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
Our product candidates may be associated with serious adverse events, undesirable side effects or have other properties that could halt their clinical development, prevent their regulatory approval, limit their commercial potential or result in significant negative consequences.
Adverse events or other undesirable side effects caused by our product candidates could cause us, our collaborators, any DSMB for a trial, or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities.
During the conduct of clinical trials, patients report changes in their health, including illnesses, injuries, and discomforts, to their study doctor. Often, it is not possible to determine whether or not the product candidate being studied caused these conditions. It is possible that as we test our product candidates in larger, longer and more extensive clinical trials, or as use of these product candidates becomes more widespread if they receive regulatory approval, illnesses, injuries, discomforts and other adverse events that were observed in previous trials, as well as conditions that did not occur or went undetected in previous trials, will be reported by patients. Many times, side effects are only detectable after investigational products are tested in large-scale clinical trials or, in some cases, after they are made available to patients on a commercial scale following approval.
If any serious adverse events occur, clinical trials or commercial distribution of any product we successfully develop could be suspended or terminated, and our business could be seriously harmed.
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Treatment-related side effects could also affect patient recruitment and the ability of enrolled patients to complete the trial or result in potential liability claims. Regulatory authorities could order us to cease further development of, deny approval of, or require us to cease selling any product candidate or product for any or all targeted indications. If we are required to delay, suspend or terminate any clinical trial or commercialization efforts, the commercial prospects of such product candidate or product may be harmed, and our ability to generate revenues from such product or that we develop may be delayed or eliminated. Additionally, if one or more of our product candidates receives marketing approval and we or others later identify undesirable side effects or adverse events caused by such products, a number of potentially significant negative consequences could result, including but not limited to:
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regulatory authorities may suspend, limit or withdraw approvals of such product, or seek an injunction against its manufacture or distribution;
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regulatory authorities may require additional warnings on the label, including “boxed” warnings, or issue safety alerts, Dear Healthcare Provider letters, press releases or other communications containing warnings or other safety information about the product;
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we may be required to change the way the product is administered or conduct additional clinical trials or post-approval studies;
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we may be required to create a REMS or similar risk management measures which could include a medication guide outlining the risks of such side effects for distribution to patients;
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we may be subject to fines, injunctions or the imposition of criminal penalties;
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we could be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients; and
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our reputation may suffer.
Any of these events could prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the particular product candidate, if approved, and could seriously harm our business, financial condition and results of operations.
If we encounter difficulties enrolling and retaining enrolled patients in our clinical trials and having patients comply with the clinical trial protocol, our clinical development activities could be delayed or otherwise adversely affected.
We may experience difficulties in patient enrollment in our clinical trials for a variety of reasons. The timely completion of clinical trials in accordance with their protocols depends, among other things, on our ability to enroll a sufficient number of patients who remain adherent to the protocol and in the trial until its conclusion. A delay in the completion of the study would also delay our ability to seek regulatory approval to commercialize the product candidate which is being evaluated in the clinical trial.
Enrollment of patients depends on many factors, including but not limited to:
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the patient eligibility criteria defined in the protocol;
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the size of the target disease population and rates of diagnostic testing among the target disease population;
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the size of the patient population required for analysis of the trial’s primary endpoints;
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the proximity of patients to trial sites;
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the design of the trial;
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our ability to recruit clinical trial investigators with the appropriate competencies and experience;
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clinicians’ and patients’ perceptions as to the potential advantages of the product candidate being studied in relation to other available therapies, including any products that may be approved for the indications we are investigating;
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our ability to obtain and maintain patient consents;
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the risk that patients enrolled in clinical trials will drop out of the trials before trial completion;
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the risk that patients enrolled in the clinical trial will fail to adhere to the protocol; and
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other factors outside of our control, such as political unrest, war, terrorism and the occurrence of a global health crisis similar to COVID-19 which, among other things, created substantial burdens on healthcare providers who were required to prioritize immediate critical patient care over clinical research.
In addition, our clinical trials may compete with other clinical trials sponsored by third parties, including potential competitors, that are in the same or substantially similar therapeutic areas as our product candidates, and this competition may reduce the number and types of patients available to us because some patients who might have opted to enroll in our trials may instead opt to enroll in a trial being conducted by one of our competitors. Since the number of qualified clinical investigators is limited, it is possible that we will conduct some of our clinical trials at the same clinical trial sites that some of our competitors use, which will reduce the number of patients who are available for our clinical trials at such clinical trial sites.
Delays in patient enrollment may result in increased costs or may affect the timing or outcome of our ongoing and planned clinical trials, which could prevent completion or commencement of these trials and adversely affect our ability to advance the development of our product candidates.
Patients failing to adhere to the protocol, whether as a result of failing to take the drug as directed or otherwise, may adversely impact the clinical trial results if the lack of adherence or other failure to follow the protocol contributes to or results in the patient failing to meet the clinical trial primary endpoint.
A Fast Track designation by the FDA may not lead to a faster development or regulatory review or approval process, and does not increase the likelihood that our product candidates will receive marketing approval.
If a product candidate is intended for the treatment of a serious or life-threatening condition and the product candidate demonstrates the potential to address unmet medical needs for such condition, the product candidate sponsor may apply for Fast Track designation. The sponsor of a product candidate that has received Fast Track designation may have opportunities for more frequent interactions with the FDA review team during product development and, once a NDA is submitted, the NDA may be eligible for priority review. An NDA for a Fast Track designated product candidate may also be eligible for rolling review, where the FDA may consider review of sections of the NDA on a rolling basis before the complete NDA is submitted.
The FDA has broad discretion whether or not to grant Fast Track designation to any particular product candidate. As a result, we may seek such Fast Track designation for other product candidates, but cannot assure you that the FDA would decide to grant it. Even if a Fast Track designation has been received, the sponsor may not experience a faster development process, review or approval compared to conventional FDA procedures. The FDA may withdraw Fast Track designation if it believes that the designation is no longer supported by data from our clinical development program. Many product candidates that have received Fast Track designation have nevertheless failed to obtain approval.
We currently conduct clinical trials, and may in the future choose to conduct additional clinical trials, of our product candidates in sites outside the US, and the FDA may not accept data from trials conducted in foreign locations.
We currently conduct, and expect in the future to conduct, clinical trials outside the US for our product candidates. The acceptance of study data from clinical trials conducted outside the US or another jurisdiction by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may be subject to certain conditions or may not be accepted at all. In cases where data from foreign clinical trials are intended to serve as the sole basis for marketing approval in the US, the FDA will generally not approve the application on the basis of foreign data alone unless (i) the data are applicable to the US population and US medical practice; (ii) the trials were performed by clinical investigators of recognized competence and pursuant to GCP regulations; and (iii) the data may be considered valid without the need for an on-site inspection by the FDA, or if the FDA considers such inspection to be necessary, the FDA is able to validate the data
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through an on-site inspection or other appropriate means. In addition, even where the foreign study data are not intended to serve as the sole basis for approval, if the study was not otherwise subject to an IND, the FDA will not accept the data as support for an application for marketing approval unless the study was conducted in accordance with GCP requirements and the FDA is able to validate the data from the study through an onsite inspection if deemed necessary. Many foreign regulatory authorities have similar approval requirements. In addition, such foreign trials would be subject to the applicable local laws of the foreign jurisdictions where the trials are conducted. There can be no assurance that the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority will accept data from trials conducted outside of the US or the applicable jurisdiction. If the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority does not accept such data, it would result in the need for additional trials, which could be costly and time-consuming, and which may result in current or future product candidates that we may develop not receiving approval for commercialization in the applicable jurisdiction.
In addition, there are risks inherent in conducting clinical trials in multiple jurisdictions, inside and outside of the US, such as:
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regulatory and administrative requirements of the jurisdiction where the trial is conducted that could burden or limit our ability to conduct our clinical trials;
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foreign exchange fluctuations;
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manufacturing, customs, shipment and storage requirements for clinical trial materials and supplies as well as shipment and storage of biological samples;
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cultural differences in medical practice and clinical research; and
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the risk that the patient populations in such trials are not considered representative as compared to the patient population in the target markets where approval is being sought.
Interim, “topline” and preliminary data from our clinical trials that we announce or publish from time to time may change as more patient data become available and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data.
From time to time, we may publicly disclose preliminary or top-line data from our preclinical studies and clinical trials, which is based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data. Similar to all preliminary and then-available data, these results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change as additional data becomes available or following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular study or trial. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. Consequently, the top-line or preliminary data that we report may differ from final results reported from the same studies, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such preliminary or topline data, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Top-line and preliminary data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final results being materially different from the preliminary or topline data we previously published. As a result, top-line and preliminary data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available.
From time to time, we may also disclose interim data from our preclinical studies and clinical trials. Interim data from clinical trials that we may subsequently complete are subject to the risk that one or more of the clinical outcomes may materially change as patient enrollment continues and more patient data become available or as patients from our clinical trials continue other treatments for their disease. Adverse differences between preliminary or interim data and final results could significantly harm our business prospects. Further, disclosure of interim data by us or by our competitors could result in volatility in the price of our common stock.
Further, others, including regulatory agencies, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular program, the approvability or commercialization of the particular product candidate or product and our company in general.
In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is based on what is typically extensive information, and you or others may not agree with what we
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determine is material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure. If the interim, top-line, or preliminary data that we report differ from actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize, our product candidates may be harmed, which could harm our business, operating results, prospects or financial condition.
We may not be successful in our efforts to identify and successfully develop additional product candidates.
Part of our strategy involves identifying novel product candidates. For example, we are currently engaged in internal efforts to identify product candidates for the treatment of respiratory and other diseases resulting from infection with single stranded RNA viruses.
Our efforts to discover such product candidates and any subsequent discovery efforts we initiate to identify other novel product candidates may fail to yield product candidates for clinical development for a number of reasons, including those discussed in these risk factors and also:
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we may not be able to assemble sufficient resources to acquire or discover additional product candidates;
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competitors may develop alternatives that render our potential product candidates obsolete or less attractive;
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potential product candidates we develop may nevertheless be covered by third-parties’ patent or other intellectual property or exclusive rights;
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potential product candidates may, on further study, be shown to have harmful side effects, toxicities or other characteristics that indicate that they are unlikely to be products that will receive marketing approval or achieve market acceptance, if approved;
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potential product candidates may not be effective in treating their targeted diseases or symptoms;
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the market for a potential product candidate may change so that the continued development of that product candidate is no longer reasonable;
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a potential product candidate may not be capable of being produced in commercial quantities at an acceptable cost, or at all; or
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the regulatory pathway for a potential product candidate is highly complex and difficult to navigate successfully or economically.
If we are unable to identify and successfully develop and commercialize additional suitable product candidates, this would adversely impact our business strategy and our financial position.
We may focus on potential product candidates that may prove to be unsuccessful and we may have to forego opportunities to develop other product candidates that may prove to be more successful.
We may choose to focus our efforts and resources on one or more potential product candidates that ultimately prove to be unsuccessful as was the case with the failure of bemnifosbuvir to meet the primary endpoint in the COVID-19 Phase 3 SUNRISE-3 clinical trial. Further, we may license or purchase a marketed product that does not meet our financial expectations. As a result, we may fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities, be required to forego or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates or other diseases that may later prove to have greater commercial potential.
Furthermore, we have limited financial and personnel resources and are placing significant focus on the development of our lead product candidate, the regimen of bemnifosbuvir and ruzasvir for the treatment of HCV, and as such, we may forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities with other future product candidates that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future research and development programs and other future product candidates for specific
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indications may not yield any commercially viable future product candidates. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a particular product candidate, we may relinquish valuable rights to such product candidate through collaboration, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights to such future product candidates.
We may attempt to secure FDA approval of certain product candidates through the use of the accelerated approval pathway or similar expedited approval pathways outside the US. If we are unable to obtain such approval, we may be required to conduct additional preclinical studies or clinical trials beyond those that we contemplate, which could increase the expense of obtaining, and delay the receipt of, necessary marketing approvals. Even if we receive accelerated approval from the FDA or similar expedited approval by foreign regulatory authorities, if our confirmatory trials do not verify clinical benefit, or if we do not comply with rigorous post-marketing requirements, the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities may seek to withdraw accelerated approval or similar conditional approval.
We are developing our product candidates for the treatment of seriousconditions, and therefore may decide to seek approval of such product candidates under the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway. A product candidate may be eligible for accelerated approval if it is designed to treat a serious or life-threatening disease or condition and generally provides a meaningful advantage over available therapies, upon a determination that the product candidate has an effect on a surrogate endpoint or intermediate clinical endpoint that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. The FDA considers a clinical benefit to be a positive therapeutic effect that is clinically meaningful in the context of a given disease, such as irreversible morbidity or mortality. For the purposes of accelerated approval, a surrogate endpoint is a marker, such as a laboratory measurement, radiographic image, physical sign, or other measure that is thought to predict clinical benefit, but is not itself a measure of clinical benefit. An intermediate clinical endpoint is a clinical endpoint that can be measured earlier than an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality that is reasonably likely to predict an effect on irreversible morbidity or mortality or other clinical benefit.
The accelerated approval pathway may be used in cases in which the advantage of a new drug over available therapy may not be a direct therapeutic advantage, but is a clinically important improvement from a patient and public health perspective. If granted, accelerated approval is usually contingent on the sponsor’s agreement to conduct, in a diligent manner, confirmatory studies to verify and describe the drug’s clinical benefit. If the sponsor fails to conduct such studies in a timely manner, or if such confirmatory studies fail to verify the drug’s predicted clinical benefit, the FDA may withdraw its approval of the drug on an expedited basis. Additionally, as a part of the Food and Drug Omnibus Reform Act of 2022, the FDA obtained statutory authority to mitigate potential risks to patients from continued marketing of ineffective drugs previously granted accelerated approval. Under these provisions, the FDA may require a sponsor of a product seeking accelerated approval to have a confirmatory trial underway prior to such approval being granted.
In the EU, a “conditional” marketing authorization may be granted in cases where all the required safety and efficacy data are not yet available. A conditional marketing authorization is subject to conditions to be fulfilled for generating missing data or ensuring increased safety measures. A conditional marketing authorization is valid for one year and has to be renewed annually until fulfillment of all relevant conditions. Once the applicable pending studies are provided, a conditional marketing authorization can become a “standard” marketing authorization. However, if the conditions are not fulfilled within the timeframe set by the EMA, the marketing authorization will cease to be renewed. Furthermore, marketing authorizations may also be granted “under exceptional circumstances” when the applicant can show that it is unable to provide comprehensive data on the efficacy and safety under normal conditions of use even after the product has been authorized and subject to the introduction of specific procedures. This may arise when the intended indications are very rare and, in the present state of scientific knowledge, it is not possible to provide comprehensive information, or when generating data may be contrary to generally accepted ethical principles. This type of marketing authorization is close to a conditional marketing authorization as it is reserved to medicinal products to be approved for severe diseases or unmet medical needs and the applicant does not hold the complete data set legally required for the grant of a marketing authorization. However, unlike a conditional marketing authorization, the applicant does not have to
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provide the missing data and will never have to. Although a marketing authorization “under exceptional circumstances” is granted definitively, the risk-benefit balance of the medicinal product is reviewed annually and the marketing authorization may be withdrawn where the risk-benefit ratio is no longer favorable.
The competent regulatory authorities in the EU have broad discretion whether to grant such a conditional marketing authorization or marketing authorization under exceptional circumstances, and, even if such assessment or authorization is granted, we may not experience a faster development process, review or authorization compared to conventional procedures. Moreover, the removal or threat of removal of such marketing authorizations may create uncertainty or delay in the clinical development of our product candidates and threaten the commercialization prospects of our products and product candidates, if approved. Such an occurrence could materially impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.
If we decide to submit an NDA seeking accelerated approval or receive an expedited regulatory designation for our product candidates, there can be no assurance that such submission or application will be accepted or that any expedited development, review or approval will be granted on a timely basis, or at all. Failure to obtain accelerated approval or any other form of expedited development, review or approval for a product candidate would result in a longer time period prior to commercialization of such product candidate, if any, and could increase the cost of development of such product candidate, which could harm our competitive position in the marketplace.
Even if we complete the necessary preclinical studies and clinical trials, the marketing approval process is expensive, time-consuming and uncertain and may prevent us or any future collaboration partners from obtaining approvals for the commercialization of any product candidate we develop.
Any product candidates we may develop and the activities associated with their development and commercialization, including their design, testing, manufacture, safety, efficacy, recordkeeping, labeling, storage, approval, advertising, promotion, sale and distribution, are subject to comprehensive regulation by the FDA and other regulatory authorities in the US and by comparable authorities in other countries. Any product candidates we develop may not be effective, may be only moderately effective, or may prove to have undesirable or unintended side effects, toxicities or other characteristics that may preclude our obtaining marketing approval or prevent or limit commercial use. Failure to obtain marketing approval for a product candidate will prevent us from commercializing the product candidate in a given jurisdiction. We have not received approval to market any product candidates from regulatory authorities in any jurisdiction. It is possible that none of the HCV product candidate we are developing or product candidates, if any, that we may seek to develop in the future will ever obtain regulatory approval. We, as a company, have no experience in filing and supporting the applications necessary to gain marketing approvals and expect to rely on third-party CROs, suppliers, vendors or regulatory consultants to assist us in this process. Securing regulatory approval requires the submission of extensive preclinical and clinical data and supporting information to the various regulatory authorities for each therapeutic indication to establish the product candidate’s safety and efficacy. Securing regulatory approval also requires the submission of information about the product manufacturing process to, and inspection of manufacturing facilities by, the relevant regulatory authority.
The process of obtaining marketing approvals, both in the US and abroad, is expensive, may take many years if numerous clinical trials are required, if approval is obtained at all, and can vary substantially based upon a variety of factors, including the type, complexity and novelty of the product candidates involved. Changes in marketing approval policies during the development period, changes in or the enactment of additional statutes or regulations, or changes in regulatory review for each submitted product application, may cause delays in the approval or rejection of an application. For instance, the EU pharmaceutical legislation is currently undergoing a complete review process, in the context of the Pharmaceutical Strategy for Europe initiative, launched by the European Commission in November 2020. The European Commission's proposal for revision of several legislative instruments related to medicinal products (potentially reducing the duration of regulatory data protection, revising the eligibility for expedited pathways, etc.) was published on April 26, 2023. The proposed revisions have yet to be agreed and adopted by the European Parliament and European Council and the proposal may therefore be
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substantially revised before adoption, which is not anticipated before early 2026. The revisions may however have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical industry and our business in the long term.
The FDA and comparable authorities in other countries have substantial discretion in the approval process and may refuse to accept any application or may decide that our data are insufficient for approval and require additional preclinical, clinical or other studies. In addition, varying interpretations of the data obtained from preclinical and clinical testing could delay, limit or prevent marketing approval of a product candidate. Any marketing approval we ultimately obtain may be limited or subject to restrictions or post-approval commitments that render the approved product not commercially viable.
If we experience delays in obtaining approval or if we fail to obtain approval of any product candidates we may develop, the commercial prospects for those product candidates may be harmed, and our ability to generate product revenue will be materially impaired.
Even if we obtain FDA approval of any of our product candidates, we may never obtain approval or commercialize such products outside of the US, which would limit our ability to realize their full market potential.
In order to market any products outside of the US, we must establish and comply with numerous and varying regulatory requirements of other countries regarding safety and efficacy. Clinical trials conducted in one country may not be accepted by regulatory authorities in other countries, and regulatory approval in one country does not mean that regulatory approval will be obtained in any other country. Approval procedures vary among countries and can involve additional product testing and validation and additional administrative review periods. Seeking foreign regulatory approvals could result in significant delays, difficulties and costs for us and may require additional preclinical studies or clinical trials which would be costly and time-consuming. Regulatory requirements can vary widely from country to country and could delay or prevent the introduction of our products in those countries. Satisfying these and other regulatory requirements is costly, time-consuming, uncertain and subject to unanticipated delays. In addition, our failure to obtain regulatory approval in any country may delay or have negative effects on the process for regulatory approval in other countries. We do not have any product candidates approved for sale in any jurisdiction, including international markets, and as an organization we do not have experience in obtaining regulatory approval in international markets. If we fail to comply with regulatory requirements in international markets or to obtain and maintain required approvals, our ability to realize the full market potential of our products will be harmed.
Even if a current or future product candidate receives marketing approval, it may fail to achieve the degree of market acceptance by physicians, patients, third-party payors and others in the medical community necessary for commercial success.
If any current or future product candidate we develop receives marketing approval, whether as a single agent or in combination with other therapies, it may nonetheless fail to gain sufficient market acceptance by physicians, patients, third-party payors and others in the medical community. For example, current approved oral antiviral products are well established in the medical community for the treatment of HCV and doctors may continue to rely on these therapies.
If the product candidates we develop do not achieve an adequate level of acceptance, we may not generate significant product revenues and we may not become profitable. The degree of market acceptance of any product candidate, if approved for commercial sale, will depend on a number of factors, including but not limited to:
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the continued longevity of any market for which we develop a product;
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efficacy and potential advantages, including convenience and ease of administration, of our product compared to alternative treatments;
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the prevalence and severity of any side effects associated with our product relative to any alternative treatment;
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the willingness of the target patient population to try new therapies and of physicians to prescribe these therapies;
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the strength and effectiveness of sales, marketing and distribution support;
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the cost to patients of treatment regimens with our product in relation to alternative treatments; and
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the ability to obtain sufficient adequate reimbursement from third-parties as well as the impact of any agreements among any competitor and any third party payor limiting access to our product.
If the market opportunities for our product candidates are smaller than we believe they are or any approval we obtain is based on a narrower definition of the patient population, our business may suffer.
We currently focus on the discovery and development of product candidates for the treatment of serious viral diseases. Our eligible patient population, pricing estimates and available coverage and reimbursement may differ significantly from the actual market addressable by our product candidates. Our estimates of the number of people who have these diseases, the subset of people with these diseases who have the potential to benefit from treatment with our product candidates, and the market demand for our product candidates are based on our beliefs and analyses. These estimates have been derived from a variety of sources, including the scientific literature, current third-party data regarding prescriptions dispensed, and market research, and may prove to be incorrect. The number of patients may turn out to be lower than expected. Likewise, the potentially addressable patient population for our product candidates may be limited or may not be receptive to treatment with our product candidates, and new patients may become increasingly difficult to identify or access. Additionally, the availability of superior or competitive therapies from our competitors could negatively impact or eliminate market demand for our product candidates. If the market opportunities for our product candidates are smaller than we estimate, it could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
Disruptions at the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities caused by funding shortages, staffing limitations or global health concerns could hinder their ability to hire, retain or deploy key leadership and other personnel, or otherwise prevent new or modified products from being developed, approved or commercialized in a timely manner or at all, which could negatively impact our business.
The ability of the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities to review or approve new products can be affected by a variety of factors, including government budget and funding levels, statutory, regulatory, and policy changes, the FDA’s or foreign regulatory authorities’ ability to hire and retain key personnel and accept the payment of user fees, and other events that may otherwise affect the FDA’s or foreign regulatory authorities’ ability to perform routine functions including a rapid substantial influx of applications from numerous sponsors as occurred with COVID-19. Average review times at the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities have fluctuated in recent years as a result. In addition, government funding of other government agencies that fund research and development activities is subject to the political process, which is inherently fluid and unpredictable. Disruptions at the FDA and other agencies may also slow the time necessary for new drugs to be reviewed and/or approved by necessary government agencies, which would adversely affect our business. For example, in recent years, the US government has shut down several times and certain regulatory agencies, such as the FDA, have had to furlough critical FDA employees and stop critical activities.
Separately, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the FDA postponed most inspections of domestic and foreign manufacturing facilities at various points. If a prolonged government shutdown occurs, or funding shortages, staffing limitations, or renewed global health concerns prevent the FDA or other regulatory authorities from conducting their regular inspections, reviews, or other regulatory activities on a timely basis, it could significantly impact the ability of the FDA or other regulatory authorities to timely review and process our regulatory submissions, which could have a material adverse effect on our business.
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Our insurance policies are expensive and protect us only from some business risks, which leaves us exposed to significant uninsured liabilities.
Though we have insurance coverage for clinical trial product liability, we do not carry insurance for all categories of risk that our business may encounter. Some of the additional policies we currently maintain include general liability, property, auto, workers’ compensation, cybersecurity, umbrella, and directors’ and officers’ insurance.
As a part of the clinical trial regulatory submission process, in many countries, we are required to provide local insurance coverage covering claims that persons associated with the clinical trial may assert if they are or believe they are injured as a result of participation in the clinical trial or contact with the investigational product candidate being studied in the clinical trial. These local insurance policies can be time consuming to obtain which may delay the anticipated start of a clinical trial in a particular country. Additionally, these local insurance policies may not cover all the claims an injured party may assert and may be insufficient to cover the losses associated with our defense of the claim and any judgment against us that may result.
Any additional product liability insurance coverage we acquire in the future may not be sufficient to reimburse us for any expenses or losses we may suffer. Moreover, insurance coverage is becoming increasingly expensive and in the future we may not be able to maintain insurance coverage at a reasonable cost or in sufficient amounts to protect us against losses due to liability. If we obtain marketing approval for any of our product candidates, we intend to acquire insurance coverage to include the sale of commercial products; however, we may be unable to obtain product liability insurance on commercially reasonable terms or in adequate amounts. A successful product liability claim or series of claims brought against us could cause our stock price to decline and, if judgments are for claims not covered by or are in amounts that exceed our insurance coverage, could adversely affect our results of operations and business, including preventing or limiting the development and commercialization of any product candidates we develop. We do not carry specific biological or hazardous waste insurance coverage, and our property, casualty and general liability insurance policies specifically exclude coverage for damages and fines arising from biological or hazardous waste exposure or contamination. Accordingly, in the event of contamination or injury from biological or hazardous waste, we could be held liable for damages or be penalized with fines in an amount exceeding our resources, and our clinical trials or regulatory approvals could be suspended.
Operating as a public company has in the past and may in the future make it more difficult and more expensive for us to obtain director and officer liability insurance, and we may be required to accept reduced policy limits and coverage or incur substantially higher costs to obtain the same or similar coverage. As a result, it may be more difficult for us to attract and retain qualified people to serve on our board of directors, our board committees or as executive officers. We do not know if we will be able to maintain existing insurance with adequate levels of coverage. Any significant uninsured liability may require us to pay substantial amounts, which would adversely affect our cash and cash equivalents position and results of operations.
Our business and operations may suffer in the event of information technology system failures, cyberattacks, or deficiencies, which could materially affect our results.
Our information technology systems, as well as those of our CROs and other contractors and consultants, are vulnerable to attack, failure and damage from computer viruses and other malware (e.g., ransomware), unauthorized access or other cybersecurity attacks, malfeasance by external or internal parties, human error (e.g., social engineering, phishing), natural disasters (including hurricanes), terrorism, war, fire and telecommunication or electrical failures. In the ordinary course of our business, we directly or indirectly collect, store and transmit sensitive data, including intellectual property, confidential information, preclinical and clinical trial data, proprietary business information, personal data and personally identifiable health information of our clinical trial subjects and employees, in our data centers and on our networks, or on those of third parties. The secure processing, maintenance and transmission of this information is critical to our operations.
Despite security measures that we and our critical third parties (e.g., collaborators) implement, our information technology systems may be vulnerable to attacks by hackers or internal bad actors, or
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breached due to human error, a technical vulnerability, malfeasance or other disruptions. The risk of a security breach or disruption, particularly through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments, and cyber terrorists, has generally increased as the number, level of persistence, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. We also face increased cybersecurity risks due to our reliance on internet technology and the number of our employees who are working remotely, which may create additional opportunities for cybercriminals to exploit vulnerabilities. We may not be able to anticipate all types of security threats, nor may we be able to implement preventive measures effective against all such security threats. The techniques used by cybercriminals change frequently, may not be recognized until launched and can originate from a wide variety of sources, including outside groups such as external service providers, organized crime affiliates, terrorist organizations or hostile foreign governments or agencies. Because of this, we may also experience security breaches that may remain undetected for an extended period. Even if identified, we may be unable to adequately investigate or remediate incidents or breaches due to attackers increasingly using tools and techniques that are designed to circumvent controls, to avoid detection, and to remove or obfuscate forensic evidence. We cannot assure you that our data protection efforts and our investment in information technology will prevent significant breakdowns, data leakages or breaches in our systems or those of our CROs and other contractors and consultants or that any such significant breakdowns, data leakages or breaches will be timely discovered, disclosed (if applicable) and remediated.
We and certain of our service providers are from time to time subject to cyberattacks and security incidents. While we do not believe that we have experienced any significant system failure, accident or security breach to date, if such an event were to occur and cause interruptions in our operations, it could result in a material disruption of our product candidate development programs. For example, the loss of data from completed, ongoing or planned preclinical studies or clinical trials could result in delays in our regulatory approval efforts and significantly increase our costs to recover or reproduce the data. To the extent that any disruption or security breach were to result in a loss of or damage to our data or applications, or inappropriate disclosure of personal, confidential or proprietary information, we could incur liability and the further development of our product candidates could be delayed.
If a security breach or other incident were to result in the unauthorized access to or unauthorized use, disclosure, release or other processing of personal information, it may be necessary to notify individuals, governmental authorities, supervisory bodies, the media and other parties pursuant to privacy and security laws. Any such access, disclosure or other loss of information could result in legal claims or proceedings, liability under laws that protect the privacy of personal information and significant regulatory penalties, and such an event could disrupt our operations, damage our reputation and cause a loss of confidence in us and our ability to conduct clinical trials, which could adversely affect our reputation and delay our clinical development of our product candidates. Further, our insurance coverage may not be sufficient to cover the financial, legal, business or reputational losses that may result from an interruption or breach of our systems.
Risks Related to Healthcare Laws and Other Legal Compliance Matters
We are subject to extensive and costly government regulation.
Our product candidates will be subject to extensive and rigorous domestic government regulation, including regulation and oversight by the FDA, the CMS, other divisions of HHS, the US Department of Justice, state and local governments, and their respective equivalents outside of the US. The FDA regulates the research, development, preclinical and clinical testing, manufacture, safety, effectiveness, record-keeping, reporting, labeling, packaging, storage, approval, advertising, promotion, sale, distribution, import and export of pharmaceutical products. If our products are marketed abroad, they will also be subject to extensive regulation by foreign governments, whether or not they have obtained FDA approval. Such foreign regulation may be equally or more demanding than corresponding US regulation.
Government regulation substantially increases the cost and risk of researching, developing, manufacturing and, if approved, selling our products. The regulatory review and approval process, which includes preclinical testing and clinical trials of each product candidate, is lengthy, expensive and uncertain. We must obtain and maintain regulatory authorization to conduct clinical trials. We must obtain regulatory approval for each product we intend to market, and the manufacturing facilities used for the
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products must be inspected and meet legal requirements. Securing regulatory approval requires the submission of extensive preclinical and clinical data and other supporting information for each proposed therapeutic indication in order to establish the product’s safety and efficacy, potency and purity, for each intended use. The development and approval process takes many years, requires substantial resources, and may never lead to the approval of a product.
Even if we are able to obtain regulatory approval for a particular product, the approval may limit the indicated medical uses for the product, may otherwise limit our ability to promote, sell and distribute the product, may require that we conduct costly post-marketing surveillance, and/or may require that we conduct ongoing post-marketing studies. Material changes to an approved product, such as, for example, manufacturing changes or revised labeling, may require further regulatory review and approval. Once obtained, any approvals may be withdrawn, including, for example, if there is a later discovery of previously unknown problems with the product, such as a previously unknown safety issue.
If we, our consultants, CMOs, CROs or other vendors, fail to comply with applicable regulatory requirements at any stage during the regulatory process, such noncompliance could result in, among other things, delays in the approval of applications or supplements to approved applications; refusal of a regulatory authority, including the FDA, to review pending market approval applications or supplements to approved applications; warning letters; fines; import and/or export restrictions; product recalls or seizures; injunctions; total or partial suspension of production; civil penalties; withdrawals of previously approved marketing applications or licenses; recommendations by the FDA or other regulatory authorities against governmental contracts; and/or criminal prosecutions.
Moreover, our operations are broadly subject to an evolving regulatory environment. New and changing laws, regulations, executive orders and enforcement priorities can also create uncertainty about how such laws and regulations will be interpreted and applied, which may increase our costs or otherwise adversely impact our business and results of operations.
Enacted and future healthcare legislation and policies may increase the difficulty and cost for us to commercialize our product candidates and could adversely affect our business.
In the US, the EU and other jurisdictions, there have been, and we expect there will continue to be, a number of legislative and regulatory changes and proposed changes to the healthcare system that could prevent or delay marketing approval of our product candidates, restrict or regulate post-approval activities involving any product candidates for which we obtain marketing approval, impact pricing and reimbursement and impact our ability to sell any such products profitably. In particular, there have been and continue to be a number of initiatives at the US federal and state levels that seek to reduce healthcare costs and improve the quality of healthcare. In addition, new regulations and interpretations of existing healthcare statutes and regulations are frequently adopted.
In March 2010, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("ACA"), was enacted, which substantially changed the way healthcare is financed in the US by both governmental and private insurers. Among the provisions of the ACA, those of greatest importance to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries include the following:
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an annual, non-deductible fee payable by any entity that manufactures or imports certain branded prescription drugs and biologic agents (other than those designated as orphan drugs), which is apportioned among these entities according to their market share in certain government healthcare programs;
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increases and changes in the statutory minimum rebates a manufacturer must pay under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program;
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extension of a manufacturer’s Medicaid rebate liability to covered outpatient drugs dispensed to individuals who are enrolled in Medicaid managed care organizations;
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expansion of eligibility criteria for Medicaid programs by, among other things, allowing states to offer Medicaid coverage to certain individuals with income at or below 133% of the federal poverty level, thereby potentially increasing a manufacturer’s Medicaid rebate liability;
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a Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute to oversee, identify priorities in, and conduct comparative clinical effectiveness research, along with funding for such research; and
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establishment of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at CMS to test innovative payment and service delivery models to lower Medicare and Medicaid spending, potentially including prescription drug spending.
Since its enactment, there have been judicial, Congressional and executive challenges to certain aspects of the ACA. On June 17, 2021, the US Supreme Court dismissed the most recent judicial challenge to the ACA brought by several states without specifically ruling on the constitutionality of the ACA.
In addition, other legislative changes have been proposed and adopted in the US since the ACA was enacted. In August 2011, the Budget Control Act of 2011 imposed aggregate reductions of Medicare payments to providers, effective April 1, 2013 which, due to subsequent legislative amendments, will stay in effect through 2032. Further, on March 11, 2021 the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 was signed into law, which eliminated the statutory Medicaid drug rebate cap, beginning January 1, 2024. The rebate was previously capped at 100% of a drug’s average manufacturer price.
Moreover, payment methodologies may be subject to other changes in healthcare legislation and regulatory initiatives. For example, CMS may develop new payment and delivery models, such as outcomes-based reimbursement. In addition, recently there has been heightened governmental scrutiny over the manner in which manufacturers set prices for their marketed products, which has resulted in several US Congressional inquiries and proposed and enacted federal legislation designed to, among other things, bring more transparency to drug pricing, reduce the cost of prescription drugs under Medicare, and review the relationship between pricing and manufacturer patient programs. Most recently, on August 16, 2022, the IRA was signed into law. Among other things, the IRA requires manufacturers of certain drugs to engage in price negotiations with Medicare (beginning in 2026), with prices that can be negotiated subject to a cap; imposes rebates under Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D to penalize price increases that outpace inflation (first due in 2023); and replaces the Part D coverage gap discount program with a new discounting program (which began in 2025). The IRA permits the HHS Secretary to implement many of these provisions through guidance, as opposed to regulation, for the initial years. HHS has and will continue to issue and update guidance as these programs are implemented. CMS has published the negotiated prices for the initial ten drugs, which will first be effective in 2026, and the list of the subsequent 15 drugs that will be subject to negotiation, although the Medicare drug price negotiation program is currently subject to legal challenges. For that and other reasons, it is currently unclear how the IRA will be effectuated. We expect that additional US federal healthcare reform measures will be adopted in the future, any of which could limit the amounts that the US federal government will pay for healthcare products and services, which could result in reduced demand for our product candidates or additional pricing pressures.
Individual states in the US have also increasingly passed legislation and implemented regulations designed to control pharmaceutical and biological product pricing, including price or patient reimbursement constraints, discounts, restrictions on certain product access, and marketing cost disclosure, drug price reporting and other transparency measures, and, in some cases, designed to encourage importation from other countries and bulk purchasing. Some states have enacted legislation creating so-called prescription drug affordability boards, which ultimately may attempt to impose price limits on certain drugs in these states. Legally mandated price controls on payment amounts by third-party payors or other restrictions could harm our business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects. In addition, states and other regional healthcare authorities and individual hospitals are increasingly using bidding procedures to determine what pharmaceutical products and which suppliers will be included in their prescription drug and other healthcare programs. This could reduce the ultimate demand for our product candidates or put pressure on our product pricing.
In the EU, similar political, economic and regulatory developments may affect our ability to profitably commercialize our product candidates, if approved. In addition to continuing pressure on prices and cost containment measures, legislative developments at the EU or member state level may result in significant additional requirements or obstacles that may increase our operating costs. The delivery of healthcare in the EU, including the establishment and operation of health services and the pricing and reimbursement of medicines, is almost exclusively a matter for national, rather than EU, law and policy. National
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governments and health service providers have different priorities and approaches to the delivery of healthcare and the pricing and reimbursement of products in that context. In general, however, the healthcare budgetary constraints in most EU member states have resulted in restrictions on the pricing and reimbursement of medicines by relevant health service providers. Coupled with ever-increasing EU and national regulatory burdens on those wishing to develop and market products, this could prevent or delay marketing approval of our product candidates, restrict or regulate post-approval activities and affect our ability to commercialize our product candidates, if approved.
In markets outside of the US and the EU, reimbursement and healthcare payment systems vary significantly by country, and many countries have instituted price ceilings on specific products and therapies.
Enacted and future legislation and policies may increase the difficulty and cost for us to obtain marketing approval of our product candidates and could adversely affect our business.
In the US, legislative and regulatory proposals have been made to expand post-approval requirements and restrict sales and promotional activities for pharmaceutical products. We cannot be sure whether additional legislative changes will be enacted, or whether the FDA’s regulations, guidance or interpretations will be changed, or what the impact of such changes on the marketing approvals of our product candidates, if any, may be. In addition, increased scrutiny by Congress of the FDA’s approval process may significantly delay or prevent marketing approval, as well as subject us to more stringent product labeling and post-marketing testing and other requirements.
We cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative action in the US, the EU or any other jurisdiction. If we or any third parties we may engage are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we or such third parties are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may be subject to enforcement action and we may not achieve or sustain profitability.
Even if we obtain regulatory approval for a product candidate, our products will remain subject to regulatory scrutiny and post-marketing requirements.
Any regulatory approvals that we may receive for our product candidates will require the submission of reports to regulatory authorities and surveillance to monitor the safety and efficacy of the product candidate, may contain significant limitations related to use restrictions for groups specified by, among other things, age or medical condition, warnings, precautions or contraindications, and may include burdensome post-approval study or risk management requirements. For example, the FDA may require a REMS in order to approve our product candidates, which could entail requirements for a medication guide, physician training and communication plans or additional elements to ensure safe use, such as restricted distribution methods, patient registries and other risk minimization tools. In addition, if any of our product candidates is approved, it will be subject to ongoing regulatory requirements for manufacturing, labeling, packaging, storage, advertising, promotion, sampling, record-keeping, conduct of post-marketing studies and submission of safety, efficacy, and other post-market information, including both federal and state requirements in the US and requirements of comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Manufacturers and manufacturers’ facilities are required to comply with extensive FDA and comparable foreign regulatory authority requirements, including ensuring that quality control and manufacturing procedures conform to cGMP and similar regulations. As such, we and our CMOs will be subject to continual review and inspections to assess compliance with cGMP and similar requirements and adherence to commitments made in any approved marketing application. Accordingly, we and others with whom we work must continue to expend time, money and effort in all areas of regulatory compliance, including manufacturing, production and quality control.
If the FDA or another regulatory authority discovers previously unknown problems with a product, such as adverse events of unanticipated severity or frequency, or problems with the facility where the product is manufactured, or disagrees with the promotion, marketing or labeling of a product, such regulatory authorities may impose restrictions on that product or us, including requiring withdrawal of the product from the market. If we fail to comply with applicable regulatory requirements, a regulatory authority or enforcement authority may, among other things:
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issue warning letters;
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impose civil or criminal penalties;
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suspend or withdraw regulatory approval;
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suspend any of our clinical trials;
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refuse to approve pending applications or supplements to approved applications submitted by us;
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impose restrictions on our operations, including closing our CMOs facilities; or
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seize or detain products, or require a product recall.
Any government investigation of alleged violations of law could require us to expend significant time and resources in response and could generate negative publicity. Any failure to comply with ongoing regulatory requirements may adversely affect our ability to commercialize and generate revenue from our products. If regulatory sanctions are applied or if any regulatory approval is withdrawn, our business will be seriously harmed.
Moreover, the policies of the FDA and of other regulatory authorities may change, and additional government regulations may be enacted that could prevent, limit or delay regulatory approval of our product candidates. We cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative or executive action, either in the US or abroad. If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may be subject to enforcement action, and we may not achieve or sustain profitability.
The FDA and other regulatory agencies actively enforce the laws and regulations prohibiting the promotion of off-label uses.
If any of our product candidates are approved and we are found to have improperly promoted off-label uses of those products, we may become subject to significant liability. The FDA and other regulatory agencies strictly regulate the promotional claims that may be made about prescription products, such as our product candidates, if approved. In particular, a product may not be promoted for uses that are not approved by the FDA or such other regulatory agencies as reflected in the product’s approved labeling. If we receive marketing approval for a product candidate, physicians may nevertheless prescribe it to their patients in a manner that is inconsistent with the approved label. If we are found to have promoted such off-label uses, we may become subject to significant liability. The US federal government has levied large civil and criminal fines against companies for alleged improper promotion of off-label use and has enjoined several companies from engaging in off-label promotion. The FDA has also requested that companies enter into consent decrees or permanent injunctions under which specified promotional conduct is changed or curtailed. If we cannot successfully manage the promotion of our product candidates, if approved, we could become subject to significant liability, which would materially adversely affect our business and financial condition.
Our business operations and current and future relationships with clinical trial investigators, healthcare professionals, consultants, third-party payors, patient organizations and customers will be subject to applicable healthcare regulatory laws, which could expose us to penalties.
Our business operations and current and future arrangements with clinical trial investigators, other healthcare professionals, consultants, third-party payors, patient organizations and customers, may expose us to broadly applicable fraud and abuse and other healthcare laws and regulations. These laws may constrain the business or financial arrangements and relationships through which we conduct our operations, including how we research, and if approved, market, sell and distribute our product candidates. Such laws include but are not limited to:
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the US federal Anti-Kickback Statute, which makes it illegal for any person to knowingly and willfully solicit, offer, receive, pay or provide any remuneration (including any kickback, bribe or certain rebate), directly or indirectly, overtly or covertly, in cash or in kind, to induce or reward, or in return for, either the referral of an individual for, or the purchase, lease, order or recommendation of, any good, facility, item or service, for which payment may be made, in
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whole or in part, under US federal and state healthcare programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. A person or entity does not need to have actual knowledge of the statute or specific intent to violate it in order to have committed a violation;
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the US federal civil and criminal false claims laws, including the civil False Claims Act (“FCA”), which prohibit individuals or entities from, among other things, knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, to the US federal government, claims for payment or approval that are false, fictitious or fraudulent, knowingly making, using or causing to be made or used, a false record or statement material to a false or fraudulent claim, or from knowingly making a false statement to avoid, decrease or conceal an obligation to pay money to the US federal government. Manufacturers can be held liable under the FCA even when they do not submit claims directly to government payors if they are deemed to “cause” the submission of false or fraudulent claims. The government may deem manufacturers to have “caused” the submission of false or fraudulent claims by, for example, providing inaccurate billing or coding information to customers or promoting a product off-label. Companies that submit claims directly to payors may also be liable under the FCA for the direct submission of such claims. In addition, the government may assert that a claim including items or services resulting from a violation of the federal Anti-Kickback Statute constitutes a false or fraudulent claim for purposes of the FCA. The FCA also permits a private individual acting as a “whistleblower” to bring actions on behalf of the federal government alleging violations of the FCA and to share in any monetary recovery. When an entity is determined to have violated the FCA, the government may impose civil fines and penalties for each false claim, plus treble damages, and exclude the entity from participation in Medicare, Medicaid and other federal healthcare programs;
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the US federal civil monetary penalties laws, which impose civil fines for, among other things, the offering or transfer of remuneration to a Medicare or state healthcare program beneficiary if the person knows or should know it is likely to influence the beneficiary’s selection of a particular provider, practitioner or supplier of services reimbursable by Medicare or a state healthcare program, unless an exception applies;
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the US federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (“HIPAA”) and its implementing regulations, which created additional federal criminal statutes that prohibit knowingly and willfully executing, or attempting to execute, a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program or obtain, by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, any of the money or property owned by, or under the custody or control of, any healthcare benefit program, regardless of the payor (e.g., public or private) and knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up by any trick or device a material fact or making any materially false statements in connection with the delivery of, or payment for, healthcare benefits, items or services relating to healthcare matters. Similar to the US federal Anti-Kickback Statute, a person or entity does not need to have actual knowledge of the statute or specific intent to violate it in order to have committed a violation;
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the FDCA, which prohibits, among other things, the adulteration or misbranding of drugs, biologics and medical devices;
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the US federal Physician Payments Sunshine Act and its implementing regulations, which requires certain manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologics and medical supplies that are reimbursable under Medicare, Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program to report annually to the government information related to certain payments and other transfers of value to physicians (defined to include doctors, dentists, optometrists, podiatrists and chiropractors), certain non-physician practitioners (physician assistants, nurse practitioners, clinical nurse specialists, certified nurse anesthetists, anesthesiologist assistants and certified nurse midwives), and teaching hospitals, as well as ownership and investment interests held by the physicians described above and their immediate family members;
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US federal price reporting laws, which require manufacturers to calculate and report complex pricing metrics to government programs, where reported prices may be used in the calculation of reimbursement and/or discounts on approved products;
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US federal consumer protection and unfair competition laws, which broadly regulate marketplace activities and activities that potentially harm consumers;
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analogous US state laws and regulations, including: state anti-kickback and false claims laws, which may apply to our business practices, including but not limited to, research, distribution, sales and marketing arrangements and claims involving healthcare items or services reimbursed by any third-party payor, including private insurers; state laws that require pharmaceutical companies to comply with the pharmaceutical industry’s voluntary compliance guidelines and the relevant compliance guidance promulgated by the US federal government, or otherwise restrict payments that may be made to healthcare providers and other potential referral sources; state laws and regulations that require drug manufacturers to file reports relating to pricing and marketing information, which requires tracking gifts and other remuneration and items of value provided to healthcare professionals and entities; and state and local laws that require the registration of pharmaceutical sales representatives; and
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similar healthcare laws and regulations in the EU and other jurisdictions, including reporting requirements detailing interactions with and payments to healthcare providers.
Ensuring that our internal operations and future business arrangements with third parties comply with applicable healthcare laws and regulations will involve substantial costs. It is possible that governmental authorities will conclude that our business practices, including our relationships with physicians and other healthcare providers, some of whom are compensated in the form of stock or stock options for services provided to us and may be in the position to influence the ordering of or use of our product candidates, if approved, may not comply with current or future statutes, regulations, agency guidance or case law involving applicable fraud and abuse or other healthcare laws and regulations. If our operations are found to be in violation of any of the laws described above or any other governmental laws and regulations that may apply to us, we may be subject to significant penalties, including civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, fines, exclusion from government-funded healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid or similar programs in other countries or jurisdictions, integrity oversight and reporting obligations to resolve allegations of non-compliance, disgorgement, individual imprisonment, contractual damages, reputational harm, diminished profits and the curtailment or restructuring of our operations. If any of the physicians or other providers or entities with whom we expect to do business are found to not be in compliance with applicable laws, they may be subject to criminal, civil or administrative sanctions, including exclusions from government funded healthcare programs and imprisonment, which could affect our ability to operate our business. Further, defending against any such actions can be costly, time-consuming and may require significant personnel resources. Therefore, even if we are successful in defending against any such actions that may be brought against us, our business may be impaired.
We are subject to governmental regulation and other legal obligations, particularly related to privacy, data protection and information security, and we are subject to consumer protection laws that regulate our marketing practices and prohibit unfair or deceptive acts or practices. Our actual or perceived failure to comply with such obligations could harm our business.
We are subject to diverse laws and regulations relating to data privacy and security. New privacy rules are being enacted in the US and globally, and existing ones are being updated and strengthened. For example, the California Consumer Privacy Act,as amended by the California Privacy Rights Act (collectively, the “CCPA”), requires covered businesses that process the personal information of California residents to, among other things: (i) provide certain disclosures to California residents regarding the business’s collection, use, and disclosure of their personal information; (ii) receive and respond to requests from California residents to access, delete, and correct their personal information, or to opt out of certain disclosures of their personal information; and (iii) enter into specific contractual provisions with service providers that process California resident personal information on the business’s behalf. Additional compliance investment and potential business process changes may be required. Similar laws have passed in other states, and are continuing to be proposed at the state and federal level, reflecting a trend toward more stringent privacy legislation in the US. The enactment of such laws could have potentially conflicting requirements that would make compliance challenging. Any liability from failure to comply with the requirements of applicable data privacy and data protection laws could adversely affect our financial condition.
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Complying with these numerous, complex and often changing regulations is expensive and difficult, and failure to comply with any privacy laws or data security laws or any security incident or breach involving the misappropriation, loss or other unauthorized processing, use or disclosure of sensitive or confidential patient, consumer or other personal information, whether by us, one of our CROs or business associates or another third-party, could adversely affect our business, our operations abroad, financial condition and results of operations. Such adverse effects may include, but are not limited to: investigation costs; material fines and penalties; compensatory, special, punitive and statutory damages; litigation; consent orders regarding our privacy and security practices; requirements that we provide notices, credit monitoring services and/or credit restoration services or other relevant services to impacted individuals; adverse actions against our licenses to do business; reputational damage; and injunctive relief.
Our operations abroad may also be subject to increased scrutiny or attention from data protection authorities. For example, the EU General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") went into effect in May 2018, and imposes strict requirements for processing the personal data of individuals within the EEA or in the context of our activities in the EEA. The GDPR and related implementing laws in individual EU member states govern the collection and use of health data and other personal data in the EU including the personal data processed by companies outside the EU in connection with the offering of goods or services to individuals in the EU or the monitoring of their behavior (including in the context of clinical trials). Companies that must comply with the GDPR face increased compliance obligations and risk, including more robust regulatory enforcement of data protection requirements and potential fines for noncompliance of up to €20 million or 4% of the annual global revenues of the noncompliant company, whichever is greater. In addition to the foregoing, a breach of the GDPR could result in regulatory investigations, reputational damage, orders to cease / change our processing of our data, enforcement notices, and/ or assessment notices (for a compulsory audit). Companies may also face civil claims including representative actions and other class action type litigation (where individuals have suffered harm), potentially amounting to significant compensation or damages liabilities, as well as associated costs, diversion of internal resources, and reputational harm.
Among other requirements, the GDPR regulates transfers of personal data subject to the GDPR to third countries that have not been found to provide adequate protection to such personal data, including the US, and the efficacy and longevity of current transfer mechanisms between the EEA, and the US remains uncertain. On July 10, 2023, the European Commission adopted its Adequacy Decision in relation to the new EU-US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”), rendering the DPF effective as a GDPR transfer mechanism to US entities self-certified under the DPF. As supervisory authorities issue further guidance on personal data export mechanisms, including circumstances where the SCCs cannot be used, and/or start taking enforcement action, we could suffer additional costs, complaints and/or regulatory investigations or fines, and/or if we are otherwise unable to transfer personal data between and among countries and regions in which we operate, it could affect the manner in which we conduct our business, the geographical location or segregation of our relevant systems and operations, and could adversely affect our financial results.
In addition, since January 1, 2021, after the end of the transition period following the UK’s departure from the EU, we are also subject to the UK data protection regime (the UK GDPR and UK Data Protection Act 2018), which imposes separate but similar obligations to those under the GDPR and comparable penalties, including fines of up to £17.5 million or 4% of a noncompliant company’s global annual revenue for the preceding financial year, whichever is greater. On October 12, 2023, the UK Extension to the DPF came into effect (as approved by the UK Government), as a data transfer mechanism from the UK to US entities self-certified under the DPF. As we continue to expand into other foreign countries and jurisdictions, we may be subject to additional laws and regulations that may affect how we conduct business.
We cannot assure you that our CROs or other third-party service providers with access to our or our suppliers’, trial patients’, investigators and clinical site employees’ personally identifiable and other sensitive or confidential information in relation to which we are responsible will not breach contractual obligations imposed by us, or that they will not experience data security breaches or attempts thereof, which could have a corresponding effect on our business, including putting us in breach of our obligations under privacy laws and regulations and/or which could in turn adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. We cannot assure you that our contractual measures and our own
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privacy and security-related safeguards will protect us from the risks associated with the third-party processing, use, storage and transmission of such information. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
We face potential liability related to the privacy of health information we obtain from clinical trials sponsored by us.
Most healthcare providers in the US, including research institutions from which we obtain patient health information, are subject to privacy and security regulations promulgated under HIPAA, as amended by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act. We do not believe that we are currently acting as a covered entity or business associate under HIPAA and thus are not directly subject to its requirements or penalties. However, any person may be prosecuted under HIPAA’s criminal provisions either directly or under aiding-and-abetting or conspiracy principles. Consequently, depending on the facts and circumstances, we could face substantial criminal penalties if we knowingly receive individually identifiable health information from a HIPAA-covered healthcare provider or research institution that has not satisfied HIPAA’s requirements for disclosure of individually identifiable health information. Even when HIPAA does not apply, according to the Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”), failing to take appropriate steps to keep consumers’ personal information secure constitutes unfair acts or practices in or affecting commerce in violation of the Federal Trade Commission Act. The FTC expects a company’s data security measures to be reasonable and appropriate in light of the sensitivity and volume of consumer information it holds, the size and complexity of its business, and the cost of available tools to improve security and reduce vulnerabilities. Individually identifiable health information is considered sensitive data that merits stronger safeguards.
We, our CROs and third-party service providers receive and maintain sensitive information, including health-related information, that we receive throughout the clinical trial process, in the course of our research collaborations. As such, we may also be subject to state laws, requiring notification of affected individuals and state regulators in the event of a breach of personal information, which is a broader class of information than the health information protected by HIPAA. Our clinical trial programs outside the US may implicate international data protection laws, including the UK GDPR, GDPR and legislation of the EU member states implementing it. In addition, the EU imposes obligations on the use of data generated from clinical trials and enables European patients to have the opportunity to access their personal data processed in the context of clinical trials.
Our activities outside the US impose additional compliance requirements and generate additional risks of enforcement for noncompliance. Failure by our CROs and other third-party contractors to comply with the strict rules on the transfer of personal data outside of the EU into the US may result in the imposition of criminal and administrative sanctions on such collaborators, which could adversely affect our business. Furthermore, certain health privacy laws, data breach notification laws, consumer protection laws and genetic testing laws may apply directly to our operations and/or those of our collaborators and may impose restrictions on our collection, use and dissemination of individuals’ health information.
Moreover, patients about whom we or our collaborators obtain health information, as well as the providers who share this information with us, may have statutory or contractual rights that limit our ability to use and disclose the information. We may be required to expend significant capital and other resources to ensure ongoing compliance with applicable privacy and data security laws. Claims that we have violated individuals’ privacy rights or breached our contractual obligations, even if we are not found liable, could be expensive and time-consuming to defend and could result in adverse publicity that could harm our business.
If we or third-party CMOs, CROs or other contractors or consultants fail to comply with applicable federal, state or foreign regulatory privacy requirements, we could be subject to a range of regulatory actions that could affect our or our contractors’ ability to develop and commercialize our product candidates and could harm or prevent sales of any affected products that we are able to commercialize, or could substantially increase the costs and expenses of developing, commercializing and marketing our products. Any threatened or actual government enforcement action could also generate adverse publicity and require that we devote substantial resources that could otherwise be used in other aspects of our business. Increasing use of social media could give rise to liability, breaches of data security or reputational
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damage. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
We are subject to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, and we may become exposed to liability and substantial expenses in connection with environmental compliance or remediation activities.
Our operations, including our development, testing and manufacturing activities, are subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws and regulations. These laws and regulations govern, among other things, the controlled use, handling, release and disposal of and the maintenance of a registry for, hazardous materials and biological materials, such as chemical solvents, human cells, carcinogenic compounds, mutagenic compounds and compounds that have a toxic effect on reproduction, laboratory procedures and exposure to blood-borne pathogens. If we fail to comply with such laws and regulations, we could be subject to fines or other sanctions. Moreover, certain environmental laws may impose liability without regard to fault or legality of the action at the time of its occurrence.
As with other companies engaged in activities similar to ours, we face a risk of environmental liability inherent in our current and historical activities, including liability relating to releases of or exposure to hazardous or biological materials. Environmental, health and safety laws and regulations are becoming more stringent. We may be required to incur substantial expenses in connection with future environmental compliance or remediation activities, in which case, the production efforts of our third-party manufacturers or our development efforts may be interrupted or delayed.
We and our employees are increasingly utilizing social media tools as a means of communication both internally and externally.
Despite our efforts to monitor evolving social media communication guidelines and comply with applicable rules, there is risk that the use of social media by us or our employees to communicate about our product candidates or business may cause us to be found in violation of applicable requirements. In addition, our employees may knowingly or inadvertently make use of social media in ways that may not comply with applicable laws and regulations, our policies and other legal or contractual requirements, which may give rise to regulatory enforcement action, liability, lead to the loss of trade secrets or other intellectual property or result in public exposure of personal information of our employees, clinical trial patients, customers and others. Furthermore, negative posts or comments about us or our product candidates in social media could seriously damage our reputation, brand image and goodwill. Any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition and could adversely affect the price of our common stock.
Risks Related to Commercialization
Developments by competitors may render our products or technologies obsolete or non-competitive or may reduce the size of our markets.
Our industry is characterized by extensive research and development efforts, rapid developments in technologies, intense competition and a strong emphasis on proprietary products. We expect our product candidates to face intense competition with existing products and increasing competition as new products enter the relevant markets and advanced technologies become available.
We face potential competition from many different sources, including pharmaceutical, biotechnology and specialty pharmaceutical companies. Academic research institutions, governmental agencies and public and private institutions are also potential sources of competitive products and technologies. Our competitors may have or may develop superior technologies or approaches, which may provide them with competitive advantages. Many of these competitors have products already approved or in development in the therapeutic categories that we are targeting with our product candidates. Either alone or together with their collaborative partners, many of these competitors operate larger research and development programs and have substantially greater financial resources and access to larger pools of capital, including in some cases US government funding, than we do.
Additionally, many of these competitors have greater experience in:
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developing product candidates;
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undertaking preclinical testing and clinical trials;
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obtaining NDA approval by the FDA and comparable approvals of product candidates from foreign regulatory authorities;
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formulating and manufacturing products; and
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launching, marketing and selling products.
If these competitors access the marketplace before we do with safer, more effective, or less expensive therapeutics or vaccines, our product candidates, if approved for commercialization, may not be profitable to sell or worthwhile to continue to develop. Technology in the pharmaceutical industry has undergone rapid and significant change, and we expect that it will continue to do so. Any compounds, products or processes that we develop may become obsolete or uneconomical before we recover any expenses incurred in connection with their development. The success of our product candidates will depend upon factors such as product efficacy, safety, reliability, availability, timing, scope of regulatory approval, acceptance and price, among other things. Other important factors to our success include speed in developing product candidates, completing clinical development and laboratory testing, obtaining regulatory approvals and manufacturing and selling commercial quantities of potential products.
For the diseases that we are targeting, significant competition exists from approved and authorized oral treatments as well as other treatments in development. The approved drugs, particularly for HCV, are well-established products and are widely-accepted by physicians, patients and third-party payors.
Our HCV product candidate, if approved, is expected to compete directly or indirectly with existing products. For example, if we successfully develop and receive marketing approval for our HCV product candidate, we anticipate that we will face competition from currently approved oral antiviral HCV products that are well established and widely accepted by physicians, patients and third-party payors, including products marketed and sold by Gilead Sciences, Asegua Therapeutics, a wholly owned subsidiary of Gilead Sciences, and AbbVie. Even if approved and commercialized, our HCV product candidate may fail to achieve market acceptance with hospitals, physicians, patients or third-party payors. Hospitals, physicians, patients or third-party payors may conclude that our product is are less safe or effective or otherwise less attractive than existing drugs. If our HCV product candidate or other future product candidates, if any, do not receive market acceptance for any reason, our revenue potential would be diminished, which would materially adversely affect our ability to become profitable. Other product candidates, if any, may also compete with existing products in a similar manner.
Many of our competitors have substantially greater capital resources, access to larger pools of capital, robust product candidate pipelines, established presence in the market, deep and broad commercial infrastructures and greater expertise in research and development, manufacturing, preclinical and clinical testing, obtaining regulatory approvals and reimbursement and marketing approved products than we do. As a result, our competitors may be able to maintain market share or achieve product commercialization or patent or other intellectual property protection earlier than we can. For example, in each of May 2023 and October 2024, the US Patent and Trademark Office (“USPTO”) granted Gilead Sciences patents in the US that may cover our compound bemnifosbuvir. If Gilead Sciences asserts either of these patents in an infringement suit, we may not be successful in convincing a trial court that the patent is invalid and unenforceable. In that circumstance, we would need to obtain a license from Gilead Sciences, which may not be available on reasonable terms, if at all. If a license is required and we are unable to obtain such license, commercialization of approved product candidates, if any, using bemnifosbuvir may not be able to continue without infringement, which could result in significant cost or prevent us from commercializing bemnifosbuvir or regimens containing bemnifosbuvir such as our HCV product candidate.
Smaller or early-stage companies may also prove to be significant competitors, particularly through collaborative arrangements with large and established companies. These competitors also compete with us in recruiting and retaining qualified clinical, regulatory, scientific, sales, marketing and management personnel and establishing clinical trial sites and patient registration for clinical trials, as well as in acquiring technologies complementary to, or necessary for, our programs. Our commercial opportunity could be reduced or eliminated if our competitors develop and commercialize products that are safer,
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more effective, have fewer or less severe side effects, are more convenient, or are less expensive than any products that we may develop or that would render any products that we may develop obsolete or noncompetitive, which would have a material adverse effect on our business and operations.
The successful commercialization of our product candidates will depend in part on the extent to which governmental authorities and health insurers establish coverage, adequate reimbursement levels and pricing policies. Failure to obtain or maintain coverage and adequate reimbursement for our product candidates, if approved, could limit our ability to market those products and decrease our ability to generate product revenue.
There is significant uncertainty related to the insurance coverage and reimbursement of newly approved products. Our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates will depend in part on the extent to which coverage and adequate reimbursement for these products and related treatments will be available from government health administration authorities, private health insurers and other organizations. Government authorities and other third-party payors, such as private health insurers and health maintenance organizations, decide which medications they will pay for and establish reimbursement levels. The availability of coverage and extent of reimbursement by governmental and private payors is essential for most patients to be able to afford treatments.
Third-party payors increasingly are challenging prices charged for pharmaceutical products and services, and many third-party payors may refuse to provide coverage and reimbursement for particular drugs and biologics when an equivalent generic drug, biosimilar or a less expensive therapy is available. It is possible that a third-party payor may consider our product candidates as substitutable and only offer to reimburse patients for the less expensive product. Even if we show improved efficacy or improved convenience of administration with our product candidates, pricing of existing third-party therapeutics may limit the amount we will be able to charge for our product candidates. Payors may deny or revoke the reimbursement status of a given product or establish prices for new or existing marketed products at levels that are too low to enable us to realize an appropriate return on our investment in our product candidates. If reimbursement is not available or is available only at limited levels, we may not be able to successfully commercialize our product candidates and may not be able to obtain a satisfactory financial return on our product candidates.
In the US, third-party payors, including private and governmental payors, such as the Medicare and Medicaid programs, play an important role in determining the extent to which new drugs and biologics will be covered and reimbursed. The Medicare program is increasingly used as a model for how private and other governmental payors develop their coverage and reimbursement policies for new drugs. However, no uniform policy for coverage and reimbursement for products exists among third-party payors in the US. Therefore, coverage and reimbursement for products can differ significantly from payor to payor. As a result, the coverage determination process is often a time-consuming and costly process that will require us to provide scientific and clinical support for the use of our product candidates to each payor separately, with no assurance that coverage and adequate reimbursement will be applied consistently or obtained in the first instance. Some third-party payors may require pre-approval of coverage for new or innovative drug therapies before they will reimburse healthcare providers who use such therapies. Furthermore, rules and regulations regarding reimbursement change frequently, in some cases on short notice, and we believe that changes in these rules and regulations are likely. We cannot predict at this time what third-party payors will decide with respect to the coverage and reimbursement for our product candidates.
Outside the US, international operations are generally subject to extensive governmental price controls and other market regulations, and we believe the increasing emphasis on cost-containment initiatives in the EU and other jurisdictions have and will continue to put pressure on the pricing and usage of our product candidates. In many countries, the prices of medical products are subject to varying price control mechanisms as part of national health systems. Other countries allow companies to fix their own prices for medical products, but monitor and control company profits. Additional foreign price controls or other changes in pricing regulation could restrict the amount that we are able to charge for our product candidates. Accordingly, in markets outside the US, the reimbursement for our product candidates may be reduced compared with the US and may be insufficient to generate commercially reasonable revenue and profits.
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